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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Local Energy Decay For Non-Stationary Damped Wave Operators, Nicholas Dj Arsenault Jan 2026

Local Energy Decay For Non-Stationary Damped Wave Operators, Nicholas Dj Arsenault

Theses and Dissertations--Mathematics

This work establishes integrated local energy decay (ILED) estimates for the damped wave equation on certain non-stationary spacetimes. The main technical result is a high frequency estimate that holds in great generality, provided that null geodesics trapped in a compact region are sufficiently damped. This is combined with low- and medium-frequency estimates to establish full local energy decay. We conclude by providing a counterexample where the damping assumption fails and local energy decay does not hold.


Understanding Möbius Inversion As Composite Of Dual Pairs, Isaac B. Kochmaan Jan 2026

Understanding Möbius Inversion As Composite Of Dual Pairs, Isaac B. Kochmaan

Theses and Dissertations--Mathematics

Möbius inversion is a well-studied computational tool in number theory and combinatorics, but it exhibits a pattern which may be familiar to those who study categorical traces. In 2016, Kate Ponto and Michael Shulman characterized duality and traces in the bicategory of profunctors for a particularly nice class of one-cells. We extend these results. Consequently, we construct, for a given poset, a profunctor whose Euler characteristic is the Möbius function of said poset. In light of this, we propose a categorical notion of Möbius inversion.


Exploring The Limitations Of Substrate Scope In Dimethylallyltryptophan Synthases, Evan T. Miller Jan 2026

Exploring The Limitations Of Substrate Scope In Dimethylallyltryptophan Synthases, Evan T. Miller

Theses and Dissertations--Pharmacy

Natural products (NPs), are the largest source of bioactive compounds in Nature, and are essential to the treatment of human disease. Nearly 50% of drugs approved for use from 1981 to 2019 owe some aspect of their development to NPs, either in terms of their structure, pharmacophore, or mechanism of action. However, NPs are difficult to structurally optimize. Chemoenzymatic methods for NP derivatization have been increasingly seen as practical alternatives to traditional synthetic methods. Prenyltransferases (PTs) are involved in the primary and secondary metabolism of plants, bacteria, and fungi, and they are key enzymes in the biosynthesis of many clinically …


Using Camera-Based Unmarked Spatial Capture-Recapture Modeling To Estimate Reintroduced Elk (Cervus Canadensis) Population Parameters And Distribution In Southeastern Kentucky, Claire Marie Muia Jan 2026

Using Camera-Based Unmarked Spatial Capture-Recapture Modeling To Estimate Reintroduced Elk (Cervus Canadensis) Population Parameters And Distribution In Southeastern Kentucky, Claire Marie Muia

Theses and Dissertations--Forestry and Natural Resources

Estimation of population parameters is important for wildlife management decisions. Elk reintroduced to southeastern Kentucky experienced early irruptive population growth and are currently monitored using a statewide harvest-based statistical population reconstruction model (SPR) across the Kentucky Elk Restoration Zone (KERZ). Because the SPR model is spatially coarse and difficult to scale to the smaller management units comprising the KERZ, we conducted a spatially explicit capture-recapture study using a clustered camera-trapping array deployed for 10 weeks from June–August 2024 to estimate elk population parameters within Management Unit 4. Due to a lack of resights of GPS-marked elk, population parameters were estimated …


Barycentric Subdivision And Hyperbolic Geometry, Hannah Elisabeth Steger Jan 2026

Barycentric Subdivision And Hyperbolic Geometry, Hannah Elisabeth Steger

Dissertations and Theses

Barycentric subdivision of a triangle is the geometrical process of repeatedly subdividing a triangle by connecting the midpoints of the sides to the opposite vertices. The transformations which determine this subdivision form a group acting on the hyperbolic plane, action which we will show is topologically transitive. We find specific cases when the barycentric subdivision process leads to flat triangles (all vertices on the x-axis) and, on the contrary, situations when shapes are positioned on an orbit that is a circle, hence never becoming flat. We will also analyse this process when the starting triangle is already flat and we …


Supplementary Material For Experimental Constraints On Rock And Mineral Alteration By Magmatic Gas: Implications For Mars (Safari Et Al., In Review), Natalie Zimmermann Jan 2026

Supplementary Material For Experimental Constraints On Rock And Mineral Alteration By Magmatic Gas: Implications For Mars (Safari Et Al., In Review), Natalie Zimmermann

Geosciences Research Data

This file contains supplemental data for the JGR manuscript Experimental Constraints on Rock and Mineral Alteration by Magmatic Gas: Implications for Mars (Safari et al., in review). It includes SEM images and associated EDS spectra of altered targets and phase coatings produced in gas-rock alteration experiments.


Iere Annual Report 2026, Erin Largo-Wight, Heather Barnes Truelove, Kelly Rhoden, Jessica Barnes, Lauren Canady, Nicole Lowe, Ruby Cox, Sydney Barrett, Kathleen Hutton Jan 2026

Iere Annual Report 2026, Erin Largo-Wight, Heather Barnes Truelove, Kelly Rhoden, Jessica Barnes, Lauren Canady, Nicole Lowe, Ruby Cox, Sydney Barrett, Kathleen Hutton

Annual Reports

2026 Annual Report of the Institute for Environmental Research and Education


Counseling Professionals' Perspectives On Ai Integration In Education And Supervision: A Concept Mapping Study, Hank Crofford, Elif Bor, Gülşah Kemer Jan 2026

Counseling Professionals' Perspectives On Ai Integration In Education And Supervision: A Concept Mapping Study, Hank Crofford, Elif Bor, Gülşah Kemer

Counseling & Human Services Faculty Publications

The rapid emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has raised important questions about how new technologies will shape professional norms and practices in counseling. The purpose of this study was to understand how counseling professionals expect AI to be integrated into counselor education and supervision (CES). Using a mixed‐methods concept mapping design, 31 participants generated and sorted statements about the potential roles, benefits, and concerns associated with AI in the profession. Participants represented diverse counseling roles, including counselor educators, licensed professional counselors, supervisors, master's‐ and doctoral‐level trainees, and other counseling‐related professionals. Standard concept mapping procedures were conducted using R, resulting in …


Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou Jan 2026

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …


Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas Jan 2026

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …


Microbial Community Structure In Global Soils, Matthew Jabro Jan 2026

Microbial Community Structure In Global Soils, Matthew Jabro

CMC Senior Theses

Soil harbors the most diverse microbial communities on Earth, yet whether predictable community types exist across biomes and whether taxonomic composition encodes habitat of origin remain open questions at global scale. This thesis addresses both questions by applying unsupervised clustering and supervised classification to transformed 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) amplicon profiles from two independent datasets: the global topsoil survey of Bahram et al. (193 samples) and the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP) soil subset of Thompson et al. (2,209 samples). Application of a sample clustering method based on a mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models (MixGGM) identified 19 clusters in the topsoil …


Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin Jan 2026

Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ …


Analysis Of Δ¹¹B As A Seawater Ph Proxy: Comparing Ocean Circulation Inverse Model Output With Marine Calcifier Geochemistry, Jesse I. Dong Jan 2026

Analysis Of Δ¹¹B As A Seawater Ph Proxy: Comparing Ocean Circulation Inverse Model Output With Marine Calcifier Geochemistry, Jesse I. Dong

CMC Senior Theses

Increasing anthropogenic carbon flux into the oceans decreases seawater pH, alters dissolved inorganic carbon speciation, and reduces biogenic calcification. The marine calcifiers— specifically corals and coralline algae—incorporate elements from surrounding seawater into their carbonate structures, which preserve past records of ocean carbon chemistry. In particular, boron in biogenic carbonate is a potentially valuable proxy for historical ocean pH across human timescales. Within seawater, boron primarily exists as boric acid B(OH)3 and borate ions B(OH)4 - , where higher pH favors the formation of borate ions. Borate ions preferentially incorporate the heavier ¹¹B isotope over 10B. On the other hand, if …


Machine Learning For Predicting Prosthetic Limb Movements, Jessica Alexandra Cegarra Arraiz Jan 2026

Machine Learning For Predicting Prosthetic Limb Movements, Jessica Alexandra Cegarra Arraiz

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops and evaluates a deep learning-based prediction model capable of identifying intended limb movement from surfaced electromyography (sEMG) signals using sequence learning techniques. sEMG signals change over time due to multiple factors such as muscle fatigue or user variability. Traditional prosthetics control methods rely on static feature extraction, ignoring how signals change over time, thereby limiting their ability to capture the temporal changes of muscle activity. As a result, these approaches often lead to poor accuracy, robustness, and generalization. Limited experimental validation has been conducted on sequence-based machine learning approaches using temporal sEMG data from publicly available datasets …


Evaluating Hybrid Quantum-Classical Models For Image Classification In The Nisq Era, Utku Binkanat Jan 2026

Evaluating Hybrid Quantum-Classical Models For Image Classification In The Nisq Era, Utku Binkanat

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents a systematic empirical evaluation of quantum machine learning performance under noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era constraints. Through 670 controlled experiments, it evaluated quantum kernel support vector machines and variational quantum classifiers against classical baselines on MNIST binary and multiclass classification tasks with systematic variation of problem difficulty, feature dimensionality (4, 8 qubits), and training set size (n ∈{100, 250, 400, 500, 2000, 4000}). Statistical rigor was ensured through five random seeds per condition and comprehensive significance testing. During the testing with binary datasets, classical methods (SVM, logistic regression, k-NN, neural networks) achieved 85.9% to 99.6% accuracy with …


A Pipeline For Creating Obfuscated Binary Samples To Train Ai-Powered Detection Models, Luka R.H. Wilmink Jan 2026

A Pipeline For Creating Obfuscated Binary Samples To Train Ai-Powered Detection Models, Luka R.H. Wilmink

Theses and Dissertations

The analysis of binary files is a critical component of antivirus software and is one of the most important tools for incident response teams across the industry. In the field, malware is often obfuscated, a practice in which the compilation process is transformed with different techniques to hinder decompilation and reverse engineering. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning techniques can assist, but models need to be trained on well constructed datasets first. This paper outlines a pipeline for creating such a dataset and builds a proof-of-concept machine learning classification model. All associated data and code are supplied in the project GitHub …


Understanding Phishing Susceptibility Through Expert Consensus Using Digital Marketing Parallels And A Machine Learning-Based Implementation, Mansoor Ahmad Jan 2026

Understanding Phishing Susceptibility Through Expert Consensus Using Digital Marketing Parallels And A Machine Learning-Based Implementation, Mansoor Ahmad

All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects

Phishing remains one of the most effective attack vectors for gaining unauthorized access to organizational systems, yet defenders often lack systematic methods to assess their exposure before an attack. This study develops a framework that uses machine learning to encode the collective expertise of cybersecurity practitioners into a portable phishing susceptibility assessment tool, with the goal to help security teams proactively identify patterns, prioritize awareness training, and strengthen detection controls. The study surveyed 27 practitioners with extensive experience in social engineering, red teaming, penetration testing, and threat analysis to identify which factors most influence phishing susceptibility. Practitioners provided quantitative ratings …


Impacts Of Management Practices And Soil Properties On Free-Living Nitrogen Fixation In Eastern South Dakota, Laura Galvan Nuevo Jan 2026

Impacts Of Management Practices And Soil Properties On Free-Living Nitrogen Fixation In Eastern South Dakota, Laura Galvan Nuevo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Free-living nitrogen (N) fixation (FLNF) may represent a sustainable pathway to supplement crop N demand in agroecosystems, yet edaphic and management factors regulating this process under field conditions remain poorly understood in the Northern Great Plains. Using 15N2 direct method to quantify potential FLNF (pFLNF) and baseline FLNF (bFLNF), this thesis investigates how crop rotations (2-, 3-, and 4-year systems), tillage management (conventional vs. no-till), cover cropping, and soil properties affect the potential of free-living diazotrophs to supply N via FLNF in a long-term no-till corn-based system in Southeastern South Dakota. A two-year field study evaluated pFLNF across four growing …


Ai Vs. Genai: Combating Llm Generated Prescription Fraud With Transformer Based Detection Models, Ankitha Vokkaleri Shankarappa Jan 2026

Ai Vs. Genai: Combating Llm Generated Prescription Fraud With Transformer Based Detection Models, Ankitha Vokkaleri Shankarappa

Selected Full-Text Master Theses 2021-

The rapid evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) has introduced a sophisticated new vector for healthcare fraud: the generation of high-fidelity, synthetic medical prescriptions. Traditional fraud detection systems, which rely on rule-based engines and basic statistical anomalies, are increasingly ill-equipped to identify these AI-generated forgeries that mimic the structural and clinical logic of authentic records. This thesis presents a robust detection framework using Transformer-based architectures to distinguish between human-authored Medicare Part D prescriptions and fully synthetic records generated by GPT-4.

The research was conducted across two distinct phases: an initial pilot study using 4,000 samples and a rigorous validation stress …


Erosion Of Trust In Online Information, Tirth Desai Jan 2026

Erosion Of Trust In Online Information, Tirth Desai

A with Honors Projects

Researching how AI spreads misinformation and impacts trust in information.


Collaboration And Co-Management Ahead Of Permitting: Understanding How Actors And Their Interactions Lead To Non-Optimal Shoreline Projects, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Mariana Saitgalina, Michelle Covi Jan 2026

Collaboration And Co-Management Ahead Of Permitting: Understanding How Actors And Their Interactions Lead To Non-Optimal Shoreline Projects, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Mariana Saitgalina, Michelle Covi

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Living shorelines are widely promoted as nature-based solutions to coastal erosion and wetland protection, yet hardened shoreline structures continue to dominate even in jurisdictions with explicit policy mandates prioritizing living shorelines. In this research, we examine why non-optimal shoreline modification outcomes persist in Virginia (USA) despite a regulatory framework designed to promote ecological alternatives. We use primary data from interviews with wetlands board members, marine contractors, and nonprofit organizations and findings from a secondary survey of shoreline property owners to analyze shoreline management as a multi-sector collaborative decision-making process. Findings show that shoreline outcomes are shaped less by individual regulatory …


Fixed Dune Grassland Mapping, Ronica Reyes, Madison Mayenschein, Jared Cruz Jan 2026

Fixed Dune Grassland Mapping, Ronica Reyes, Madison Mayenschein, Jared Cruz

Environmental Science & Management Senior Capstones

Our  study applies Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and field-based data collection to map and assess a degraded fixed dune grassland parcel in Humboldt County, CA. Our project supports restoration planning led by Friends of the Dunes by identifying site features, habitat composition, and disturbance patterns at the site. Using GPS surveys, aerial imagery, and ArcGIS Pro, we mapped infrastructure, cement footprints, debris piles, vegetation types, and habitat boundaries. We mapped infrastructure such as concrete foundations and debris, which contribute to ongoing ecological degradation and the presence of invasive species. In addition, our spatial analysis highlights variability in disturbance. From this …


Healing Our Life Source: Riparian Eco-Cultural Restoration In Blue Lake Rancheria At School Creek, A Tributary Of Baduwa't In Northern California, Rae Mcgrath, Lily Moore, Keneti Jesus Pinones, Colin Rogers, Aberdeen Spade Jan 2026

Healing Our Life Source: Riparian Eco-Cultural Restoration In Blue Lake Rancheria At School Creek, A Tributary Of Baduwa't In Northern California, Rae Mcgrath, Lily Moore, Keneti Jesus Pinones, Colin Rogers, Aberdeen Spade

Environmental Science & Management Senior Capstones

School Creek, a tributary in the Baduwa’t (mad river) Watershed, is a riparian corridor that is key habitat for Coho Salmon. This project is under the management of the Blue Lake Rancheria, located on the ancestral home of the Wiyot people, and was conducted by cal poly humboldt students. The restoration of School Creek is an ongoing project aimed at repairing the health of the riparian corridor, improving the creek’s channel structure, and creating a diverse community of culturally significant plant species. Previous restoration efforts have established plantings to further develop the riparian habitat and are surveyed within this report. …


Removal And Monitoring Of Ammophila Arenaria In A Previously Restored Foredune Site In Humboldt Coastal Nature Center, Lucas Benjamin Griffin, Haylee Lynn Kimball, Maya Contreras, Ava Christenson Jan 2026

Removal And Monitoring Of Ammophila Arenaria In A Previously Restored Foredune Site In Humboldt Coastal Nature Center, Lucas Benjamin Griffin, Haylee Lynn Kimball, Maya Contreras, Ava Christenson

Environmental Science & Management Senior Capstones

Coastal dunes are important ecosystems that provide vital habitat for rare and endangered species as well as vital ecosystem services. However, since the late nineteenth century, coastal dune ecosystems have been invaded and altered by Ammophila arenaria, which is a beach grass species native to Europe. The dunes within the Humboldt Coastal Nature Center are one such example of this. This property is currently managed by the non-profit organization Friends of the Dunes, which has been working to restore the dunes' ecology and topography. Our project focuses on the monitoring and maintenance of a 2021 restoration project within a 17,794 …


Vegetation Management Plan And Wildlife Enhancement Project For The Woodley Island Wildlife Area, Sophie Belle Shapero, Brandon Carl Bauch, Moises Ortiz, Angelina Espinoza Jan 2026

Vegetation Management Plan And Wildlife Enhancement Project For The Woodley Island Wildlife Area, Sophie Belle Shapero, Brandon Carl Bauch, Moises Ortiz, Angelina Espinoza

Environmental Science & Management Senior Capstones

The Woodley Island Vegetation Management Plan and Wildlife Enhancement Project was created by Cal Poly Humboldt students in partnership with the Humboldt Bay Harbor Recreation and Conservation District as a capstone senior project. This project provides a basic management plan for invasive species and offers suggestions for how to enhance the wildlife areas on the island. The goals of the project are to provide maps of the habitat types within the wildlife reserves, map areas of concern to be targeted for invasive species removal, and provide guidelines for how to increase habitat diversity, wildlife forage, and decrease invasive species presence. …


Woody Ryno Farms Native Prairie Plant Restoration & Invasive Management Conservation Management Report, Jezebel Kenny, Rowan Haeger, Ian Mendonca, Annika Weihl Jan 2026

Woody Ryno Farms Native Prairie Plant Restoration & Invasive Management Conservation Management Report, Jezebel Kenny, Rowan Haeger, Ian Mendonca, Annika Weihl

Environmental Science & Management Senior Capstones

Coastal prairies are biodiverse and sensitive landscapes that support a variety of grassland species in mediterranean climates. Hedgerows may act as a natural barrier for coastal prairies or agricultural regions, aiding in natural protection and support for biodiversity. Humboldt County, California, hosts a number of agricultural regions, including Woody Ryno Farms, a small-scale agricultural operation, on the edge of Dows Prairie near the coast of Mckinleyville. This project aims to continue restoration activity being conducted on the site, helping to increase native biodiversity and agricultural productivity. Project objectives include conducting a plant assessment, applying treatments to individual plants where necessary, …


Hydrodynamic Tipping Points In The Mississippi Sound In Response To Bonnet Carré Spillway Openings, Mustafa Kemal Cambazoglu, Brandy N. Armstrong, Mohsena Lopa, Marc Diard, Jerry D. Wiggert Jan 2026

Hydrodynamic Tipping Points In The Mississippi Sound In Response To Bonnet Carré Spillway Openings, Mustafa Kemal Cambazoglu, Brandy N. Armstrong, Mohsena Lopa, Marc Diard, Jerry D. Wiggert

Faculty Publications

This project examines the current operational strategy of the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS), a Mississippi River flood-control structure located about 21 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, and managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The BCS is part of the larger Mississippi River and Tributaries Project, a network of levees and control structures designed to minimize flooding from the American plains to southern Louisiana. The spillway is opened when river discharge at New Orleans is forecasted to exceed 1,250,000 cubic feet per second, diverting significant volumes of Mississippi River water into Lake Pontchartrain which subsequently flows into Mississippi …


A Comprehensive Survey On Facial Expression Generation: From Gans To Llm-Guided Multimodal Models, Murad Hasan, Rabab Abdelfattah, Kareem Abdelfatah, Mostafa Fouda, Ahmed Sherif Jan 2026

A Comprehensive Survey On Facial Expression Generation: From Gans To Llm-Guided Multimodal Models, Murad Hasan, Rabab Abdelfattah, Kareem Abdelfatah, Mostafa Fouda, Ahmed Sherif

Faculty Publications

Facial expression generation (FEG) has emerged as a vital area in human–computer interaction, virtual avatars, and affective computing, aiming to synthesize natural and expressive facial behaviors across diverse interaction contexts. This survey presents a comprehensive analysis of recent advances in FEG, organized into six key paradigms: speech-driven expression generation, facial reaction generation, face video generation, facial animation, avatar-based generation, and text-driven expression generation. We review a wide range of model architectures, including VQ-VAEs, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), 3D Morphable Models (3DMMs), Transformers, and diffusion-based approaches, and compare their performance using commonly adopted evaluation metrics such as Fréchet Distance (FD), Peak …


Body Mass Index Has No Impact On Complications And Mortality For Patients With Stage Iv Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma, Ren Bryant, Hannah Darnell, Megan Hall, Kelsey N. Karnik, Kristen J. Mcquerry, Ruben R. Plentz Jan 2026

Body Mass Index Has No Impact On Complications And Mortality For Patients With Stage Iv Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma, Ren Bryant, Hannah Darnell, Megan Hall, Kelsey N. Karnik, Kristen J. Mcquerry, Ruben R. Plentz

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the leading causes of United States (USA) cancer death. Overweight and obesity developing into a growing global medical and socio-economic problem, affecting approximately 42% of adults in the USA population. The aim of our analysis was to evaluate the influence of overweight and obesity on complications and clinical outcome in patients with stage IV PDAC.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed electronic health records of patients diagnosed with stage IV PDAC (n=162) who followed with the University of Kentucky from January 2017–October 2024. Comparisons were based on the body mass index (BMI): low BMI …


Flood Risk Prediction System For Irish River Networks, Fernando Adalberto Naatz Heringer, Hugo Rodrigues De Freitas Jan 2026

Flood Risk Prediction System For Irish River Networks, Fernando Adalberto Naatz Heringer, Hugo Rodrigues De Freitas

ICT

Flooding costs the Irish economy more than 300 million euros annually; however, the hydrometric and meteorological data needed to predict dangerous river rises is already collected and freely available. This project applies machine learning to a decade of hourly observations from OPW Station 09001 on the River Liffey at Leixlip and Met Eireann Casement Aerodrome to build a flood risk prediction system with a 72-hour forecast horizon.

A two-phase modelling pipeline was built following the CRISP-DM framework. Phase 1 compared LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks on the task of forecasting the river level in metres 72 hours ahead. LSTM …