Risk Analysis Commons^™

A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff

Theses and Dissertations

A risk analysis methodology is necessary to manage the potential effects of oil refinery outages to the increasingly connected, interdependent critical infrastructure of the United States. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the lack of a critical infrastructure risk mitigation strategy was identified as an area for improvement. In both the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures occurred due to the interdependencies among infrastructures and their spatial relationships. Furthermore, the U.S. military is dependent on oil refining capability and a major shortage could potentially have devastating effects on mission accomplishment. As a result, a need has emerged to better …

Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain

Theses and Dissertations

Increased emphasis from the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) over the past few years to include statistical rigor in all testing has brought an augmented look at testing across the Department of Defense. This thesis examines the methodology currently used in live fire testing, particularly in the case of risk mitigation of the KC-46 dry-bay fire test program. The thesis addresses gaps within the methodology and analyzes the results of a statistically rigorous test. The research furthers work on modeling the characterization of ballistic impact flash by validating concurrent models and characterizing the errors prone to these models …

Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is extremely concerned with the safety of its people, especially those who are flying aircraft. Aircrew members flying combat missions are concerned with the chance that a fragment from an exploding threat device may penetrate into the airframe to possibly ignite a fire onboard the aircraft. One concern for vulnerability revolves around a flash that may occur when a projectile strikes and penetrates an aircraft's fuselage. When certain fired rounds strike the airframe, they break into fragments called spall. Spall and other fragmentation from an impact often gain enough thermal energy to oxidize the materials involved. This …

Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a flexible agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for supply chain risk management with significant enhancements to standard ABMS methods and supply chain risk modeling. Our framework starts with the use of software agents to gather and process input data for use in our simulation model. For our simulation model, we extend an existing mathematical framework for discrete event simulation (DES) to ABMS and then implement the concepts of variable resolution modeling from the DES domain to ABMS and provide further guidelines for aggregation and disaggregation of supply chain models. Existing supply chain risk management research focuses …

Fall Risk Assessments Based On Postural And Dynamic Stability Using Inertial Measurement Unit, Jian Liu, Xiaoyue Zhang, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Computer Sciences and Electrical Engineering Faculty Research

Objectives: Slip and fall accidents in the workplace are one of the top causes of work related fatalities and injuries. Previous studies have indicated that fall risk was related to postural and dynamic stability. However, the usage of this theoretical relationship was limited by laboratory based measuring instruments. The current study proposed a new method for stability assessment by use of inertial measurement units (IMUs).

Methods: Accelerations at different body parts were recorded by the IMUs. Postural and local dynamic stability was assessed from these measures and compared with that computed from the traditional method. Results: The results demonstrated: 1) …

Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim

Computer Sciences and Electrical Engineering Faculty Research

This study examined neighborhood safety as perceived by children (mean age=10 years) and their mothers, and its association with children's physical activity. For all eight safety items examined, children perceived their environment as less dangerous than mothers (p<0.05). None of the multiple regression models predicting children's physical activity by safety perceptions were significant (p>0.10). The maternal perception model explained the highest percentage of variance (R²=0.26), compared to the children's perception model (R²=0.22). Findings suggest that future studies should explore relations between self-reported and objectively measured safety barriers to Hispanic youth walking and cycling.

Identification And Implementation Of Patterns Towards A Model Of Environmental Sustainability, S. Jimmy Gandhi, Santiago Perez, Danial Rushton, Robert Cloutier, Ipek Bozkurt, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Much like the Quality Revolution did in the 1980's, corporate sustainability has the potential to drive significant changes in the processes and structure of various organizations in the coming decade. With a rapidly growing global population and an ever increasing global demand for resources (Population-Resource-Center, 2012). Sustainability has emerged as one of the primary challenges that organizations will have to deal with in the 21st century. An increasing realization among business executives that profitability by itself is not enough as a measure of success is also driving the increased adoption of sustainable practices in the corporate world (Lowitt and Grimsley, …

Tendering Procedures In Ppp: A Literature Review, Nunzia Carbonara, Louis Gunnigan, Roberta Pellegrino, Fabio Sciancalepore

Articles

Purpose – This paper aims at providing an overview about literature on tendering process in PPP, with particular regard to transportation PPP case.

Design/methodology/approach – The approach is based on the analysis of the pertinent publications on the theme.

Findings – Three main interest areas can be found in the literature: tendering procedures, evaluation methods and evaluation criteria. Social implications – Contract authorities have several tools in order to pre-qualify and select bidders and negotiate with them: they can choose the instruments which best fit to their market

Originality/value – The paper provides a complete overview on PPP tendering procedures …

Smart Growth In Dumb Places: Sustainability, Disaster, And The Future Of The American City, Lisa Grow Sun

BYU Law Review

One of the many lessons of the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan is that we cannot mitigate disaster risk through building codes and other structural solutions alone. Location is key to a community’s natural hazard vulnerability. Consequently, the most far-reaching and important question for disaster mitigation today is where we will channel the growth that will be needed to accommodate our expanding population. Yet, both environmental scholars and policymakers are promoting sustainability initiatives that will channel our country’s future growth into existing urban areas that are already extremely vulnerable to disaster. Indeed, many of these policies - and the …

Public Perception Of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Alice Tam

Aviation Technology Graduate Student Publications

This study explored public risk perception of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for civilian commercial operations, including cargo and passenger transportation. Civilian operators are considering the use of UAVs to increase safety while reducing labor costs, but negative perceptions may delay the advancement of these aircraft. To document perception of UAV or UAS aircraft for commercial operations, a questionnaire was distributed to adults (ages 18+) who use commercial air travel. The survey classified age group, gender, and UAV familiarity as demographic variables. This study assessed risk perception of UAVs and its correlation to the variables through statistical analysis to identify whether …

Optimal Investment Under Operational Flexibility, Risk Aversion, And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less …

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.

Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally

Theses and Dissertations

The rise in terrorism, corporate espionage, cyber attacks, and federal fiscal constraints play an important role in the federal construction process. The risks associated with these occurrences are studied to aid in the risk management of the military construction process. This paper presents the status of research into these areas to identify how methods, policies, applications, and information obtained from case studies can be used by stakeholders to manage risk in the United States Air Force construction process. The author reviewed research on risk associated with four essential components of the military construction process – Critical Infrastructure, Information Technology, Contracts, …

Slides: Risk Management Strategies Of The Upper Basin: Addressing Potential Shortages, Eric Kuhn

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District

15 slides

Slides: Thinking The Unthinkable, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Lawrence J. MacDonnell, University of Wyoming College of Law

7 slides

Filling The Gap: Commonsense Solutions For Meeting Front Range Water Needs: Executive Summary, Western Resource Advocates, Trout Unlimited, Colorado Environmental Coalition (U.S.)

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

8 pages.

"February 2011"

Presented by Drew Beckwith, Water Policy Manager, Western Resource Advocates, on June 10th at Clyde O. Martz Summer Conference 2011, Navigating the Future of the Colorado River Basin

Full report available at: http://www.westernresourceadvocates.org/gap

Materials For Presentation: The Disappearing Colorado River, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

7 pages.

"Western Economics Forum, Fall 2010"

Slides: Who Should Be At The Table, And What Should They Be Talking About?, Robert W. Adler

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Robert W. Adler, James I. Farr Chair in Law, University of Utah, S.J. Quinney College of Law

9 slides

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Slides: Long-Term Augmentation Of The Water Supply Of The Colorado River System, Les Lampe

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, Las Vegas, Nevada

29 slides