Risk Analysis Commons^™

Predicting Hospitalization Risk Of Schizophrenia Patients In Missouri, Arun Kumar

Theses

Understanding the factors that contribute to the risk of hospitalization among individuals with schizophrenia is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes. In this study, we used recent Medicaid adminis trative claims data in Missouri (from 2016 to 2019) and predicted the risk of hospitalization of patients diagnosed with Schizophrenia (N=143446). We ana lyzed the association between previous hospitalizations and the likelihood of future hospitalizations. We developed machine learning techniques, including logistic re gression and decision tree classifiers, to predict the risk of hospitalization based on demographic factors, clinical variables, and historical hospitalization records. Our findings reveal that …

Development Of Dynamic Risk-Based Inspection Using Forward Difference Approach For Pipe Failure Due To Uniform Corrosion, Jaka Fajar Fatriansyah, Zahra Nadia Nurullia, Andreas Federico, Dedi Priadi

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

The oil and gas industry is one of the world's largest and most influential energy contributors. All aspects involved in the operation of this industry are fundamental to be reviewed and managed correctly, especially by preventing or minimizing the failures that could occur. Uniform corrosion is the most common component failure mechanism that can cause failure in the oil and gas industry. The company's actions in managing and preventing the risk of this type of failure have a major role in the sustainability of the company due to the possibility of more significant impacts if the risk cannot be handled …

Automated Visualization Pipeline For Near Real-Time Risk Management System, Paris Joslin

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

In modern society, technological capabilities and the amount of data readily available to users continue to grow exponentially. Many have adopted these new capabilities but lack the infrastructure needed to efficiently utilize high-powered software and programs. Without a method to collect, store, and process large datasets in real-time, individuals and businesses can quickly become overwhelmed, inhibiting effective decision-making processes. There is potential to improve decision-making abilities by enhancing the computing infrastructure. To accomplish this task, we will explore the ideas surrounding High Performance Computing (HPC) and data visualization software. High Performance Computing is the ability to process data and perform …

Definition And Detection Of Hypervulnerabilities Using A Framework For Assessing Port Resilience, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen, Francesco Longo

VMASC Publications

Long term plans for maritime ports are identifying investments that will increase their capacity while decreasing their environmental footprint and operating costs. These changes are leading to increases in complexity at a time when leaner practices are driving investments to become more strategic. As such, this work proposes a generalized definition that allows a system or entity to be classified as exceedingly vulnerable by comparing it to other entities. This definition is developed from a set of definitions gathered from disparate fields. From this definition grounded in theory, the initial rules for complex system implementation are developed and demonstrated on …

Conceptual Development Of A Probabilistic Graphical Framework For Assessing Port Resilience, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen, Francesco Longo

VMASC Publications

Technological advances such as cyber physical systems and autonomous vehicles combined with increased disruptions including the Covid-19 pandemic and coastal natural disasters have heightened the importance of port risk analysis methodologies and frameworks that can accurately quantify and optimize resilience. This work presents the conceptual development of a novel combination of analysis methodologies linking a probabilistic graphic approach on a network of risk events with a functional dependency approach on a system network. Key advantages of these two methodologies are the ability to model and learn causal interactions rather than simply correlations and a high level of computational efficiency. This …

Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

The prevention of sports accidents must rely on a detailed knowledge of accident circumstances and risk factors. Today, very few studies have investigated in depth non-fatal drowning incidents that have occurred in public swimming pools (PSP). Learning from incidents seems likely to advance the knowledge of accident scenarios. This research study aimed to capture minor incidents that might identify safety lessons and preventive measures. Incidents of minor and major aquatic events were collected from four PSPs that had hosted 700,000 bathers per year. About 800 incidents and 300 aquatic rescues performed by lifeguards were recorded within a time frame of …

Measuring Risks Of Interdependencies In Enterprise Systems: An Application To Ghana’S Salt Enterprise, Yaw Mensah

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the use of Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA) for modeling risks resulting from dependencies among elements of enterprise systems with application to salt processing enterprise in Ghana. FDNA was developed to model dependencies among members of enterprise systems by highlighting two dimensions of dependency: strength and criticality. Nonetheless, the concepts and analytics for these two dimensions of dependencies needed further development and generalization in the context of project management and systems development in developing countries.

Managing risks within the interdependency in enterprise systems through integration will help improve global economic growth. Coherent theory for enterprise integration must …

A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R …

A Risk Based Approach To Node Insertion Within Social Networks, Chancellor A. J. Johnstone

Theses and Dissertations

Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a primary tool for counter-terrorism operations, ranging from resiliency and influence to interdiction on threats stemming from illicit overt and clandestine network operations. In an ideal world, SNA would provide a perfect course of action to eliminate dangerous situations that terrorist organizations bring. Unfortunately, the covert nature of terrorist networks makes the effects of these techniques unknown and possibly detrimental. To avoid potentially harmful changes to enemy networks, tactical involvement must evolve, beginning with the intelligent use of network in filtration through the application of the node insertion problem. The framework for the node insertion …

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have become very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment etc.). The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol®, an innovative remediation process. Risk analysis is carried out through the application of STPA (STamP-based Analysis). This article is organised into three sections. The first describes the Novosol® process for …

Emerging M&S Application In Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Michael Mcshane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

There has been compelling signs of the great potential of building further synergy with academics, researchers, and industry practitioners from the areas of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) managing risk events. This paper provides an introduction to risk management and how M&S has permeated the risk management process. The trend has been to harness the advantages of M&S tools and techniques in terms of efficiency and effectiveness in managing risks. However, the more important contribution of M&S may be in how it provides a way for specialists in various disciplines or industries interact to manage risks that require multi-disciplinary approach. This …

Co-Operation In Health And Safety: A Game Theory Analysis, Sylvie Nadeau

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] “Health and safety managers face complex challenges in today’s production environments. They are confronted with increasingly flexible, autonomous and polyvalent contexts. Asymmetry of information on the workplace is widespread because various intervening parties rely on information lacking conformity. Social partners generate and use information which supports or benefits their pursuit of differing goals. Ascertaining and controlling this information can prove both difficult and costly. When addressing health and safety issues, one intervening partner alters or changes behavior in response to changes introduced by the other side. Strategic behaviors result, based on post-contract opportunism (moral hazard) and alliances with partners …

Reply To Dr. Tengs’ Response, Lisa Heinzerling

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "The primary aim of my article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Misuse in the Debate Over Regulatory Reform” was to dispel the myth that had grown up around the studies Dr. Tammy Tengs published with Dr. John Graham: that is, the idea that government regulation is responsible for, in Dr. Graham’s words, the “statistical murder” of 60,000 people in the United States every year. As I demonstrated in my article, nothing in the work of Drs. Tengs and Graham supports Dr. Graham’s recurring charge of statistical murder through regulation. And nothing in Dr. Tengs’ response to my article casts …

A Response To Lisa Heinzerling's Article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions And Their Misuse In The Debate Over Regulatory Reform”, Tammy O. Tengs

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "I am writing in response to Lisa Heinzerling's article “Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Misuse in the Debate Over Regulatory Reform,”1 published in the Spring 2002 issue of Risk: Health, Safety & Environment. Dr. Heinzerling comments on two papers that my colleagues and I, affiliated with the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, produced as part of research funded by the National Science Foundation over a decade ago. The first is the article “Five-Hundred Lifesaving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness,” published in the journal Risk Analysis in 1995. In this article we described the cost per year of lives saved of …

An Integrated Risk Analysis Methodology In A Multidisciplinary Design Environment, Katrina R. Hampton

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability.

The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

Scientific Method, Anti-Foundationalism, And Public Decision-Making, Kristin Shrader-Frechette

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

An examination of the legitimacy of attacks on lay assessments of environmental or other technological Risk. The case is made that rational policy requires an epistemology in which what we believe about Risk is bootstrapped onto how we should act concerning Risk.