Risk Analysis Commons^™

Experimental Characterization And Finite Element Analysis Of The Effects Of Pitting Corrosion On The Mechanical Properties Of Stainless Steel, Duncan Jay Fure, Long Wang

Master's Theses

Many structures do not fail from poor design, but instead from environmental degradation. Corrosion is one mode whose effects can be diminished, but not eliminated, by employing corrosion resistant materials, such as 304 stainless steel, which are still subject to pitting corrosion. Pitting corrosion is a chemical process of the localized removal of material leaving cavities. Despite the prevalence of pitting corrosion, there has been limited testing conducted of the effect of stress during corrosion. This study conducted accelerated controlled corrosion experiments with and without mechanical loading and various corrosion times. Pit morphology of different conditions was analyzed with statistical …

Evaluation Of Damages And Economic Losses In Light-Frame Timber Houses, Mason P. Leonard

Master's Theses

This thesis aims to evaluate the damages and economic losses in light-frame timber houses by designing and constructing a two-story, full-scale, fully equipped, code conforming timber assembly. Specifically, the structure will be analyzed based on how the non-structural components (NSC) like gypsum wallboard, interior doors, windows, and sliding patio doors as well as structural components like light-frame timber shear walls impact the economic losses.

Damage limit states were obtained from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P-58, Performance Assessment of Buildings to extract at what inter-story drift (ISD) ratio each damage limit state was expected to occur at. Fragility and …

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

Study Of Fragility Functions For Assessing Damage To Water Pipe Networks Caused By Earthquake Loading, Dylan Joseph Merlo

Master's Theses

The performance of water lifelines during seismic events is an area of ongoing research. In this study we evaluate eight (8) different seismic events and the impact that ground shaking and ground deformations had on water pipeline systems. The overall goal of this work is to provide municipalities and utility providers with tools for mitigating the consequences of seismic hazards on water lifeline systems by analyzing the accuracy of damage estimation models. Three (3) different repair rate models are evaluated using data collected from the seismic events and compared to observed repair rate data. Results are analyzed to examine the …

Incorporating Shear Resistance Into Debris Flow Triggering Model Statistics, Noah J. Lyman

Master's Theses

Several regions of the Western United States utilize statistical binary classification models to predict and manage debris flow initiation probability after wildfires. As the occurrence of wildfires and large intensity rainfall events increase, so has the frequency in which development occurs in the steep and mountainous terrain where these events arise. This resulting intersection brings with it an increasing need to derive improved results from existing models, or develop new models, to reduce the economic and human impacts that debris flows may bring. Any development or change to these models could also theoretically increase the ease of collection, processing, and …

The Performance Cost Of Security, Lucy R. Bowen

Master's Theses

Historically, performance has been the most important feature when optimizing computer hardware. Modern processors are so highly optimized that every cycle of computation time matters. However, this practice of optimizing for performance at all costs has been called into question by new microarchitectural attacks, e.g. Meltdown and Spectre. Microarchitectural attacks exploit the effects of microarchitectural components or optimizations in order to leak data to an attacker. These attacks have caused processor manufacturers to introduce performance impacting mitigations in both software and silicon.

To investigate the performance impact of the various mitigations, a test suite of forty-seven different tests was created. …

Assessing Risk In Iot Devices, David Levitsky

Master's Theses

The explosive growth of the Internet of Things ecosystem has thrust these devices into the center of our lives. Unfortunately, the desire to create these devices has been stronger than the one to secure them. Recent attacks have shown us ignoring security in Internet of Things devices can cause severe harm in both a digital and physical sense. This thesis outlines a framework for developers and managers to assess the risk of IoT devices using a weighted scoring system across five different categories. Our case studies suggest that devices with higher security considerations have a better security posture and lower …

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs …

Cooperative Construction In Schools In California, John Mauck Donley

Master's Theses

Cooperative Construction in Schools in California

John M. Donley

The construction industry has lost efficiency since 1964, while becoming increasingly more litigious. Schools in California can ill afford the time to allow the construction industry time to fully evolve. It may take years or decades to fully improve the efficiency of, and reduce the conflict within the construction industry.

At the same time, the construction industry has developed new processes to improve efficiency and reduce conflict. These processes are beginning to be broadly embraced by the industry. They all contain cooperative elements. Taken together they represent a new organizing principle …

Development Of Safety Standards For Cubesat Propulsion Systems, Liam Jon Cheney

Master's Theses

The CubeSat community has begun to develop and implement propulsion systems. This movement represents a new capability which may satisfy mission needs such as orbital and constellation maintenance, formation flight, de-orbit, and even interplanetary travel. With the freedom and capability granted by propulsion systems, CubeSat providers must accept new responsibilities in proportion to the potential hazards that propulsion systems may present.

The Cal Poly CubeSat program publishes and maintains the CubeSat Design Specification (CDS). They wish to help the CubeSat community to safety and responsibly expand its capabilities to include propulsive designs. For this reason, the author embarked on the …