Risk Analysis Commons^™

Review Of The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture And Deviance At Nasa, Peter F. Meiksins

Sociology & Criminology Faculty Publications

Reviews the book "The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture and Deviance at NASA," by Diane Vaughan.

How The Presence Of A Risk Ladder, Time Interval Comparison, And Smoking Comparison Affect Risk Perception, Steve A. Dinzart

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this study is to increase the knowledge available on the relative effectiveness of risk ladders as a presentation format for explaining risk magnitudes to the public. An experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses that an individual's risk perception varies with the presence of a risk ladder, time interval comparison, and smoking comparison. Subjects were AFIT Professional Continuing Education students, asked to assume a particular level of a health hazard in their homes, to read a brochure explaining the hazard, and then to complete a questionnaire. Results demonstrated that subjects exposed to a graphical risk ladder perceived …

Predicting Mishap Rates At Closing Usaf Maintenance Depots, Douglas E. Mcclain

Theses and Dissertations

It is clear that the Department of Defense and the USAF, in an effort to cut costs, will continue to reduce infrastructure through base closures. This has particular implications to the civilian employee who will likely lose his or her job. The purpose of this study was to review the most recent literature relating to safety and industrial facility closures and develop a theoretical model for predicting accident or mishap rates. From the literature reviewed, a theoretical model is proposed containing five candidate variables intended to measure; perceived adequacy of employee safety training, perceived safety culture, perceived safety climate, self-reported …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

Physical And Managed Risk Of Nuclear Waste, Lennart Sjöberg, Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjöberg

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors describe their work on the perceived risk of nuclear waste in Sweden. Three levels of waste were studied, and comparisons between the perceptions of the public, politicians and nuclear experts are made.

C-17/Paratrooper Risk Assessment Analysis, Jose C. Belano

Theses and Dissertations

The C-17 test and evaluation community has been testing different aircraft formation geometries in search of a configuration which minimizes paratrooper encounter with the wake vortices of upstream aircraft. This thesis develops a simulation tool that the C-17 test and evaluation community can utilize as an advanced risk assessment model to use on proposed formation geometries prior to live testing. The model is developed under the architecture of object-oriented simulation using MODSIM III and parallels similar efforts by the Aerodynamic Decelerator Technology community in creating object-oriented counterparts to already developed trajectory models of various degrees of freedom. This thesis develops …

Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle

Theses and Dissertations

This research optimized two measures of network security by hardening components and improving their reliability. A common measure of effectiveness (MOE) for networks is statistical reliability, which ignores the effects of hostile actions. A new MOE which includes hostile actions was developed. Both measures require component reliability functions, derived using fault trees. Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify uncertainty. Results from the model are compared to traditional Risk Assessment results.

A Monte Carlo Model Of Uncertainty In A Deterministic Hazardous Waste Transportation Risk Assessment, Michael A. Cowen

Masters Theses

This thesis is aimed at developing and applying advanced modeling tools in the prediction of risk to the general public from transportation of chemical waste on public highways. The modeling tools developed can then be used to compare alternative waste management scenarios. The application considered is related to the transport of hazardous waste generated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to current treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. DOE is currently considering four different scenarios.

The application considered can be more specifically defined as an analysis of the risk to the general public from transporting the 63 shipments of …