Risk Analysis Commons^™

Probabilistic Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment For The Enguri Dam (Jivari, Georgia), Maria Diletta Acciaro

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The Enguri Dam forms a reservoir in a seismically active area in the foothills of the Caucasus Mountain range near Jvari, Georgia. The slopes are steep, highly fractured, and weathered, which make them at risk to failure during or following extreme rainfall events. Hydroelectricity produced by the water retained by the 271-m dam provides almost half of the electricity for the country. The reservoir perimeter is more than 40 km and the surrounding slopes span an area of more than 30 km2. The size of the area and paucity of slope data have made slope-failure hazard assessment of the broader …

Environmental Risk, Resource And Production, Nancye Gannaway

Farm Systems and Economics published reports

Plan Prepare Prosper - workshop

Aims

• To identify and plan for projected changes in weather patterns and in the physical resources that underpin the productivity of the farm enterprise.
• To develop initiatives to manage observed and likely threats from the environment to farm enterprises.
• To support the achievement of long-term economic viability of land under production

Today's content will help develop risk management strategies for agricultural production systems.

Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak

Faculty Publications

This article examines how cost growth factors (CGF) change over a program’s acquisition life cycle for 36 Department of Defense aircraft programs. Starting from Milestone B, the authors examine CGFs at five gateways: Critical Design Review, First Flight (FF), the end of Developmental Test and Evaluation (DT&E), Initial Operational Capability, and Full Operational Capability. Each CGF is assigned a color rating based upon the program’s cost growth: Green (low), Amber (moderate), or Red (high). Significant findings include dependencies among similar CGF color ratings and cost growth occurring primarily between FF and the end of DT&E during a program’s life cycle.

Task Complexity, And Operators’ Capabilities As Predictor Of Human Error: Modeling Framework And An Example Of Application, Maria Chiara Leva, Alberto Caimo, Rebecca Duane, Micaela Demichela, Lorenzo Comberti

Conference Papers

This paper presents the initial framework adopted to assess human error in assembly tasks at a large manufacturing company in Ireland. The model to characterize and predict human error presented in this paper is linked conceptually to the model introduced by Rasch (1980), where the probability of a specified outcome is modelled as a logistic function of the difference between the person capacity and item difficulty. The model needs to be modified to take into account an outcome that is not dichotomous and feed into the interaction between two macro factors: (a) Task complexity: that sum-marises all factors contributing to …

Ransomware Behavioural Analysis On Windows Platforms, Nikolai Hampton, Zubair A. Baig, Sherali Zeadally

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Ransomware infections have grown exponentially during the recent past to cause major disruption in operations across a range of industries including the government. Through this research, we present an analysis of 14 strains of ransomware that infect Windows platforms, and we do a comparison of Windows Application Programming Interface (API) calls made through ransomware processes with baselines of normal operating system behaviour. The study identifies and reports salient features of ransomware as referred through the frequencies of API calls

Handling Of Syringe Sharps In A Non-Incineration Health Care Waste Disposal, Tito Mwinuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

An attempt has been made by the R&D team of the University of Dar es Salaam to design and manufacture two needle cutter prototypes, a manually operated and an automatic needle cutter to be used in rural and urban areas, respectively. This is part of the UNDP and WHO efforts aimed at promoting the non-burn medical waste disposal technologies in developing countries such as Argentina, India, Latvia, Lebanon, Philippines, Senegal, Tanzania and Vietnam. The project also involves designing and manufacturing of the autoclaves for sterilizing of needle cutters and other infectious medical waste. The use of needle cutters in hospitals …

Application Of Real Field Connected Vehicle Data For Aggressive Driving Identification On Horizontal Curves, Arash Jahangiri, Vincent Berardi, Sahar Ghanipoor Machiani

Psychology Faculty Articles and Research

The emerging technology of connected vehicles generates a vast amount of data that could be used to enhance roadway safety. In this paper, we focused on safety applications of a real field connected vehicle data on a horizontal curve. The database contains connected vehicle data that were collected on public roads in Ann Arbor, Michigan with instrumented vehicles. Horizontal curve negotiations are associated with a great number of accidents, which are mainly attributed to driving errors. Aggressive/risky driving is a contributing factor to the high rate of crashes on horizontal curves. Using basic safety message data in connected vehicle data …

Reliability-Based Designs Procedure Of Earth Retaining Walls In Geotechnical Engineering, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio, Julio E. Canon

Articles

The design and construction of foundations, retaining structures and slopes are usually based on deterministic formulations that do not allow the distinction between the natural variability and the inherent dispersion in the geotechnical parameters. Due to the inherent variability of the soil properties, there is a growing trend to implement reliability-based designs in geotechnical engineering to reduce design uncertainties by probabilistic methods. The reliability designs require the definition of the probability density functions of the geotechnical properties, as well as knowledge of the spatial variability of soils. This paper identifies the procedures, type of soil investigations, simulations and the most …

Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear of …

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …

High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris

School of Integrated Sciences - Faculty Scholarship

The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable. Intense …

Design And Risk Assessment Of Liftoff Water Rocket System For K-12 Stem Education And Outreach, Alex Christley, Heather Rachford

Von Braun Symposium Student Posters

No abstract provided.

Quantitative Analysis Of Regenerative Energy In Electric Rail Traction Systems, Mahmoud Saleh, Oindrilla Dutta, Yusef Esa, Ahmed Mohamed

Publications and Research

This paper aims at determining the influential factors affecting regenerative braking energy in DC rail transit systems. This has been achieved by quantitatively evaluating the dependence of regenerative energy on various parameters, such as vehicle dynamics, train scheduling, ground inclination and efficiency of the electrical devices. The recuperated power and energy have been presented by a mathematical model, comprising of a set of empirical forms, which allows for thorough analysis. A detailed simulation model of a typical DC-traction system has been developed to validate the developed empirical forms. The results verified the validity of the proposed mathematical model, and demonstrated …

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …

Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju

Faculty Publications

Autonomous Vehicle technology is quickly expanding its market and has found in Silicon Valley, California, a strong foothold for preliminary testing on public roads. In an effort to promote safety and transparency to consumers, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has mandated that reports of accidents involving autonomous vehicles be drafted and made available to the public. The present work shows an in-depth analysis of the accident reports filed by different manufacturers that are testing autonomous vehicles in California (testing data from September 2014 to March 2017). The data provides important information on autonomous vehicles accidents’ dynamics, related to the …

A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R …

An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.

Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo

Bullion

The National lnsurance Commission (NAICOM) is the statutory Regulatory body of insurance business created to ensure the effective administration, supervision and regulation of insurance business and regulate transactions between insurers and reinsurers within and outside Nigeria. FSS 2020 Insurance Sector, in collaboration with NAICOM aims to deepen the insurance market; ensure lnsurance credibility and protect policy holders; Embed governance and risk management framework for the lnsurance Companies; Enhance access to finance (financial inclusion) with business development support and new products; and risk-based capitalization of lnsurance Companies.

Study On The Safety Analysis Of Navigation Environment In Caofeidian Port, Wancheng Yue

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Risk Assessment Of Ship Navigation In Bridge Areas, Miao Yu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Research On The Risk Assessment Of Typhoon Preventing For Ships In Wenzhou Waters, Kun Yang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Research On Optimal Allocation Of Oil Spill Contingency Resources Base On Oil Spill Risk Assessment In Taizhou Port, Liangyu Wang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Study On Safety Escort Of Lng Carriers In Port Water Area, Lei Wang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

A Study On Vessel Deficiency Risk Assessment Based On Psc Inspection Data From Tokyo Mou, Jingfeng Wang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Research On Maritime Traffic Risk Prejudgment And Accident Causation Analysis Of Laotieshan Channel, Meng Lv

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

The Research Of Maritime Search And Rescue Personnel To Their Own Security And Risk Aversion, Lei Liu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Challenges And Risks For Chinese Shipowners In The Implementation Of Bwm Convention, Qianqian Li

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Study On Site Selection Of Ship Refuge In Zhanjiang Sea Area, Yu Fu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Development Of An Unmanned Aerial System For Radiation Mapping In Nuclear Facilities, Jackson Ball, Guangying Jiang, Robert Bean

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Efficiently planning a decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) operation at a nuclear facility requires detailed information on the conditions present. In the wake of a disaster, or just years of abandonment, a facility’s layout may have dramatically changed, making previous facility drawings unreliable, and radioactive particles may have been spread over the site, contaminating equipment and structures. Rather than tasking workers with mapping and characterizing the contamination, which can take days or weeks and poses a health and safety risk to the workers, mapping the site and locating contamination can be done remotely by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which would …

Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby

Adam Liska Papers

Many people tend to think that the outcome of any nuclear weapons use today will result in an escalatory situation with apocalyptic outcomes for the countries involved. Yet many factors are increasing the probability of the limited use of nuclear weapons (e.g., 1 to 20 warheads) in a range of conflict scenarios. Previous atmospheric model simulations of regional nuclear conflicts employing many relatively small bombs have been estimated to cause a global “nuclear autumn,” with great reductions in agricultural productivity, stratospheric ozone loss, and spread of hazardous radioactive fallout. The totality of these effects would result in widespread damage …