Risk Analysis Commons^™

Categorizing High Energy Laser Effects For The Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual, James A. Markham

Theses and Dissertations

With the high risk and cost in fielding High Energy Laser (HEL) weapon systems, the development process must include computer simulation models of weapon system performance from the engineering level up to predicting the military worth of employing specific systems in a combat scenario. This research effort focuses on defining how to measure lethality for HEL weapons in an Advanced Tactical Laser (ATL) scenario. In order to create an effective measure for direct comparison between the emerging laser weapon system and existing conventionally delivered weapons, lase time in seconds is presented as a measure comparable to rounds required to cause …

Determining A Relationship Between Foreign News Media Reports Covering U.S. Military Events And Network Incidents Against Dod Networks, Jason D. Jaros

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the nature of the relationship between foreign news media and network incidents against DoD networks. A rank correlation was performed between the number of network incidents against DoD networks and foreign news media reports covering U.S. Military events. Further analysis was conducted to determine the key terms used in the contents of foreign news media reports for the months the reports were significantly correlated with network incidents. Several significant correlations were found between various combinations of regions and categories of network incidents. However, the correlations were only moderate and the key terms only led to a slightly …

Selection And Application Of Distorted Risk Measures, Edwin J. Offutt

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops and illustrates a methodology for the selection of probability distributions and distortion functions associated with risk scenarios resulting from military capability shortfalls. Distorted (or transformed) risk measures are analyzed and applied to account for loss scenarios that may occur with low frequency but result in catastrophic outcomes. After reviewing the rudimentary concepts of distortion, four well-known continuous distributions, suitable for modeling risk scenarios, are chosen using defined criteria. Based on subject matter expert inputs, a simple method for assigning exactly one of the four distributions to any risk scenario is proposed. Four parametric distortion functions from the …

An Historical Analysis Of Factors Contributing To The Emergence Of The Intrusion Detection Discipline And Its Role In Information Assurance, James L.M. Hart

Theses and Dissertations

In 2003, Gartner, Inc., predicted the inevitable demise of the intrusion detection (ID) market, a major player in the computer security technology industry. In light of this prediction, IT executives need to know if intrusion detection technologies serve a strategic purpose within the framework of information assurance (IA). This research investigated the historical background and circumstances that led to the birth of the intrusion detection field and explored the evolution of the discipline through current research in order to identify appropriate roles for IDS technology within an information assurance framework. The research identified factors contributing to the birth of ID …

An Analysis Of Information Assurance Relating To The Department Of Defense Radio Frequency Identification (Rfid) Passive Network, Robert G. Giovannetti

Theses and Dissertations

The mandates for suppliers to commence Radio Frequency Identification tagging set by Wal-Mart and the Department of Defense is changing this long-time rumored technology into reality. Despite the many conveniences to automate and improve asset tracking this technology offers, consumer groups have obstinately opposed this adoption due to the perceived weaknesses in security and privacy of the network. While the heated debate between consumers and retailers continues, little to no research has addressed the implications of security on the Department of Defense Radio Frequency Identification network. This thesis utilized a historical analysis of Radio Frequency Identification literature to determine whether …

A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis Of Stakeholder Values To Identify Watershed Improvement Needs, Jason R. W. Merrick, Gregory S. Parnell, Jamison Barnett, Margot Garcia

Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Publications

The paper describes the use of multiple objective decision analysis to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the quality of an endangered watershed and guide future efforts to improve the quality of the watershed. The Upham Brook watershed is an urban watershed that lies at the interface of declining inner city Richmond, Virginia and growth-oriented Henrico County. A section of stream within the watershed has been identified as so dangerously polluted that it threatens the health of the residents who live within the watershed boundaries. With funding provided by the National Science Foundation, the Upham Brook watershed project committee was formed to …

Software Development Project Risk Management: A Literature Review, Kevin Macg. Adams, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The rapid and unprecedented growth in software has brought with it some of the most spectacular and costly project failures in modern history. How risk management is presented in the scholarly journals may give insight into the risk management methods and techniques in use on software development projects. This paper provides a glimpse into the risk management methods, methodologies and techniques available to those who are responsible for software development projects by conducting a non-experimental content analysis. The findings reveal that risk management has not received sufficient attention and does not appear to be widely accepted within the software engineering …

Hydrographic Aspect Of Chole Bay, Mafia Island, Alfonse Dubi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Mafia has been a port on the monsoon trade routes from the Arabia to Sofala for almost 2000 years. The Island has not changed significantly since ancient times and retains a traditional culture of fishing and subsistence agriculture. By 1991, development of tourism on the Island seemed very slow. Factors limiting the number of visitors include lack of adequate travel connections between the island and the mainland, and inadequate and poor hotel services. Currently, accessibility to Mafia Island has improved. Mafia Island can now be reached by air in addition to the traditional sea travel. However, the Island does not …

Participatory Evaluation And Improvement Of Cassava Processing Machines For The Eastern Zone Of Tanzania, V Silayo

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Cassava processing machines previously introduced in Tanzania were chippers and graters of the International Institute Of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) design. Popularization of such machmes in Tanzania required thorough participatory testing with stakeholders. When tested with farmers in Muheza and Kibaha districts average throughputs were 11-18 kg/h, 752 kg/h and 270 kg/hfor the manual chipper, engine-powered chipper and the engine-powered grater, respectively. Despite their low throughputs the manual chipper and the grater were Veo difficult to operate, and therefore demanded improvement. Improvement on these machines included modifications on the design for increased throughput, ease of operation and safety. The improved machines …

Energy Meter Reading And Tampering Protection Through Powerline Communication Channel, S Naiman

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

POwer utility companies have suffered revenue losses due to uncollected bills and energy tampering for many years. The use of powerline communication to overcome the problems has been proposed. This needs tampering detection and transceivers capable of communicating data through poww•line channel. This paper identifies different methods Of tampering, presents simulated results for tampering detection scheme and proposes a Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS) wilh Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) transceiver design for energy metering as a solution to the problem. The choice of DSSS-BPSK modulation scheme is based on its robustness and its ability to spread signal inro wide …

Short-Term Scheduling Of A Hydro-Thermal System Using Linear Programming Technique, A Kyaruzi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The paper discusses the short term scheduling of Hydrothermal for Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO) Power System. The problem is to determine on hourly interval the Hydro and Thermal generation. The scheduling keeps balance between production and consumption in a reliable and economical way during the study period. Linear programming (LP) mathematical model using MATL4B has been developed. The constraints are hydrological balance, thermal power plants limitations and load requirements. The result from LP solution gave low operation cost. Generation was mainly from hydro and all reservoirs elevation was high at the end ofplanning period.

Information And Communication Technology Applications In The Tanzanian Health Sector, M Victor

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The potential role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in the health sector is to improve the delivery of health services and would also help to deal with major constraints in uplifting the health standards Of Tanzanians. ICT in heath can be used to facilitate remote consultation, diagnosis and treatment. The objective Of the study was exploratory in nature and aimed at determining the awareness level of the länzanian health sector on various ICT applications which could be used in the sector. The study also aimed ar establishing the challenges to the implementation of ICT in the Tanzanian health sector. …

Usefulness Of Technology Life Cycle In Tanzania: The Case Of The Ipl Developed Technologies, Abdallah Chungu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This study sought to identify the adoption rate of technologv innovations developed by the Institute Of Production Innovation (IPI) at the University Of Dar-es-Salaam since 1984 to 1997 using a sigmoid shaped curve (S-shaped curves) to predict the life cycles of the respective technologies. Depending on the stimuli imparted to the specific technology, some of such technologies for instance, cinva ram and block making machines with hollow/spacer/louver exhibited longer life period as indicated by a series Of infer-connected S-curves. Other technologies including but nor limited to sunflower oil processing kit-winnowers, scorcher with one stove, seed roller, standard wheelbarrow, and manual …

Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Approximate Methods In The Analysis Of Plane Frame Structures, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

pproximaic methods of analysis are widely used in the analysis OJ' frames for preliminary design due to their simplicily as compared to exact analysis meth o ds Ough they a re nol as accurate. In this paper. the methods Of hinges and portal frame are described and have been used to analyze a statically indeterminate frame by taking inro account the bending stiffness of the frame members. The obtained results are comparable Io the magnitudes of forces determined by exact methods Of analysis.

Analysis Of Power Takeoff Shafts To Prevent Injuries/Fatalities, Naomi Bronson

Morehead State Theses and Dissertations

A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Science and Technology at Morehead State University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Science by Naomi Bronson on November 1, 2004.

Mathematical Simulation Of The Influence Of Volatile Ma•Rrer Cloud On Heterogeneous Ignition Of Single Coal Particles, Hassan Ratal Ambula

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Asimple model has been developed to predict the heterogeneous ignition temperature for single coal particles under conditions of negligible, natural and forced convections. These conditions cause different sizes Of volatile matter cloud that surround the coal particle. The model is based on the ignition Of a single coal particle heated by irradiation from spot heaters in a cold (ambient) surrounding. Energy from the particle surface oxidation, volatile matter combustion and physical heating from the spot heaters are all included in rhe particle energv balance. General ignüion criterion is used to determine the ignition point. The agreement between the experimental and …

Review Of The Product Development Process And Information Flow In The Manufacturing Industry: Problems And A Possible Wav Forward, E Opiyo

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

No abstract provided.

Introduction Of Seismic Resistance Features In The Construction Of Buildings In Tanzania, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Available dara indicates that a greater part of Tanzania lies within a seismic region. to date most Of the buildings in the country have been designed and constructed without considering seismic loads. In addition no design codes have been developed to guide the seismic design for buildings and other related structures in Tanzania. This paper outlines the basic design concepts, which are useful during the design of seismic resistant buildings before the seismic design code is developed and adopted in Tanzania.

Service And Network Modeling For Implementation Of Powerline Remote Monitoring Of Electrical Power Metering In Tanzania, J Anatory

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The conventional metering. pyepa.vmen,' and estimates have been used in power utilities industries. The svslen,'s hare experienced many problems such as power tampering, bill tampering, ./åiluve ro receive invoices by poner unlity customers and so on. Different technologies have been investigated To overcome the problems and recently it has been realized that remote 'nonitoring sysle•ns through powerline channel is a solution offhese problems in Tanami". However. 'he powerline network has been used for electrical power IO use i,' for implementation of remote monitoring: network must be setup and has to be modeled to accommodate communications. The contribution has analyzed 'he …

Probabilistic Load Flow For Mv Radial Distribution Networks Supplying Statistical Loads, B Kundy

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Aecurate load models are required Jör 'he computation OJ' load on Medium Voltage (MV) distribution net•.vovk.s_ Modern microprocessors in recent times have enabled researchers stunple and log domestic loads. The findings show that domestic loads are stochastic in nonwe and are best described bv u beta probability distribution [Herman et al. 1999]. The statistical evaluafion lhe consumer voltages requires description load currents al rhe lime e/ lhe system maximum demand. In this paper. an analytical 1001 computing voltage vegulation on MV distribution net-norks fi•eding statistical louds is presenled. To deal beta- distributed currents on MV distribution networks, new scaling factors …

Importance Of Structural Fire Protection In Reinforced Concrete Buildings: A Case Study Of Ex-Nasaco Building In Dar Es Salaam, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Reinforced concrete is concrete that is internally reinforced with steel bars or mesh. This gives rhe malerial the compressive strength of concrete along wilh the tensile strength Of steel. Reinforced concrete does not perform well under fire conditions as it spalls and loses strength. Heating Causes a failure Of the bond between concrele and sleels bars and this results in reduction of strength of concrele. Strength of concrete decreases With increase in temperature and increase With time. In order to provide fire resistance to structural components/elements in buildings, it is important Io consider the type of aggregates to be used. …

Evaluation Of Long-Shore Sediment Transport On The Kunduchi Beach Tidal Flat, Dar Es Salaam, Alfonse Dubi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Kunduchi Beach is located approximately IO kilometres north Of Dar es Salaam City on the coasl of Mainland Tanzania. Currents and sediment concentrations were measured using a multi-sensor self-recording current meter. Waves Were measured using pressure gauges. Some physical features were visually measured. The general orientation of the shoreline is 330 degrees and the tidal flat is characterised by ripples. A1 aboul 150 m from the shoreline, ripples are 7-9 cm high and their wavelength is about 40 cm. Closer to the beach, ripple orientation is 350 degrees: ripple height is 5 cm and ripple wave length is 5 cm. …

Improving The Estimation Of Military Worth Of The Advanced Tactical Laser Through Simulation Aggregation, Michael T. Cook

Theses and Dissertations

Fielding High Energy Laser (HEL) weapon systems presents technological challenges as well as employment and financial challenges. The risk associated with the challenges mandates the development process include computer simulation models capable of predicting weapon system performance from the engineering level to assessing the military worth of employing HEL systems in combat scenarios. This research effort focuses on developing laser performance data at a higher fidelity engagement model and integrating the performance data into a mission level model. The propagation of the laser from the transmitting aperture to the target is modeled at the engagement level through the employment of …

Measuring The Risk Of Shortfalls In Air Force Capabilities, William E. Woodward

Theses and Dissertations

The U.S. Air Force seeks to measure and prioritize risk as part of its Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA) process. The goal of the CRRA is to identify capability shortfalls, and the risks associated with those shortfalls, to influence future systems acquisition. Many fields, including engineering, medicine and finance, seek to model and measure risks. This research utilizes various risk measurement approaches to propose appropriate risk measures for a military context. Specifically, risk is modeled as a non-negative random variable of severity. Four measures are examined: simple expectation, a risk-value measure, tail conditional expectation, and distorted expectation. Risk measures …

Surveying Cost Growth, Michael A. Greiner, Vince Sipple, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Cost growth that weapon systems incur throughout their acquisition life cycle concerns those who work in the acquisition environment. One way to reduce the amount of unexpected cost growth is to develop better cost estimates. In attaining better cost estimates though, it is often helpful to understand and account for potential cost drivers. Several cost studies, some of which specifically focus on the aircraft industry, have been performed documenting and investigating these growth factors. Overviews of these various cost growth studies are presented as other tools for the cost estimators and program managers.

A Selection And Comparison Of Risk Assessment Methods And Models To Be Used For The International Ship And Port Facility Security Code, Fidel Eduardo Reyes Melendez

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of A Modified Gantt Chart Depicting Schedule Risk, Joseph Allen Hope

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The tools and methodologies used to manage projects continue to evolve. A popular project management tool for monitoring a project's schedule is the Gantt chart. The Gantt chart provides information about projected start and end times for each task of a project. A critical limitation of the Gantt chart, however, is its inability to depict uncertainty surrounding the project schedule, or project schedule risk. The present study investigated the effectiveness of three alternative formats for depicting schedule risk. The three presentation formats used were a table, a table with a traditional Gantt chart, and a table and a modified Gantt …

Evaluation Of The Performance Of A Waste Stabilization Pond System In An Arid Region, Nadine Aly El-Aassar

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Risk Perception Regarding Energy Production: Factor Structure In A French Sample, Etienne Mullet, Anne Bertrand, Cécilia Lazreg, Sheila Rivière Shafighi

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "Considering that energy production is a key factor in the development of nations, it is important to have detailed information on the risks attributed by lay people to the different types of energy as well as the different stages of energy production. This study reports on the structure of risk perception with regard to energy production found among French participants. There have already been many investigations of risk perception related to energy production. . . .

The present study is a direct extension of the Mullet study. A similar, although more complete, set of items was used. These items …

Co-Operation In Health And Safety: A Game Theory Analysis, Sylvie Nadeau

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] “Health and safety managers face complex challenges in today’s production environments. They are confronted with increasingly flexible, autonomous and polyvalent contexts. Asymmetry of information on the workplace is widespread because various intervening parties rely on information lacking conformity. Social partners generate and use information which supports or benefits their pursuit of differing goals. Ascertaining and controlling this information can prove both difficult and costly. When addressing health and safety issues, one intervening partner alters or changes behavior in response to changes introduced by the other side. Strategic behaviors result, based on post-contract opportunism (moral hazard) and alliances with partners …