The 2011 Mena Revolutions: A Study In U.S. Energy (In)Security,
2012
Kent State University - Kent Campus
The 2011 Mena Revolutions: A Study In U.S. Energy (In)Security, Jessie Rumsey
Journal of Strategic Security
The recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have brought into stark relief the conflict between democratic values and strategic interests in U.S. foreign policy. Americans are known for commitment to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, yet the U.S. Government is frequently unwilling to step forward and openly express even rhetorical support for reform movements in foreign countries. In fact, initial American reluctance to support the recent "Arab Spring" uprisings serves as another example of what scholars argue is a general exception in the MENA to broader post-Cold War rising costs of maintaining autocracy. This …
The Strategic Implications Of China's Rare Earths Policy,
2012
Pepperdine University
The Strategic Implications Of China's Rare Earths Policy, Shane Bilsborough
Journal of Strategic Security
Drawing on literature in China studies, strategic theory, and expert interviews, this article analyzes the possibility of "rare earths" being leveraged by the People's Republic of China (PRC) in a crisis. The evidence suggests China's position in the rare earths market could constitute a significant security liability for the United States. It also seems that even if coercion fails to materialize, China's rare earths policies have the potential to intensify security dilemmas in Sino-American relations.
Arctic Energy Resources: Security And Environmental Implications,
2012
Defence Research and Development Canada
Arctic Energy Resources: Security And Environmental Implications, Peter Johnston
Journal of Strategic Security
In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the Arctic as a source for resources, as a potential zone for commercial shipping, and as a region that might experience conflict due to its strategic importance. With regards to energy resources, some studies suggest that the region contains upwards of 13 percent of global undiscovered oil, 30 percent of undiscovered gas, and multiples more of gas hydrates. The decreasing amount and duration of Arctic ice cover suggests that extraction of these resources will be increasingly commercially viable. Arctic and non-arctic states wish to benefit from the region's resources and the …
How Do Institutional Investors Trade When Firms Are Buying Back Shares?,
2012
Singapore Management University
How Do Institutional Investors Trade When Firms Are Buying Back Shares?, Sheng Huang, Zhe (Joe) Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study how institutional investors trade when firms buy back shares. We find that aggregate institutional ownership decline following share repurchase announcements. While some institutions sell shares passively to meet the firm demand for the market to clear, the overall institutional sell-off only accounts for 27% of shares bought back contemporaneously by firms. Many firms experience a net inflow of institutional investment. The decrease in institutional shareholding is greater in firms that experience weaker recent stock performance, display more information uncertainty, have higher institutional ownership, and conduct ill-timed/motivated repurchases that are not endorsed by institutions. And most of the sell-off …
Analysts' Industry Expertise,
2012
Washington University in St Louis
Analysts' Industry Expertise, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Industry expertise is an important aspect of sell-side research. We explore this aspect using a novel dataset of industry recommendations, which are often issued by strategy analysts. We study sell-side analysts' ability to rank industries relative to each other (across-industry expertise), and how it relates to analysts' ability to rank firms in a particular industry (within-industry expertise). We find that analysts express more optimism towards industries with higher levels of investment, past profitability, and past returns. Analysts exhibit across-industry expertise, as portfolios based on industry recommendations generate abnormal returns over both short and long horizons, beyond what would be explained …
Standing Order Operations In The Banking Industry,
2012
Regent University College, Ghana and University of Leicester, UK
Standing Order Operations In The Banking Industry, George E. Ekeha
George E Ekeha
Standing order operations by the bank is a system by which customers instruct the bank to make systematic payments on behalf of the customer to a third party. This arrangement must be control and managed by the customer. The customer must have the sole right to cancel this arrangement from his bank at any time he wishes. Unfortunately however, this is not the situation with some banks in Ghana. In this article we outline an experience of a customer of Ecobank regarding the operation of standing order.
Approximate Methods For Dynamic Portfolio Allocation Under Transaction Costs,
2012
The University of Western Ontario
Approximate Methods For Dynamic Portfolio Allocation Under Transaction Costs, Nabeel Butt
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
The thesis provides robust and efficient lattice based algorithms for solving dynamic portfolio allocation problems under transaction costs. The early part of the thesis concentrates upon developing a toolbox based on multinomial trees. The multinomial trees are shown to provide a reasonable approximation for most popular transaction cost models in the academic literature. The tool, once forged, is implemented in the powerful Mathematica based parallel computing environment. In the second part of the thesis we provide applications of our framework to real world problems. We show re-balancing portfolios is more valuable in an investment environment where the growth and volatility …
Do Analysts Understand The Valuation Implications Of Accounting Conservatism When Forecasting Target Prices?,
2012
Singapore Management University
Do Analysts Understand The Valuation Implications Of Accounting Conservatism When Forecasting Target Prices?, Jae Bum Kim, Alexander Nekrasov, Pervin Shroff, Andreas Simon
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Conservatism in earnings does not have a direct impact on the present value of future cash flows. This paper examines whether financial analysts correctly undo the effect of accounting conservatism incorporated in their own earnings forecasts in arriving at their target price forecasts. Based on prior findings, we consider alternative valuation models/heuristics that may be used by analysts to estimate target prices, e.g. the forward P/E and the PEG ratio. Our evidence suggests that analysts fail to fully undo the effect of accounting conservatism embedded in their forecasts of earnings and earnings growth when estimating their target price forecasts. More …
Do Analysts Understand The Valuation Implications Of Accounting Conservatism When Forecasting Target Prices?,
2012
Singapore Management University
Do Analysts Understand The Valuation Implications Of Accounting Conservatism When Forecasting Target Prices?, Jae Bum Kim, Alexander Nekrasov, Pervin K. Shroff, Andreas Simon
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Conservatism in earnings does not have a direct impact on the present value of future cash flows. This paper examines whether financial analysts correctly undo the effect of accounting conservatism incorporated in their own earnings forecasts in arriving at their target price forecasts. Based on prior findings, we consider alternative valuation models/heuristics that may be used by analysts to estimate target prices, e.g. the forward P/E and the PEG ratio. Our evidence suggests that analysts fail to fully undo the effect of accounting conservatism embedded in their forecasts of earnings and earnings growth when estimating their target price forecasts. More …
The Youth Bulge In Egypt: An Intersection Of Demographics, Security, And The Arab Spring,
2012
George Washington University
The Youth Bulge In Egypt: An Intersection Of Demographics, Security, And The Arab Spring, Daniel Lagraffe
Journal of Strategic Security
During the Arab Spring, Egyptians revolted against decades of poor governance and failed institutions. A wide range of grievances contributed to the eventual fall of the Mubarak regime, and most of these grievances were influenced by the demographic composition of the Egyptian population. This paper argues that the youth bulge in Egypt played a major role in the political transition and as such serves as the prime example of the intersection of demographics, security, and the Arab Spring.
Libya And Resolution 1973: The Law Of Politics,
2012
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Libya And Resolution 1973: The Law Of Politics, Monica Naime
Journal of Strategic Security
This paper analyzes recent developments in the intervention in Libya from the perspective of international relations and international law. The evidence suggests that states decided to intervene in Libya prior to sanction from the United Nations Security Council's Resolution 1973. The implication from the Libyan example is that politics was the impetus for the formulation and implementation of law, and not the other way around. Law "happens" in a context, and this context is shaped and bounded by international politics. This article is intended to invigorate further research into how international politics influences the creation, interpretation, and application of international …
Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns,
2012
Singapore Management University
Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger Loh, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The gambler's fallacy (Rabin, 2002) predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the same sign. When the most recent earnings surprise extends a streak, post-earnings announcement drift is strong and significant. In contrast, the drift is negligible following thetermination of a streak. Indeed, streaks explain about half of the post-earnings announcement drift in our sample. Our results are robust to more general definitions of trends than streaks and a battery of control variables including the magnitude ofearnings surprises and their autocorrelation. Overall, post-earnings announcement drift …
Cover & Front Matter,
2012
University of South Florida
The Impact Of The Arab Spring On Islamist Strategies,
2012
Syracuse University
The Impact Of The Arab Spring On Islamist Strategies, Ioana E. Matesan
Journal of Strategic Security
The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt created a contagion effect that inspired a series of uprisings by sending two signals: first, that even entrenched authoritarian regimes are vulnerable; and second, that nonviolent tactics can be effective in bringing about dramatic political changes. Subsequent developments, especially in Libya and Syria, convoluted these messages. Nonetheless, the political openings and the electoral victory of Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia continue to send the signal to many Islamist opposition groups that nonviolent means and participation in politics can be effective ways to produce political change. The chance of gaining power through electoral means can …
War Without Violence: Leveraging The Arab Spring To Win The War On Terrorism,
2012
Kansas State University
War Without Violence: Leveraging The Arab Spring To Win The War On Terrorism, Pat Proctor
Journal of Strategic Security
After a decade of war, the United States has failed to eradicate the threat of salafist jihadism. No matter how hard it tries, the United States cannot kill its way to victory in the war on terrorism. Sweeping changes across the Middle East—dubbed the "Arab Spring" by the media—have presented the West with a unique opportunity to pursue an alternative approach. Rather than engaging in war (politics through violence), the United States should engage in mass politics (war without violence) to compel the Arab world to reject the salafist jihadism idea. This article proposes a strategy calibrated to defeat international …
Learning From Libya, Acting In Syria,
2012
Hudson Institute
Learning From Libya, Acting In Syria, Caitlin A. Buckley
Journal of Strategic Security
The international community has reached an impasse. The violence committed by Syrian President Assad's government against opposition forces, who have been calling for democratic reform, regime change, and expanded rights, has necessitated a response from the international community. This article explores various ways the international community could respond to the crisis in Syria and the consequences of each approach. It compares the current calamity in Syria to the crisis in Libya and examines the international community's response to the violence perpetrated by Qaddafi's regime. It further analyzes reports, primarily from the UN and news sources, about the ongoing predicament in …
On-Line Portfolio Selection With Moving Average Reversion,
2012
Nanyang Technological University
On-Line Portfolio Selection With Moving Average Reversion, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to achieve good empirical performance on many real datasets, they often make the single-period mean reversion assumption, which is not always satisfied in some real datasets, leading to poor performance when the assumption does not hold. To overcome the limitation, this article proposes a multiple-period mean reversion, or so-called Moving Average Reversion (MAR), and a …
Momentum, Nonlinear Price Discovery And Asymmetric Spillover: Sovereign Credit Risk And Equity Markets Of Emerging Countries And,
2012
University of New Orleans
Momentum, Nonlinear Price Discovery And Asymmetric Spillover: Sovereign Credit Risk And Equity Markets Of Emerging Countries And, Geoffrey M. Ngene
University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations
In Chapter 1, I hypothesize that there is a differential response by agents to changes in sovereign credit or default risk in both quiet (low default risk) and turbulent markets (high default risk). These market conditions create two different states of the market (world) or regimes. Investors and policy makers respond differently in the two regimes but the response in the turbulent market condition is amplified as policy makers attempt to smoothen the fluctuations and uncertainty while investors rebalance their portfolios in an attempt to hedge against downside risk of wealth loss. In the two regimes, the short run and …
How Does The U.S. Stock Market Affect The Stocks Of Chinese State-Owned Companies?,
2012
Macalester College
How Does The U.S. Stock Market Affect The Stocks Of Chinese State-Owned Companies?, Yan Huang
Economics Honors Projects
This paper examines how the U.S. stock market affects the Chinese stock market, with a focus on Chinese state-owned companies, and compares the impacts on different industries and time periods. Results show that the U.S. stock market affects non-state-owned companies and state-owned companies with international business, but not state-owned companies without international business. The correlations between two markets are stronger in industries with lower percentages of state-owned companies. The impacts the U.S. stock market has on the Chinese stock market are increasing in time and in longer term.
Examining Market Response Following Hurricane Landfall: Does The U.S. Stock Market React Efficiently To Hurricanes?,
2012
Macalester College
Examining Market Response Following Hurricane Landfall: Does The U.S. Stock Market React Efficiently To Hurricanes?, Evan R. Hewitt
Economics Honors Projects
This paper examines market efficiency surrounding hurricanes in the immediate post-landfall period. Using hypotheses derived from distinctions between the efficient market hypothesis and the adaptive market hypothesis, it runs event studies on a sample of gulf-exposed property and casualty insurers for hurricanes that made landfall domestically in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Testing these post-landfall inefficiency measurements shows that a statistically significant window of inefficiency exists immediately following hurricane landfall. This confirms the prediction of the adaptive market hypothesis, and as a result shows that hurricanes create opportunities for abnormal risk-adjusted returns in this market.
