Risk Analysis Commons^™

Outrigger Design And The Stability Of Outrigger Boats, Benedicto Mercado Selirio

World Maritime University Dissertations

Philippine outrigger boats are small wooden boats that have the distinct characteristics of a very slender hull and bamboo outriggers at each side. The study focuses on the outrigger design and their effect on boat stability. The main idea is to see if there is any design flaw to make the boat susceptible to capsizing. The paper briefly looks into the social and economic significance of outrigger boats in the Philippines and their various uses. It examines recent boat accidents involving boats that capsized and their probable cause. A review of basic outrigger boat parts introduces readers to the boat …

Fire Safety In Connection With The Transport And Handling Of Dangerous Cargoes In Port Areas, Adama Sy

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Fisheries Management Report No. 1 - The Impact Of Occupational Safety And Health On The Management Of Western Australian Fisheries, Cameron Wilson

Fisheries Published Reports

This report has been produced at the request of Fisheries Western Australia ("Fisheries Department") as a result of a fixed term consultancy by Pacific Management Systems Pty Ltd ("Pacific").

In essence, the Terms of Reference require consideration of the interaction and possible conflict between the principal piece of legislation governing safety and health of employees in Western Australian workplaces, the Occupational Safety and Health Act 1984 ('OSH Act'), and the Fish Resources Management Act 1994 ('FRM Act') being the principal source of legislation in respect of the management of Western Australia's fish resources.

Concerns with regard to the possible conflict …

Review Of The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture And Deviance At Nasa, Peter F. Meiksins

Sociology & Criminology Faculty Publications

Reviews the book "The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture and Deviance at NASA," by Diane Vaughan.

How The Presence Of A Risk Ladder, Time Interval Comparison, And Smoking Comparison Affect Risk Perception, Steve A. Dinzart

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this study is to increase the knowledge available on the relative effectiveness of risk ladders as a presentation format for explaining risk magnitudes to the public. An experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses that an individual's risk perception varies with the presence of a risk ladder, time interval comparison, and smoking comparison. Subjects were AFIT Professional Continuing Education students, asked to assume a particular level of a health hazard in their homes, to read a brochure explaining the hazard, and then to complete a questionnaire. Results demonstrated that subjects exposed to a graphical risk ladder perceived …

Predicting Mishap Rates At Closing Usaf Maintenance Depots, Douglas E. Mcclain

Theses and Dissertations

It is clear that the Department of Defense and the USAF, in an effort to cut costs, will continue to reduce infrastructure through base closures. This has particular implications to the civilian employee who will likely lose his or her job. The purpose of this study was to review the most recent literature relating to safety and industrial facility closures and develop a theoretical model for predicting accident or mishap rates. From the literature reviewed, a theoretical model is proposed containing five candidate variables intended to measure; perceived adequacy of employee safety training, perceived safety culture, perceived safety climate, self-reported …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

Physical And Managed Risk Of Nuclear Waste, Lennart Sjöberg, Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjöberg

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors describe their work on the perceived risk of nuclear waste in Sweden. Three levels of waste were studied, and comparisons between the perceptions of the public, politicians and nuclear experts are made.

Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle

Theses and Dissertations

This research optimized two measures of network security by hardening components and improving their reliability. A common measure of effectiveness (MOE) for networks is statistical reliability, which ignores the effects of hostile actions. A new MOE which includes hostile actions was developed. Both measures require component reliability functions, derived using fault trees. Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify uncertainty. Results from the model are compared to traditional Risk Assessment results.

C-17/Paratrooper Risk Assessment Analysis, Jose C. Belano

Theses and Dissertations

The C-17 test and evaluation community has been testing different aircraft formation geometries in search of a configuration which minimizes paratrooper encounter with the wake vortices of upstream aircraft. This thesis develops a simulation tool that the C-17 test and evaluation community can utilize as an advanced risk assessment model to use on proposed formation geometries prior to live testing. The model is developed under the architecture of object-oriented simulation using MODSIM III and parallels similar efforts by the Aerodynamic Decelerator Technology community in creating object-oriented counterparts to already developed trajectory models of various degrees of freedom. This thesis develops …

A Monte Carlo Model Of Uncertainty In A Deterministic Hazardous Waste Transportation Risk Assessment, Michael A. Cowen

Masters Theses

This thesis is aimed at developing and applying advanced modeling tools in the prediction of risk to the general public from transportation of chemical waste on public highways. The modeling tools developed can then be used to compare alternative waste management scenarios. The application considered is related to the transport of hazardous waste generated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to current treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. DOE is currently considering four different scenarios.

The application considered can be more specifically defined as an analysis of the risk to the general public from transporting the 63 shipments of …

An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand

Theses and Dissertations

Rocket launches at Vandenburg Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Station produce exhaust clouds containing several toxic by-products, including HC1 and A12O3. These clouds rise to atmospheric stabilization heights, and then start dispersing and diffusing through the air. Upon reaching the ground, concentration levels of the toxins may present a human health risk. To predict these risks and concentration levels, range officials use a computer program titled the Rocket Effluent Exhaust Diffusion Model (REEDM). The version currently in use has been shown to underpredict the stabilization height of the exhaust cloud. This thesis examines the theory and algorithms used …

Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis Techniques To Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs, Alejandro Hinojos

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of remediation resources have been consumed by costly and lengthy remedial investigation studies to characterize the human health risk. Unable to deal directly with the uncertainty resulting from the convolution of the uncertainties in a multitude of variables, and heavily persuaded by the liabilities, decision makers and regulators have relied on conservative assumptions and more studies to take appropriate actions. The main objective of this research is to provide tools and techniques to aid risk analysts in determining whether it would be beneficial to gather additional information or whether the decision to take an appropriate action can be …

An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham

Theses and Dissertations

As the Air Force has progressed and succeeded in the realm of pollution prevention, the opportunities for further progress have become more challenging. With the 'low-hanging fruit' now gone from the pollution prevention tree, new methods to identify opportunities must be adopted. This research effort applied a subset of activity based costing, activity driver analysis, to reveal pollution prevention opportunities in regards to hazardous materials usage. A sample of base organizations (civil engineering and aircraft maintenance), and a sample of the hazardous chemicals (Class C or most hazardous) used by those organizations were investigated to determine the drivers behind usage.

Evaluation Of Hazardous Material Life Cycle Cost Tools For Use In Air Force Hazardous Material Pharmacies, Rowene J. Resler

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on evaluation of various tools that assist in the selection of hazardous material substitutes. Substitute material consideration is a function of the Hazardous Material Pharmacy (HMP) when a hazardous material is requested for purchase and use in a current base operation. The substitute material decision is complex, involving identification of potential substitutes and then comparison of factors, such as cost, performance, and environmental effects, between the potential substitute and the material being requested. Various tools such as life cycle cost models, databases, and other information services can provide assistance to HMPs making substitution decisions.

Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim

Theses and Dissertations

Previous work on personnel airdrop problems involving jumpers has been (1) event-oriented entanglement rates, (2) number of canopy bumps, (3) landing injuries, and (4) deaths. The thesis expands this area of research by developing cumulative distribution functions of maximum possible chute entanglement risk for the C-17 using bootstrap techniques. By comparing the effects of various C-17 aircraft configurations on the entanglement CDF, this thesis shows that under certain configurations the risk of centerline entanglement for the C-17 is less than for the C-141.

Development Of A Basis For A Hazardous Materials And Waste Management System For Air Force Contingency Deployments, Christopher J. West

Theses and Dissertations

Increased awareness of the potential for adverse mission impact on deployments, recent experience on such deployments, and Air Force and Major Command interest establish the need for an integrated hazardous materials and waste management system for contingency environments. This research was focused toward establishing a basis for developing such a system. An intensive literature review was accomplished to justify the necessity of the research, characterize the contingency environment, review legal and regulatory requirements, review proper hazardous substance handling and processing procedures, and review existing and new material resources which may be employed in such a system. Further literature review led …

An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Risk Alignment And Cost Performance, Christopher M. Wegner

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the relationship between risk alignment and cost performance in DoD procurement. Both the government and the contractor conduct independent assessments of the perceived risk in a contract. The results of inaccurate risk assessments are undesirable consequences, one of which is the inability to achieve cost targets. If both the contractor's and the government's perceptions of risk are in alignment with the actual risk involved in a contract, then we would expect minimal impact. If, however, either or both parties fail to accurately assess the actual risk, then we would expect consequences, such as cost overrun/underrun. The level …

Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Energy is focusing a long-term development effort on producing cheaper, safer, and faster state-of-the-art soil remediation technologies. To assist with the management of these innovative technology development projects, ways of quantifiably measuring technical risk were investigated through a detailed literature review. 'Technical risk' was defined in this study as the combination of the consequences of undesired events and their likelihood. Careful design of the inputs into a technology selection decision support system accounted for the uncertainty in forecasting final characteristics of remediation technologies still in the early phases of R&D. Experts made subjective probability estimates of these …

How Location And An Action Standard On A Risk Ladder Affect Perceived Risk, Lonny P. Baker

Theses and Dissertations

Efforts to explain risk magnitudes often rely on a risk ladder in which exposure levels and associated risk estimates are arranged with low levels at the bottom of the ladder and high levels at the top. An experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses that perceived threat varies with the location of a subject's assigned level on the risk ladder, and that perceived threat varies with the presence of an action standard on the risk ladder. Air Force Institute of Technology Professional Continuing Education students were asked to assume a particular level of a hypothetical hazard in their residences, to …

The Effects Of Risk Management Program Implementation On Worker Safety Knowledge, John C. Donnelly

Community & Environmental Health Theses & Dissertations

This study examined the effect of the implementation of a risk management program tool on worker safety knowledge in a composite building material fabrication facility whose workers suffered from an increasingly high injury (incidence) rate in recent years. Risk assessment codes (RACs) and job safety analyses (JSAs) were the primary tools used to introduce workers to the concept of risk. Because employee involvement is a crucial element in JSA development. employee input was frequently solicited throughout JSA development.

The study instrument consisted of a pre-test and post-test survey, to which an experimental and control group were subjected. The instrument was …

A Comparison Of Remediation Priorities Developed By The Defense Priority Model, The Relative Risk Evaluation Method, And A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach, David M. Hunter

Theses and Dissertations

The Superfund, established by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, seriously underestimated both the number of severely contaminated sites and the associated cleanup cost. The magnitude of projected cleanup costs, coupled with shrinking federal budgets, necessitated the development and use of risk-based prioritization models among some federal agencies. Among these tools, the DOD prioritization models are meant to give priority to sites posing the greatest threat to human health. Their failure to properly rank sites could incorrectly shift the focus from those that pose substantial risk to sites of lesser risk. The DOD site ranking …

A Systems Engineering Approach To Environmental Risk Management: A Case Study Of Depleted Uranium At Test Area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, Charles M. Carter, Kristina M. Fortmann, Stephen W. Hill, Robert M. Latin, Edward J. Masterson, Joseph A. Roh, Sujay R. Setlur

Theses and Dissertations

Environmental restoration is an area of concern in an environmentally conscious world. Much effort is required to clean up the environment and promote environmentally sound methods for managing current land use. In light of the public consciousness with the latter topic, the United States Air Force must also take an active role in addressing these environmental issues with respect to current and future USAF base land use. This thesis uses the systems engineering technique to assess human health risks and to evaluate risk management options with respect to depleted uranium contamination in the sampled region of Test Area (TA) C-64 …

Review Of: Richard 0. Gamble Ii, How To Reduce Professional Liability For Engineers And Architects, Erik C. Swanson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Review of Richard 0. Gamble II, How to Reduce Professional Liability for Engineers and Architects (Noyes Data Corporation 1987) Foreword, references, index, table of cases. LC: 87-12256; ISBN: 0-8155-1128-0. [102 pp. Cloth $36.00. Mill Road, Park Ridge NJ 07656.]

Suitability Of The Present Strategic Information Technology Planning (Sitp) Methodologies To The Developing Countries, A Victor

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The needfor strategy formulation, or in general terms strategic planning, for IT is considered as one of the most important aspects of IT manage- ment. To this end, there are a number of IT strategy formulation method- ologies world-wide. These methodologies were developed over a span of time, starting from mid 1960's when IT use started to become a serious issue in the developed countries, and continued with the trends in IT de- velopment and use, as was applicable in those countries. Morc recent of the methodologies were developed through improvements on earlier ones, and based on the new challenges …

Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal, Baruch Fischhoff

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Challenging the "de minimis risk" concept, Dr. Fischhoff argues that risks ought not to be considered apart from a particular technology's benefits. He argues, too, that the acceptability of particular kinds of risks should not be determined without considering the views of all persons who may be exposed. Finally, building upon the "reasonable person" construct, he suggests ways those goals might be achieved.

An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright

Theses and Dissertations

Each year the Air Force awards weapon system contracts worth billions of dollars using the source selection process. In the source selection, performance and risk assessments are evaluated to determine the best proposal; the proposal that gives the best overall value. The purpose of this research was to investigate the performance/risk trade-off in the source selection decision making process. The study also examined the effect individual risk propensities and the nature of item being evaluated have on the performance/risk trade-off decisions. Air Force acquisition personnel stationed at Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, who had participated in a source selection …

A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald

Theses and Dissertations

This study refines risk analysis procedures for trichloroethylene (TCE) using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate random sets of model parameters, based on the mean, variance, and distribution types. The procedure generates a range of exposure values for human excess lifetime cancer risk of lxl0 (exp-6), based on the upper and lower bounds and the mean of a 95% confidence interval. Risk ranges were produced for both ingestion and inhalation exposures. Results are presented in a graphical format to reduce reliance on qualitative discussions of …

A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis assesses the risk of the health liabilities from exposure to toxic metals found in the composted material of Air Force municipal solid waste (MSW). The goal is to determine the probability that the composted MSW could be a health hazard if it were used as a soil amendment. The research limited the assessment of the exposure risk to heavy metals found in raw MSW and its resulting compost. The thesis uses reviews of present literature to examine the food and soil ingestion exposure pathways. These pathways are assessed using the heavy metal concentrations found in MSW compost and …

Development Of A Cost-Effectiveness Methodology To Prioritize Environmental Mitigation Projects, Robert E. Thompson

Theses and Dissertations

A cost-effectiveness prioritization methodology was developed using concepts from the cost-effectiveness technique. The new methodology called the Cost-Effectiveness methodology (CEM) allows the prioritization of mitigation projects across broad categories of hazardous sites as would be ranked among the offices of the Environmental Protection Agency. Two performance criteria were incorporated into the process--rank projects that save the most lives per dollar and enhance general applicability across different categories of risk. A metric was developed that represents the ratio of lives saved per dollar spent on mitigation alternatives of contaminated environmental sites. This metric was incorporated into the CEM to distinguish mitigation …