Risk Analysis Commons^™

Estimating Engineering And Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, John V. Bielecki

Theses and Dissertations

Cost Growth in Department of Defense (DoD) major weapon systems has been an on-going problem for more than 30 years. Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression. This research effort validates, and further explores the use of a two-step procedure for assessing DoD major weapon system cost growth using historical data, We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2001 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the research and development …

Outsourcing Information Technology And The Insider Threat, Valerie L. Caruso

Theses and Dissertations

As one of our nation's top critical infrastructures, telecommunications is an essential element of many aspects of our lives upon which we, as a society, are becoming increasingly dependent. Computers, digital telephone switches, and interconnected information technology (IT) systems impact finances, travel, infrastructure management, and missions of national defense. This research examined whether the trend in increased outsourcing of information technology systems is a significant contributing factor to a reportedly increasing amount of insider attacks. In light of changing social, global economic, and technological conditions, the paradigm in which risk analysis, management practices, and operational and personnel security practices are …

The Air Force Operational Risk Management Program And Aviation Safety, Matthew G. Cho

Theses and Dissertations

Aviation mishaps are extremely costly in terms of dollar value, public opinion, and human life, The Air Force drastically reduced Class A mishap rates in its formative years. The rate plummeted from 44.22 mishaps per 100,000 flight hours in 1947 to 2.33 mishaps in 1983 and has held steady around 1.5 mishaps since. The Air Force implemented the Operational Risk Management (ORM) program in 1996 in an effort to protect their most valuable resources: aircraft and aviators. An AFIT thesis conducted in 1999 by Capt Park Ashley studied the Army similar Risk Management (RM) program. Ashley concluded that since his …

Development Of An Aggregation Methodology For Risk Analysis In Aerospace Conceptual Vehicle Design, Trina Marsh Chytka

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The growing complexity of technical systems has emphasized a need to gather as much information as possible regarding specific systems of interest in order to make robust, sound decisions about their design and deployment. Acquiring as much data as possible requires the use of empirical statistics, historical information and expert opinion. In much of the aerospace conceptual design environment, the lack of historical information and infeasibility of gathering empirical data relegates the data collection to expert opinion.

The conceptual design of a space vehicle requires input from several disciplines (weights and sizing, operations, trajectory, etc.). In this multidisciplinary environment, the …

Reply To Dr. Tengs’ Response, Lisa Heinzerling

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "The primary aim of my article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Misuse in the Debate Over Regulatory Reform” was to dispel the myth that had grown up around the studies Dr. Tammy Tengs published with Dr. John Graham: that is, the idea that government regulation is responsible for, in Dr. Graham’s words, the “statistical murder” of 60,000 people in the United States every year. As I demonstrated in my article, nothing in the work of Drs. Tengs and Graham supports Dr. Graham’s recurring charge of statistical murder through regulation. And nothing in Dr. Tengs’ response to my article casts …

A Response To Lisa Heinzerling's Article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions And Their Misuse In The Debate Over Regulatory Reform”, Tammy O. Tengs

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "I am writing in response to Lisa Heinzerling's article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Misuse in the Debate Over Regulatory Reform,”1 published in the Spring 2002 issue of Risk: Health, Safety & Environment. Dr. Heinzerling comments on two papers that my colleagues and I, affiliated with the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, produced as part of research funded by the National Science Foundation over a decade ago. The first is the article “Five-Hundred Lifesaving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness,” published in the journal Risk Analysis in 1995. In this article we described the cost per year of lives saved of …

Lunar Lava Tube Radiation Safety Analysis, Giovanni De Angelis, J. W. Wilson, M. S. Clowdsley, J. E. Nealy, D. H. Humes, J. M. Clem

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

For many years it has been suggested that lava tubes on the Moon could provide an ideal location for a manned lunar base, by providing shelter from various natural hazards, such as cosmic radiation, meteorites, micrometeoroids, and impact crater ejecta, and also providing a natural environmental control, with a nearly constant temperature, unlike that of the lunar surface showing extreme variation in its diurnal cycle. An analysis of radiation safety issues on lunar lava tubes has been performed by considering radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and Solar Particle Events (SPE) interacting with the lunar surface, modeled as a regolith …

An Assessment Of Air Force Development Portfolio Management Practices, Michael A. Greiner, Kevin J. Dooley, Dan L. Shunk, Ross T. Mcnutt

Faculty Publications

Selecting and managing development project portfolios is a critical function within the Air Force’s weapon systems development process. Decision makers must weigh benefits, costs, and mission needs for a variety of proposed new initiatives and current weapon systems programs in order to develop an effective portfolio that provides the best value to the User. This research examines current Air Force development portfolio management practices as perceived by those involved with the decision making process. Research findings indicate several gaps between Air Force practices and those commercial best practices as found in the literature. A general approach for bridging the differences …

Estimating Engineering Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Vincent P. Sipple

Theses and Dissertations

This study explores a two-step procedure for assessing defense acquisition program cost growth using historical data. Specifically, we seek to predict whether a program will experience cost growth and, if applicable, how much costs will increase. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2000 for programs from all defense departments. We focus our analysis on cost growth in research and development dollars for the Engineering Manufacturing Development phase of acquisition. We further limit our study to only one of the seven SAR categories of cost growth engineering cost growth. We explore the use of …

The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment, Jason R. W. Merrick, Van Dorp Rene J., Thomas Mazzuchi, John R. Harrald, John E. Spahn, Martha Grabowski

Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Publications

After the grounding of the Exxon Valdez, and its subsequent oil spill, all parties with interests in Prince William Sound (PWS) were eager to prevent another major pollution event. While they implemented several measures to reduce the risk of an oil spill, the stakeholders disagreed about the effectiveness of these measures and the potential effectiveness of further proposed measures. They formed a steering committee to represent all the major stakeholders in the oil industry, in the government, in local industry and among the local citizens. The steering committee hired a consultant team, who created a detailed model of the PWS …

The Shipboard Office' : The Role Of It And Multi-Media Systems In Managing Engineering Operations And Maintenance Onboard Ship, Okechukwu Ebere Sylvanus Obara

World Maritime University Dissertations

This dissertation is an investigation of the roles of information technology and multimedia systems in the management of engineering operations and maintenance onboard ships. It considers the implications and constraints of adopting these technology tools on the economies of ship owners or managements companies, Maritime Administrations, and the Maritime Education and Training Institutions, especially in the developing countries. The study reviews the various shipboard maintenance policies and management techniques currently being practised in the traditional shipboard office with a view of understanding its constraints and the needs of adopting the various technological tools and systems. It also examines critically, the …

Efeci's In Reinforced Concrete Due To Environmental Conditions, And Concrete Treatment: A Case Study At The University Of Dar Es Salaam, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Concrete is produced by mixing together cement, water and aggregates (i. e. sand and coarse aggregates) in specified proportions, It can do well with compressive forces but it is very weak under tensile forces. TO Overcome this problem, steel reinforcement are normally added to produce reinforced concrete which can also withstand tensile forces Experience shows that environmental conditions may have a negative impact On the durability of reinforced concrete structures resulting in development of defects if not properly assessed and appropriate measures adopted to arrest the same at the design and construction stages. The severity of damages for the investigated …

Some Aspects Of Erosive Waves At Kunduchi Beach, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, Alfonse Dubi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The area north of the Dar es Salaam City is endowed with beautiful sandy beaches and high concentration or tourist beach hotels that are threatened by coastal erosion. In order to protect the buildings and land, coastal erosion must be controlled by mitigation options that are based on scientific data, wave and current climate along the East African region are generally controlled by the seasonal monsoon winds. During the north-east monsoon period when Winds blow from the Northeast, the wind-generated waves approach the coast from the northerly direction and produce long-shore Currents With a southerly component. During the southerly monsoon …

Stress Conditions In The Kilombero Rift, Central Tanzania, A Mruma

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The ancient and current Stress conditions at the northwestern flank of the Kilombero Rift are assessed in this paper. Neoproterozoic Stresses in the area were associated With 3200/200 trending principal axis of straining in the rocks. Ihis deformation imparted Precambrian ductile gneissic and concordant mineral foliation with attitude Of 0200/3$WNW, 3200/200 trending b•minerai lineation and isoclinal folds With axes trending parallel to the mineral lineation.phanerozoie deformations are mainly of pennvrriasic and Cenozoic periods. Both Of the two episodes Of deformation had constant orientation of princi axes of stresses with trending 0600/020, 02 trending 1600/800 and trending 33 1100. Stress conditions …

A Study Into Lack Of Product Innovation And Business Techniques At The Tricycle Workshop And Rrs Lessons To Small Companies, E Elias

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

A study was carried out at the Tricycle Workshop (TW) which was facing the problem of !ack of orders and therefore stagnation Of business. The objective of the study was to find out reasons for this situation and to propose possible remedial solutions. The study was conducted using the principles of the Product Innovation process where internal and external issues related to the business Of the company were investigated for information. Analysis Of information obtained indicated that the bad situation of the TW had mainly been caused by the nature of the tricycles-supply system whereby users (disabled persons) are unable …

Incorporating Heterogeneity In Command Center Interactions, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Levis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

One of the many complexities of multinational coalition operations stems from differences in culture, military procedures, and command and control processes between the cooperating command centers. These differences can influence the interactions between decision makers of different command centers and can affect the outcome of the coalition operation. A coalition model, composed of individual models of the five-stage interacting decision maker model, was used in a virtual experiment. The subjective parameters included in the decision maker model can be any attribute that characterizes the heterogeneity of the decision makers. In this case, the parameters of power distance and uncertainty avoidance …

An Integrated Risk Analysis Methodology In A Multidisciplinary Design Environment, Katrina R. Hampton

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability.

The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are …

Risk-Based Approach To Maritime Safety, Hui Xie

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Proposed Design Modifications To Reduce Risk Of Operating Rotary Field Mowers, Katie L. White, Larry G. Wells, Scott A. Shearer, Larry R. Piercy

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

The primary objective of this project was to reduce risk of injury associated with operating a rotary mower driven by a tractor power take-off (PTO) by developing and evaluating design improvements and determining their economic feasibility. Researchers have concluded that alteration of machinery design has a greater impact on the reduction of accidents than safety training. Implementation of an Operator Presence Sensing System (OPSS) and removal of the PTO are the two injury-reducing, engineering modifications evaluated by this research. Hydraulic power allows this to occur by providing dynamic braking, few moving parts (removal of the PTO), and controllable power. A …

Human Health Risk Assessment: Recreational Use Of A Brownfield Site Volunteer Army Ammunition Plant Chemical Farmers Industries, Inc., Lease Area Chattanooga, Tennessee, Sandra Gail Skipper Koss

Masters Theses and Doctoral Dissertations

This thesis investigates the suitability of a lead-contaminated Brownfield, the Volunteer Army Ammunition Plant (VAAP) site in Chattanooga, for recreational use such as children's softball. The assessment includes a review of soil sample data obtained at the VAAP by IT Corporation from 1994 to 1999, particulate monitoring of softball activities at Warner Park by the author in 1999-2000, and determination of the fate and transport of lead contamination in the soil. The fate and transport were evaluated using EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model for children under 7 years of age. The adult effects were calculated using an EPA …

The Effect Of Heat On Fingertip Sensitivity Of Meat Processing Workers, Brian James Finder

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

Current research indicates that acute non-freezing cold exposure elicits short-term performance problems; namely reduced upper extremity temperature, blood flow, tactile sensitivity, and dexterity. However, various animal-related studies indicate that humans are at increased risk of incurring semi-permanent upper extremity nervous system dysfunction as a result of repeated cold exposure.

The purpose of this research was to examine various factors that may contribute to hand/arm nervous system impairment of individuals who work in a refrigerated meat-processing environment. The methodology used was primarily the Experimental Method and from studies conducted by other researchers, was driven by the following questions:

(1) How would …

Application Of Vibrational Techniques In Determination Of Dynamic Properties Of Agricultural Products-State Of The Arton Of Vibrational Techniques In Determination Of Dynamic Properties Of Agricultural Products-State Of The Art, Silas Kajuna

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Vibration is one of the techniques employed in the determination of dynamic properties of fruits and vegetables. It entails generation of a mechanical or acoustic vibrational signal which is propagated through the flesh of the agricultural material. A transducer is either attached or held close to the specimen to monitor the propagation of the signal through the specimen. The manner in which the signal is transmitted through the material is analyzed, and the dynamic properties of the specimen which relate to its firmness or its internal being are derived. The technique has been around for the past 30 years or …

Fire Protection Onboard : Enhance Fire Safety By Design, Shangchun Zhang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Comparison Of One-Dimensional And Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling Approaches For Red River Basin, Sajjad Ahmad, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A devastating flood in Red River valley in 1997 emphasized the need to study the flood control measures in the Red River basin using state of the art modeling tools. The Red River and its floodplains can be modeled using one-dimensional, quasi two-dimensional or fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. Each modeling approach has its own advantages and limitations. The main purpose of this report is a comparison between one-dimensional (or quasi two dimensional) and fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approaches for modeling floods in the Red River basin.

A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, MIKE 21, coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) …

Introduction: The Challenge Of Risk Communication In A Democratic Society, Richard C. Rich, Robert J. Griffin, Sharon M. Friedman

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The symposium editors review key issues concerning the relationship between risk communication and public participation.

Multi-Discipline Network Vulnerability Assessment, Karilynne Wallace

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force Space Command has a mission to provide real-time, survivable, and enduring communications, surveillance, environmental monitoring, navigation, and warning....according to Air Force Space Handbook - A War Fighters Guide to Space. In order to prevent disruption of the critical networks in Space Command, a vulnerability assessment must be performed. The set of components called a vulnerability set, which could cause network disruption, must be identified and prioritized. In order to move beyond subjective prioritization, implementation of a quantitative methodology that measures the value of each vulnerability set is needed. This thesis proposes a technique for vulnerability assessment of a …

Extracting Consistent Weight Ratio Matrices From Inconsistent Judgement Matrices., Christian Alphonce

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The Analy,'ic Hierarchy Process (AHP) developed by Saaty Inore (han a decade ago has been widely applied in diverse decision making problenls ranging from socio-economic planning to engineering designs. One of the basic steps of this popular decision support tool is concerned with estimating a ratio scale of a set of entities from their inconsistent pairwise comparison judgement matrix. A number of estimation procedures for this purpose have been proposed. These include Saaty's eigenvector meihod, various geometric means methods, and methods using logarithmic least squares, least squares. and means Transformanons, amongst O,'hers. One Thing conunon to all these Inethods is …

Analysis Of Usaf Medium And Heavylift Space Launch Mission Reliability Requirements, Arthur R. Dawkins

Theses and Dissertations

The launch services that the USAF procures to carry DOD payloads into orbit are characterized by high risks and high costs. If a launch vehicle experiences a catastrophic failure, the cost of the entire launch vehicle, the launch processing, and the payload are completely lost (often in excess of 1,5 billion dollars.) Despite this enormous risk for the payload customer, and indeed the launch provider, launch success rates around the world are not much above 90 percent. The current USAF medium and heavylift launch systems are often based on technology that is 20 years old and older. Furthermore, little historical …

Trends Of Microcomputer Technology In Developing Countries, With More Focus On Tanzanian Experiences: Achievements And Problems, Satoki Mahenge

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Trends of microcomputer technology in developing countries, including Tanzanian. is like a 'mixed bag' of achievement and problems. Although rhe technology has been available for many years in developed world, developing countries are responding to it differently due to differences in political and economic policies. Some countries have acrimonious policies on the technology, some not. There are countries which utilize fully the technology in work places and others are still at dilemma on the importation of the technology due to what is 'claimed to be a weak economy in the presence Of many other pressing needs'. Other countries seem to …

A Risk Analysis Of Remediation Technologies For A Doe Facility, Helene A. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Energy is responsible for selecting a remediation technology to clean up the Waste Area Group (WAG) 6 site at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) in Kentucky. WAG 6 is contaminated with an uncertain amount of trichloroethylene (TCE) and technetium-99 (Tc-99). Selecting a remediation technology involves a certain degree of risk because many of these technologies are new or proven only for a specific type of contaminant or a particular set of site conditions. Differences between contaminant type and site conditions are enough to make the performance of a remediation technology uncertain. This research identifies the technological …