Automatic Identification Of Time Series Features For Rule-Based Forecasting,
2014
Marquette University
Automatic Identification Of Time Series Features For Rule-Based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Miles Kennedy
Monica Adya
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect six features that had previously been judgmentally identified in RBF: outliers, level shifts, change in basic trend, unstable recent trend, unusual last observation, and functional form. These heuristics rely on simple statistics such as first differences and regression estimates. In general, there was agreement between automated …
Government And Corporate Initiatives For Indian Women In It,
2014
Marquette University
Government And Corporate Initiatives For Indian Women In It, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
Education of women severely lags behind that of men in many developing nations. Fewer girls go to school, tend to drop out earlier than boys, do not receive the same level of education as their male counterparts, and often choose careers that are female predominant (Kelly, 1987). Without exception, India is quite representative of these gender-biased phenomena in education. However, the recent explosion of offshore outsourcing market in India has created a new recognition regarding the role of women in technological careers. The Indian IT sector has seen a trend contrary to what most western nations are experiencing—predominance of women …
How Effective Are Neural Networks At Forecasting And Prediction? A Review And Evaluation,
2014
Marquette University
How Effective Are Neural Networks At Forecasting And Prediction? A Review And Evaluation, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy
Monica Adya
Despite increasing applications of artificial neural networks (NNs) to fore- casting over the past decade, opinions regarding their contribution are mixed. Evaluating research in this area has been difficult, due to lack of clear criteria. We identified eleven guidelines that could be used in evaluating this literature. Using these, we examined applications of NNs to business forecasting and prediction. We located 48 studies done between 1988 and 1994. For each, we evaluated how effectively the proposed technique was compared with alternatives (effectiveness of validation) and how well the technique was implemented (effectiveness of implementation). We found that eleven of the …
Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Integrated Health Decision Support Systems: A Comprehensive Cancer Surveillance System Architecture,
2014
University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Integrated Health Decision Support Systems: A Comprehensive Cancer Surveillance System Architecture, Guisseppi Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya, Joseph Tan
Monica Adya
No abstract provided.
Bcas: A Web-Enabled And Gis-Based Decision Support System For The Diagnosis And Treatment Of Breast Cancer,
2014
University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Bcas: A Web-Enabled And Gis-Based Decision Support System For The Diagnosis And Treatment Of Breast Cancer, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya, Joseph K. Tan
Monica Adya
For decades, geographical variations in cancer rates have been observed but the precise determinants of such geographic differences in breast cancer development are unclear. Various statistical models have been proposed. Applications of these models, however, require that the data be assembled from a variety of sources, converted into the statistical models’ parameters and delivered effectively to researchers and policy makers. A web-enabled and GIS-based system can be developed to provide the needed functionality. This article overviews the conceptual web-enabled and GIS-based system (BCAS), illustrates the system’s use in diagnosing and treating breast cancer and examines the potential benefits and implications …
Factors Influencing Girls' Choice Of Information Technology Careers,
2014
Marquette University
Factors Influencing Girls' Choice Of Information Technology Careers, Monica Adya, Kate Kaiser
Monica Adya
Many western nations have experienced declining numbers of women in the information technology (IT) workforce (Trauth, Nielsen, & von Hellens, 2003). Between 1996 and 2002, women in the U.S. IT workforce declined from 41% to 34.9% (ITAA, 2003). This can hamper diversity and reduce the talent pool that can address needs of diverse end-users (Florida & Gates, 2002). Why do women choose IT careers or reject them? Multidisciplinary research on career genderization reveals gender imbalance (Trauth, Nielsen, & von Hellens, 2003). Career decisions against math, science, and technology (MST) are often made as early as age 11 without understanding long-term …
Pricing Sensitive Information In Electronic Commerce,
2014
University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Pricing Sensitive Information In Electronic Commerce, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
No abstract provided.
Rule Based Forecasting [Rbf] - Improving Efficacy Of Judgmental Forecasts Using Simplified Expert Rules,
2014
Marquette University
Rule Based Forecasting [Rbf] - Improving Efficacy Of Judgmental Forecasts Using Simplified Expert Rules, Monica Adya, Edward J. Lusk
Monica Adya
Rule-based Forecasting (RBF) has emerged to be an effective forecasting model compared to well-accepted benchmarks. However, the original RBF model, introduced in1992, incorporates 99 production rules and is, therefore, difficult to apply judgmentally. In this research study, we present a core rule-set from RBF that can be used to inform both judgmental forecasting practice and pedagogy. The simplified rule-set, called coreRBF, is validated by asking forecasters to judgmentally apply the rules to time series forecasting tasks. Results demonstrate that forecasting accuracy from judgmental use of coreRBF is not statistically different from that reported from similar applications of RBF. Further, we …
Corrections To Rule-Based Forecasting: Findings From A Replication,
2014
Marquette University
Corrections To Rule-Based Forecasting: Findings From A Replication, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that combines forecasts from simple extrapolation methods based on features of time series. In this study, we provide corrections to ten of the 99 rules contained in RBF. These corrections were identified during a replication of RBF. Empirical comparisons indicate that the corrections did not lead to a noticeable improvement in accuracy when tested against some of the original data. However, in light of the fact that several studies are extending the work on RBF, it is important to report on these corrections to RBF.
Managing The Psychological Contract For Improved Knowledge Sharing: The Role Of Human Resource Management,
2014
Marquette University
Managing The Psychological Contract For Improved Knowledge Sharing: The Role Of Human Resource Management, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
No abstract provided.
Cancer Surveillance Using Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Decision Support Systems,
2014
University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Cancer Surveillance Using Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Decision Support Systems, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
This article discusses how data warehousing, data mining, and decision support systems can reduce the national cancer burden or the oral complications of cancer therapies, especially as related to oral and pharyngeal cancers. An information system is presented that will deliver the necessary information technology to clinical, administrative, and policy researchers and analysts in an effective and efficient manner. The system will deliver the technology and knowledge that users need to readily: (1) organize relevant claims data, (2) detect cancer patterns in general and special populations, (3) formulate models that explain the patterns, and (4) evaluate the efficacy of specified …
Decomposition As A Complex-Skill Acquisition Strategy In Management Education: A Case Study In Business Forecasting,
2014
Marquette University
Decomposition As A Complex-Skill Acquisition Strategy In Management Education: A Case Study In Business Forecasting, Monica Adya, Edward Lusk, Moncef Balhadjali
Monica Adya
Graduate business education has been criticized for utilizing simplistic teaching strategies that compromise the presentation of real-world complex skills in the classroom. In this article, we propose that complex management functions can be effectively taught using decomposition strategies. We demonstrate the usefulness of this strategy in the domain of business forecasting by comparing the forecast accuracy of students instructed in decomposition (RBF-Instructed) with that of students not exposed to such instruction (Uninstructed), as well as with an expert system called Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF). RBF-Instructed students demonstrated significant improvements over Uninstructed students and were at least as …
Expert Systems For Forecasting,
2014
Case Western Reserve University
Expert Systems For Forecasting, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, J. Armstrong
Monica Adya
Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based on knowledge about methods and the problem domain. To acquire knowledge for an expert system, one should rely on a variety of sources, such as textbooks, research papers, interviews, surveys, and protocol analysis. Protocol analysis is especially useful if the area to be modeled is complex or if experts lack an awareness of their processes. Expert systems should be easy to use, incorporate the best available knowledge, and reveal the reasoning behind the recommendations they make. In forecasting, the most promising applications of expert systems …
Risky Decisions And Decision Support: Does Stress Make A Difference?,
2014
Loyola College in Maryland
Risky Decisions And Decision Support: Does Stress Make A Difference?, Gloria Phillips-Wren, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
Studies of human decision making have demonstrated that stress exacerbates risk taking. Since all decisions involve some element of risk, stress has critical impact on decision quality. Decisions are found to improve with stress up to an optimal threshold beyond which deterioration is observed. However, few studies have examined the psychological experiences underlying risk-taking behavior in conjunction with stress creators. In this paper we propose a research framework that integrates pre-conditions of stress (perceptions of high gain/loss, risk, complexity, and organizational pressure) with observed psychological experiences (time pressure, uncertainty, information overload, and dynamism) that potentially result in risky decision making. …
Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Domain Knowledge In Time Series Extrapolation,
2014
University of Pennsylvania
Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Domain Knowledge In Time Series Extrapolation, J. Armstrong, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy
Monica Adya
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional …
Workforce Diversity In The It Profession: Recognizing And Resolving The Shortage Of Women And Minority Employees,
2014
Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA
Workforce Diversity In The It Profession: Recognizing And Resolving The Shortage Of Women And Minority Employees, Mike Gallivan, Monica Adya, Manju Ahuja, Peter Hoonakker, Amy Woszczynski
Monica Adya
There is growing evidence of another impending skills shortage of IT professionals, with a significant contributor being the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the IT workforce (Office of Technology Policy, 1999; Freeman & Aspray, 1999). There are claims that if minorities and women were included in the IT workforce at rates close to their representation in the general population, this shortage could be ameliorated or resolved entirely. Moreover, achieving a greater representation of women and minority employees in the IT workforce may enhance creativity, performance and product markets (Panteli et al., 2001). Women and minorities are underrepresented in the …
Do Csr Expenditures Help Investors Foresee Future Earnings?,
2014
National Taiwan University
Do Csr Expenditures Help Investors Foresee Future Earnings?, Chuan-San Wang
Academic Conference on Good Business
The traditional view toward corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities is that they are a source of new information about future performance. We contradict this view by argument that expenditures on CSR activities are difficult to be properly disclosure, because they are not required to be reported in a separate account of financial statements. Consistent with this argument, our study documents a significant, positive association between CSR activities and expenses of selling, general and administrative for most of ratings from Kinder, Lydenburg, and Domini (KLD). Our results show that ratings for both positive indicators (strengths) and negative indicators (concerns) garble accounting …
Corporate Social Responsibility In Peru: Financial Performance Of Social Responsible Companies,
2014
Doshisha University
Corporate Social Responsibility In Peru: Financial Performance Of Social Responsible Companies, Gustavo Adolfo Tanaka
Academic Conference on Good Business
The purpose of this paper is twofold: it aims first at reviewing Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in Peruvian corporations. Second, it analyzes the Corporate Financial Performance (CFP) of Peruvian companies that are regarded as socially responsible and have been recognized for their efforts with CSR awards.
Does Audit Firm Tenure Enhance Firm Value? Closing The Expectation Gap Through Corporate Social Responsibility,
2014
Washington State University
Does Audit Firm Tenure Enhance Firm Value? Closing The Expectation Gap Through Corporate Social Responsibility, Li Z. Brooks
Academic Conference on Good Business
No abstract provided.
The Meaning And Reliability Of Economic Summit Undertakings: 1975-1989,
2014
Marquette University
The Meaning And Reliability Of Economic Summit Undertakings: 1975-1989, Joseph Daniels
Joseph P Daniels
No abstract provided.
