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Articles 1 - 30 of 47
Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis
Application Of Real Field Connected Vehicle Data For Aggressive Driving Identification On Horizontal Curves, Arash Jahangiri, Vincent Berardi, Sahar Ghanipoor Machiani
Application Of Real Field Connected Vehicle Data For Aggressive Driving Identification On Horizontal Curves, Arash Jahangiri, Vincent Berardi, Sahar Ghanipoor Machiani
Psychology Faculty Articles and Research
The emerging technology of connected vehicles generates a vast amount of data that could be used to enhance roadway safety. In this paper, we focused on safety applications of a real field connected vehicle data on a horizontal curve. The database contains connected vehicle data that were collected on public roads in Ann Arbor, Michigan with instrumented vehicles. Horizontal curve negotiations are associated with a great number of accidents, which are mainly attributed to driving errors. Aggressive/risky driving is a contributing factor to the high rate of crashes on horizontal curves. Using basic safety message data in connected vehicle data …
Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin
Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …
Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton
Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear of …
Reliability-Based Designs Procedure Of Earth Retaining Walls In Geotechnical Engineering, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio, Julio E. Canon
Reliability-Based Designs Procedure Of Earth Retaining Walls In Geotechnical Engineering, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio, Julio E. Canon
Articles
The design and construction of foundations, retaining structures and slopes are usually based on deterministic formulations that do not allow the distinction between the natural variability and the inherent dispersion in the geotechnical parameters. Due to the inherent variability of the soil properties, there is a growing trend to implement reliability-based designs in geotechnical engineering to reduce design uncertainties by probabilistic methods. The reliability designs require the definition of the probability density functions of the geotechnical properties, as well as knowledge of the spatial variability of soils. This paper identifies the procedures, type of soil investigations, simulations and the most …
High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris
High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris
Department of Integrated Science and Technology - Faculty Scholarship
The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable. Intense …
Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner
Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner
Doctoral Dissertations
Deep uncertainties resulting from climate change, demographic pressures, and rapidly evolving socioeconomic conditions are challenging the way that water planners design and operate large-scale infrastructure systems. Conventionally, water infrastructures have been developed using stationary methods, assuming that the underlying uncertainties can be derived from historical data or experience. However, these methods are less useful under deeply uncertain climate and socioeconomic conditions, in which the future can be substantially different from the past and cannot be expressed by well-defined probability distributions. The recognition of deep uncertainties in long-term water resources planning has led to the development of “decision-analytical” frameworks that do …
Design And Risk Assessment Of Liftoff Water Rocket System For K-12 Stem Education And Outreach, Alex Christley, Heather Rachford
Design And Risk Assessment Of Liftoff Water Rocket System For K-12 Stem Education And Outreach, Alex Christley, Heather Rachford
Von Braun Symposium Student Posters
No abstract provided.
Quantitative Analysis Of Regenerative Energy In Electric Rail Traction Systems, Mahmoud Saleh, Oindrilla Dutta, Yusef Esa, Ahmed Mohamed
Quantitative Analysis Of Regenerative Energy In Electric Rail Traction Systems, Mahmoud Saleh, Oindrilla Dutta, Yusef Esa, Ahmed Mohamed
Publications and Research
This paper aims at determining the influential factors affecting regenerative braking energy in DC rail transit systems. This has been achieved by quantitatively evaluating the dependence of regenerative energy on various parameters, such as vehicle dynamics, train scheduling, ground inclination and efficiency of the electrical devices. The recuperated power and energy have been presented by a mathematical model, comprising of a set of empirical forms, which allows for thorough analysis. A detailed simulation model of a typical DC-traction system has been developed to validate the developed empirical forms. The results verified the validity of the proposed mathematical model, and demonstrated …
Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart
Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart
International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace
As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …
Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju
Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju
Faculty Publications
Autonomous Vehicle technology is quickly expanding its market and has found in Silicon Valley, California, a strong foothold for preliminary testing on public roads. In an effort to promote safety and transparency to consumers, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has mandated that reports of accidents involving autonomous vehicles be drafted and made available to the public. The present work shows an in-depth analysis of the accident reports filed by different manufacturers that are testing autonomous vehicles in California (testing data from September 2014 to March 2017). The data provides important information on autonomous vehicles accidents’ dynamics, related to the …
Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim
Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim
Jian Liu
This study examined neighborhood safety as perceived by children (mean age=10 years) and their mothers, and its association with children's physical activity. For all eight safety items examined, children perceived their environment as less dangerous than mothers (p<0.05). None of the multiple regression models predicting children's physical activity by safety perceptions were significant (p>0.10). The maternal perception model explained the highest percentage of variance (R2=0.26), compared to the children's perception model (R2=0.22). Findings suggest that future studies should explore relations between self-reported and objectively measured safety barriers to Hispanic youth walking and cycling.
A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu
A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu
Jian Liu
No abstract provided.
Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart
Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart
Jian Liu
Slip-induced fall accidents have been recognized as a serious threat to the health of the elderly.The objective of the current study was to investigate the aging effect on the biomechanical reactions of both perturbed foot and unperturbed foot to the unexpected slips. Nineteen younger (mean age: 25.0 years old) and twenty-one older (mean age: 71.2 years old) adults were involved in a laboratory study,in which slippery surface was induced during walking without their awareness.The reactive responses of both slipping foot and unperturbed foot were quantified by optical motion capture system and force platforms.The results indicate a characteristic toe-touch strategy by …
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
Bullion
Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.
Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo
Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo
Bullion
The National lnsurance Commission (NAICOM) is the statutory Regulatory body of insurance business created to ensure the effective administration, supervision and regulation of insurance business and regulate transactions between insurers and reinsurers within and outside Nigeria. FSS 2020 Insurance Sector, in collaboration with NAICOM aims to deepen the insurance market; ensure lnsurance credibility and protect policy holders; Embed governance and risk management framework for the lnsurance Companies; Enhance access to finance (financial inclusion) with business development support and new products; and risk-based capitalization of lnsurance Companies.
A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili
A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili
Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications
A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R …
Study On Site Selection Of Ship Refuge In Zhanjiang Sea Area, Yu Fu
Study On Site Selection Of Ship Refuge In Zhanjiang Sea Area, Yu Fu
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Analysis Of Challenges And Risks For Chinese Shipowners In The Implementation Of Bwm Convention, Qianqian Li
Analysis Of Challenges And Risks For Chinese Shipowners In The Implementation Of Bwm Convention, Qianqian Li
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
The Research Of Maritime Search And Rescue Personnel To Their Own Security And Risk Aversion, Lei Liu
The Research Of Maritime Search And Rescue Personnel To Their Own Security And Risk Aversion, Lei Liu
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Research On Maritime Traffic Risk Prejudgment And Accident Causation Analysis Of Laotieshan Channel, Meng Lv
Research On Maritime Traffic Risk Prejudgment And Accident Causation Analysis Of Laotieshan Channel, Meng Lv
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
A Study On Vessel Deficiency Risk Assessment Based On Psc Inspection Data From Tokyo Mou, Jingfeng Wang
A Study On Vessel Deficiency Risk Assessment Based On Psc Inspection Data From Tokyo Mou, Jingfeng Wang
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Research On Optimal Allocation Of Oil Spill Contingency Resources Base On Oil Spill Risk Assessment In Taizhou Port, Liangyu Wang
Research On Optimal Allocation Of Oil Spill Contingency Resources Base On Oil Spill Risk Assessment In Taizhou Port, Liangyu Wang
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Study On Safety Escort Of Lng Carriers In Port Water Area, Lei Wang
Study On Safety Escort Of Lng Carriers In Port Water Area, Lei Wang
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Research On The Risk Assessment Of Typhoon Preventing For Ships In Wenzhou Waters, Kun Yang
Research On The Risk Assessment Of Typhoon Preventing For Ships In Wenzhou Waters, Kun Yang
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Risk Assessment Of Ship Navigation In Bridge Areas, Miao Yu
Risk Assessment Of Ship Navigation In Bridge Areas, Miao Yu
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Study On The Safety Analysis Of Navigation Environment In Caofeidian Port, Wancheng Yue
Study On The Safety Analysis Of Navigation Environment In Caofeidian Port, Wancheng Yue
Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)
No abstract provided.
Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort
Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort
Karim Hardy
Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la perte de dix-neuf sapeurs-pompiers de …
Development Of An Unmanned Aerial System For Radiation Mapping In Nuclear Facilities, Jackson Ball, Guangying Jiang, Robert Bean
Development Of An Unmanned Aerial System For Radiation Mapping In Nuclear Facilities, Jackson Ball, Guangying Jiang, Robert Bean
The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium
Efficiently planning a decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) operation at a nuclear facility requires detailed information on the conditions present. In the wake of a disaster, or just years of abandonment, a facility’s layout may have dramatically changed, making previous facility drawings unreliable, and radioactive particles may have been spread over the site, contaminating equipment and structures. Rather than tasking workers with mapping and characterizing the contamination, which can take days or weeks and poses a health and safety risk to the workers, mapping the site and locating contamination can be done remotely by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which would …
Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri
Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri
Karim Hardy
This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.
Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy
Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy
Karim Hardy
Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.