Risk Analysis Commons^™

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

A Risk Based Framework For Evaluating Gated Spillway Operations, Greg Paxson, Marty Mccann Jr, Mark Landis

International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures

Gated spillways are often necessary to provide both operational flexibility and discharge capacity to pass large flood events. However, gated spillways present operational challenges to dam owners and operators, often necessitating development of a flood operations plan (FOP) that is used in tandem with the dam’s emergency action plan (EAP). Even a well-intentioned and robust FOP/EAP can require personnel to predict flooding, use judgment particular to the requirements of the plan, and react quickly. In addition, all of the equipment required to operate the gates need to function as designed and be operated in accordance with the FOP.

This paper …

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker …

Quantitative Risk Evaluation Of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces For Final Approaches At Airports, Amila Silva, Alexandre G. De Barros

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around airports. The standard dimensions of the most of those surfaces were estimated using the pilot’s experience at the time when they were included in the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated, while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes important to …

Prosense, Johnny Favazza Ii, Casey Glasgow, Matt Epperson

Computer Engineering

This project aims to gather advanced data sets from MEMS sensors and GPS and deliver it to the user, who can capitalize on the data. The once negligible half-degree difference of your board barreling down a wave can be recorded from a gyro and exploited for the perfect turn. The exact speed dreaded by longboarders where speed wobbles turn into a road rash can be analysed and consequently avoided. Ascertaining the summit of your flight using combined GPS sensors from the ski ramp allows for the correct timing of tricks. When it comes to pursuing excellence in professional sports, amateur …

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad …

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems throughout their life cycle. There is a growing literature with qualitative definitions of resilience and quantitative models for systems with one performance measure. This paper uses a quantitative resilience framework (the Framework for ERS) that includes system design options, reliability, threats, vulnerabilities, responses, and consequences assessed in multiple system performance measures. The framework assists in establishing a model for any system to evaluate resiliency. This paper applies this framework using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) to …

Influence Of Personality On Emotional Contagion Through Social Media, Theodore T. Jensen

Honors Scholar Theses

The rapid growth of computers and computing technologies in the recent past has led to dramatic changes in modern social interactions. Connectivity through the internet and social networking sites is a massive part of people's lives, with younger generations learning to interact more and more through these means. It is necessary to recognize the emotional influence of these forms of communication- their influence on mental health will grow as they become a larger part of the social fabric. Facebook and other social media have been shown to be a form of emotional contagion; emotional states can be transferred from one …

Safety Management Analysis For Construction Industry: Statistical Process Control (Spc) Approach, Zhenpeng Liu

Morehead State Theses and Dissertations

A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the College of Business and Technology Morehead State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science by Zhenpeng Liu on April 26, 2016.

Risk Management In A Vuca Environment: Some Key Considerations, Foo S.L., Nam Sang Cheng, Nam Sang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Whatis VUCA? Why is it relevant to accountants, the C-suites and Board ofDirectors? Companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies and the rewards are risks. Critical concepts in thisprocess are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), a trendymanagerial acronym that conflates the reality of the business environment and the challenges ofrisk management.

Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER® Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER® model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the …

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs …

System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As is well known, the integration of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) or “drones” into the National Airspace System (NAS) has captured significant industry, academic, regulatory and media attention. For sUAS that typically fly low and slow, the possibility of a mid-air collision with a nearby general aviation aircraft needs to be studied from a system safety perspective to identify possible hazards and to assess mitigations. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a first-generation socio-technical model that uses a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology to integrate possible hazards to assess a non-linear safety risk metric. Using inductive logic, the …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

Late Morning Concurrent Sessions: Innovations In Aviation Technologies: Presentation: Relative Material Loss: A Methodology For Assessing Island Airport Steel Marine Bulkheads, Robert Ernsting, Constantine M. Koursaris

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

A July 2015 report from the Airports Council International – North America (ACI-NA) states “U.S. airports are long overdue for [a] major structural improvement projects. Most U.S. airports are aging, … and because of budgetary restrictions, they’re not aging well.”(Garcia and Clampet, 2015). The average US age is 40 years old with the youngest (Denver International) recently turning 20 years old. As airports continue to age, airport commissioners will struggle to find creative ways to either fund airport replacements or extend the service life of existing airport facilities (commonly referred to as service life extension projects or SLEP). Due to …

A Decision Model For Recommending Which Building Occupants Should Move Where During Fire Emergencies, Norman E. Groner

Publications and Research

This paper describes a decision model for managing the movement of building occupants during fire emergencies. Currently available guidance from standard practice, egress modeling, codes and the re-search literature, is too general to provide much help to persons charged with the responsibility of where groups of occupants should be located given a fire scenario. The occupant movement decision model described in the paper uses three basic yes–no questions to divide building occupants into groups during a fire emergency. For any particular group, the decision model recommends one of two basic actions:(1) people remain where they are already located; or, (2) …

Temporal Logic For System Safety Properties And Hazard Monitoring, Francesca Favaro, J. Saleh

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Using Mavt To Incorporate Public Perception When Choosing A Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Stephen Clement

Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is …

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Publications

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.

Probability-Based Hurricane Resilience Evaluation And Retrofitting For Residential Community, Yadong Dong

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Wood residential construction is vulnerable to hurricanes, as evident in recent hurricane events. Many studies indicated that the changing climate may very likely alter hurricane patterns, which could lead to more severe hurricane damage to the wood residential construction that accounts for 90% of the residence in the USA. On the other hand, deterioration of material increases the chance of structural failure by reducing the structural capacity (e.g., corrosion of fasteners in roof panel could significantly reduce the withdrawal capacity of the roofing structure during hurricane events).

Currently, most hurricane damage estimations only focus on direct loss (e.g., structural loss). …

Life-Cycle Analysis Of A Cement Manufacturing Plant Co-Firing Hazardous Waste In The Usa, Stephen P. Holt

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this work was to determine the overall environmental impacts associated with the co-firing hazardous waste by burning in a cement kiln to replace the use of coal in the cement manufacturing process. This environmental assessment was conducted using LCA methodology. Understanding the environmental impacts associated with burning hazardous waste in a cement factory could help shape national environmental policy, regulations and the need for site specific human health risk assessments in the environmental regulatory permitting processes. Accordingly, the primary objective of this study was to evaluate the environmental impacts from the hazardous waste burning for energy recovery …

Safety Implications Of Transit Operator Schedule Policies, Hung Hoang

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the bus transit community, driving long hours or spending extra hours at work are very common. This is true in the State of Florida, where bus transit is a very popular mode of public transportation. Although the correlation between a bus driver’s schedule and a crash event appears intuitive, further study regarding the effects of operator driving schedules on accident rates is needed to evaluate safety measures. The focus of this research is on the examination of bus driver schedules, and the effects of scheduling on accident rates in Florida. Data were collected at five bus transit agencies including …

Evaluating Launch Vehicle / Reentry Vehicle (Lv/Rv) Separation Concepts, Zheng Tao, Ganghuai Wang, Tudor Masek, Thomas J. St. Clair

Space Traffic Management Conference

Launch Vehicle/Reentry Vehicle (LV/RV) operations are expected to increase across the National Airspace System (NAS) as their reliability and availability improve. LV/RV designs and the industry landscape have vastly changed since the 1960’s, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) methods for handling these operations need to evolve to support the expected growth. Currently, large amounts of airspace are segregated for every LV/RV operation. This increases costs for NAS users and may limit LV/RV opportunities. The FAA’s NextGen office recently proposed two more efficient separation concepts for LV/RV operations called Space Transition Corridors, and Four-Dimensional Trajectory Deconfliction. Prior safety research for …

A Method Of Mapping Sinkhole Susceptibility Using A Geographic Information System: A Case Study For Interstates In The Karst Counties Of Virginia, Alexandra L. Todd, Lindsay Ivey-Burden

Sinkhole Conference 2015

Karst terrain is landscape underlain by limestone that has been chemically dissolved by acidic groundwater, producing subsurface voids that pose risks for sinkholes if the overlaying soils can no longer support their own weight and collapse. The western counties of Virginia are heavy in karst due to their natural, geographic boundary of the western Ridge Province and the eastern Blue Ridge Mountain Range. As a result, the Commonwealth of Virginia Hazard Mitigation Plan recommends that the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) develop a method to determine the roadways and regions most susceptible to experiencing sinkholes, in an effort to reduce …

A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross

Yale Day of Data

Post-market surveillance is a collection of processes and activities used by product manufacturers and regulators, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety and effectiveness of medical devices once they are available for use “on the market”. These activities are designed to generate information to identify poorly performing devices and other safety problems, accurately characterize real-world device performance and clinical outcomes, and facilitate the development of new devices, or new uses for existing devices. Typically, a device is monitored by comparing adverse events in the exposed population to a matched unexposed population. This research considers …

Research On Prevention Of Ship-Induced Pollution To Drinking Water Source In The Yangtze Estuary Of Shanghai Sector, Detong Zhu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

A Study On Navigation Safety On Putou Branch Channel Extension Project For Meizhou Bay, Kui Zhao

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Risk Assessment On Carriage Of Maritime Dangerous Goods In Packaged Form By Ship, Sifang Zeng

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Safety Evaluation Of Navigation Environment In Yangzhou Section Of The Yangtze River, Wei Xu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.