Risk Analysis Commons^™

An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright

Theses and Dissertations

Each year the Air Force awards weapon system contracts worth billions of dollars using the source selection process. In the source selection, performance and risk assessments are evaluated to determine the best proposal; the proposal that gives the best overall value. The purpose of this research was to investigate the performance/risk trade-off in the source selection decision making process. The study also examined the effect individual risk propensities and the nature of item being evaluated have on the performance/risk trade-off decisions. Air Force acquisition personnel stationed at Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, who had participated in a source selection …

A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald

Theses and Dissertations

This study refines risk analysis procedures for trichloroethylene (TCE) using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate random sets of model parameters, based on the mean, variance, and distribution types. The procedure generates a range of exposure values for human excess lifetime cancer risk of lxl0 (exp-6), based on the upper and lower bounds and the mean of a 95% confidence interval. Risk ranges were produced for both ingestion and inhalation exposures. Results are presented in a graphical format to reduce reliance on qualitative discussions of …

A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis assesses the risk of the health liabilities from exposure to toxic metals found in the composted material of Air Force municipal solid waste (MSW). The goal is to determine the probability that the composted MSW could be a health hazard if it were used as a soil amendment. The research limited the assessment of the exposure risk to heavy metals found in raw MSW and its resulting compost. The thesis uses reviews of present literature to examine the food and soil ingestion exposure pathways. These pathways are assessed using the heavy metal concentrations found in MSW compost and …

Development Of A Cost-Effectiveness Methodology To Prioritize Environmental Mitigation Projects, Robert E. Thompson

Theses and Dissertations

A cost-effectiveness prioritization methodology was developed using concepts from the cost-effectiveness technique. The new methodology called the Cost-Effectiveness methodology (CEM) allows the prioritization of mitigation projects across broad categories of hazardous sites as would be ranked among the offices of the Environmental Protection Agency. Two performance criteria were incorporated into the process--rank projects that save the most lives per dollar and enhance general applicability across different categories of risk. A metric was developed that represents the ratio of lives saved per dollar spent on mitigation alternatives of contaminated environmental sites. This metric was incorporated into the CEM to distinguish mitigation …

Development Of A Knowledge Based System For Wastewater Pipeline Failure Risk Assessment, Adam Mayanzani Ngaliga

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to study and analyze the wastewater pipeline failure risk assessment process, and then design and develop an effective and efficient wastewater pipeline risk assessment tool for the Hampton Roads Sanitation District, in Virginia, U.S.A. A knowledge based system was developed using an expert system building shell (Xi-Plus).

The system design is based on the knowledge elicited from the experts and literature in sanitary pipeline failure risk evaluation. The knowledge base contains both heuristics and procedural rules. The system interprets the information provided by the user and reasons from that information to reach conclusions on …

Economic Impacts Of Noxious Facilities: Incorporating The Effects Of Risk Aversion, Leslie A. Nieves

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The author suggests an integrative approach for projecting economic impacts of facilities that elicit public Risk aversion. She incorporates both economic stimulus effects and perception-based effects of facilities on the host area economy. Empirical findings are compared and an impact estimation framework is suggested for integrating psychometric and econometric techniques.

Large Capacity Missile Carrier (Cmx), C. N. Calvano, J. M. Berner, J. M. Bradley, K. A. Tosiello, D. T. Hooker, C. F. Merrill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A systems engineering approach to the development of a radically different kind of surface combatant ship is presented, followed by a preliminary design of the ship shown by the analysis to be most effective. The requirement for the project was the development of a ship which would provide a major increase in the missile firepower of a battlegroup. The study conducts an analysis of four warfare scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of replacing some Aegis ships with the missile carrier (CMX) and examines the relative utility of varying missile loads for the CMX. An alternative is chosen for further development …