Risk Analysis Commons^™

Analyzing Cost Risk In Department Of Defense Program Office Estimates, Todd L. Millard

Theses and Dissertations

This research studies cost risk for Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs during development and has three overarching objectives: 1) analyze the degree of change in cost risk (quantified as risk dollars) as programs mature, 2) analyze the accuracy of cost risk estimates (quantified as risk error) as programs progress, and 3) adopt risk analysis techniques common in the commercial banking industry to analyze cost risk in DoD programs. For the first objective, some evidence of significant positive trends in relative risk dollars is found for ACAT 1, 2, and 3 programs. For the second objective, there is no strong …

On Uncertainty For Ill-Posed Robot Decision Problems, Jared Joseph Beard

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

As robots adopt more real world responsibilities, they will be expected to solve more complicated problems. In some cases limited prior knowledge will result in unmodelled environmental conditions; in others, multiple users may have competing perspectives on how to frame a decision problem. Many existing frameworks, namely Markov decision processes (MDP) presuppose users have identified a specific problem with models sufficient to solve or learn a problem. If we wish to extend MDPs to novel problems or those heavily dependent on user feedback, autonomous decision makers must be able to identify limitations in how a given problem is framed and …

A Decision-Making Approach To Reduce The Risk Of Measurement Uncertainty For Product Size, Mostafa Awadalla Sedeek, Fatma Abdallah Elerian, Ossama Badie Abouelatta, Mona. A. Aboueleaz

Mansoura Engineering Journal

The measurement uncertainty has a significant impact on quality control processes. This is particularly true of standards that are assessed to determine if a product is compliant. This ambiguity introduces two potential risks of decision-making: accepting a non-conventional product (the consumer's risk) or rejecting a conventional product (the producer's risk). This investigation explores the potential for false decisions caused by measurement errors in product assessments. By studying data near the control limits, a greater understanding of the manufacturing process is intended to facilitate informed decision-making, and guide the implementation of effective quality control methods. The investigation highlights the importance of …

Risk Management In A Vuca Environment: Some Key Considerations, Foo S.L., Nam Sang Cheng, Nam Sang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Whatis VUCA? Why is it relevant to accountants, the C-suites and Board ofDirectors? Companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies and the rewards are risks. Critical concepts in thisprocess are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), a trendymanagerial acronym that conflates the reality of the business environment and the challenges ofrisk management.

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Rani Kady

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the survey of both fundamental and most recent publications in system-of-systems, business and insurance, as well as risk analysis, modeling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk in recognition of emergence and complexity which characterizes many systems within the concern of engineering and business managers. The ultimate goal is to provide engineering and business managers the necessary perspective on the concept of risk and in its management for the next generation of sustainable systems - including various descriptions of risk and discussion of the relevance of properties of system-of-systems …

Goal Approach To Risk Scenario Identification In Systems Development, Cesar Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Rafael Landaeta

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the exploration of fundamental issues in identifying risk scenarios during systems development. Systems development refers to a series of processes which span conceptualization, designing the architecture, obtaining the elements, and eventually integrating all these elements into the fully developed final system. For truly sustainable and green systems, identifying risk scenarios early and continuously over the system development processes is vital. This paper contains various descriptions of risk from the project (i.e. programmatic) and technical perspectives, an exploration of the generally accepted risk management process, and how these relate to systems development through system goals. …

Slides: Indian Water Rights, Robert T. Anderson

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Robert T. Anderson, Native American Law Center, University of Washington Law School

19 slides

Slides: Groundwater Declines, Climate Change And Approaches To Adaptation, Katharine Jacobs

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Katharine Jacobs, Director of the Arizona Water Institute, University of Arizona

37 slides

An Integrated Risk Analysis Methodology In A Multidisciplinary Design Environment, Katrina R. Hampton

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability.

The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are …

Extracting Consistent Weight Ratio Matrices From Inconsistent Judgement Matrices., Christian Alphonce

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The Analy,'ic Hierarchy Process (AHP) developed by Saaty Inore (han a decade ago has been widely applied in diverse decision making problenls ranging from socio-economic planning to engineering designs. One of the basic steps of this popular decision support tool is concerned with estimating a ratio scale of a set of entities from their inconsistent pairwise comparison judgement matrix. A number of estimation procedures for this purpose have been proposed. These include Saaty's eigenvector meihod, various geometric means methods, and methods using logarithmic least squares, least squares. and means Transformanons, amongst O,'hers. One Thing conunon to all these Inethods is …

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"