Risk Analysis Commons^™

Environmental Ethics And Impact Of Artificial Intelligence Data Centers, Jacky Yang

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Data centers, including artificial intelligence (AI) facilities, serve as the backbone for many modern digital services and products. With the rapid digitization of society, the expansion of these centers in the United States has accelerated significantly. From an anthropocentric and utilitarian perspective, they provide economic benefits, supporting employment and generating public revenue. However, they can also create a significant amount of environmental and societal challenges. From an ecocentric and environmental justice perspective, AI data centers has contributed to increased competition for the limited resources, such as water, electricity, and land and has been linked to rising utility costs, noise pollution, …

An Innovative Approach To Real-Time Noise Monitoring And Detection In Airport Ramp Operations, Grace Hamilton, Nicole E. Egan, Anderson Peralta, Deyaneira Rodriguez, Maria G. Valentinez

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Airport ramp personnel are routinely exposed to hazardous noise levels exceeding occupational safety thresholds, increasing the risk of permanent hearing loss, degraded communication, and operational incidents. Traditional ramp noise management relies primarily on periodic monitoring and personnel protective equipment (PPE), which limits real-time hazard recognition and a proactive risk mitigation strategy. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the safety and financial effectiveness of implementing a real-time noise monitoring and detection system within airport ramp operations in alignment with Safety Management System (SMS) principles. A literature review, Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), and financial cost-benefit analysis were conducted to compare …

A System Safety Approach To Assuring Artificial Intelligence Enabled Functions In Civil Aviation, Evan Bear, Quinn Galen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques are increasingly proposed for use in safety-critical civil aviation functions including perception decision support and pilot assistance. Existing aviation safety and certification standards such as ARP4754A and DO-178C were developed under assumptions of determinism explicit requirements and complete behavioral specification which do not directly apply to learning-enabled systems. This mismatch has created uncertainty regarding how artificial intelligence enabled avionics can be safely assured and certified. This paper presents a system safety approach for assuring artificial intelligence enabled functions within existing aviation certification frameworks. In this approach safety assurance is based on explicitly identifying the …

A Hybrid Llm-Srgm Framework For Ai-Enabled Reliability Assessment In Safety-Critical Software Systems, Caleb Stone, Shrenik Jadhav

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Ensuring the reliability of software intensive and safety critical systems is a persistent challenge across aerospace, defense, transportation, and other mis- sion focused domains. Traditional software relia- bility growth models (SRGM) provide useful quanti- tative insight into defect discovery trends, but they rely mostly only on numerical failure data and do not use the rich contextual information contained in test logs, anomaly reports, and engineering notes. This paper presents a hybrid framework that com- bines semantic features extracted by a large lan- guage model (LLM) with a non-homogeneous Pois- son process (NHPP) based software reliability growth model. The LLM analyzes …

Cars Imass - Comparing Llm Vs Human Operator Effectiveness In Multi-Agent Swarm Coordination, Gatlin Nelson

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Title: Dual-Perspective Risk Analysis for Human-LLM Decision Comparison in UAV Swarm Navigation   Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms operating in low-altitude wireless network environments encounter localized disruptions that degrade positioning and navigation metrics. These disruptions are modeled as geographic failure zones with defined boundaries. A UAV discovers a zone by entering it and observing degraded performance on its onboard systems. This work assumes that affected UAVs can autonomously retreat to safety using onboard sensors and focuses on the subsequent rerouting decision. Once recovered, the system generates candidate repositioning points surrounding the vehicle, each scored using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). A human operator …

An Exploration Into Aviation Safety & Security In Nigeria, Hana Marz, Nicholas Degarmo, Kathrine Lopez, Michael Chrisman

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Aviation safety and security standards are fundamental for enabling the reliability and sustainability of aviation operations. Aviation safety and security are influenced by organizational and institutional standards, as well as the application of human factors principles. This paper aims to explore the regional variances of aviation safety and security culture within Nigeria. Nigeria has taken steps to align with international aviation standards, offering insight into how the region shapes its regulatory environment, organizational culture, and how cultural factors affect safety and security practices. However, Nigeria continues to face challenges such as inconsistent regulatory enforcement and limited safety reporting, which impact …

Bridging The Gap: Cybersecurity And Occupational Safety Frameworks In Ai Data Centers, Athena Leader

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Bridging the Gap: Cybersecurity and Occupational Safety Frameworks in AI Data Centers   As artificial intelligence infrastructure expands, AI data centers represent a critical and underexamined convergence of cybersecurity and occupational safety risk. Existing frameworks such as NIST, OSHA, and ISO standards were largely developed in isolation, leaving significant gaps in how organizations manage risks that are simultaneously digital and physical in nature. This study investigates the gaps and overlaps between cybersecurity and occupational safety frameworks as they apply specifically to AI data center environments. Drawing on a targeted literature review of established regulatory and standards-based frameworks, this research identifies where …

Modeling Psychological And Demographic Predictors Of Analog Astronaut Mission Participation, Christian Yeara Herrero, Frányerson R. López Ochoa, Mackenzie Thomas, Phoebe Fleshman

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

As plans accelerate to send humans into orbit and to other celestial bodies, whether to lunar outposts, Mars bases, or commercial space stations, it becomes increasingly important to understand how to maintain healthy, cohesive, and productive crews in confined, isolated environments. A practical way to study human adaptation to these conditions is through analog astronaut missions on Earth. Although imperfect, these facilities provide the closest Earth-based simulation of space mission conditions. Currently, over ten analog research centers are operating worldwide, including NASA’s Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) and the Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog (CHAPEA) habitats. Selecting and recruiting …

Quantitative Assessment Of Cybersecurity Risk Variability Across Transportation Modes, Paulo Carreon

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Transportation systems are increasingly dependent on digital technologies, networked communications, and cyber-physical integration, making cybersecurity an important issue for operational continuity, resilience, and safety. Although cybersecurity risks in transportation are widely recognized, much of the existing research remains mode-specific and lacks a standardized quantitative framework for comparing risk across transportation systems. This study develops a quantitative, incident-based approach for assessing cybersecurity risk variability across four major transportation modes: Aviation, Maritime, Rail, and Road. The study is based on a manually constructed dataset of 189 publicly reported transportation cybersecurity incidents collected from 2000 to 2025. Each incident was coded into structured …

A Data-Driven Framework For Modeling Car-Following Behavior Using Conditional Transfer Entropy And Dynamic Mode Decomposition, Poorendra Ramlall

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

Accurate modeling of car-following behavior is essential for understanding traffic dynamics and enabling predictive control in intelligent transportation systems. This study presents a novel data-driven framework that combines information-theoretic input selection via conditional transfer entropy (CTE) with dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) for identifying and forecasting car-following dynamics. In the first step, CTE is employed to identify the specific vehicles that exert directional influence on a given subject vehicle, thereby systematically determining the relevant control inputs for modeling its behavior. In the second step, DMDc is applied to estimate and predict the dynamics by reconstructing the closed-form expression of …

Artificial Intelligence In Aviation: Benefits, Concerns, And Regulations, Aarohi Srivastava

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly integrated into aviation systems, understanding its implications for safety and regulation is critical. This research examines the current state of AI implementation in aviation, exploring both transformative benefits and significant concerns in this high-stakes environment. AI's strengths, including rapid large-scale data processing, predictive capabilities, and pattern recognition, offer substantial operational advantages. However, these benefits must be balanced against key concerns including liability issues, potential loss of pilot competency through over-reliance, the "black box" problem of AI explainability, emergent system behaviors, and training requirements.  This project analyzes current regulatory frameworks from major aviation authorities including …

Osha’S Knocking! A Descriptive Cross-Sectional Analysis Of Inspections At Private Universities In Florida., Acuna Gonzalez Santiago

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

Section 8 of the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSH Act) empowers OSHA to conduct inspections and enforce standards prescribed in Title 29 of the Code of Federal Regulations; however, limited literature and lack of descriptive statistics exist regarding oversight and inspection patterns across Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in Florida. Assessing these patterns is paramount for aiding higher education stakeholders in evaluating their hazard identification and control techniques. This descriptive cross-sectional study examined OSHA's inspection database — January 1, 2015 to October 20, 2025 — indexed by NAICS code 611310, analyzing all 32 four-year non-profit HEI with at least 1,000 …

A Human Factors Analysis And Classification System (Hfacs) Approach To Compare Cardiovascular, Orthopedics, Trauma Care, And Neurosurgery, Asfandyar Khan

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Background: Despite significant progress in patient safety, human error continues to occur at high rates in procedural settings. Traditional safety models tend to focus on retrospective incident analysis, often overlooking the systemic conditions that allow errors to occur. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) offers a proactive lens to understand how and where errors emerge and is useful for identifying active and latent failures.

Objective: To evaluate the utility and reliability of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) in categorizing and comparing the pattern of frequencies (events) in cardiovascular, orthopedic, trauma care, and neurosurgical procedure.

Design, …

Resilience Engineering Via Bifurcation And Ecological Network Analysis: Demonstrated In An Electric Power Case Study, Rogelio Gracia Otalvaro

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Modern systems are increasingly complex, interconnected cyber-physical systems that combine digital controls with physical infrastructure. This integration, along with the constant introduction of new technologies and actors into the network, enables reliable operation but introduces vulnerabilities to unexpected and varied disruptions and cascading failures, making resilience a critical concern. Traditional risk management and resilience assessment methods often struggle with the nonlinearity and dynamic behavior of these systems. This dissertation proposes a novel approach combining Bifurcation Analysis (BA) and Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) to enhance the understanding and improvement of system resilience. BA, a mathematical method from dynamical systems theory, is …

An Operational Field Study: A Comparison Of Piloting Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles And Uncrewed Aircraft Systems, David Thirtyacre, Joseph Cerreta, Pete Miller, Kimberly Luthi, Jolee Thirtyacre

Publications

and operations, the ability to cross-train personnel in both Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles and Small Uncrewed Aircraft System operations has become a focal point for efficiency and workforce optimization. This study presents a comparative analysis of the operational and human factor considerations involved in piloting mini UUV and sUASs, highlighting the key similarities and differences in control methods, environmental influences, navigation, emergency procedures, and situational awareness. A qualitative experimental field study was conducted between July 2024 and October 2024, involving real-world deployments of both systems in maritime and aerial environments. Findings indicated that while UUV and sUAS operators relied on remote …

Going Airborne: Kent State's Pioneering Leap Into Integrated Advanced Air Mobility, Jason T. Lorenzon

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

This proposal centers on the development of a Concept of Operations in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). Kent State University's College of Aeronautics and Engineering is poised to pioneer the integration of drones and electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) systems, bridging the gap between its campus and airport by transporting students and faculty the 3NM distance from campus to the airport and back by a UAV. Beyond a standard research initiative, this proposal signifies a groundbreaking effort to reshape the landscape of educational aeronautics and Advanced Air Mobility and Urban Air Mobility. Our overarching goal is to transcend conventional boundaries …

Assessing Past Airworthiness Directives And How Safety Management Systems May Benefit Aviation Product Design And Manufacturing, Damon Lercel, Manoj Patankar, Richard Steckel

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) continues to promulgate Safety Management Systems (SMS) across aviation organizations when it recently issued SMS requirements for EASA certificated Part 145 maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) organizations and Part 21 Design & Manufacturing (D&M) organizations. Currently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has no such rule in place for these U.S.-based organizations, which may challenge those doing business in countries where EASA policies apply. Given that a majority of the United States’ D&M and MRO population is made up of smaller organizations, it is likely a U.S. SMS regulation will require justification of the …

Airspace Saturation And Midair Collision Risk: A Case Study At A Class D Airport, Luigi Raphael I. Dy, John H. Mott

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Near midair collisions are precursor events to actual collisions and may be an indicator of risk. While previous studies have used reports of near midair collisions to relate factors such as airspace saturation to near midair collisions, the reports relied upon were generally subjective in nature. With the adoption of automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), the approximate position of every equipped aircraft can be recorded. A six-month case study was performed at the Purdue University airport to relate the number of 1000-foot proximity events to airspace saturation, and whether the Class D airspace affected this relationship. Through a logistic regression analysis, …

Ground Risk Model For Uavs, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper develops an alternative to the ground risk model provided by JARUS SORA. Key inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model are identified, specifically ground risk continuing to increase when there is no further increase in fatality probability.

Population density is a critical component of UAS ground risk. Definitions of population density adopted by various regulatory jurisdictions are reviewed. A categorisation of population density is developed based on official statistics categories for New Zealand. This categorisation is more granular than that provided by SORA, enabling a more nuanced assessment of risk.

A ground risk model is then developed using …

Mybody Safety System, Diego Draguicevich, Nicholas Rodriguez

Discovery Day - Prescott

To any university, the safety of students, faculty, and staff when on campus is paramount. To enhance safety, many campuses have “safety stations” of some sort scattered throughout. However, campuses such as Embry-Riddle Prescott also have hiking trails nearby. Safety pillars on hiking trails would be prohibitively expensive to build and maintain, and would also be less useful due to a longer response time for security officers. The MyBody System seeks to resolve these issues by introducing a system which is affordable, self-enclosed, solar powered and easy to maintain. The system would achieve this via custom wireless speakers disguised as …

Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Commercial unmanned aircraft systems continue to increase in applications and diversity; however, mishaps and accidents erode safety, investment return, and efficiency. Most unmanned aircraft accidents are preceded by leading indicators; the ability to forecast and quantify these may provide increased safety and profitability. This mixed-method research study used a non-experimental parallel convergence approach with multiple instruments, multiple-case study n = 22, and one exemplar case design to develop a quantum safety metric program. This study used a combination of previously validated methods as development instruments, including; the HFACS, STAMP, 'Sierra Scale,' and Accident Prevention Effort equations. The study extended the …

Predicting Pilot Misperception Of Runway Excursion Risk Through Machine Learning Algorithms Of Recorded Flight Data, Edwin Vincent Odisho Ii

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The research used predictive models to determine pilot misperception of runway excursion risk associated with unstable approaches. The Federal Aviation Administration defined runway excursion as a veer-off or overrun of the runway surface. The Federal Aviation Administration also defined a stable approach as an aircraft meeting the following criteria: (a) on target approach airspeed, (b) correct attitude, (c) landing configuration, (d) nominal descent angle/rate, and (e) on a straight flight path to the runway touchdown zone. Continuing an unstable approach to landing was defined as Unstable Approach Risk Misperception in this research. A review of the literature revealed that an …

Developing A Taxonomy For Success In Commercial Pilot Behaviors, Kristine Kiernan, David S. Cross, Mark Scharf Ph.D.

Publications

Human error has been well studied in aviation. However, less is known about the ways in which human performance maintains and contributes to aviation safety. The lack of data on positive human performance prevents consideration of the full range of human behaviors when making safety and risk management decisions. The concept of resilient performance provides a framework to understand and classify positive human behaviors. Through interviews with commercial airline pilots, this study examined routine airline operations to evaluate the concept of resilient performance and to develop a taxonomy for success. The four enablers of resilient performance, anticipation, learning, responding, and …

Dynamic Delegated Corridors And 4d Required Navigation Performance For Urban Air Mobility (Uam) Airspace Integration, Trong Van Nguyen

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

Increased traffic congestion on urban road networks has impacted the travel time for commuters in highly populated urban centers. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is recognized as a system that transports the passenger and air cargo from any location to any destination within a metropolitan area. UAM may offer a solution to the problematic issue of automobile urban surface transportation congestion. However, the predicted significant growth in the demand for integration of UAM operations into the existing airspace system in the next 20 years and beyond may exceed the capacity of current air traffic control (ATC) system resources, particularly the ATC …

Analysis Of Runway Incursion Trends: Implications For Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Mitigation Investments, David C. Ison

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This causal-comparative and correlation study investigated the costs of runway incursion safety improvements in relation to their effectiveness to assess potential aviation system benefits.Two airports (Los Angeles International and Dallas-Ft. Worth International), which were early adopters of Runway Status Lights (RWSL), a runway incursion technology, were targeted in this analysis. Findings indicated that there were no significant differences in counts or rates of Category A, B, and D incursions at LAX and DFW when comparing the time periods before versus after RWSL installation. Category C counts and rates were found to have increased significantly after RWSL installation. The findings of …

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data …

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors …

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …

The Mars Desert Research Station - Erau Crew 160 Expedition, Lycourgos Manolopoulos, Ashley Hollis-Bussey, Hiroki Sugimoto, Cassandra Vella, John Herman, Marc Carofano

Student Works

The Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) is a research program which is owned and operated by the Mars Society. The MDRS is located in Hanksville, Utah which hosts simulations that are typically two weeks long for professional scientists and engineers as well as college students of all levels, in training for human operations specifically on Mars. This space analog facility is in isolation, allowing for rigorous field studies regarding research that represents a true mission as if the crew members are conducting a real expedition on Mars. Participants are assigned specific roles and tasks that are typically aligned with their …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …