Risk Analysis Commons^™

Quantifying Attacker Payoff In Harvest Now, Decrypt Later Attacks: A Persistence-Based Framework For Trade Secret Risk, Arjun Kumar, Gene Yang, Turiya Misra, Francis Kagai

Journal of Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

Harvest-now, decrypt-later (HNDL) assumes that encrypted secrets stolen today will remain worth decrypting when quantum computers eventually make that possible. But what if they do not? This paper models HNDL from the attacker’s perspective by asking a different question: how much will a stolen secret still be worth when it can finally be decrypted? We develop a conditional retained-value framework combining probabilistic Q-day timing, information depreciation, and adversary-access delay. The results reveal a sharp divide. Rapidly depreciating secrets can lose much of their strategic value before quantum decryption becomes useful, while persistent secrets can retain substantial attacker payoff even under …

Research On The Early Warning Model Of Online Public Opinion Risk Based On Cross-Social-Media Platforms, Tiejun Cheng, Tong Wang, Jianxiang Wei, Lanping Feng

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] Under the influence of cross-social media interactions, online public opinion can ferment simultaneously across different media platforms, deeply interact, and resonate multiple times, which is more likely to trigger a chain reaction of risks or even new types of risks. Therefore, it is significant to analyze the interactive influence of risks based on cross-social media public opinion data to promote the management of online public opinion towards preemptive prevention and early warning. [Method/process] Firstly, based on the analysis of the risk characteristics of cross-social media public opinion, a risk early warning indicator system for cross-social media online public opinion …

Technical, Environmental And Institutional Readiness For Nuclear Power Deployment In Seismically Active Power Systems, King Harold A. Recto, Izech Brian O. Edwin

Electronics, Computer, and Communications Engineering Faculty Publications

The deployment of nuclear power in seismically active power systems presents significant engineering, environmental, and institutional challenges. Although nuclear energy offers a low-carbon option capable of supporting long-term energy transition goals, its adoption requires careful evaluation of readiness factors beyond reactor technology alone. This study investigates the technical, environmental, and institutional determinants influencing nuclear power deployment in seismically active regions. A systematic review of engineering, environmental, and policy literature was conducted to identify key factors affecting nuclear energy integration, including grid capacity requirements, seismic safety considerations, hydrological conditions for reactor cooling, and long-term radioactive waste management strategies. These factors are …

On The Issue Of Developing Diagnostic Systems In Case Of Incompleteness Of Data, Amanulla Azizovich Kadirov, Shohijahon Ulugbek Ugli Akhmetov

Technical science and innovation

This paper addresses the problem of developing diagnostic systems for industrial equipment when initial failure data is incomplete or unavailable. An approach is proposed for generating synthetic data based on a pseudo-failure generator that implements stochastic modeling of degradation processes. A formalized algorithm for generating time-to-failure samples has been developed, including stages of failure physics analysis, statistical model selection, distribution parameterization, and simulation of operating conditions. The Weibull distribution is used as the base model, allowing for the consideration of various stages of the equipment’s life cycle. Additionally, factors that bring the synthetic data closer to real operating conditions are …

Integrating Gis With Interim Payment Valuation In Road Construction Projects: A Conceptual Framework, Abdulrahman I. Iro, Juma M. Matindana, Julian Ijumulana

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Abstract

Interim Payment Valuation is a critical process in road construction contract administration, yet conventional valuation practices remain heavily dependent on manual measurements, fragmented documentation, spreadsheets, and professional judgement. These limitations can affect measurement accuracy, transparency, traceability, and the timeliness of payment certification. Although Geographic Information Systems have increasingly been applied to construction planning, quantity measurement, progress monitoring, infrastructure management, and decision support, their integration with contractual and financial processes for interim payment valuation remains insufficiently explored. This study therefore develops a conceptual framework for integrating GIS with Interim Payment Valuation in road construction projects. A PRISMA-guided structured literature review …

Voltage-Related Power Quality Issues And Impacts On Distribution Networks With Sensitive Loads - A Review, Godwin Elinazi Mnkeni, Jackson Justo, Aviti Thadei Mushi, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Voltage disturbances are the most important power quality (PQ) complications that customers and power utilities face in this smart era. The growing adoption of sophisticated electronic equipment and integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids has increased the susceptibility of power distribution networks (PDNs) to voltage sags, swells, interruptions, flicker, and voltage imbalance. These disturbances, mainly caused by upstream faults, switching operations, and RES integration, compromise voltage PQ and system reliability. Consequently, they accelerate equipment degradation, increase electronic waste (e-waste), raise reactive power demand and maintenance costs, increase power losses, and impose substantial economic losses on customers and …

Safety And Resilience In Disaster Debris Removal And Clean-Up Operations: A Field And Training Guide For Resilience Workers In Disaster Debris Removal And Cleanup, Mohsen Shahandashti, Ph.D, P.E., Abhijit Roy, Ph.D, Zhe Yin, Ph.D, P.E., Pmp, Leed Ap, Antonio Balderrama, Ph.D, P.E., Sandesh Adhikari, Santosh Acharya

Mavs Open Press Open Educational Resources

A practical safety guide for the people who clear debris after disasters, and for the trainers who prepare them. Built for crews of every experience level--from seasoned operators to first-time volunteers--it teaches how to read a damaged site, recognize hidden and shifting hazards, work safely around heavy equipment and hazardous materials, and make sound decisions under pressure. Every chapter pairs clear guidance with a one-page field job aid, facilitator notes for trainers, and a real-world scenario, all grounded in OSHA, FEMA, EPA, and NIOSH guidance.

Safety and Resilience in Disaster Debris Removal and Clean-Up Operations Copyright © 2026 by Mohsen …

Breaking The Build: Detecting Software Supply Chain Vulnerabilities In Ci/Cd Pipelines, Mercedes R. Wahl, Dr. Benjamin Yankson

Military Cyber Affairs

This study examines whether integrating structured DevSec- Ops security controls into CI/CD pipelines can reduce software supply chain risk by preventing vulnerable components from progressing through the software development lifecycle. Software supply chain attacks frequently originate from weaknesses or compromises within dependencies, build environments, and trusted development stages, making early detection essential. A controlled sandbox experiment compared two pipeline configurations: a baseline CI/CD pipeline with no automated security enforcement and a secure DevSecOps pipeline integrating automated vulnerability scanning, SBOM generation, and artifact integrity verification. A known vulnerable dependency, the Python requests package (version 2.19.0) associated with CVE-2018-18074, was intentionally introduced …

Exploring Consultancy-Related Variations In Public Building Projects: A Review Towards A Management Framework, Grayson Bambaza, Ismail W. R. Taifa, George S, Mwaluko

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Consultancy-related variations remain one of the leading causes of cost overruns, schedule delays, quality deficiencies, and contractual disputes in public building projects. Although various studies have been undertaken to document the causes of variations in construction works, the same level of interest has not been shown for consulting services variations across the consulting services spectrum and their consequences for effective management. This study explores variations in consulting services for public works by systematically reviewing the existing literature using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta Analyses) guidelines. Relevant articles published from 2020 to 2026 were retrieved from …

Urban Spatial Development Control In Tanzania: Analysis Of Factors Influencing Gis Application Using Structural Equation Modelling (Sem)., Happiness Protas Mmanda, Nestory Yamungu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Rapid urbanization in developing countries has intensified urban expansion, creating challenges for sustainable development. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) enhance spatial planning, but empirical evidence on factors influencing their effectiveness remains limited. This study examines determinants of GIS application in Urban Spatial Development Control (USDC). The objectives are to (1) identify and categorize factors affecting GIS use, (2) assess relative strength, and (3) develop a validated structural model explaining GIS adoption in USDC. Data were collected from 103 LGAs by a mixed sampling method. Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis classified influencing factors into technology-related (α = 0.869, CR = 0.881), process-related …

Exploring Red Palm Oil As A Sustainable Plasticizer For Carbon Black-Filled Ssbr/Br Tire Tread Compounds: A Comparative Evaluation Of Commercial Alternatives, Norma Arisanti Kinasih, Mohamad Irfan Fathurrohman, Santi Puspitasari, Dewi Kusuma Arti, Abdulhakim Masa

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

This study investigates the application of red palm oil (RPO) as an alternative vegetable oil resource to substitute petroleum-based plasticizers, which have environmental and health concerns, in carbon black (CB)-filled SSBR/BR tire tread compounds. The plasticizing effects of RPO were thoroughly evaluated by comparing them with a commercial bio-based plasticizer, Epoxidized Soybean Oil (ESBO), and two safer petroleum-based oils, Naphthenic Oil (NYNAS) and Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract (TDAE). The initial investigation shows that fatty acid composition is imposing regarding the plasticizing effect. The higher unsaturated fatty acid content in RPO than in ESBO improved tensile strength and degraded rolling resistance …

Analysis Of Tower Stringset Replacement From 33 Kv To 66 Kv Considering Sagging Clearance, Muhammad Lazuardi Azzura, Anne Zulfia Syahrial, Julius Purnama Eka Kartika

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

Efforts to increase the capacity of transmission networks are often undertaken by uprating the operating voltage of existing lines rather than building entirely new infrastructure. Such uprating typically involves the replacement of tower insulator stringsets to withstand higher voltages, while also ensuring that mechanical performance remains adequate. This paper presents an analysis of uprating the Parakan–Sunyaragi transmission line from 33 kV to 66 kV, with particular emphasis on conductor sagging and the resulting clearance from the ground. The methodology employed includes calculations based on catenary equations, analysis of conductor tensile forces, and a comparative evaluation of two widely used insulator …

Metallurgical Investigation Of A Modified Eye Bolt Failure Caused By Improper Weld Extension, Specification Deviation, And Crevice Corrosion, Dimas Muhammad Fawwaz, Reza Miftahul Ulum, Johny Wahyuadi Soedarsono, Yudha Pratesa

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

A modified eye bolt from the David Arm Manhole Storage Tank underwent thorough metallurgical study due to the consequences of the bolt's malfunction during operation. Safety issues arose when the manhole door detached during operation. The mechanical testing and chemical composition analysis of the bolts indicated they were manufactured from an ASTM A193 Grade B7 material used for high-temperature bolting. This material did not conform to the engineering drawing, which mentioned SA 563A, which is about nuts, not bolts. This contradiction clearly shows that the eye bolt which was installed does not conform to the intended design. Welded connections of …

Rejection Of Fe (Iron) And Kmno4 (Organic Substance) Parameters In Peat Water Using Organic Membranes, Muhamad Rafli Sakti Mulia Gonera, Siti Umi Kalsum, Sarah Fiebrina Heraningsih

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

Peat water is a surface water source widely used by people in swampy and lowland areas, but it has poor quality characteristics such as high organic matter content, low pH, and dissolved metal levels such as iron that exceed the threshold. These conditions can cause health problems and reduce the quality of clean water so that effective treatment technology is needed. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of ultrafiltration membranes made from chitosan from shrimp shell waste in rejecting iron (Fe) and organic substances in peat water, and to determine the effect of pressure on separation performance. This study …

Environmental Ethics And Impact Of Artificial Intelligence Data Centers, Jacky Yang

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Data centers, including artificial intelligence (AI) facilities, serve as the backbone for many modern digital services and products. With the rapid digitization of society, the expansion of these centers in the United States has accelerated significantly. From an anthropocentric and utilitarian perspective, they provide economic benefits, supporting employment and generating public revenue. However, they can also create a significant amount of environmental and societal challenges. From an ecocentric and environmental justice perspective, AI data centers has contributed to increased competition for the limited resources, such as water, electricity, and land and has been linked to rising utility costs, noise pollution, …

Ai Cyber First Responders: Bottleneck Analysis Of Heterogeneous Cpu–Gpu Pipelines For Security Operations Center Triage, Christine Pierce

Harrisburg University Other Works

Abstract — Modern Security Operations Centers (SOCs) must continuously process massive volumes of heterogeneous security telemetry while meeting stringent throughput, latency, and operational continuity requirements. Although transformer-based artificial intelligence has significantly improved threat detection and alert prioritization, most cybersecurity research evaluates model accuracy rather than the end-to-end behavior of AI-enabled operational pipelines. Consequently, relatively little is known about how heterogeneous CPU–GPU coordination, scheduling overhead, memory movement, and synchronization collectively influence operational SOC performance. This paper presents the AI Cyber First Responder, a heterogeneous SOC triage architecture that integrates GPU-accelerated transformer inference with CPU-based doctrine-driven reasoning to investigate end-to-end pipeline behavior …

An Innovative Approach To Real-Time Noise Monitoring And Detection In Airport Ramp Operations, Grace Hamilton, Nicole E. Egan, Anderson Peralta, Deyaneira Rodriguez, Maria G. Valentinez

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Airport ramp personnel are routinely exposed to hazardous noise levels exceeding occupational safety thresholds, increasing the risk of permanent hearing loss, degraded communication, and operational incidents. Traditional ramp noise management relies primarily on periodic monitoring and personnel protective equipment (PPE), which limits real-time hazard recognition and a proactive risk mitigation strategy. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the safety and financial effectiveness of implementing a real-time noise monitoring and detection system within airport ramp operations in alignment with Safety Management System (SMS) principles. A literature review, Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), and financial cost-benefit analysis were conducted to compare …

A System Safety Approach To Assuring Artificial Intelligence Enabled Functions In Civil Aviation, Evan Bear, Quinn Galen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques are increasingly proposed for use in safety-critical civil aviation functions including perception decision support and pilot assistance. Existing aviation safety and certification standards such as ARP4754A and DO-178C were developed under assumptions of determinism explicit requirements and complete behavioral specification which do not directly apply to learning-enabled systems. This mismatch has created uncertainty regarding how artificial intelligence enabled avionics can be safely assured and certified. This paper presents a system safety approach for assuring artificial intelligence enabled functions within existing aviation certification frameworks. In this approach safety assurance is based on explicitly identifying the …

A Hybrid Llm-Srgm Framework For Ai-Enabled Reliability Assessment In Safety-Critical Software Systems, Caleb Stone, Shrenik Jadhav

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Ensuring the reliability of software intensive and safety critical systems is a persistent challenge across aerospace, defense, transportation, and other mis- sion focused domains. Traditional software relia- bility growth models (SRGM) provide useful quanti- tative insight into defect discovery trends, but they rely mostly only on numerical failure data and do not use the rich contextual information contained in test logs, anomaly reports, and engineering notes. This paper presents a hybrid framework that com- bines semantic features extracted by a large lan- guage model (LLM) with a non-homogeneous Pois- son process (NHPP) based software reliability growth model. The LLM analyzes …

Cars Imass - Comparing Llm Vs Human Operator Effectiveness In Multi-Agent Swarm Coordination, Gatlin Nelson

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Title: Dual-Perspective Risk Analysis for Human-LLM Decision Comparison in UAV Swarm Navigation   Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms operating in low-altitude wireless network environments encounter localized disruptions that degrade positioning and navigation metrics. These disruptions are modeled as geographic failure zones with defined boundaries. A UAV discovers a zone by entering it and observing degraded performance on its onboard systems. This work assumes that affected UAVs can autonomously retreat to safety using onboard sensors and focuses on the subsequent rerouting decision. Once recovered, the system generates candidate repositioning points surrounding the vehicle, each scored using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). A human operator …