Risk Analysis Commons^™

Security Risks Of Ai-Generated Code In Software Development, Maame Agyekum

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Artificial Intelligence(AI) has recently forced change globally, public Institutions and as well as national security. Advancement in machine learning, mixed datasets have enabled significantly powerful systems while being capable of operating at a large scale. As innovation and technological advancement increases at rapid pace, issues like a regulation gap where scientific development far exceeds the government’s ability to regulate and establish an effective oversight. As a result, Artificial Intelligence has been controlled by private companies, leading to an industry where speed and profit often outweigh safety and ethical responsibility.

Evaluating Species At Risk In Data-Limited Fisheries: A Productivity-Susceptibility Analysis For Marine Aquarium Fish, Gabrielle A. Baillargeon, Alice A. Wynn, Jemelyn Grace P. Baldisimo, Michael F. Tlusty, Andrew L. Rhyne

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The marine aquarium trade (MAT) is a significant global industry harvesting millions of wild-caught, live coral reef fishes for public and private aquaria markets in the United States and Europe annually, while supporting fisher livelihoods in the Indo-Pacific. This diverse and species-rich trade is considered data-limited, creating barriers to quantifying the current and future socio-ecological sustainability of the fishery. We present a revised and expanded productivity–susceptibility analysis (PSA) that serves as a holistic risk assessment to estimate the vulnerability of marine aquarium fish to overfishing. Our global analysis includes 306 species that are actively in trade. Improvements to the PSA …

A Three-Stage Causal Root-Cause Diagnostic Protocol For Nonstationary Industrial Time Series Data, Cansu Yalim, Resit Unal, Holly A. H. Handley

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Predictive maintenance (PdM) systems effectively forecast failures, but they often fail to find root causes, particularly when system dynamics change over time. This limitation arises from applying static causal models or decoupled segmentation to handle nonstationary industrial time series. For regime-aware causal diagnostics and interventional effect estimation, we introduce a three-stage time-varying dynamic Bayesian network (TV-DBN) protocol. Using a minimum description length (MDL) objective that connects segmentation to mechanism changes, Stage I jointly infers change points and regime-specific graph structure. Stage II produces a completed partially directed acyclic graph (DAG) by orienting edges within each regime using a combination of …

A Critical Perspective On The Society Of Environmental Toxicology And Chemistry's Adherence To Founding Principles— Opportunities For The Future, Barnett A. Rattner, Annegaaike Leopold, Carys L. Mitchelmore, Glenn W. Suter, Mark S. Johnson, Adriana C. Bejarano, Lawrence A. Kapustka, Niranjana Krishnan, Derek C. G. Muir, Beatrice O. Opeolu, Martha Georgina Orozco-Medina, April Reed, Bruce W. Vigon, Adam R. Wronski

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) is a global organization whose mission is the advancement of environmental science and management through collaboration, leadership, communication and education. On SETAC's 45th anniversary, the following question was raised: Are the 1979 founding principles of SETAC, multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems, multisector engagement and scientific objectivity, still useful, adequate and effective in fulfilling its mission? In a special session held at the 45th Annual Meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, United States, a critical evaluation of the founding principles was initiated by reviewing SETAC's history and ongoing activities, and recommendations were made …

Application Paths Of Semantic Modeling In Financial Fraud Detection And Risk Identification, Victor P. Gauthier, Daniel S. Wu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Financial fraud and risk pose significant threats to economic stability and individual well-being. Traditional detection methods often struggle to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated fraudulent schemes. Semantic modeling, which focuses on understanding the meaning and relationships within data, offers a promising avenue for enhancing fraud detection and risk identification. This review paper explores the application paths of semantic modeling in this domain. We begin with a historical overview of fraud detection techniques, highlighting the limitations of traditional approaches. Subsequently, we delve into core themes, including knowledge graph-based fraud detection and semantic rule-based inference for risk assessment. We then compare and …

Fault Tree Analysis For Robust Design, Jonathan Degroff, Gene Jean-Win Hou

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

The objective of this research is to incorporate system failure into a robust design formation and solution process. The system failure referred to here will be built using fault tree analysis (FTA), which will take all lower-level failure events into consideration. Two examples are investigated here. One will directly treat the probabilities of the basis events as design variables, The other will be formulated in five different models: deterministic design optimization, the reliability index-based, the “and” gate-based, the “or” gate-based and the “inhibit” gate-based robust design. Their corresponding optimization solutions will be compared with each other. The post-optimality analysis of …

Exploring Research And Tools In Ai Security: A Systematic Mapping Study, Sidhant Narula, Mohammad Ghasemigol, Javier Carnerero-Cano, Amanda Minnich, Emil Lupu, Daniel Takabi

School of Cybersecurity Faculty Publications

With the pervasive integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in various facets of modern technology, the importance of AI security has been thrust into the spotlight. The field is rapidly evolving, with new challenges and solutions emerging at a swift pace. However, the breadth and depth of AI security research have not been comprehensively mapped in recent times, presenting a crucial need for an extensive review and synthesis of existing literature. Given the increasing reliance on AI in critical domains such as healthcare, finance, and national security, ensuring the resilience and trustworthiness of these systems is imperative. This survey fulfills the …

Enhancing Risk And Crisis Communication With Computational Methods: A Systematic Literature Review, Madison H. Munro, Ross J. Gore, Christopher J. Lynch, Yvette D. Hastings, Ann Marie Reinhold

VMASC Publications

Recent developments in risk and crisis communication (RCC) research combine social science theory and data science tools to construct effective risk messages efficiently. However, current systematic literature reviews (SLRs) on RCC primarily focus on computationally assessing message efficacy as opposed to message efficiency. We conduct an SLR to highlight any current computational methods that improve message construction efficacy and efficiency. We found that most RCC research focuses on using theoretical frameworks and computational methods to analyze or classify message elements that improve efficacy. For improving message efficiency, computational and manual methods are only used in message classification. Specifying the computational …

From Cyclones To Cybersecurity: A Call For Convergence In Risk And Crisis Communications Research, Ann Marie Reinhold, Ross J. Gore, Barry Ezell, Clemente I. Izurieta, Elizabeth A. Shanahan

VMASC Publications

Effective risk and crisis communication can improve health and safety and reduce harmful effects of hazards and disasters. A robust body of literature investigates mechanisms for improving risk and crisis communication. While effective risk and crisis communication strategies are equally desired across different hazard types (e.g., natural hazards, cyber security), the extent to which risk and crisis communication experts utilize the “lessons learned” from scientific domains outside their own is suspect. Therefore, we hypothesized that risk and crisis communication research is siloed according to academic disciplines at the detriment to the advancement of the field of risk communications research writ …

Sex-Dependent Changes In Risk-Taking Predisposition Of Rats Following Space Radiation Exposure, Elliot Smits, Faith E. Reid, Ella N. Tamgue, Paola Alvarado Arriaga, Charles Nguyen, Richard A. Britten

Department Radiation Oncology & Biophysics Faculty Publications

The Artemis missions will establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon, serving as a crucial steppingstone for future Mars exploration. Astronauts on these ambitious missions will have to successfully complete complex tasks, which will frequently involve rapid and effective decision making under unfamiliar or high-pressure conditions. Exposure to low doses of space radiation (SR) can impair key executive functions critical to decision making. This study examined the effects of exposure to 10 cGy of Galactic Cosmic Ray simulated radiation (GCRsim) on decision-making performance in male and female rats with a naturally low predisposition for risk-taking (RTP) prior to exposure. …

A Governance-Centric Framework For Strengthening Healthcare Cybersecurity: A Systems Perspective, Sujatha Alla, Sai Gireesh Komaragiri, Teresa Duvall, Satluk Karahan, Nagesh Bheesetty, Vijay Kumar Chattu

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Healthcare systems face unprecedented security and privacy challenges due to increasing digitization and interconnectedness. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of these challenges by examining various cyberattacks, defensive mechanisms, and governance frameworks within modern healthcare infrastructure. The research systematically categorizes prevalent security threats, such as ransomware, insider threats, and data breaches, identifying vulnerabilities specific to healthcare systems. Furthermore, the study evaluates current defensive strategies, including encryption techniques, access control systems, and intrusion detection tools, assessing their effectiveness against complex cyber threats. A key focus is placed on governance structures and their role in cybersecurity resilience. The research explores how regulatory …

Potential Of Lidar And Hyperspectral Sensing For Overcoming Challenges In Current Maritime Ballast Tank Corrosion Inspection, Sergio Pallas Enguita, Jiajun Jiang, Chung-Hao Chen, Samuel Kovacic, Richard Lebel

Electrical & Computer Engineering Faculty Publications

Corrosion in maritime ballast tanks is a major driver of maintenance costs and operational risks for maritime assets. Inspections are hampered by complex geometries, hazardous conditions, and the limitations of conventional methods, particularly visual assessment, which struggles with subjectivity, accessibility, and early detection, especially under coatings. This paper critically examines these challenges and explores the potential of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) to form the basis of improved inspection approaches. We discuss LiDAR’s utility for accurate 3D mapping and providing a spatial framework and HSI’s potential for objective material identification and surface characterization based on spectral …

Embedding Software Engineering In Mixed Methods: Computationally Enhanced Risk Communication, Ann Marie Reinhold, Madison H. Munro, Elizabeth A. Shanahan, Ross J. Gore, Barry C. Ezell, Clemente I. Izurieta

VMASC Publications

Mixed methods research ameliorates many convergent research challenges within the contemporary sociotechnical landscape. We suggest the integration of software engineering in mixed methods studies is a critical step to address some of the remaining and persistent challenges. One such research challenge where software engineering is particularly well suited is in hazard preparedness—in particular, the creation of risk communication messages to mitigate or prevent harm. Computationally enhanced risk communication is convergent research that integrates software engineering and social science research for the benefit of protecting humans and infrastructure. To this end, we developed a mixed methods framework for the efficient construction …

Exposure To Low (10 Cgy) Doses Of ⁴He Ions Leads To An Apparent Increase In Risk Taking Propensity In Female Rats, Nina Li, Simran Phuyal, Elliot Smits, Faith E. Reid, Ella N. Tamgue, Paola Alvarado Arriaga, Richard A. Britten

Department of Medicine Faculty Publications

The planned missions to the Moon and Mars will present more significant health challenges to astronauts compared to low earth orbit missions. During deep space missions, astronauts will be constantly exposed to Space radiation (SR). Multiple rodent studies suggest that < 25 cGy of SR impairs performance in executive functions, which play a key role in advanced cognitive processes, but also regulate response inhibition and impulse control. There is the possibility that SR exposure may exacerbate aberrant behaviors evoked by psychological stress related to exposure to isolated and confined (ICE) hostile environment or independently induce additional aberrant behaviors. This study has determined that female Wistar rats exposed to 10 cGy of 250 MeV/n He had an increased risk taking propensity (RTP)\compared to shams. The increased RTP of the He-exposed rats was associated with significantly increased reaction times during the trials, suggesting a SR-induced loss of processing speed. The response times of the He-exposed rats were even further reduced in trials that immediately followed a loss, raising the possibility that conflict and interference avoidance may be impaired after SR exposure. Whether these findings occur following other types of SR exposure, and/or in male rats remains to be determined.

Ai And Ml-Based Risk Assessment Of Chemicals: Predicting Carcinogenic Risk From Chemical-Induced Genomic Instability, Ajay Vikram Singh, Preeti Bhardwaj, Peter Laux, Prachi Pradeep, Madleen Busse, Andreas Luch, Akihiko Hirose, Christopher J. Osgood, Michael W. Stacey

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Chemical risk assessment plays a pivotal role in safeguarding public health and environmental safety by evaluating the potential hazards and risks associated with chemical exposures. In recent years, the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and omics technologies has revolutionized the field of chemical risk assessment, offering new insights into toxicity mechanisms, predictive modeling, and risk management strategies. This perspective review explores the synergistic potential of AI/ML and omics in deciphering clastogen-induced genomic instability for carcinogenic risk prediction. We provide an overview of key findings, challenges, and opportunities in integrating AI/ML and omics technologies for chemical risk assessment, …

The Transformative Integration Of Artificial Intelligence With Cmmc And Nist 800-171 For Advanced Risk Management And Compliance, Mia Lunati

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

This paper explores the transformative potential of integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) with established cybersecurity frameworks such as the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Special Publication 800-171. The thesis argues that the relationship between AI and these frameworks has the capacity to transform risk management in cybersecurity, where it could serve as a critical element in threat mitigation. In addition to addressing AI’s capabilities, this paper acknowledges the risks and limitations of these systems, highlighting the need for extensive research and monitoring when relying on AI. One must understand boundaries when integrating …

Systemic Risk Analysis Of Human Factors In Phishing, Mark Guilford

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The scope of this study is the systemic risk of the role of humans in the risk of phishing. The relevance to engineering managers and systems engineers of the risks of phishing attacks is the theft of data which has significantly increased in the past couple of years. Phishing has become a systemic persistent threat to all internet users. Understanding the role of humans in phishing from a systemic perspective is a critical objective towards creating a strong defense against complex and manipulative phishing attacks. The systemic view of phishing concentrates on how phishing affects the entire organizational system, not …

Component Maintenance Strategies And Risk Analysis For Random Shock Effects Considering Maintenance Costs, Chao Zhang, Yadong Zhang, Hongyan Dui, Shaoping Wang, Mileta Tomovic

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Maintenance can improve a system’s reliability in a long operation period or when a component has failed. The reliability modeling method that uses the stochastic process degradation model to describe the system degradation process has been widely used. However, the existing reliability models established using stochastic processes only consider the internal degradation process, and do not fully consider the impact of external random shocks on their reliability modeling. Furthermore, the existing theory of importance does not consider the actual factors of maintenance cost. In this paper, based on the reliability modeling of random processes, the degradation rate under the influence …

Adaptive Risk Network Dependency Analysis Of Complex Hierarchical Systems, Katherine L. Smith

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Recently the number, variety, and complexity of interconnected systems have been increasing while the resources available to increase resilience of those systems have been decreasing. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to quantify the effects of risks and the resulting disruptions over time as they ripple through networks of systems. This dissertation presents a novel modeling and simulation methodology which quantifies resilience, as impact on performance over time, and risk, as the impact of probabilistic disruptions. This work includes four major contributions over the state-of-the-art which are: (1) cyclic dependencies are captured by separation of performance variables into layers which …

The Effects Of Antecedents And Mediating Factors On Cybersecurity Protection Behavior, Ling Li, Li Xu, Wu He

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper identifies opportunities for potential theoretical and practical improvements in employees' awareness of cybersecurity and their motivational behavior to protect themselves and their organizations from cyberattacks using the protection motivation theory. In addition, it contributes to the literature by examining additional variables and mediators besides the core constructs of the Protection Motivation Model (PMT). This article uses empirical data and structural equation modeling to test the antecedents and mediators of employees' cybersecurity motivational behavior. The study offers theoretical and pragmatic guidance for cybersecurity programs. First, the model developed in this study can partially explain how people may change their …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

A Human Factors Study Of Risk Management Of Complex Agile Scrum Projects In Large Enterprises, Ravi Kalluri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Agile Project Management methods have gained phenomenal success in the IT software world in managing projects of high complexity and uncertainty. However, Agile projects come with their unique set of risks. This paper seeks to explore the risks posed by human factors to complex Agile Scrum projects in large enterprises. Project Risk Management is crucial in determining the future performance of a complex project. Increasing project complexity makes it more and more difficult to anticipate potential events that could affect the project and to make effective decisions to reduce project risk exposure. This is even more true for Agile projects …

Definition And Detection Of Hypervulnerabilities Using A Framework For Assessing Port Resilience, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen, Francesco Longo

VMASC Publications

Long term plans for maritime ports are identifying investments that will increase their capacity while decreasing their environmental footprint and operating costs. These changes are leading to increases in complexity at a time when leaner practices are driving investments to become more strategic. As such, this work proposes a generalized definition that allows a system or entity to be classified as exceedingly vulnerable by comparing it to other entities. This definition is developed from a set of definitions gathered from disparate fields. From this definition grounded in theory, the initial rules for complex system implementation are developed and demonstrated on …

Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (Cmmc) Compliance For Dod Contractors, Sierra Burnett

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

The DoD is currently taking a supply-chain risk management strategy to foster cybersecurity. This unique strategy is often referred to as CMMC which stands for “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification”. The approach requires that all the 300,000 DoD contractors acquire third-party authentication that may attain the requirements for the CMMC maturity level suitable to the work they desire to do for the DoD. CMMC typically examines the organization's capability to safeguard Federal Contract Information as well as CUI. It integrates various cybersecurity standards already in place and plots the best practices alongside processes to five maturity levels that range from the …

Risk Management And Biases In How Drivers Respond To Nuisance Flooding, Saige Hill, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Burton St. John Iii, Pragati Rawat, Carol Considine

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Nuisance flooding, or recurrent flooding, occurs during high tide and may be exacerbated when combined with other events such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, or storm surge. Sea level rise has contributed to increased frequency and duration of nuisance flooding in low-lying coastal areas and is causing community-specific impacts such as transportation disruption, road closures, compromises to life and property, overwhelmed storm water systems, and infrastructure damage. This chapter focuses on how drivers respond during nuisance flooding events. Specifically, we discuss how drivers in the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia obtain information about road flooding, how they respond, …

Quantifying Cyber Risk By Integrating Attack Graph And Impact Graph, Omer F. Keskin

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Being a relatively new risk source, models to quantify cyber risks are not well developed; therefore, cyber risk management in most businesses depends on qualitative assessments. With the increase in the economic consequences of cyber incidents, the importance of quantifying cyber risks has increased. Cyber risk quantification is also needed to establish communication among decision-makers of different levels of an enterprise, from technical personnel to top management.

The goal of this research is to build a probabilistic cybersecurity risk analysis model that relates attack propagation with impact propagation through internal dependencies and allows temporal analysis.

The contributions of the developed …

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …

Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Knowledge Representation Of Hazardous Industrial Operations, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Letizia Nicoletti, Caterina Fusto, Mohaiad Elbasheer, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Hazardous industrial operations are highly stochastic, still human-dependent, and risky. Operators working in such an environment must understand the complex interrelation between several factors contributing to safe and effective operations. Therefore, being able to predict the effects of their actions on provoking or mitigating possible accidents is crucial. This study aims to utilize fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to model the expert’s reasoning about occupational health and safety (OHS) in confined space. This knowledge is used by operators to build their mental models. The developed FCM displays all the possible incidents of a confined space and links these incidents with all …

Developing An Artificial Intelligence Framework To Assess Shipbuilding And Repair Sub-Tier Supply Chains Risk, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Beatriz Acero, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

The defense shipbuilding and repair industry is a labor-intensive sector that can be characterized by low-product volumes and high investments in which a large number of shared resources, technology, suppliers, and processes asynchronously converge into large construction projects. It is mainly organized by the execution of a complex combination of sequential and overlapping stages. While entities engaged in this large-scale endeavor are often knowledgeable about their first-tier suppliers, they usually do not have insight into the lower tiers suppliers. A sizable part of any supply chain disruption is attributable to instabilities in sub-tier suppliers. This research note conceptually delineates a …

Influence Of The Inherent Safety Principles On Quantitative Risk In Process Industry: Application Of Genetic Algorithm Process Optimization (Gapo), Mehdi Jahangiri, Abolfazl Moghadasi, Mojtaba Kamalinia, Farid Sadeghianjahromi, Sean Banaee

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Inherent safety (IS) refers to a set of measures that enhance the safety level of processes and equipment, rendering additional equipment and/or add-ons. The early design phase of processes is suited best for implementation of IS strategies as some of such strategies either are impossible to be implemented at the operation phase or substantially increase costs. The purpose of this study is to present a new approach called genetic algorithm process optimization (GAPO), by which processes can be made inherently safer even at the operation phase. This study simulates the IS principle, assessing its impact on quantitative risk and the …