Risk Analysis Commons^™

Development Of A Knowledge Based System For Wastewater Pipeline Failure Risk Assessment, Adam Mayanzani Ngaliga

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to study and analyze the wastewater pipeline failure risk assessment process, and then design and develop an effective and efficient wastewater pipeline risk assessment tool for the Hampton Roads Sanitation District, in Virginia, U.S.A. A knowledge based system was developed using an expert system building shell (Xi-Plus).

The system design is based on the knowledge elicited from the experts and literature in sanitary pipeline failure risk evaluation. The knowledge base contains both heuristics and procedural rules. The system interprets the information provided by the user and reasons from that information to reach conclusions on …

Economic Impacts Of Noxious Facilities: Incorporating The Effects Of Risk Aversion, Leslie A. Nieves

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The author suggests an integrative approach for projecting economic impacts of facilities that elicit public Risk aversion. She incorporates both economic stimulus effects and perception-based effects of facilities on the host area economy. Empirical findings are compared and an impact estimation framework is suggested for integrating psychometric and econometric techniques.

Large Capacity Missile Carrier (Cmx), C. N. Calvano, J. M. Berner, J. M. Bradley, K. A. Tosiello, D. T. Hooker, C. F. Merrill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A systems engineering approach to the development of a radically different kind of surface combatant ship is presented, followed by a preliminary design of the ship shown by the analysis to be most effective. The requirement for the project was the development of a ship which would provide a major increase in the missile firepower of a battlegroup. The study conducts an analysis of four warfare scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of replacing some Aegis ships with the missile carrier (CMX) and examines the relative utility of varying missile loads for the CMX. An alternative is chosen for further development …

Risk Reduction As A Criterion For Measuring Progress Of The Installation Restoration Program, Scott Edwards Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

To properly manage the Installation Restoration Program (IRP) in the future, the Air Force (AF) needs a method to assess progress based on improvements in environmental conditions. An integral part of evaluating progress toward protecting human health and the environment is the assessment of risk reduction as a result of cleanup actions. The AF currently uses the Defense Priority Model (DPM) to assist in setting priorities for funding remedial actions at IRP sites. The DPM provides a numerical score for IRP sites representing the relative potential risk based on the environmental conditions at a site before remedial actions are taken. …

Risk Identification In Major Weapon Systems Acquisition In The Republic Of China Air Force, Te-Lung Tsai

Theses and Dissertations

This research examined the magnitudes of the performance, supportability, life-cycle cost, schedule, and management risk factors in current Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) weapon systems acquisition programs and analyzed the risk drivers with respect to those risk factors. Mid-to-high level managers in the ROCAF and Chung-Sun Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST) were surveyed to determine the extent to which various risk factors were contributing to program risk. A total of fifty-four (54) managers responded to the survey. The results indicate: high risks to performance, supportability, life cycle cost, and schedule, and moderate risk to management. Risk-drivers that contributed …

The Safety Risks Of Proposed Fuel Economy Legislation, John D. Graham

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Based on, e.g., a comprehensive assessment of what is known of factors influencing automobile safety, previous industry responses to requirements for fuel economy and prior success of regulators in reducing injuries, Professor Graham concludes that pending fuel economy bills are apt to add 1650 fatalities and 8500 serious accidents to the annual highway toll. He also presents several short-term and long-term strategies for simultaneously saving fuel and lives.

Nothing Recedes Like Success - Risk Analysis And The Organizational Amplification Of Risks, William R. Freudenburg

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Freudenburg believes that there is room for improvement in Risk analysis, particularly in drawing on systematic studies of human behavior in the calculation of real, empirical probabilities of failure. The need is argued to be especially acute where technological Risks are associated with low expected probabilities of failure and are managed by human organizations for extended periods of time. This permits complacency to set in.

Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Thompson responds to Valverde's argument, in the last issue, that his approach to Risk puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism. In doing so, he asserts, inter alia, that anchoring Risk judgments in a probabilistic framework does not go far enough in rejecting reigning Risk-analysis notions of "real Risk."

Summary Of Workshop To Review An Omb Report On Regulatory Risk Assessment And Management, John S. Evans, John D. Graham, George M. Gray, Adrienne Hollis

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Summary of the results of an invitational workshop conducted to peer review the 1990 OMB report, CURRENT REGULATORY ISSUES IN Risk ASSESSMENT AND Risk MANAGENMENTIN REGULATORY PROGRAM OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, APRIL 1, 1990 - MARCH 31, 1991.

Documented Aids Cases As The Basis For Projections Of Adolescence Hiv Infections In The Us, R. Ron Goforth, S. A. Goforth

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Twenty percent of AIDS cases in the U.S. occur in individuals in the age range 20 to 29. The mean incubation time, the time from infection to the onset of AIDS, is in the order of 8 years. Therefore, most of these AIDS cases represent HIV infections that occurred during mid- to late-adolescence. About 800 officially reported cases in the age group 13 to 19 have occurred in the U.S. This low occurrence of AIDS should not be a source of complacency in assessing the need to provide education and behavioral alternatives to this age group. As the predominate mode …

The Risk Of Reliance On Perceived Risk, Frank B. Cross

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Cross's comment is closely related to the debate between Thompson and Valverde. Using examples that do not commonly appear in the "Risk" literature, he argues that: Giving weight to perceived Risk may seem liberal insofar as it gives more say to the "little guy," but giving perceived Risk too much weight could have distinctly illiberal social consequences.

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"

An Investigation Of The Air Force Risk Model, Thomas R. O'Hara

Theses and Dissertations

This study develops a dependent component cost risk model validation methodology and applies it to the Air Force Risk Model. The validation process consists of ensuring that logically consistent input parameters are acted on properly by the cost risk methodology. users of all dependent component risk models must be concerned with logically consistent input parameters. Two criteria define logical consistency. The first is the correlation matrix consistency and the second is the consistency between pairs of cost distributions. Three validation criteria are defined and used to validate a cost risk model. The first criterion is that the process must maintain …

Perceived Risks Versus Actual Risks: Managing Hazards Through Negotiation, Kristin S. Shrader-Frechette

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The author describes what she calls the "Expert-Judgment Strategy", finding that, because it discounts lay perceptions of Risk, it interferes with the acceptance of important but Risky technologies.

The Role Of Scientists In Risk Assessment, Halina Szejwald Brown, Robert L. Goble

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors argue that Risk assessors belong to a profession and offer an alternative to the 1983 National Research Council model defining Risk assessment. They support and illustrate their model by reexamining three familiar Risk assessments: ethylene dibromide, WASH 1400, and Ice Minus Bacteria.

Risk Objectivism And Risk Subjectivism: When Are Risks Real, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Typically, those who discuss Risk management envision a two-step process wherein, first, Risk is more or less objectively appraised and, second, the acceptability of those Risks is subjectively evaluated. This paper questions the philosophical foundations of that approach.

Scientific Method, Anti-Foundationalism, And Public Decision-Making, Kristin Shrader-Frechette

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

An examination of the legitimacy of attacks on lay assessments of environmental or other technological Risk. The case is made that rational policy requires an epistemology in which what we believe about Risk is bootstrapped onto how we should act concerning Risk.

Fundy Tidal Power Development : Preliminary Evaluation Of Its Environmental Consequences To The Resources Of The State Of Maine, Bigelow Laboratory For Ocean Sciences

Maine Collection

Fundy Tidal Power Development : Preliminary Evaluation of Its Environmental Consequences to the Resources of the State of Maine

A Report to the Maine State Planning Office by the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, April, 1984.

"Technical Report No. 35 - Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Maine - A Division of Northeastern Research Foundation, Inc."

Contents: Executive Summary / Introduction / Methods / Physical and Biological Consequences / Socio-Economic Consequences / Research Needs / Bibliography / Appendix I. Written Comments on Greenberg Model

Industrial Safety And Technologicalization: An Analysis Of The Management Of Industrial Safety Programs In Saudi Arabia, Abdulla Rashad Jastaniah

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

The problem of this research was to determine the present industrial safety measures in selected Saudi Arabian industries, and to determine the status of government activity and involvement in industrial safety.

The procedural methods that were incorporated in this research were:

1. An intensive review of the literature was conducted concerning the management principals and theories of industrial safety programs.
2. Two data collection instruments were designed. The questionnaire was designed to determine: (a) the status of industrial safety procedures, (b) the practices of management regarding safety, and (c) the extent of management acceptance of responsibility for industrial safety in accordance with …

Noise Pollution In The Industrial Arts Laboratory, James A. Sundell

Graduate Research Papers

Industrial arts instructors have always recognized the need for a pleasant and safe environment in their laboratories. Advancements in technology have increased noise pollution in this environment.

Sounds have a useful and important place in the laboratory; also, they can have adverse effects. The instructor can tell immediately if a machine is not performing correctly by the sound it emits, while the operation of the same machine can distort an important verbal communication. Excessive decibel levels may be generated at different times threatening the psychological and physiological well-being of teachers and students (Brown, 1979; Hicks, 1973; Swogger, 1973).

Reduction of …

The Machinery Crisis, W T. Brown

Journal of the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, Series 4

The machinery crisis - I believe we have come through a crisis in farming efficiency. To maintain his income, the farmer has had to reduce his costs of production, or increase production per man. He has done this by climbing to a new plateau of efficiency, and he expanded or got out; he has substituted capital for labour.

In many cases this means bigger, more powerful machinery. This is not a simple or easy move and there are many potential ways to mske the wrong decision.

Some Aspects Of Reliability Theory And Life Testing, Danny Laforrest Dunham

All Master's Theses

This paper explores the properties of the mean life of an item when an exponential density is assumed for the item's life length. Two different tests are discussed, one where the items are allowed to fail while on test without replacement, and the second test where the items are replaced as they fail. Finally the efficiency of the two tests is explored with respect to the number of items that are allowed to fail versus the length of the test.

Farm Safety, Department Of Agriculture, Western Australia

Journal of the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, Series 4

Careful investigation has been made into the causes of tractors overturning.

The most common types of accident are set out below, with advice on how to avoid them.

Australian Spark Arrester Tests : Test No. Spa-21 : Caterpillar D7 Turbocharger, W F. Baillie, G. H. Vasey

Journal of the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, Series 4

FORMAL tests on spark arresters are conducted by The Tractor Testing Committee* at the Testing Station, Werribee, on behalf of those Companies concerned with tractors, engines or spark arresters who wish to have these equipments tested.

The arrester is tested on the engine it is specially designed for (as in this instance), or if it is sold for use on any or several engines, it is tested on an engine of the highest power for which the spark arrester is intended.