Risk Analysis Commons^™

Modeling Individual Self-Protective Behavior During Epidemics, Geonsik Yu, Michael J. Garee, Mario Ventresca, Yuehwern Yih

Faculty Publications

Protecting public health from infectious diseases requires collective action, as individual behaviors—such as vaccination and mask-wearing—directly influence disease dynamics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, unexpected public responses often undermined the effectiveness of interventions, highlighting the need to understand collective behavioral patterns and motivations to design more effective mitigation strategies. This study presents an agent-based simulation model that captures how individuals adjust self-protective behaviors based on evolving opinions about disease risk and examines how these decisions interact with external factors, such as public health interventions, to shape collective outcomes. To improve the representativeness of the simulated population, multiple datasets were integrated to …

Inconsistencies Emerge Between Regional And Local-Scale Water Security Metrics At Military Installations, Abigail Birnbaum, Michael L. Berg, Caitlin Grady, Daniel J. Weeks, Christopher M. Chini

Faculty Publications

Recent United States federal policy for military installations has emphasized the importance of developing a standardized approach for water security assessment to monitor changes in water resources and the ability for an installation to meet both its civilian and mission needs. For military installations in the United States, these assessments must consider demands both inside and outside the installation’s fence line, as regional resources are required to meet mission readiness. Focusing on physical water scarcity, this study compares four water security metrics with unique formulations and spatial resolutions, including an installation-scale metric and multiple regional metrics defined for either baseline …

A Review Of The United States' Long Term War Support Capabilities In The Indo-Pacific Command Region, Brian J. Mullin Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines U.S. maritime transportation readiness in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting fleet age, mariner shortages, shipyard decline, and port vulnerabilities. It also considers contested logistics and technological threats. Recommendations include fleet recapitalization, mariner pipeline growth, port diversification, and defensive upgrades. The study concludes that secure sea line assumptions are outdated and calls for greater resilience, with follow-on efficiency analysis proposed for ports and ships.

Model-Based Approach To Support Safety Driven Design And Satisfy Mil-Std-882e Requirements With Stpa Coordination: A Case History In Suas Defense Acquisition, Daniel A. Shea

Theses and Dissertations

Increasingly complex defense systems that are routinely overbudget and behind schedule are driving digital engineering initiatives in the defense acquisition industry. MBSE offers a solution to counter this issue but the lack of guidance on how to implement it has led to significant experimentation. One MBSE area of interest is system safety. This research demonstrates how to conduct model-based Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to meet the unique system safety process requirements from MIL-STD882E. Based in systems theory, STPA extended for coordination enables a safety-driven design process of complex systems. This research investigated conducting STPA in the SysML-RAAML modeling language …

Construction Change Order Data As Inputs For A Programmatic Risk Model, Eric C. Klein

Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane Michael struck Tyndall Air Force Base as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, damaging or destroying 90% of its infrastructure (484 buildings). This devastation prompted the Department of Defense to rebuild Tyndall as the “Installation of the Future,” encompassing 44 Military Construction (MILCON) projects and 260 Facility Restoration, Sustainment, and Modernization (FRSM) projects. Since reconstruction began, over 630 Change Request Forms (CRFs) have been closed, adding $67.8 million in costs and 4,880 construction days. The Air Force Civil Engineer Center's Natural Disaster Recovery (NDR) Division developed a programmatic risk model to predict future costs and delays. However, …

Optimizing Hub And Spoke Selections For Adaptive Basing In Agile Combat Employment, Alan Heng

Theses and Dissertations

Advancing technologies and emerging competitors within the Indo-Pacific region have rendered the use of fixed installations for United States Air Force (USAF) operations less than optimal for generating airpower. The adoption of Agile Combat Employment (ACE) is imperative and emphasizes a hub-and-spoke model. However, the methodology for selection of contingency locations remains undecided. Current selection of optimal sites hinges on an optimization framework, employing either rank-based or mathematical approaches that consider various criteria to assess and quantify each location. These criteria are then addressed through objectives and constraints, forming the basis for an effective decision-making process. This paper introduces two …

Analyzing Cost Risk In Department Of Defense Program Office Estimates, Todd L. Millard

Theses and Dissertations

This research studies cost risk for Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs during development and has three overarching objectives: 1) analyze the degree of change in cost risk (quantified as risk dollars) as programs mature, 2) analyze the accuracy of cost risk estimates (quantified as risk error) as programs progress, and 3) adopt risk analysis techniques common in the commercial banking industry to analyze cost risk in DoD programs. For the first objective, some evidence of significant positive trends in relative risk dollars is found for ACAT 1, 2, and 3 programs. For the second objective, there is no strong …

Root Cause Analysis For Troop Construction Schedule Delays And Cost Overruns, Richard H. Wilkens

Theses and Dissertations

Troop construction can be an effective tool when a project is simple enough to execute projects in a timely and cost effective manner. However, underlying variables plague these projects causing them to miss anticipated deadlines which in return could make them more costly. Significant variables that convey impact to cost and schedule are Equipment Operating Issues, Edits During Construction, Design Flaws, Lack of Communication, Poor User Coordination, Improper Documentation, Inaccurate Submittals, Low Quality Control, and Lack of Experience. Project engineers and project managers must provide effective continuity as well as improve their own competence and situational awareness to effectively mitigate …

Standardization Of Risk Classifications For Unmanned Space Vehicle Missions, Collin A. Gwaltney

Theses and Dissertations

This paper seeks to model risk classification levels (A-D) for 122 Space Vehicle programs. Models include multinomial logistic regression as well as random forest, a machine learning technique based on decision trees. We use independent variables (IVs) which are theoretically correlated to risk class for the regression and one random forest model. We then include all IVs and allow the random forest technique to use those which provide the most information on risk class before paring down the number of IVs to only 7. We show that the accuracy of predictions increases from 62% to 87% by using random forest …

Radiological Decontamination Methodologies On Litter-Bound Patients In Arctic Environments, And The Associated Airborne Risks Posed To First Responders, Juan S. Alb

Theses and Dissertations

This study was conducted to determine if air-based decontamination (decon) methods would be effective at both treating patients exposed to dry, radiological contamination as well as reducing its re-aerosolization during the disrobing process, such that these methods could be applied on litter-bound patients in extreme cold environments. A litter-bound, full-size mannequin dressed in a set of standard military issue extreme cold weather jacket and pants coated in 27 g (1 Tbs) of Copper Oxide (density 6.315 g/cm³ ) was given one of three treatments for dry aerosol decon. The three cleaning treatments included high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) vacuum, a …

Influencing Air Force Logisticians' Information Seeking During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Expanded Prism Framework, Matthew D. Roberts, Christopher T. Price, Seong-Jong Joo

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This research aims to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and how these meetings impacted their risk seeking behavior on social media.

Design/methodology/approach: This survey research tested an extended Planned Risk Information Risk Seeking Model (PRISM) with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency and intention to seek information regarding COVID-19.

Findings: Results of the CFA showed that the expanded PRISM model had good model fit. Additionally, using …

Utilizing The System Engineering Trade Study Analysis Method To Analyze Patient Aeromedical Evacuation, Sara Shaghaghi, Jeremy M. Slagley, Michael E. Miller, Gaiven Varshney

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force has gone through many aeromedical patient isolation transport system designs. The first designs were developed in response to the Ebola outbreak in 2014 and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The trade study analysis part of the system engineering design method was used to analyze the historic and current aeromedical patient contamination control transport systems. A trade study is a process that evaluates alternatives based upon various “-ilities”, such as reconfigurability, flexibility, durability, cost, and more, and performs a systematic analysis to aid designers in producing a ‘good’ design alternative given the large set of possible solutions. …

Modeling Radiation Exposure On Flight Missions To Analyze Aircrew Risk, Camila V. Quintero Hilsaca

Theses and Dissertations

GCR and SPE comprise the majority of the ionizing radiation experienced in the upper atmosphere within flight-altitude environments. Although previous studies have analyzed radiation doses from single sources on civilian flight operations, there is a lack of research focused on dose received by military personnel during flight from both sources simultaneously. In-flight radiation environments are modeled through the MCNP6 for two separate aircraft, an Air Force A-10 and a Boeing 737. Particle fluence values for galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events for four separate flight paths are determined using the CARI-7A software and the SIRE2 toolkit, respectively. MCNP6 code …

Applications Of Fragile Curves To Water Distribution Networks, Danielle M. Van Lanen

Theses and Dissertations

Water distribution networks are of critical importance to provide uninterrupted services to a city. Not only do they provide potable drinking water to customers they also are used for fire services and other emergency support functions. By the year 2039, the United States’ drinking water investment gap is estimated to grow to $136 billion dollars. As the gap between available funding and funding required, being able to prioritize assets for investments is critical. Unfortunately, water distribution networks are typically managed reactively rather than proactively. This paper showcases a methodology for a proactive approach to asset management through the use of …

Examining Fuel Service System Failures Of The Usaf R11 Using Survival Analysis, Roed M.S. Mejia

Theses and Dissertations

Recent events show that fuel supply is a large contributor to the success or failure of a military operation in response to a contingency. Any future near-peer conflict will stress the supply chain and require fully operational vehicles to be ready for the primary mission sets they support. In the United States Air Force (USAF), the readiness of fuel distribution trucks is crucial to meeting those mission sets in global operations. Utilizing non-parametric and semi-parametric survival models, which do not assume specific probability distributions, this study analyzes maintenance data for R-11 trucks that refuel aircraft.

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Wastewater Treatment Plants And Their Social Vulnerability Differences, David S. P. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

Many of the United States’ major cities that have a high population are located along the coast. The number of people residing in low elevation coastal areas, be-low 10 meters, is increasing. Coastal areas may be affected by various short- and long-term climate hazards, such as sea level rise (SLR). Climate change induced SLR will threaten residents and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. A household’s capacity to respond to hazards is highly dependent on its socio-demographic situation which determines its social vulnerability. Wastewater treatment facilities area particularly critical piece of infrastructure often located in low-lying areas due to gravity fed …

Fragility Of The Florida Panhandle's Electrical Transmission Grid To Hurricanes, Zachary D. Schumann

Theses and Dissertations

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid’s resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build …

Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Inspection System is a proponent of utilizing a risk-based sampling strategy (RBSS) for conducting inspections from major command levels down to the unit level. The strategy identifies areas deemed most important or risky by commanders and prioritizes them accordingly for an independent assessment by the Inspector General. While Air Force regulation specifies the need to use a RBSS for inspection, the implementation process is delegated to individual commands and, subsequently, wings. The 23rd Wing, the sponsor for this research, directed us to analyze a RBSS tool highlighted as an example from which to adopt for those units …

Survivability Analysis In The Shadow Of Apollo: Part Ii - Spacecraft Charging Vulnerability Near The Stable Earth-Moon Lagrange Points, Robert A. Bettinger, Nathan R. Boone, Nicholas S. Hamilton, Bryan D. Little

Faculty Publications

Though the reality of routine travel and sustained operations in space likely remains several decades away, the building blocks of space exploration and space system development necessary to realize this reality are currently being laid by peer, near-peer, and emerging space-faring nations. The pursuance of sustained cislunar space operations will necessitate a renewed examination of spacecraft survivability and the capability of spacecraft to avoid and/or withstand the natural and manmade environmental risks posed by this “new” ultimate high ground.

Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard

Theses and Dissertations

Large and rapidly growing cities and other urban agglomerations have the potential to become incubators of political instability. This is especially true of rapidly growing cities which are located in countries that are also experiencing high rates of growth in their youth population. Rapid growth rates put stress on urban infrastructure and other institutions, and these stresses can cause major problems for both city and national governments. Knowing when these cities and countries may be trending toward their tipping points regarding political instability will help governments and international organizations develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the risk of instability.

Understanding Logistics Airmen’S Risk Information Seeking And Processing During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Extended Prism Framework, Christopher T. Price

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this survey-based research was to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and subsequently played a role into their risk seeking behavior on social media. Specifically, this research tested an expanded Planned Information Risk Seeking Model with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency an intentions to seek information regarding COVID-19.

Survivability Analysis In The Shadow Of Apollo: Part I - Cislunar Debris Propagation And Spacecraft Vulnerability, Nathan R. Boone, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Although the reality of routine travel and sustained operations and habitation in space likely remains several decades away, the building blocks of space exploration and space system development necessary to realize this reality are currently being laid by peer, near-peer, and emerging space-faring nations. Traditionally, global space operations were notionally limited to near-Earth space, with mission altitudes extending to geosynchronous or even highly elliptical orbits. During the 2010s, however, space operations began moving beyond this paradigm to encompass cislunar space with reinvigorated U.S. initiatives to return to the Moon via the Artemis program, planned commercial space projects, and an accelerated …

Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham

Theses and Dissertations

Aircrew fatigue in flight operations is a known hazard that has driven the creation of fatigue-reducing regulation and fatigue risk management systems industry wide. In addition, biomathematical models have been created and tested to forecast the effectiveness of aircrew under conditions of time-zone shifts and long duty days. However, limited operational studies exist to validate these models or to help understand how individual factors can affect them. Operational studies have a variety of limitations that make gathering typical data regarding fatigue or sleep difficult. This research takes systems requirement analysis approach to design a study that measures effects of circadian …

Prioritizing Facilities Linked To Corporate Strategic Objectives Using A Fuzzy Model, Devin Depalmer, Steven J. Schuldt, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Limited facilities operating and modernization budgets require organizations to carefully identify, prioritize and authorize projects to ensure allocated resources align with strategic objectives. Traditional facility prioritization methods using risk matrices can be improved to increase granularity in categorization and avoid mathematical error or human cognitive biases. These limitations restrict the utility of prioritizations and if erroneously used to select projects for funding, they can lead to wasted resources. This paper aims to propose a novel facility prioritization methodology that corrects these assessment design and implementation issues.

Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways To Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation And Economic Modeling Framework For Coastal Installations, Alexander J. Baldwin

Theses and Dissertations

Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate …

Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …

An Analysis Of A Hurricane Loss Model, Validation From Tyndall Afb, And Applications For The Air Force, Nestor Hernandez

Theses and Dissertations

Recent reconstruction of infrastructure and its associated cost due to hurricanes justify research into hurricane loss models that can provide a more robust cost estimate. Academic research indicates that hurricane disasters are becoming more frequent and are becoming costlier. This research intends to explore hurricane loss models used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Risk Management Solution (RMS) and Florida State University (FSU). Within the literature review, key components of hurricane loss models were identified. These models and the key components were explored in order to help bring an understanding of loss estimation. The research found that the implementation of …

Using A Field Mill Climatology To Assess All Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, Shane C. Gardner

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the danger and cost of lightning striking a space vehicle, the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) balances between the mission of launching and cessation thereof to minimize the risk of a lightning strike. This process is mediated through a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). To date, no empirical modeling of these rules has been established. To alleviate this shortcoming, this thesis uses the voltage readings of the surrounding CCAFS surface field mills to establish the viability of modeling the entirety of the LLCC rules statistically. Converting approximately 312,000,000 field mill voltage readings …

An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …

Optimization Of Airfield Parking And Fuel Asset Dispersal To Maximize Survivability And Mission Capability Level, Ryley R. H. Paquette

Theses and Dissertations

While the US focus for the majority of the past two decades has been on combatting insurgency and promoting stability in Southwest Asia, strategic focus is beginning to shift toward concerns of conflict with a near-peer state. Such conflict brings with it the risk of ballistic missile attack on air bases. With 26 conflicts worldwide in the past 100 years including attacks on air bases, new doctrine and modeling capacity are needed to enable the Department of Defense to continue use of vulnerable bases during conflict involving ballistic missiles. Several models have been developed to date for Air Force strategic …