Risk Analysis Commons^™

Proof Of Recovery: A Model To Enhance Data Integrity In Data Management Systems, Gustaf Barkstrom

Theses and Dissertations

Businesses lose millions of dollars every year when they can’t restore data from backups. Research shows that Disaster Recovery Plan (DRP) testing is not conducted frequently enough, nor are records maintained that demonstrate full data recovery from backups. This work introduces a design science artifact called PRTOK that aims to increase DRP testing. The design science artifact is a software solution that integrates with Data Management Systems (DMS)

such as iRODS and DSpace, and can work with formats such as HDF5 and BagIt. Proof-of- recovery records, or tokens, are recorded in a replicated, resilient, and indelible proof-of- authority blockchain data …

A Review Of The United States' Long Term War Support Capabilities In The Indo-Pacific Command Region, Brian J. Mullin Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines U.S. maritime transportation readiness in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting fleet age, mariner shortages, shipyard decline, and port vulnerabilities. It also considers contested logistics and technological threats. Recommendations include fleet recapitalization, mariner pipeline growth, port diversification, and defensive upgrades. The study concludes that secure sea line assumptions are outdated and calls for greater resilience, with follow-on efficiency analysis proposed for ports and ships.

Model-Based Approach To Support Safety Driven Design And Satisfy Mil-Std-882e Requirements With Stpa Coordination: A Case History In Suas Defense Acquisition, Daniel A. Shea

Theses and Dissertations

Increasingly complex defense systems that are routinely overbudget and behind schedule are driving digital engineering initiatives in the defense acquisition industry. MBSE offers a solution to counter this issue but the lack of guidance on how to implement it has led to significant experimentation. One MBSE area of interest is system safety. This research demonstrates how to conduct model-based Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to meet the unique system safety process requirements from MIL-STD882E. Based in systems theory, STPA extended for coordination enables a safety-driven design process of complex systems. This research investigated conducting STPA in the SysML-RAAML modeling language …

Construction Change Order Data As Inputs For A Programmatic Risk Model, Eric C. Klein

Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane Michael struck Tyndall Air Force Base as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, damaging or destroying 90% of its infrastructure (484 buildings). This devastation prompted the Department of Defense to rebuild Tyndall as the “Installation of the Future,” encompassing 44 Military Construction (MILCON) projects and 260 Facility Restoration, Sustainment, and Modernization (FRSM) projects. Since reconstruction began, over 630 Change Request Forms (CRFs) have been closed, adding $67.8 million in costs and 4,880 construction days. The Air Force Civil Engineer Center's Natural Disaster Recovery (NDR) Division developed a programmatic risk model to predict future costs and delays. However, …

A Comparative Study Between Soft Structures And Hard Structures For The Protection Of Egypt’S Coastlines Against Climate Change, Donia Eldwib

Theses and Dissertations

Coastal communities worldwide face unprecedented threats from climate change, with rising sea levels, increased storm intensities, and accelerated coastal erosion posing significant risks. Egypt, with over 3,000 kilometers of coastlines along the Mediterranean and Red Seas, it is particularly vulnerable due to its densely populated and economically critical low-elevated coastal zones. With the Mediterranean Sea, and the Nile Delta specifically under huge threats, this study examines the different coastal protection strategies used to address these climate change impacts. Different coastal protection structures have been used throughout the years starting with the well-known hard structures moving on to greener alternatives such …

Optimizing Hub And Spoke Selections For Adaptive Basing In Agile Combat Employment, Alan Heng

Theses and Dissertations

Advancing technologies and emerging competitors within the Indo-Pacific region have rendered the use of fixed installations for United States Air Force (USAF) operations less than optimal for generating airpower. The adoption of Agile Combat Employment (ACE) is imperative and emphasizes a hub-and-spoke model. However, the methodology for selection of contingency locations remains undecided. Current selection of optimal sites hinges on an optimization framework, employing either rank-based or mathematical approaches that consider various criteria to assess and quantify each location. These criteria are then addressed through objectives and constraints, forming the basis for an effective decision-making process. This paper introduces two …

Analyzing Cost Risk In Department Of Defense Program Office Estimates, Todd L. Millard

Theses and Dissertations

This research studies cost risk for Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs during development and has three overarching objectives: 1) analyze the degree of change in cost risk (quantified as risk dollars) as programs mature, 2) analyze the accuracy of cost risk estimates (quantified as risk error) as programs progress, and 3) adopt risk analysis techniques common in the commercial banking industry to analyze cost risk in DoD programs. For the first objective, some evidence of significant positive trends in relative risk dollars is found for ACAT 1, 2, and 3 programs. For the second objective, there is no strong …

Root Cause Analysis For Troop Construction Schedule Delays And Cost Overruns, Richard H. Wilkens

Theses and Dissertations

Troop construction can be an effective tool when a project is simple enough to execute projects in a timely and cost effective manner. However, underlying variables plague these projects causing them to miss anticipated deadlines which in return could make them more costly. Significant variables that convey impact to cost and schedule are Equipment Operating Issues, Edits During Construction, Design Flaws, Lack of Communication, Poor User Coordination, Improper Documentation, Inaccurate Submittals, Low Quality Control, and Lack of Experience. Project engineers and project managers must provide effective continuity as well as improve their own competence and situational awareness to effectively mitigate …

Standardization Of Risk Classifications For Unmanned Space Vehicle Missions, Collin A. Gwaltney

Theses and Dissertations

This paper seeks to model risk classification levels (A-D) for 122 Space Vehicle programs. Models include multinomial logistic regression as well as random forest, a machine learning technique based on decision trees. We use independent variables (IVs) which are theoretically correlated to risk class for the regression and one random forest model. We then include all IVs and allow the random forest technique to use those which provide the most information on risk class before paring down the number of IVs to only 7. We show that the accuracy of predictions increases from 62% to 87% by using random forest …

Radiological Decontamination Methodologies On Litter-Bound Patients In Arctic Environments, And The Associated Airborne Risks Posed To First Responders, Juan S. Alb

Theses and Dissertations

This study was conducted to determine if air-based decontamination (decon) methods would be effective at both treating patients exposed to dry, radiological contamination as well as reducing its re-aerosolization during the disrobing process, such that these methods could be applied on litter-bound patients in extreme cold environments. A litter-bound, full-size mannequin dressed in a set of standard military issue extreme cold weather jacket and pants coated in 27 g (1 Tbs) of Copper Oxide (density 6.315 g/cm³ ) was given one of three treatments for dry aerosol decon. The three cleaning treatments included high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) vacuum, a …

Developing Machine Learning And Time-Series Analysis Methods With Applications In Diverse Fields, Muhammed Aljifri

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation introduces methodologies that combine machine learning models with time-series analysis to tackle data analysis challenges in varied fields. The first study enhances the traditional cumulative sum control charts with machine learning models to leverage their predictive power for better detection of process shifts, applying this advanced control chart to monitor hospital readmission rates. The second project develops multi-layer models for predicting chemical concentrations from ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy data, specifically addressing the challenge of analyzing chemicals with a wide range of concentrations. The third study presents a new method for detecting multiple changepoints in autocorrelated ordinal time series, using the …

Risk Assessments And Modeling Of Driver By Using Risk Potential Theory, Riku Kikuta

Theses and Dissertations

Recently, various self-driving and driving assistance systems such as Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) have been developed with the intent to reduce the number of motor vehicle accidents. While self-driving systems have been proven to reduce traffic accidents, the systems sometimes make other drivers confused because of their mechanical behavior. To avoid confusion and possible error, it is necessary to construct self-driving systems that exhibit human-like behaviors. Risk Potential theory has been used to construct models that successfully represent driver behavior, especially expert behavior. This project uses Risk Potential theory to construct and evaluate a collision avoidance driver model which …

Integrating Steel Slag Aggregates Into Asphalt Paving By Harmonizing Availability, Quality, Economics, And The Environment, Timothy R. Murphy

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides guidance on how to balance matters related to the environmental stewardship, market sources, origin and uses, material properties, performance, and economic impact of using slag materials in pavements. The literature on this topic provides numerous references on the use of slag materials for specific applications, and this thesis aims to make use of those references along with other data from the author to describe slag materials from a holistic perspective and provide some suggestions for balancing several factors that impact optimal use of this resource within pavement structures. Discussion is given to the increased importance of recycling …

Modeling Radiation Exposure On Flight Missions To Analyze Aircrew Risk, Camila V. Quintero Hilsaca

Theses and Dissertations

GCR and SPE comprise the majority of the ionizing radiation experienced in the upper atmosphere within flight-altitude environments. Although previous studies have analyzed radiation doses from single sources on civilian flight operations, there is a lack of research focused on dose received by military personnel during flight from both sources simultaneously. In-flight radiation environments are modeled through the MCNP6 for two separate aircraft, an Air Force A-10 and a Boeing 737. Particle fluence values for galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events for four separate flight paths are determined using the CARI-7A software and the SIRE2 toolkit, respectively. MCNP6 code …

Applications Of Fragile Curves To Water Distribution Networks, Danielle M. Van Lanen

Theses and Dissertations

Water distribution networks are of critical importance to provide uninterrupted services to a city. Not only do they provide potable drinking water to customers they also are used for fire services and other emergency support functions. By the year 2039, the United States’ drinking water investment gap is estimated to grow to $136 billion dollars. As the gap between available funding and funding required, being able to prioritize assets for investments is critical. Unfortunately, water distribution networks are typically managed reactively rather than proactively. This paper showcases a methodology for a proactive approach to asset management through the use of …

Examining Fuel Service System Failures Of The Usaf R11 Using Survival Analysis, Roed M.S. Mejia

Theses and Dissertations

Recent events show that fuel supply is a large contributor to the success or failure of a military operation in response to a contingency. Any future near-peer conflict will stress the supply chain and require fully operational vehicles to be ready for the primary mission sets they support. In the United States Air Force (USAF), the readiness of fuel distribution trucks is crucial to meeting those mission sets in global operations. Utilizing non-parametric and semi-parametric survival models, which do not assume specific probability distributions, this study analyzes maintenance data for R-11 trucks that refuel aircraft.

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Wastewater Treatment Plants And Their Social Vulnerability Differences, David S. P. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

Many of the United States’ major cities that have a high population are located along the coast. The number of people residing in low elevation coastal areas, be-low 10 meters, is increasing. Coastal areas may be affected by various short- and long-term climate hazards, such as sea level rise (SLR). Climate change induced SLR will threaten residents and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. A household’s capacity to respond to hazards is highly dependent on its socio-demographic situation which determines its social vulnerability. Wastewater treatment facilities area particularly critical piece of infrastructure often located in low-lying areas due to gravity fed …

Fragility Of The Florida Panhandle's Electrical Transmission Grid To Hurricanes, Zachary D. Schumann

Theses and Dissertations

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid’s resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Inspection System is a proponent of utilizing a risk-based sampling strategy (RBSS) for conducting inspections from major command levels down to the unit level. The strategy identifies areas deemed most important or risky by commanders and prioritizes them accordingly for an independent assessment by the Inspector General. While Air Force regulation specifies the need to use a RBSS for inspection, the implementation process is delegated to individual commands and, subsequently, wings. The 23rd Wing, the sponsor for this research, directed us to analyze a RBSS tool highlighted as an example from which to adopt for those units …

Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard

Theses and Dissertations

Large and rapidly growing cities and other urban agglomerations have the potential to become incubators of political instability. This is especially true of rapidly growing cities which are located in countries that are also experiencing high rates of growth in their youth population. Rapid growth rates put stress on urban infrastructure and other institutions, and these stresses can cause major problems for both city and national governments. Knowing when these cities and countries may be trending toward their tipping points regarding political instability will help governments and international organizations develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the risk of instability.

Understanding Logistics Airmen’S Risk Information Seeking And Processing During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Extended Prism Framework, Christopher T. Price

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this survey-based research was to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and subsequently played a role into their risk seeking behavior on social media. Specifically, this research tested an expanded Planned Information Risk Seeking Model with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency an intentions to seek information regarding COVID-19.

Analysis Of Non-Conventional Radiological Terrorism, James N. Padgett

Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear terrorism has been a risk since the dawn of the first atomic bomb. Though state sponsored nuclear weapons development is of concern for countries, non-state sponsored terrorism with radiological material can be of even greater concern. This stems from the fact that the material is under less stringent or no safeguards and can readily change hands between different terrorist groups or innocent civilians may accidently come into contact with the material.

Within this paper an analysis of previous accidents using orphan radiological sources, malicious use of orphan radiological sources, and how these sources could be used by terrorists is …

Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham

Theses and Dissertations

Aircrew fatigue in flight operations is a known hazard that has driven the creation of fatigue-reducing regulation and fatigue risk management systems industry wide. In addition, biomathematical models have been created and tested to forecast the effectiveness of aircrew under conditions of time-zone shifts and long duty days. However, limited operational studies exist to validate these models or to help understand how individual factors can affect them. Operational studies have a variety of limitations that make gathering typical data regarding fatigue or sleep difficult. This research takes systems requirement analysis approach to design a study that measures effects of circadian …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Assessment Of Contract Terms And Conditions For Lump-Sum Contracts, Omar Othman

Theses and Dissertations

A Contract is a tool that defines the obligations of the contracting parties and assigns the risk between them. Contracts are usually drafted to meet the interests of the owner by addressing the legal issues and liabilities. Meanwhile, less emphasis is placed on clearly communicating the contract terms and ensuring that all contracting parties comprehend their risks and obligations. In a country like Egypt, which has faced drastic economic and political changes in the past few years, and yet is experiencing a boom in the construction sector, many developers tend to draft contracts that might be legally complicated or lacks …

Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways To Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation And Economic Modeling Framework For Coastal Installations, Alexander J. Baldwin

Theses and Dissertations

Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate …

Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …

An Analysis Of A Hurricane Loss Model, Validation From Tyndall Afb, And Applications For The Air Force, Nestor Hernandez

Theses and Dissertations

Recent reconstruction of infrastructure and its associated cost due to hurricanes justify research into hurricane loss models that can provide a more robust cost estimate. Academic research indicates that hurricane disasters are becoming more frequent and are becoming costlier. This research intends to explore hurricane loss models used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Risk Management Solution (RMS) and Florida State University (FSU). Within the literature review, key components of hurricane loss models were identified. These models and the key components were explored in order to help bring an understanding of loss estimation. The research found that the implementation of …

Using A Field Mill Climatology To Assess All Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, Shane C. Gardner

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the danger and cost of lightning striking a space vehicle, the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) balances between the mission of launching and cessation thereof to minimize the risk of a lightning strike. This process is mediated through a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). To date, no empirical modeling of these rules has been established. To alleviate this shortcoming, this thesis uses the voltage readings of the surrounding CCAFS surface field mills to establish the viability of modeling the entirety of the LLCC rules statistically. Converting approximately 312,000,000 field mill voltage readings …