Risk Analysis Commons^™

Past Present, & Future: Bushwick Inlet Redevelopment, Aaryan Nair

Publications and Research

This report examines how ecosystem structure, hydrology, and material flows in Williamsburg, Brooklyn have changed from pre-colonial conditions to the present and how they are expected to evolve under future climate change. Prior to European colonization, the landscape functioned as a forest–wetland mosaic with high infiltration capacity, slow water movement, and strong nutrient retention. These conditions supported stable aquatic ecosystems and minimized pollutant transport to the East River.

Modern urbanization has fundamentally altered this system. Impervious surfaces and engineered drainage systems have shifted hydrology from infiltration-dominated to runoff-dominated pathways, producing rapid “flashy” flows and reducing water residence time.

Storm events …

From Flames To Change: An Exploration Of Housing, Fire, And Inequity, Helen Underhill, Charles R. Jennings, Brian Meacham, Danielle Antonellis

Publications and Research

Housing and fire safety are deeply connected: inadequate and poorly maintained housing poses heightened fire risk for occupants. An individual or household’s housing situation (including limited or constrained choice) interacts with issues such as affordability, access, location, quality, safety, occupancy levels, tenure type, and resident or immigration status. These dynamics shape vulnerability, and inequity becomes most visible in the event of a fire. The extreme end of this spectrum includes the unhoused, who occupy structures entirely outside of regulatory systems with little or no fire protection.

Adaptation For Whom? Understanding The Impacts Of Dyke Policies On Small-Scale Farmers In Ca Mau Province Of Vietnam, Nguyen Minh Quang, Nguyen Van Minh, Nguyen Vo Chau Ngan, Martha B. Lerski

Publications and Research

Low-lying deltas worldwide are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise. As the risks of climate-induced flooding become increasingly clear, the thirst for infrastructure-driven adaptation increases. This highlights a patent need to understand the impacts of engineering adaptation solutions, especially those targeting built structures such as dykes and sluices, on farmers from a bottom-up, farmer-centred perspective. The study addresses this call by examining cases where dyke policies, while successful in some dimensions, have undermined small-scale farmer livelihoods in Ca Mau ― Vietnam’s southernmost rural province. It identifies areas in need of attention and adds empirical data related to this group of farmers. …

Data Driven Bridge Deck Deterioration Modeling And Maintenance Intervention Scheduling, Deepak Kumar

Dissertations and Theses

Majority of over 617,000 bridges across the United States are significantly impacted by environmental factors, aging materials, and heavy traffic loads. According to the 2021 Infrastructure Report, nearly 231,000 bridges require repair or preservation work, with 46,154 (7.5%) being classified as structurally deficient, thereby posing risks for mor than 178 million daily trips across these bridges. Despite recent improvements, 42% of U.S. bridges are at least 50 years old, underscoring an urgent need for increased investment to meet repair demands. The nation’s backlog of bridge repairs is estimated at $125 billion, with a 58% increase in annual spending required to …

Containerization Of Seafarers In The International Shipping Industry: Contemporary Seamanship, Maritime Social Infrastructures, And Mobility Politics Of Global Logistics, Liang Wu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation discusses the mobility politics of container shipping and argues that technological development, political-economic order, and social infrastructure co-produce one another. Containerization, the use of standardized containers to carry cargo across modes of transportation that is said to have revolutionized and globalized international trade since the late 1950s, has served to expand and extend the power of international coalitions of states and corporations to control the movements of commodities (shipments) and labor (seafarers). The advent and development of containerization was driven by a sociotechnical imaginary and international social contract of seamless shipping and cargo flows. In practice, this liberal, …

Understanding The Impacts Of Extreme Weather On The Power Transmission Infrastructure: A Machine Learning Approach To Quantifying Risks And Enhancing Grid Resilience, Juan P. Montoya Rincon

Dissertations and Theses

This doctoral dissertation focuses on the resilience of power transmission infrastructure in tropical coastal environments, particularly in the face of extreme weather events such as hurricanes. The research is anchored on the case of the passage of Hurricane Maria in the Island of Puerto Rico in September of 2017 which caused the largest damage on the power infrastructure in US history. As such, the research investigates the interaction between extreme winds and power transmission infrastructure in complex terrain, aiming to quantify and predict power loss and damage to the infrastructure during such events. The study employs a comprehensive approach combining …

Climate Change Impact On Bridge Scour Risk In Ny State: A Gis-Based Risk Analysis Model, Muhammad Hassan Butt

Publications and Research

Bridge scour, the primary cause of bridge failure in the United States, escalates post-severe storms, necessitating effective mitigation. This study employs a GIS-based risk analysis model to assess climate change's impact on bridge scour and associated risks in New York State. Data from the National Bridge Inventory, climate hazard maps, and geospatial data are integrated.

Types Of Cyber Attacks And Incident Responses, Kaung Myat Thu

Publications and Research

Cyber-attacks are increasingly prevalent in today's digital age, and their impact can be severe for individuals, organizations, and governments. To effectively protect against these threats, it is essential to understand the different types of attacks and have an incident response plan in place to minimize damage and restore normal operations quickly.

This research aims to contribute to the field by addressing the following questions: What are the main types of cyber-attacks, and how can organizations effectively respond to these incidents? How can the incident response process be improved through post-incident activities?

The study examines various cyber-attack types, including malware, phishing, …

Exploring Information Leakage In Historical Stock Market Data, Edison Hua

Dissertations and Theses

Information leakage is a major concern for traders who want to execute large orders without affecting the market price. In this paper, we explore the sources and effects of information leakage in historical stock market data using various methods and metrics. We first define information leakage as a pattern caused by a trader that would otherwise not occur without the trader’s activity. Using historical data, the direct impact of a potential large trade cannot be measured, but we consider a minimal impact large trade to be one that minimizes changes to the established trading data. We then analyze how information …

On A New Framework For Detecting, Classifying, And Forecasting Floods For Large-Scale Flood Risk Analysis, Equisha Glenn

Dissertations and Theses

Increasing trends in flooding events are projected to continue as climate changes have increased the chance of extreme weather events. Given the significant, damaging impacts of extreme floods, the ability to effectively model floods is crucial for risk management and mitigation of the impacts of these extreme flooding events. This dissertation presents a new framework for detecting and predicting large-scale flood risk in the United States using climate information. This methodology categorizes regional, simultaneous floods into an index that is used to forecast the risk of extreme flooding a season ahead. The index proposed herein, named the Spatial Flood Index …

Association Of X-Ray Absorptiometry Body Composition Measurements With Basic Anthropometrics And Mortality Hazard, Nir Y. Krakauer, Jesse C. Krakauer

Publications and Research

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is a non-invasive imaging modality that can estimate whole-body and regional composition in terms of fat, lean, and bone mass. We examined the ability of DEXA body composition measures (whole-body, trunk, and limb fat mass and fat-free mass) to predict mortality in conjunction with basic body measures (anthropometrics), expressed using body mass index (BMI) and a body shape index (ABSI). We used data from the 1999–2006 United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), with mortality follow-up to 2015. We found that all DEXA-measured masses were highly correlated with each other and with ABSI and …

The Free Education Project: Higher Education Funding, E2 Implementation, And Crowdsourcing Crypto Development, Louis Carter, John R. Ziegler, Ovidui Purice, Edward Lehner Ph.D.

Publications and Research

This short paper, written in three different sections, explores how a cryptocurrency’s issuance and network effects could fund higher education. Synthesizing research from the Bronx Community College Cryptocurrency Research Lab, Bernard Lietaer’s notion of creating money for the needs of society, lessons learned by Galia Benartzi and the Hearts Project, and an exploration of how communities coalesce around open-source cryptocurrency projects, the authors provide an overview of the problem of funding higher education, the ways in which money that is needed could be created, and the key components to building a highly effective developer community. These three distinct yet vitally …

An Overview Of Smartwater Management System: Strategic Potential In Bangladesh, Muhammad Qumrul Hassan, Mir F. Karim, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Jowaher Raza

Publications and Research

Water loss management is becoming an increasingly important as supplies are stressed by population growth or water scarcity. A SmartWater system ensures optimum consumption and prediction of future water use. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries due to global climate change considering its rapid urbanization, inequitable land use, low income and greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. Agricultural lands used for cropping and livestock rearing are more susceptible to degradation than non-agricultural lands. Most farmers irrigate through flooding, losing up to 75% of water to evaporation and creating a substantial drawdown of much needed water for …

The Status Of Engineering Geology: Constraints On Infrastructure Development In Bangladesh, Mir Fazlul Karim, Muhammad Qumrul Hassan, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Masud Ahmed, Belal Ahmed Sayeed

Publications and Research

In recent years, megacity Dhaka is known to have one of the fastest urban population growths in Bangladesh. The population in Dhaka and other megacities has increased from 7 to 50 million during the last four decades. The rapid rate of urban population growth, along with the extreme paucity of real-estate for new infrastructure development or upgrading existing facilities, is already exacerbating the situation for the city planners and exerting tremendous pressure to come-up with viable solutions. Although practice of engineering geology, geotechnical exploration, and testing exists in Bangladesh; the system has still yet to adopt controlled quality standards with …

The Challenges Of Geotechnical Exploration In Bangladesh For Sustainable Urban Development And Risk Reductions In Engineering Geology, Mir Fazul Karim, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Muhammad Qumrul Hasson, A.T.M. Shakhawat Hossain

Publications and Research

Bangladesh is a unique example of rapid urbanization where the urban population increased from 5 to 58 million in last four decades. Due to complex geology and active tectonic setting, the urban ground is impacted by fluvio-deltaic processes and regional seismicity. The densely populated cities of the country are facing risks from many natural hazards like floods, tidal surge, riverbank and coastal erosion, scour, landslides, soil collapse and foundation failures. Geologists anticipate severe seismic threats from yet-undefined tectonic structures and seek to determine their consequential geo-structural responses and conformance to the national building code. With rapid growth, demands on infrastructure …

Quantitative Analysis Of Regenerative Energy In Electric Rail Traction Systems, Mahmoud Saleh, Oindrilla Dutta, Yusef Esa, Ahmed Mohamed

Publications and Research

This paper aims at determining the influential factors affecting regenerative braking energy in DC rail transit systems. This has been achieved by quantitatively evaluating the dependence of regenerative energy on various parameters, such as vehicle dynamics, train scheduling, ground inclination and efficiency of the electrical devices. The recuperated power and energy have been presented by a mathematical model, comprising of a set of empirical forms, which allows for thorough analysis. A detailed simulation model of a typical DC-traction system has been developed to validate the developed empirical forms. The results verified the validity of the proposed mathematical model, and demonstrated …

Guidance Index For Shallow Landslide Hazard Analysis, Cheila Cullen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most frequent hazards on slanted terrains. They lead to considerable economic losses and fatalities worldwide. Intense storms with high-intensity and long-duration rainfall have high potential to trigger rapidly moving soil masses due to changes in pore water pressure and seepage forces. Nevertheless, regardless of the intensity-duration of the rainfall, shallow landslides are influenced by antecedent soil moisture conditions. To the present day, no system exists that dynamically interrelates these two factors.

This work establishes a relationship between antecedent soil moisture and rainfall expressed in the form of a Shallow Landslide Index (SLI) at 1km …

A Decision Model For Recommending Which Building Occupants Should Move Where During Fire Emergencies, Norman E. Groner

Publications and Research

This paper describes a decision model for managing the movement of building occupants during fire emergencies. Currently available guidance from standard practice, egress modeling, codes and the re-search literature, is too general to provide much help to persons charged with the responsibility of where groups of occupants should be located given a fire scenario. The occupant movement decision model described in the paper uses three basic yes–no questions to divide building occupants into groups during a fire emergency. For any particular group, the decision model recommends one of two basic actions:(1) people remain where they are already located; or, (2) …