Risk Analysis Commons^™

Planning Innovation For Implementing Modular Prefabricated Construction In Housing Development In Indonesia Using A Risk-Based Iso 56002:2019 Approach To Improve Project Performance, Deansa Agya Rahman, Yusuf Latief

Smart City

The development of housing in Indonesia, growing rapidly due to urbanization and population growth, faces challenges in terms of land, labor, and housing backlog. Despite being innovative, modular prefabrication methods are limited by unattractive designs and high costs, slowing down construction, harming the productivity of construction companies, and hindering the growth of the national construction sector. These challenges are prevalent in various countries and are influenced by low knowledge, conservative mindsets, and inhibiting regulations. In Indonesia, additional issues include a lack of mastery of modular prefabrication methods and awareness of long-term benefits. This research identified innovative risk-based applications of modular …

Addressing Mercury Contamination From Artisanal Gold Mining In Colombia: Pollution Exposure, Health Risk, And Educational Efforts In The Communities Of La Toma, Colombia, Kelli Mccourt

All Dissertations

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) has become a primary environmental and public health concern in the region of Colombia known as Alto Cauca. The predominantly Afro-descendent communities of Yolombó and La Toma in Alto Cauca have experienced pollution linked to the use of mercury in the ASGM process. For the past decade, mercury has emerged as a contaminant of increasing concern in the communities due to its toxicity and ability to bioaccumulate and biomagnify. Likewise, mining in the region raises concerns over the leaching of metals into local waters. Given the complexity of risk and pollution in the communities, …

Systemic Risk Analysis Of Human Factors In Phishing, Mark Guilford

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The scope of this study is the systemic risk of the role of humans in the risk of phishing. The relevance to engineering managers and systems engineers of the risks of phishing attacks is the theft of data which has significantly increased in the past couple of years. Phishing has become a systemic persistent threat to all internet users. Understanding the role of humans in phishing from a systemic perspective is a critical objective towards creating a strong defense against complex and manipulative phishing attacks. The systemic view of phishing concentrates on how phishing affects the entire organizational system, not …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

A Human Factors Study Of Risk Management Of Complex Agile Scrum Projects In Large Enterprises, Ravi Kalluri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Agile Project Management methods have gained phenomenal success in the IT software world in managing projects of high complexity and uncertainty. However, Agile projects come with their unique set of risks. This paper seeks to explore the risks posed by human factors to complex Agile Scrum projects in large enterprises. Project Risk Management is crucial in determining the future performance of a complex project. Increasing project complexity makes it more and more difficult to anticipate potential events that could affect the project and to make effective decisions to reduce project risk exposure. This is even more true for Agile projects …

Influence Of The Inherent Safety Principles On Quantitative Risk In Process Industry: Application Of Genetic Algorithm Process Optimization (Gapo), Mehdi Jahangiri, Abolfazl Moghadasi, Mojtaba Kamalinia, Farid Sadeghianjahromi, Sean Banaee

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Inherent safety (IS) refers to a set of measures that enhance the safety level of processes and equipment, rendering additional equipment and/or add-ons. The early design phase of processes is suited best for implementation of IS strategies as some of such strategies either are impossible to be implemented at the operation phase or substantially increase costs. The purpose of this study is to present a new approach called genetic algorithm process optimization (GAPO), by which processes can be made inherently safer even at the operation phase. This study simulates the IS principle, assessing its impact on quantitative risk and the …

Assessment Of Project Risks In Fast-Track Construction Projects, Claudia Garrido Martins

Civil Engineering ETDs

Fast-tracking has been extensively used to respond to demands for reduced construction project delivery times. Unique risks arising from the overlapping of activities can threaten the project. A framework is proposed to assess project risks in fast-track construction projects to better understand the intersection of fast-track, risks, and construction. The research used a commercial construction renovation project as a case study, semi-structured interviews, simulation and optimization methods to identify risks of overlapping activities, classify the risks, evaluate the impact of risks and risk mitigation actions, and optimal combinations to minimize the risk impact and mitigation costs. This study resulted in …

On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper we explore an issue that is different from whether developers are responsible for the direct impact of the software they write. We examine, instead, in what ways, and to what degree, developers are responsible for the way their software is used “downstream.” We review some key scholarship analyzing responsibility in computing ethics, including some recent work by Floridi. We use an adaptation of a mechanism developed by Floridi to argue that there are features of software that can be used as guides to better distinguish situations where a software developer might share in responsibility for the software’s …

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors …

Pathology-Informed Approach In Vulnerability Assessment Methods, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Adrian V. Gheorghe, Charles B. Keating

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A system pathology is a circumstance, condition, or pattern that acts to limit system performance, or lessen system viability, such that the likelihood of a system achieving performance expectation is reduced. The idea of pathology has been described in multiple fields, including computer science, organizational studies, policy analysis, system-of-systems engineering, and systems engineering. However, there is scarcity of literature describing relationship between system pathology and vulnerability assessment. The aim of this study lies at the intersection of system pathology and vulnerability assessment in engineered systems. First, authors provide the state of the art review of literature on system pathology. Second, …

Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear of …

Risk Optimized Microgrid Resource Management, Thomas William Cashel Iii

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis proposes a risk based price adjustment method for a day ahead scheduling of a distribution side tiered community microgrid within a transactive energy style market. The system is organized into a master controller and local controller confïguration to simulate behind meter activity that is not visible to the master controller. Conditional value at risk is used to asses the risk of distributed energy resources in each local controller and the risk for each local controller is aggregated providing each local controller a single risk value. Each device's, or local controller's, risk value is used to adjust the price …

Human Survival, Risk, And Law: Considering Risk Filters To Replace Cost-Benefit Analysis, John William Draper

Librarian Scholarship at Penn Law

Selfish utilitarianism, neo-classical economics, the directive of short-term income maximization, and the decision tool of cost-benefit analysis fail to protect our species from the significant risks of too much consumption, pollution, or population. For a longer-term survival, humanity needs to employ more than cost-justified precaution.

This article argues that, at the global level, and by extension at all levels of government, we need to replace neo-classical economics with filters for safety and feasibility to regulate against significant risk. For significant risks, especially those that are irreversible, we need decision tools that will protect humanity at all scales. This article describes …

Strategies For Reducing Supplier Risk: Inputs Into The Supply Chain, Christopher A. Greene

Masters Theses

There are many aspects to consider when managing an entire supply chain from procurement to fulfillment. Complex assemblies require hundreds of components, sourced from all corners of the globe, to come together in a synchronized fashion. Given the magnitude of the supply chain, high quality standards, and significantly increased outsourcing, there is a strong need to monitor supplier risk and quickly identify and mitigate potential problems. Moreover, the continuous pressure to reduce resources and pressure to cut costs, further increases the need for the development of procedures and tools that can quickly and efficiently address these potential supply chain risks. …

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs …

Risk Management In Motorway Ppp Projects: Empirical-Based Guidelines, Nunzia Carbonara, Nicola Costantino, Louis Gunnigan, Roberta Pellegrino

Articles

This paper deals with the topic of risk management in Public–Private Partnership (PPP). The analysis of the related literature reveals that risks must be analyzed and managed on a context-specific approach, and that there is a lack of a comprehensive study on the appropriate risk mitigation strategies for each risk embedded in PPP projects. Focusing on the transport sector, based on the results of a Delphi survey, the paper provides guidelines for both public and private parties in defining a list of significant risks in PPP motorway projects, and identifying for them both the effective allocation and the suitable mitigation …

Interpreting, Stephanie Jo Kent

Doctoral Dissertations

What do community interpreting for the Deaf in western societies, conference interpreting for the European Parliament, and language brokering in international management have in common? Academic research and professional training have historically emphasized the linguistic and cognitive challenges of interpreting, neglecting or ignoring the social aspects that structure communication. All forms of interpreting are inherently social; they involve relationships among at least three people and two languages. The contexts explored here, American Sign Language/English interpreting and spoken language interpreting within the European Parliament, show that simultaneous interpreting involves attitudes, norms and values about intercultural communication that overemphasize information and discount …

Special Section Editorial: Risk, Complexity And Sustainability, Lindsay Robertson, Katina Michael

Professor Katina Michael

This special section is dedicated to risk as understood within our society, in which we depend upon increasingly complex and interconnected technologies for even our most basic needs - water, food, shelter, electricity, gas, sewage, communications, and banking.

Natural disasters and their impact on vital services has been a research area that has flourished, especially since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in South Asia. Out of this research has come forth a plethora of strategies for addressing short term and geographically defined disasters. While such disaster preparedness systems are vital to minimise the …

Effects Of Different Methods Of Aggregation Of Probabilities On The R&D Investment Portfolio For Optimal Emissions Abatement: An Empirical Evaluation, Olaitan P. Olaleye

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

This thesis examines two possible orders of combining multiple experts in elicitations with multiple de-composed events: Should experts be combined early or later in the decision process? This thesis is in conjunction with the paper (Baker & Olaleye, 2012) where we show that it is best to combine experts early as later combination leads to a systematic error. We conduct a simulation to more fully flesh out the theoretical model. We also conduct a theoretical analysis aimed at determining how significantly these two methods differ. We find that all results are in accordance with the theory but combining experts later …

The Law And Economics Of Liability Insurance: A Theoretical And Empirical Review, Tom Baker, Peter Siegelman

All Faculty Scholarship

We survey the theoretical and empirical literature on the law and economics of liability insurance. The canonical Shavell model predicts that, despite the presence of some ex ante moral hazard (care-reduction by insureds), liability insurance will generally raise welfare because its risk-spreading gains will likely be larger than its adverse effects on precautionary activities. We discuss the numerous features of liability insurance contracts that are designed to reduce ex ante moral hazard, and examine the evidence of their effects. Most studies conclude that these features work reasonably well, so that liability insurance probably does not generate substantial ex ante moral …

The Shifting Terrain Of Risk And Uncertainty On The Liability Insurance Field, Tom Baker

All Faculty Scholarship

Recent sociological and historical work suggests that insurance risks often are not reliably calculable, except in hindsight. Insurance is “an uncertain business,” characterized by competition for premiums that pushes insurers into the unknown. This essay takes some preliminary steps that extend this insight into the liability insurance field. The essay first provides a simple quantitative comparison of U.S. property and liability insurance premiums over the last sixty years, setting the stage to make three points: (1) liability insurance premiums have grown at a similar rate as property insurance premiums and GDP over this period, providing yet another piece of evidence …

Understanding Risk Governance: Introducing Sociological Neoinstitutionalism And Foucauldian Governmentality For Further Theorizing, Wee Kiat Lim

CMP Research

This article traces the career of risk across prominent theoretical approaches by highlighting their key assumptions and premises, specifically the technical approach found in the physical sciences, and economics, psychology, and sociology in the social sciences. In each discipline, the strengths and limitations of each theoretical approach are pointed out. The discussion focuses on sociology in particular because other approaches—in treating risks as dominantly technical, psychological, or economic phenomena—tend to downplay the broader historical and socio-political context that impinges on risk construction and production, and its differential impact across society. This exploration points out that institutions play an important role …

An Evaluation Of Risk Management Courses Offered In Engineering Management Programs, S. Jimmy Gandhi, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

For this paper, the authors have surveyed a total of 22 engineering management (EM) programs in the United States (both accredited and non-accredited). The purpose of this study was to analyze the offering of risk management courses as part of the engineering management curriculum. The findings showed that the majority of the programs did not offer a single dedicated course on risk management and merely covered the topic as part of other courses such as project management. The authors have made recommendations that risk management should be included as a required part of the EM curriculum due to the higher …

Goal Approach To Risk Scenario Identification In Systems Development, Cesar Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Rafael Landaeta

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the exploration of fundamental issues in identifying risk scenarios during systems development. Systems development refers to a series of processes which span conceptualization, designing the architecture, obtaining the elements, and eventually integrating all these elements into the fully developed final system. For truly sustainable and green systems, identifying risk scenarios early and continuously over the system development processes is vital. This paper contains various descriptions of risk from the project (i.e. programmatic) and technical perspectives, an exploration of the generally accepted risk management process, and how these relate to systems development through system goals. …

Development Of A Framework To Evaluate Human Risk Towards Sustainable Risk Management, Ra'ed M. Jaradat, Rani A. Kady, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Risk managers are constantly faced with the challenge of making decisions at various levels of their organizations. One of the challenges, which often times is unavoidable, lies in assigning a monetary value to human risks. Such challenge necessitates engineering managers to make educated decisions on the level of risk that the organizations and businesses should accept when it comes to human. The purpose of this study is to suggest a suitable framework that captures this aspect of engineering Risk Management in order to make rational and sustainable decisions about such assessed risk. This will be accomplished by exploring the tools, …

Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Rani Kady

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the survey of both fundamental and most recent publications in system-of-systems, business and insurance, as well as risk analysis, modeling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk in recognition of emergence and complexity which characterizes many systems within the concern of engineering and business managers. The ultimate goal is to provide engineering and business managers the necessary perspective on the concept of risk and in its management for the next generation of sustainable systems - including various descriptions of risk and discussion of the relevance of properties of system-of-systems …

Managing Risks Associated With The Jbcc(Principal Building Agreement) From Thesouth African Contractor’S Perspective, Ayman Ahmed Ezzat Othman, Nishani Harinarain

Architectural Engineering

Construction is a complex and risky business. It is a time-consuming process involving a multitude of organisations with different objectives and skills. In addition, increasing client expectations coupled with the technological development of materials and equipment made the construction industry subject to more risks than any other industry. Contracts are essential tools for organising the relationship between involved parties and managing associated risk. For years the South African construction industry had a very poor reputation in managing construction risks. In order to improve the image of the South African construction industry and to assist contractors to develop their proper risk …

Risk Perception Regarding Energy Production: Factor Structure In A French Sample, Etienne Mullet, Anne Bertrand, Cécilia Lazreg, Sheila Rivière Shafighi

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "Considering that energy production is a key factor in the development of nations, it is important to have detailed information on the risks attributed by lay people to the different types of energy as well as the different stages of energy production. This study reports on the structure of risk perception with regard to energy production found among French participants. There have already been many investigations of risk perception related to energy production. . . .

The present study is a direct extension of the Mullet study. A similar, although more complete, set of items was used. These items …

Analysis Of Usaf Medium And Heavylift Space Launch Mission Reliability Requirements, Arthur R. Dawkins

Theses and Dissertations

The launch services that the USAF procures to carry DOD payloads into orbit are characterized by high risks and high costs. If a launch vehicle experiences a catastrophic failure, the cost of the entire launch vehicle, the launch processing, and the payload are completely lost (often in excess of 1,5 billion dollars.) Despite this enormous risk for the payload customer, and indeed the launch provider, launch success rates around the world are not much above 90 percent. The current USAF medium and heavylift launch systems are often based on technology that is 20 years old and older. Furthermore, little historical …

Review Of: Richard 0. Gamble Ii, How To Reduce Professional Liability For Engineers And Architects, Erik C. Swanson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Review of Richard 0. Gamble II, How to Reduce Professional Liability for Engineers and Architects (Noyes Data Corporation 1987) Foreword, references, index, table of cases. LC: 87-12256; ISBN: 0-8155-1128-0. [102 pp. Cloth $36.00. Mill Road, Park Ridge NJ 07656.]