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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand Dec 1996

An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand

Theses and Dissertations

Rocket launches at Vandenburg Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Station produce exhaust clouds containing several toxic by-products, including HC1 and A12O3. These clouds rise to atmospheric stabilization heights, and then start dispersing and diffusing through the air. Upon reaching the ground, concentration levels of the toxins may present a human health risk. To predict these risks and concentration levels, range officials use a computer program titled the Rocket Effluent Exhaust Diffusion Model (REEDM). The version currently in use has been shown to underpredict the stabilization height of the exhaust cloud. This thesis examines the theory and algorithms used …


Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis Techniques To Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs, Alejandro Hinojos Dec 1996

Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis Techniques To Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs, Alejandro Hinojos

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of remediation resources have been consumed by costly and lengthy remedial investigation studies to characterize the human health risk. Unable to deal directly with the uncertainty resulting from the convolution of the uncertainties in a multitude of variables, and heavily persuaded by the liabilities, decision makers and regulators have relied on conservative assumptions and more studies to take appropriate actions. The main objective of this research is to provide tools and techniques to aid risk analysts in determining whether it would be beneficial to gather additional information or whether the decision to take an appropriate action can be …


An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham Dec 1996

An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham

Theses and Dissertations

As the Air Force has progressed and succeeded in the realm of pollution prevention, the opportunities for further progress have become more challenging. With the 'low-hanging fruit' now gone from the pollution prevention tree, new methods to identify opportunities must be adopted. This research effort applied a subset of activity based costing, activity driver analysis, to reveal pollution prevention opportunities in regards to hazardous materials usage. A sample of base organizations (civil engineering and aircraft maintenance), and a sample of the hazardous chemicals (Class C or most hazardous) used by those organizations were investigated to determine the drivers behind usage.


Evaluation Of Hazardous Material Life Cycle Cost Tools For Use In Air Force Hazardous Material Pharmacies, Rowene J. Resler Dec 1996

Evaluation Of Hazardous Material Life Cycle Cost Tools For Use In Air Force Hazardous Material Pharmacies, Rowene J. Resler

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on evaluation of various tools that assist in the selection of hazardous material substitutes. Substitute material consideration is a function of the Hazardous Material Pharmacy (HMP) when a hazardous material is requested for purchase and use in a current base operation. The substitute material decision is complex, involving identification of potential substitutes and then comparison of factors, such as cost, performance, and environmental effects, between the potential substitute and the material being requested. Various tools such as life cycle cost models, databases, and other information services can provide assistance to HMPs making substitution decisions.


Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim Dec 1996

Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim

Theses and Dissertations

Previous work on personnel airdrop problems involving jumpers has been (1) event-oriented entanglement rates, (2) number of canopy bumps, (3) landing injuries, and (4) deaths. The thesis expands this area of research by developing cumulative distribution functions of maximum possible chute entanglement risk for the C-17 using bootstrap techniques. By comparing the effects of various C-17 aircraft configurations on the entanglement CDF, this thesis shows that under certain configurations the risk of centerline entanglement for the C-17 is less than for the C-141.


Development Of A Basis For A Hazardous Materials And Waste Management System For Air Force Contingency Deployments, Christopher J. West Dec 1996

Development Of A Basis For A Hazardous Materials And Waste Management System For Air Force Contingency Deployments, Christopher J. West

Theses and Dissertations

Increased awareness of the potential for adverse mission impact on deployments, recent experience on such deployments, and Air Force and Major Command interest establish the need for an integrated hazardous materials and waste management system for contingency environments. This research was focused toward establishing a basis for developing such a system. An intensive literature review was accomplished to justify the necessity of the research, characterize the contingency environment, review legal and regulatory requirements, review proper hazardous substance handling and processing procedures, and review existing and new material resources which may be employed in such a system. Further literature review led …


An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Risk Alignment And Cost Performance, Christopher M. Wegner Sep 1996

An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Risk Alignment And Cost Performance, Christopher M. Wegner

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the relationship between risk alignment and cost performance in DoD procurement. Both the government and the contractor conduct independent assessments of the perceived risk in a contract. The results of inaccurate risk assessments are undesirable consequences, one of which is the inability to achieve cost targets. If both the contractor's and the government's perceptions of risk are in alignment with the actual risk involved in a contract, then we would expect minimal impact. If, however, either or both parties fail to accurately assess the actual risk, then we would expect consequences, such as cost overrun/underrun. The level …


Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman Mar 1996

Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Energy is focusing a long-term development effort on producing cheaper, safer, and faster state-of-the-art soil remediation technologies. To assist with the management of these innovative technology development projects, ways of quantifiably measuring technical risk were investigated through a detailed literature review. 'Technical risk' was defined in this study as the combination of the consequences of undesired events and their likelihood. Careful design of the inputs into a technology selection decision support system accounted for the uncertainty in forecasting final characteristics of remediation technologies still in the early phases of R&D. Experts made subjective probability estimates of these …