Risk Analysis Commons^™

Evaluating Species At Risk In Data-Limited Fisheries: A Productivity-Susceptibility Analysis For Marine Aquarium Fish, Gabrielle A. Baillargeon, Alice A. Wynn, Jemelyn Grace P. Baldisimo, Michael F. Tlusty, Andrew L. Rhyne

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The marine aquarium trade (MAT) is a significant global industry harvesting millions of wild-caught, live coral reef fishes for public and private aquaria markets in the United States and Europe annually, while supporting fisher livelihoods in the Indo-Pacific. This diverse and species-rich trade is considered data-limited, creating barriers to quantifying the current and future socio-ecological sustainability of the fishery. We present a revised and expanded productivity–susceptibility analysis (PSA) that serves as a holistic risk assessment to estimate the vulnerability of marine aquarium fish to overfishing. Our global analysis includes 306 species that are actively in trade. Improvements to the PSA …

A Critical Perspective On The Society Of Environmental Toxicology And Chemistry's Adherence To Founding Principles— Opportunities For The Future, Barnett A. Rattner, Annegaaike Leopold, Carys L. Mitchelmore, Glenn W. Suter, Mark S. Johnson, Adriana C. Bejarano, Lawrence A. Kapustka, Niranjana Krishnan, Derek C. G. Muir, Beatrice O. Opeolu, Martha Georgina Orozco-Medina, April Reed, Bruce W. Vigon, Adam R. Wronski

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) is a global organization whose mission is the advancement of environmental science and management through collaboration, leadership, communication and education. On SETAC's 45th anniversary, the following question was raised: Are the 1979 founding principles of SETAC, multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems, multisector engagement and scientific objectivity, still useful, adequate and effective in fulfilling its mission? In a special session held at the 45th Annual Meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, United States, a critical evaluation of the founding principles was initiated by reviewing SETAC's history and ongoing activities, and recommendations were made …

Gis-Based Swat Modeling For Surface Runoff Assessment To Support Urban Flood Resilience In Central Java, Indonesia, Putri Amalia Sholichah Ms., Endah Sulistyawati, Susana Paulina Dewi

Smart City

Surface runoff significantly contributes to environmental hazards such as floods in Indonesia, including in Borobudur District. Based on watershed delineation, the administrative area of Borobudur District is predominantly located within the Sileng Subwatershed. The rehabilitation zones managed by PT Adaro Indonesia are located in several specific areas within this subwatershed. This study utilizes the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model integrated with GIS (Geographic Information System) to simulate surface runoff quantitaively in the Sileng subwatershed, part of the Progo watershed in Central Java Province. SWAT is applied in this research to simulate surface runoff in both watershed and …

Toward The Application Of Natural Language Processing In Electronic Health Record Analysis For Taxonomy Development, Latoya Mcdonald

All Dissertations

Electronic health records (EHRs) are pivotal resources for nurse practice because they increase the timeliness and reliability of patient information at the point of care and support access by multiple healthcare providers and the individual patients themselves. However, it is widely recognized that data extraction from EHRs is challenging due to the variability in the language used in clinical care notes and the lack of standardized terminology across healthcare systems. The broad objective of this dissertation is to develop taxonomy-based classification models for nursing care by applying feature engineering approaches to EHRs that include nursing care of ostomy patients following …

Adaptation For Whom? Understanding The Impacts Of Dyke Policies On Small-Scale Farmers In Ca Mau Province Of Vietnam, Nguyen Minh Quang, Nguyen Van Minh, Nguyen Vo Chau Ngan, Martha B. Lerski

Publications and Research

Low-lying deltas worldwide are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise. As the risks of climate-induced flooding become increasingly clear, the thirst for infrastructure-driven adaptation increases. This highlights a patent need to understand the impacts of engineering adaptation solutions, especially those targeting built structures such as dykes and sluices, on farmers from a bottom-up, farmer-centred perspective. The study addresses this call by examining cases where dyke policies, while successful in some dimensions, have undermined small-scale farmer livelihoods in Ca Mau ― Vietnam’s southernmost rural province. It identifies areas in need of attention and adds empirical data related to this group of farmers. …

Confronting Indecision, Lane Allison Murray

ENGS 15.11: Design and Education

This course aims to increase students' understanding of indecision and how to confront it. The class provides insight into how the fear of the unknown holds people back from making decisions and about understanding one's values as a means to combat indecision. Students and teachers alike explore instances of indecision and evaluate their own impulses & thought processes by reflecting on the deeper reasons for their choices. Students will increase their comfort level of asking themselves and their peers questions about the values that guide them and, in doing so, strengthen their relationships with themselves and others.

Ai And Ml-Based Risk Assessment Of Chemicals: Predicting Carcinogenic Risk From Chemical-Induced Genomic Instability, Ajay Vikram Singh, Preeti Bhardwaj, Peter Laux, Prachi Pradeep, Madleen Busse, Andreas Luch, Akihiko Hirose, Christopher J. Osgood, Michael W. Stacey

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Chemical risk assessment plays a pivotal role in safeguarding public health and environmental safety by evaluating the potential hazards and risks associated with chemical exposures. In recent years, the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and omics technologies has revolutionized the field of chemical risk assessment, offering new insights into toxicity mechanisms, predictive modeling, and risk management strategies. This perspective review explores the synergistic potential of AI/ML and omics in deciphering clastogen-induced genomic instability for carcinogenic risk prediction. We provide an overview of key findings, challenges, and opportunities in integrating AI/ML and omics technologies for chemical risk assessment, …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Integrating Sensor Development, Risk Assessment, And Community Engagement To Support Environmental Justice In The Rural Community Of El Tiple, Colombia, David Bahamon Pinzon

All Dissertations

In Colombia, ethnic communities have traditionally been responsible stewards of natural resources. They recognize the importance of these resources for their livelihood, as well as their ancestral and cultural heritage. El Tiple, a rural Afro-Colombian community, has been affected by the incursion of private corporations that promoted the expansion of sugarcane monocrops in their territory. Since the introduction of the monoculture industry, local freshwater sources have been depleted due to intensive water use for irrigation of the sugarcane crops. Additionally, the intensive usage of agrochemicals has been linked with loss of native flora, damages to family farms, and pollution of …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Open-Field Scale-Model Experiments Of Fire Whirls Over L-Shaped Line Fires, Yuto Iga, Kazunori Kuwana, Kozo Sekimoto, Yuji Nakamura

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

This paper presents the results of open-field scale-model experiments of fire-whirl formation over line fires. L-shaped line fires were burned in crosswinds, and the processes of fire-whirl formation were observed. The flame height was measured using an image-processing technique, while two-dimensional velocity components were measured at two different locations using ultrasonic anemometers. Two tests were selected for comparison: test A, in which intense fire whirls repeatedly formed, and test B, in which no whirls were observed. In test A, the wind flow was bent by the fire plume, creating swirling flows near the burning area, thereby forming fire whirls. On …

Effect Of Reduced Plume Entrainment On The Burning Rate Of Porous Fuel Beds, Sara Mcallister

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

Large outdoor fires often exhibit unexpected fire behavior, particularly compared with much smaller fires. Understanding the difference between large- and small-scale fires is of importance for both fire behavior predictions and safety. Large fires are often characterized by very tall plumes that can extend to the stratosphere. Particularly as the actively burning area increases, plumes in large-scale fires likely entrain relatively little and may act in a similar fashion to a chimney. To explore the possible changes in burning rate due to the chimney effect, experiments were conducted with wood cribs burned with a chimney of variable height. The burning …

A Study On Fire Hazards Of Oil Tanks In Urban Areas With Scale Model Experiments, Ho Yin Ng, Yu Wan, Wan Ki Chow

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

Large fuel tanks are located in an urban area of Tsing Yi in Hong Kong, giving potentially high risks to people living nearby if a fire was to occur. Scale modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the potential of fire hazards. Propanol pool fires with five different scales of oil tanks were studied first. Appropriate tank sizes were then put in a 1/2500 architectural scale model on the Tsing Yi Island to study a fuel tank fire. Results show that the heat and smoke from a fire would affect occupants staying in areas near to the fuel tanks. Fire …

Ventilation & Masks: Reducing Airborne Transmission Of Covid-19 In A Classroom, Eric A. Schiff

SyracuseCoE

We've calculated the number of COVID-19 infections that will be spread from a single COVID-19 "superspreader" to students and teachers in a classroom shared for 4 hours in different ventilation and masking conditions.

Assessment Of Unmanned Aerial Systems And Lidar For The Utility Vegetation Management Of Electrical Distribution Rights-Of-Ways, Matthew R. Walker

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Utility Vegetation Management (UVM) is often the largest maintenance expense for many utilities. However, with advances in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS; or more commonly, “drones”) and lidar technologies, vegetation managers may be able to more rapidly and accurately identify vegetation threats to critical infrastructures. The goal of this study was to assess the utility of Geodetics’ UAS-lidar system for vegetation threat assessment for 1.6 km of a distribution electric circuit. We investigated factors which contribute to accurate tree crown detection and segmentation of trees from within an UAS-lidar derived point cloud, and the factors which contribute to accurate tree risk …

Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

The prevention of sports accidents must rely on a detailed knowledge of accident circumstances and risk factors. Today, very few studies have investigated in depth non-fatal drowning incidents that have occurred in public swimming pools (PSP). Learning from incidents seems likely to advance the knowledge of accident scenarios. This research study aimed to capture minor incidents that might identify safety lessons and preventive measures. Incidents of minor and major aquatic events were collected from four PSPs that had hosted 700,000 bathers per year. About 800 incidents and 300 aquatic rescues performed by lifeguards were recorded within a time frame of …

Capital Efficiency For Development Stage Biotech-Based Firms: An Ipo Perspective, Mark J. Ahn, Amir Shaygan

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Access to multiple tranches of capital is critical for predominantly no revenue development stage biotech firms. While financing needs are monotonically increasing over multiple years in the product development approval cycle, the market for high risk, milestone driven biotech investment is significantly more volatile than the financial markets as a whole. In this paper, we analyzed the role and relative importance of global biotech IPOs, as well as other sources of capital such as strategic alliances, for research and development funding. We also explored and assessed the degree of mismatch between the access to capital, operational efficiencies, and how firms …

Management Strategy Evaluation: Transdisciplinary And Transparent Natural Resource Management, Eileen Hofmann, Lisa Maddison, Ingrid Van Putten

CCPO Publications

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) is a modelling tool used to evaluate sufficiently realistic simulations of potential policy choices in complex systems. As a contribution to the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project IMBIZO V, which occurred in October 2017, a workshop was convened with the goal of developing a coherent understanding of best-practice approaches for MSEs. MSEs are becoming standard approaches to characterizing risk across fisheries management organizations globally. MSEs are important tools that aid in delineating objectives, costs, and constraints that define risk and provide a possible mechanism to meet assessment challenges. The MSE workshop considered case studies drawn …

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data …

Environmental Risk, Resource And Production, Nancye Gannaway

Farm Systems and Economics published reports

Plan Prepare Prosper - workshop

Aims

• To identify and plan for projected changes in weather patterns and in the physical resources that underpin the productivity of the farm enterprise.
• To develop initiatives to manage observed and likely threats from the environment to farm enterprises.
• To support the achievement of long-term economic viability of land under production

Today's content will help develop risk management strategies for agricultural production systems.

A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross

Yale Day of Data

Post-market surveillance is a collection of processes and activities used by product manufacturers and regulators, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety and effectiveness of medical devices once they are available for use “on the market”. These activities are designed to generate information to identify poorly performing devices and other safety problems, accurately characterize real-world device performance and clinical outcomes, and facilitate the development of new devices, or new uses for existing devices. Typically, a device is monitored by comparing adverse events in the exposed population to a matched unexposed population. This research considers …

A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén

NSBWO

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool …

Experiments To Measure The Effects Of Timber Harvesting Equipment On Surface Lithic Scatters, Douglas J. Baughman

All Master's Theses

The importance of cultural resource preservation cannot be overstated; however local economies are at least as important. Due to conservative archaeological site protection practices in Region 5 of the United States Forest Service, the economy of Northeastern California is being adversely affected. In an attempt to help the Forest Service make more informed management decisions and improve the Northeastern California economy, I undertook experiments on the effects of timber harvesting on lithic scatters on Modoc National Forest. The experiments involved placement of 225 glass tiles (proxy lithics) in each of three plots subject to vehicle traffic and log dragging by …

Slides: Groundwater Law And Administration: From Conflict To Reform, Michael A. Gheleta

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Michael A. Gheleta, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck LLP, Denver, CO

14 slides

Slides: Modifying Prior Appropriation: The Spectrum Of Experiences, Adam Schempp

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Adam Schempp, Environmental Law Institute, Washington, DC

12 slides

Slides: Next Evolutionary Steps In State Instream Flow Programs, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Lawrence J. MacDonnell, attorney and consultant, Boulder, CO

27 slides

Slides: Rethinking Western Water Law: Restoring The Public Interest In Western Water Law, Mark Squillace

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Mark Squillace, Director, Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado Law School

20 slides

Slides: Economic Incentives For Demand Reduction, Christopher Goemans

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Christopher Goemans, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, Colorado State University

17 slides

Slides: Indian Water Rights, Robert T. Anderson

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Robert T. Anderson, Native American Law Center, University of Washington Law School

19 slides

Slides: Challenges For Reclamation: A Western States' Perspective, Craig Bell

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Craig Bell, Western Water States Council, Midvale, Utah

9 slides