Risk Analysis Commons^™

Experimental Measurement Demonstration Of Initial And Steady-State Heights Of A Co2 Vertical Jet Fountain In Still Air, Brock Mcrae

Chemical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Atmospheric releases of heavier-than-air gases pose acute near-field hazards in low wind, yet the near-source behavior of vertical dense-gas jets in still air is sparsely documented. This thesis demonstrates a repeatable laboratory method for measuring the initial and steady-state rise heights of a carbon dioxide (CO₂) jet issued vertically from a floor nozzle in the CHRC ultra-low-speed wind tunnel under still-air conditions. Controlled mixtures (pure CO₂, 50/50 CO₂-air, 25/75 CO₂-air) were released at four flow rates (75, 100, 125, 150 LPM) with five repeats per condition. A fixed camera and tape-measure scale enabled video extraction of jet height using Kinovea …

Agent-Based Modeling For Faulty System Analysis, Jayden G. Hamilton

Mechanical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Numerous approaches exist for computational modeling of complex, dynamic systems. One particular option is the use of agent-based modeling, which simulates the behavior of numerous autonomous agents interacting with each other and with the system at large. Current agent-based modeling research has largely focused on studying the system level behavior of a model, as this is generally the main concern for any real world application. However, the characteristics and behaviors of agents deserves consideration as well. The issue with this area of interest lies in the fact that the agent data cannot be as quickly obtained and analyzed as system …

A Comprehensive Analysis Of Training Induced Heat-Related Injuries At Fort Moore, Anthony Beger

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

Heat related injuries are a significant problem for the United States Armed Forces. There were over 11,000 confirmed cases of heat-related illnesses that were diagnosed at more than 230 military installations from 2018-2022. These injuries are primarily due to hyperthermia (i.e., abnormally high body temperature) resulting from extreme environmental temperatures, high humidity, medications, or excessive physical work or exercise. Fort Moore has the most heat related injuries of any installation in the U.S. Department of Defense since it is home to one of the largest U. S. Army training posts with most training involving intensive outdoor activity in high heat …

Automated Visualization Pipeline For Near Real-Time Risk Management System, Paris Joslin

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

In modern society, technological capabilities and the amount of data readily available to users continue to grow exponentially. Many have adopted these new capabilities but lack the infrastructure needed to efficiently utilize high-powered software and programs. Without a method to collect, store, and process large datasets in real-time, individuals and businesses can quickly become overwhelmed, inhibiting effective decision-making processes. There is potential to improve decision-making abilities by enhancing the computing infrastructure. To accomplish this task, we will explore the ideas surrounding High Performance Computing (HPC) and data visualization software. High Performance Computing is the ability to process data and perform …

Estimating Toxic Load From Finite-Duration Contaminant Releases In Wind Tunnel Experiments, Patrick B. Jones

Chemical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

When gaseous contaminants are released into the atmosphere said contaminants form clouds that travel in the prevailing wind direction. An individual caught in the downwind path of one such cloud will accumulate a dosage, or toxic load, of said contaminant that is dependent on a multitude of environmental factors. This thesis quantifies unpredictability – or variation – in toxic load measurements using downwind concentration data captured from finite-duration gaseous contaminant releases conducted at set conditions in the Chemical Hazards Research Center ultra-low speed wind tunnel.

Finite-duration releases can be divided into two categories – time-limited steady releases and puffs – …

Full Disclosure: Model Uncertainty In Adjusting For Confounders, Dieudonne Dusenge

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the role of knowledge about underlying causal relationships in classifying controls in order to mitigate omitted- and included-variable biases. Using simulations and accounting examples, the study shows that the researcher may not distinguish good and bad controls because the underlying causal relationships are unobservable, and remedying strategies (such as the relative timing of measurement) may not remove the uncertainty in the classification. Because of the uncertainty about which controls to use, two or more models will be credible as will the distinct estimates derived from them. Next, the study shows that the current standard practice of singling …

Comparing Actively Managed Mutual Fund Categories To Index Funds Using Linear Regression Forecasting And Portfolio Optimization, Luke Weiner

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The global investment industry offers a wide variety of investment products especially for individual investors. One such product, index funds, which are younger than actively managed mutual funds, have typically outperformed managed funds. Despite this phenomenon, investors have displayed a tendency to continue investing in actively managed funds. Although only a small percentage of actively managed funds outperform index funds, the costs of actively managed funds are significantly higher. Also, managed fund performances are most often determined by their fund category such as growth or real estate. I wanted to answer the following question for individual investors: can we …

Predicting The Likelihood And Scale Of Wildfires In California Using Meteorological And Vegetation Data, Matthew Walters

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Wildfires have devastating ecological, environmental, economical, and public health impacts through the deterioration of water and air quality, CO2 emissions, property damage, and lung illnesses. The early detection and prevention of wildfires allow for the minimization of these risks. The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in wildfire detection and prediction has been highly researched as a tool to assist firefighters in stopping wildfires in its early stages. The three common wildfire prediction categories include image and video detection, behavior prediction, and susceptibility prediction. Data such as climate, weather, vegetation, satellite images, and historical wildfire data is most commonly used. Many …

Optimization Of Vaccine Supply Chains In Low- And Middle-Income Countries Utilizing Drones, Maximilian Kolter

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Despite tremendous efforts from governments and humanitarian organizations, millions of children in low- and low-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) are still excluded from the benefits of immunization. The vaccine distribution in LICs and LMICs is challenging for several reasons, such as limited cold chain capacities, vaccine wastage, uncertain demand, and lack of access to immunization services. A promising avenue to address these issues is the utilization of drones for vaccine delivery. Drones can fly at high speed on direct paths and could enable on-demand deliveries to mitigate limited storage capacities. Further, their independence of road networks could allow them reaching …

Resilience-Driven Post-Disruption Restoration Of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems Under Uncertainty: Modeling, Risk-Averse Optimization, And Solution Approaches, Basem A. Alkhaleel

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Critical infrastructure networks (CINs) are the backbone of modern societies, which depend on their continuous and proper functioning. Such infrastructure networks are subjected to different types of inevitable disruptive events which could affect their performance unpredictably and have direct socioeconomic consequences. Therefore, planning for disruptions to CINs has recently shifted from emphasizing pre-disruption phases of prevention and protection to post-disruption studies investigating the ability of critical infrastructures (CIs) to withstand disruptions and recover timely from them. However, post-disruption restoration planning often faces uncertainties associated with the required repair tasks and the accessibility of the underlying transportation network. Such challenges are …

An Examination Of Grid Stability As It Relates To The Increased Integration Of Inverter-Based Resources, Daniel Voss

Electrical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

There is currently a growing interest in increasing the amount of renewable energy resources connected to the bulk electric system (BES) that stems from various environmental, political, and social concerns. However, the differences between conventional generation resources and inverter-based resources (IBR)—namely wind and solar—pose new issues that make this increased integration a larger problem. In other studies, the increased penetration of renewable energy resources has resulted in weak-grid systems that are more susceptible to collapse. This comes as a result from the inability for IBRs to effectively provide enough reactive power, an effect especially apparent during fault conditions, which the …

Decision Making Within An Nfl Context Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis, Lawson Porter

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sports league in the world, with millions of viewers every game and billions of dollars generated every season. Statistics are an important part of an NFL team’s business operating model and contribute greatly towards their decision making. Every season, general managers try to sign players that give the team the highest probability of winning games throughout the year. There are many factors that go into this decision, including the amount of money the team has to spend and the value that available players can bring to a team. Teams must abide …

Intruder Preference And Route Selection: A Gis Data Approach, Griffin Mathews

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested an Engineering Research and Development Center study incorporating modeling and simulation to determine the selection, amount, and optimal location of sensor suites along the U.S. Border. The study objective is to maximize the probability of detection and apprehension of illegal elements attempting to enter. A study on intruders and their preferences were conducted to create an intruder preference value map to determine the preferred intruder routes taken after crossing the border. The results of this research were integrated into another study on the selection and simulation of sensor suites.

Intruder context and preferences …

Developing An Ergonomic Model And Automation Justification For Industrial Spraying Operations: A Case Study, Anthony Woods

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Industrial spraying tasks prove to be some of the most dull, dirty, and dangerous jobs in the modern day. Although it is a ripe area for automation, justification methods do not typically account for the potential improvements in the ergonomics of a task from automating it. In addition, there is a gap in the ergonomics literature in formal methodologies to comprehensively evaluate an industrial spraying task ergonomically, including all relevant musculoskeletal elements. This research focuses on first developing a formal, comprehensive methodology for ergonomically evaluating industrial spraying tasks and attaining a final classification of the ergonomic ranking of the task. …

Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear of …

Incorporating A New Class Of Uncertainty In Disaster Relief Logistics Planning, Emre Kirac

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, there has been a growing interest among emergency managers in using Social data in disaster response planning. However, the trustworthiness and reliability of posted information are two of the most significant concerns, because much of the user-generated data is initially not verified. Therefore, a key tradeoff exists for emergency managers when considering whether to incorporate Social data in disaster planning efforts. By considering Social data, a larger number of needs can be identified in a shorter amount of time, potentially enabling a faster response and satisfying a class of demand that might not otherwise be discovered. However, …

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad …

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems throughout their life cycle. There is a growing literature with qualitative definitions of resilience and quantitative models for systems with one performance measure. This paper uses a quantitative resilience framework (the Framework for ERS) that includes system design options, reliability, threats, vulnerabilities, responses, and consequences assessed in multiple system performance measures. The framework assists in establishing a model for any system to evaluate resiliency. This paper applies this framework using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) to …

Reliability Analysis Of Social Networks, Kellie R. Schneider

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The primary focus of this dissertation is on the quantification of actor interaction and the dissemination of information through Social networks. Social networks have long been used to model the interactions between people in various Social and professional contexts. These networks allow for the explicit modeling of the complex interrelations between relevant individuals within an organization and the role they play in the decision making process. This dissertation considers Social networks represented as network flow models in which actors have the ability to provide some level of influence over other actors within the network. The models developed incorporate performance metrics …

Documented Aids Cases As The Basis For Projections Of Adolescence Hiv Infections In The Us, R. Ron Goforth, S. A. Goforth

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Twenty percent of AIDS cases in the U.S. occur in individuals in the age range 20 to 29. The mean incubation time, the time from infection to the onset of AIDS, is in the order of 8 years. Therefore, most of these AIDS cases represent HIV infections that occurred during mid- to late-adolescence. About 800 officially reported cases in the age group 13 to 19 have occurred in the U.S. This low occurrence of AIDS should not be a source of complacency in assessing the need to provide education and behavioral alternatives to this age group. As the predominate mode …