Risk Analysis Commons^™

Prioritizing Ports And Waterways Safety Assessments (Pawsas), Matalynn Clark, Peyton Phillips, Claire Portigue, Justin Canovas, Eric Johnson, Andrew Zuckerman

Mathematica Militaris

A Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) is a discussion forum facilitated by the United States Coast Guard Navigation Center (NAVCEN) to analyze the state of a port or waterway as it relates to navigation, vessel traffic, and physical attributes of the waterway. A successful workshop requires the collaboration between various stakeholders such as waterway users, environmental interest groups and local law enforcement. Without involving the relevant parties and encouraging their insight, the USCG risks creating an incomplete understanding of the port’s dynamic.

This project examines the characteristics of eight ports across the U.S. to determine which is in most …

Risk Assessments And Modeling Of Driver By Using Risk Potential Theory, Riku Kikuta

Theses and Dissertations

Recently, various self-driving and driving assistance systems such as Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) have been developed with the intent to reduce the number of motor vehicle accidents. While self-driving systems have been proven to reduce traffic accidents, the systems sometimes make other drivers confused because of their mechanical behavior. To avoid confusion and possible error, it is necessary to construct self-driving systems that exhibit human-like behaviors. Risk Potential theory has been used to construct models that successfully represent driver behavior, especially expert behavior. This project uses Risk Potential theory to construct and evaluate a collision avoidance driver model which …

Integrating Steel Slag Aggregates Into Asphalt Paving By Harmonizing Availability, Quality, Economics, And The Environment, Timothy R. Murphy

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides guidance on how to balance matters related to the environmental stewardship, market sources, origin and uses, material properties, performance, and economic impact of using slag materials in pavements. The literature on this topic provides numerous references on the use of slag materials for specific applications, and this thesis aims to make use of those references along with other data from the author to describe slag materials from a holistic perspective and provide some suggestions for balancing several factors that impact optimal use of this resource within pavement structures. Discussion is given to the increased importance of recycling …

Sensor Module Network For Monitoring Trace Gases In The International Space Station, Aaron Beck, Drake Provost, Christopher English, Kamrin Gustave

Honors Capstones

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aims to develop a sensor network for the International Space Station (ISS) to ensure a comprehensive understanding of air quality within the station. The accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO­­­­­₂) can lead to cognitive impairment, headaches, and potentially dangerous situations at high concentrations. Monitoring air content at the ISS is critical to maintaining a healthy environment for crew onboard. Exposure to harmful gases causes negative side effects that make crew sick, which may interfere with their responsibilities. CO₂ is a gas that should be monitored …

Multi-Mode Total Focusing Method (Mtfm) To Detect High-Temperature Hydrogen Attack (Htha) – A Review, Anjar Oktikawati, Rini Riastuti, Nursidi Yuanto

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings (JMEF)

High temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) is a commonly observed harm component in carbon steels exposed to high temperature and pressure in a hydrogen-rich environment. Hydrogen together with carbon responds to produce methane. The formation of methane bubbles in steel can lead to loss of fracture toughness and lead to intergranular cracking. The main challenge of this problem lies in early warning systems that can detect these bubble clusters before they reach the advanced stage. Several advanced ultrasonic inspections have been developed over the years due to the challenges of inspecting materials for defects and discontinuities. These cover time-of-flight diffraction (ToFD), …

Automated Visualization Pipeline For Near Real-Time Risk Management System, Paris Joslin

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

In modern society, technological capabilities and the amount of data readily available to users continue to grow exponentially. Many have adopted these new capabilities but lack the infrastructure needed to efficiently utilize high-powered software and programs. Without a method to collect, store, and process large datasets in real-time, individuals and businesses can quickly become overwhelmed, inhibiting effective decision-making processes. There is potential to improve decision-making abilities by enhancing the computing infrastructure. To accomplish this task, we will explore the ideas surrounding High Performance Computing (HPC) and data visualization software. High Performance Computing is the ability to process data and perform …

Estimating Toxic Load From Finite-Duration Contaminant Releases In Wind Tunnel Experiments, Patrick B. Jones

Chemical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

When gaseous contaminants are released into the atmosphere said contaminants form clouds that travel in the prevailing wind direction. An individual caught in the downwind path of one such cloud will accumulate a dosage, or toxic load, of said contaminant that is dependent on a multitude of environmental factors. This thesis quantifies unpredictability – or variation – in toxic load measurements using downwind concentration data captured from finite-duration gaseous contaminant releases conducted at set conditions in the Chemical Hazards Research Center ultra-low speed wind tunnel.

Finite-duration releases can be divided into two categories – time-limited steady releases and puffs – …

Analyzing The Impact Of Automation On Employment In Different Us Regions: A Data-Driven Approach, Thejaas Balasubramanian

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automation is transforming the US workforce with the increasing prevalence of technologies like robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. As a result, it is essential to understand how this shift will impact the labor market and prepare for its effects. This culminating experience project aimed to examine the influence of computerization on jobs in the United States and answer the following research questions: Q1. What factors affect how likely different jobs will be automated? Q2. What are the possible effects of automation on the US workforce across states and industries? Q3. What are the meaningful predictors of the likelihood of …

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Ransomware: Evaluation Of Mitigation And Prevention Techniques, Juanjose Rodriguez-Cardenas

Symposium of Student Scholars

Ransomware is classified as one of the main types of malware and involves the design of exploitations of new vulnerabilities through a host. That allows for the intrusion of systems and encrypting of any information assets and data in order to demand a sum of payment normally through untraceable cryptocurrencies such as Monero for the decryption key. This rapid security threat has put governments and private enterprises on high alert and despite evolving technologies and more sophisticated encryption algorithms critical assets are being held for ransom and the results are detrimental, including the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack in 2021 …

Wind-Wave Misalignment Effects On Multiline Anchor Systems For Floating Offshore Wind Turbines, Doron T. Rose

Masters Theses

Multiline anchors are a novel way to reduce the cost of arrays of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs), but their behavior is not yet fully understood. Through metocean characterization and dynamic simulations, this thesis investigates the effects of wind-wave misalignment on multiline anchor systems. Four coastal U.S. sites are characterized in order to develop IEC design load cases (DLCs) and analyze real-world misaligned conditions. Stonewall Bank, Oregon showed the highest 500-year extreme wave height, at 16.6 m, while Virginia Beach, Virginia showed the highest 500-year wind speed, at 56.8 m/s. Misalignment probability distributions, at all sites, are found to converge …

An Experimental Investigation Of Multi-Cylinder Conventional Ci Engine Using Madhuca Indica Oil As Fuel, Sreenivas S, Balakrishnan N, Kannan T K, Solaimuthu C

International Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering

The present work is mainly discussed with a qualitative study of engine’s significant characteristics fuelled with mahua bio-diesel & its different types of mixtures with neat diesel. The significant technical properties of various mixtures are tabulated. A 4-S multi-cylinder (6-Cylinder) DI conventional CI engine is used for the study under different speed modes. All types of characteristics for various mixtures are estimated in running the engine. Pure diesel is indicated by B-0 and pure mahua bio-diesel is represented by B-100. From the test results, it is found that B-25 gives almost the same BTE as B-0 at maximum load, compared …

Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn

SMU Data Science Review

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network's traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian …

Flood Risk Data For Highway Projects, Nabil Ghalayini

Purdue Road School

This presentation will provide project managers and engineers with a clear understanding of available FEMA Risk MAP flood hazard data to better inform project design. This presentation will broadly define flood risk, review the FEMA flood risk database as a source of risk parameters, contrast the regulatory Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) with Risk MAP depth and probability grids, and highlight the variability of risk within the SFHA.

Development Of An Improved Mathematical Representation Which Captures The Nonlinear Dynamic Behavior Of A Drill-String Assembly, Eleazar Marquez

Mechanical Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this study, an improved mathematical representation of a drill-string assembly is developed to provide an alternative assessment on vibration irregularities proliferating downhole due to bit-rock interference. Lateral vibrations receive particular attention due to their high frequency content which alter the dynamic response of the drill-string, instigate casing damage, and impede optimal penetration rates. The response of the drill-string is captured by synthesizing compatible stationary bit excitations, via an auto-regressive digital filter, and implementing Monte Carlo simulation, while the power spectral density function is approximated to elucidate the dynamic characteristics during drilling. Formulating adequate physical parameters for the equation of …

Structural Integrity Analysis Of The Rig Mast Following Repair Of Two Diagonal Braces In The Upper Mast Section, Rendhatya Padmodwiputra, Johny Wahyuadi Soedarsono, Mirza Mahendra, Bambang Eka Satria, Chandra Arif, Eka Juni Suarthana

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings (JMEF)

During a move to the new drilling location, two braces of the upper mast section on a 550 HP oil and gas rig was damaged. When damage is discovered, the rig operating company should conduct a risk analysis related to the damage using the standard used to determine rejection criteria and follow-up repairs. The strength of the rig mast is calculated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) with initial conditions (before damage occurs) where all braces are installed and extreme conditions where neither brace is repaired. The calculation results are then used to assess the risk of reducing the rig mast …

Freespan Analysis For Subsea Pipeline Integrity Management Strategy, Nurul Hadi, Muhammad Helmi, Edo Cathaputra, Dedi Priadi, Donanta Dhaneswara

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings (JMEF)

Abstract. Over a rough seabed or on seabed subject to scour, freespans can occur when contact between a subsea pipeline and the seabed is lost over an acceptable distance. When this exceeds the allowable freespan length, design stresses can be exceeded, and a vortex induced vibration (VIV) response can be initiated, resulting in the risk of fatigue failure. If this is not predicted and controlled properly, it will affect pipeline integrity, leading to expensive rectification and intervention work. Freespan analysis consisted primarily of a screening check in which the as-found freespans from Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) or multibeam Side …

Ground Risk Model For Uavs, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper develops an alternative to the ground risk model provided by JARUS SORA. Key inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model are identified, specifically ground risk continuing to increase when there is no further increase in fatality probability.

Population density is a critical component of UAS ground risk. Definitions of population density adopted by various regulatory jurisdictions are reviewed. A categorisation of population density is developed based on official statistics categories for New Zealand. This categorisation is more granular than that provided by SORA, enabling a more nuanced assessment of risk.

A ground risk model is then developed using …

The Rhetorical Art Of Risk Assessment: Lessons From Risk Management In Rural And Tribal Communities, John L. Velat

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Risk assessment, mitigation, and communication rely on data from multiple sources to form a complete understanding of hazards and how to manage them. Experts can use these data to make informed decisions about the nature and extent of risks and inform the public to protect health, the environment, and economic welfare. However, in an effort to objectively make decisions, technical experts and policymakers increasingly rely on quantitative data as the most important determiner of risk, which can alienate the public, limit risk understanding, and delay or miss obvious signals of impending catastrophe. I examine several cases based on my experiences …

Dynamic Rbi With Central Difference Method Approach In Calculation Of Uniform Corrosion Rate: A Casestudy On Gas Pipelines, M.Riefqi Dwi Alviansyah, Fernanda Hartoyo, Zahra Nadia Nurullia, Ari Kurniawan

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings (JMEF)

The oil and gas industry generally uses a piping system to drain fluids. Even though the pipes used have been well designed, the use of pipes as a means of fluid transportation still provides the possibility of failure that can occur at any time, one of which is due to uniform corrosion. The use of standard Risk Based Inspection (RBI) according to the API RBI 581 document has been widely used to anticipate potential failures to pipe components. The use of standard RBI can reduce the risk of failure significantly. Because the standard RBI considers the component risk value to …