Risk Analysis Commons^™

Entropy Applications In Industrial Engineering, Saeed Zamiri Marvizadeh

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Entropy is a fundamental measure of information content which has been applied in a wide variety of fields. We present three applications of entropy in the industrial engineering field: dispatching of Automatic Guided Vehicles (AGV), ranking and selection of simulated systems based on the mean performance measure, and comparison between random variables based on cumulative probability distributions.

The first application proposes three entropy-based AGV dispatching algorithms. We contribute to the body of knowledge by considering the consequence of potential AGV moves on the load balance of the factory before AGVs are dispatched. Kullback-Leibler directed divergence is applied to measure the …

Simulation Analysis Of Container Terminal Capacity At Multi-Terminal Indonesia(Mit), Chandra Irawan

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén

NSBWO

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool …

Isolation And Characterisation Of Micro-Organisms With Industrial Importance From Sisal Bole Rots, Consolatha Mhaiki

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Investigation of microorganisms naturally acclimatized to Agave hybrid H 11648 (sisal bole rot) was conducted, with the aim of isolating and characterizing Aspergillus niger strains for industrial use. Microorganism were identified morphologically and then confirmation made by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results showed the existence of four major groups, listed in order of abundances as follows; Aspergilli (36.0±0.8) %, Penicillin (28.0±0.1) %, Yeast (15.0±1.6) %and Fusarium (10.0±0.12) %. The main groups of Aspergilli strains were A. nidulans, A. tamari and A. niger in ratios (3:2:2), respectively. Several endo-spore forming non-enteric gram (-) rods and coccid bacteria identified by API 20 …

Gas Leakage Detection System (Glds), Daudi Simbeye

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This paper mainly focuses on the detection of gas leakage and providing security when the user is around or away from home. The system is Short Message Service (SMS) based and uses wireless technology for providing security against gas leakage to users hence cost effective and more adaptable. The system comprises of sensors for detecting gas leak interfaced to microcontroller that will give an alert to user whenever there is a gas leakage, display warning information by using Liquid Crystal Display (LCD), sending SMS to the user for notification wherever he/she might be and turning off electric power with the …

Problems And Prospects Of Hydraulic Modelling For Environmental Flows Assessment Studies In East Africa, Preksedis Ndomba

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The objective of this paper is to document the problems and prospects of hydraulic modelling for Environmental Flows Assessment (EFA) studies based on selected case studies. Most of studies in East Africa use Holistic methodologies. An ideal data set for defining river hydraulics for most of these methods would be six data points of stage measurements over a good distribution of discharges, the stage of zero discharge and some flood-related data. Besides, in East African region EFA studies suffer from data scarcity (i.e., poorly gauged sites) and limited expertise and funding. The hydraulics studies conducted by the authors entailed desktop …

Reliability Analysis Of Social Networks, Kellie R. Schneider

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The primary focus of this dissertation is on the quantification of actor interaction and the dissemination of information through Social networks. Social networks have long been used to model the interactions between people in various Social and professional contexts. These networks allow for the explicit modeling of the complex interrelations between relevant individuals within an organization and the role they play in the decision making process. This dissertation considers Social networks represented as network flow models in which actors have the ability to provide some level of influence over other actors within the network. The models developed incorporate performance metrics …

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Capturing Creative Program Management Best Practices, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin

Faculty Publications

This research attempted to capture the creative aspects of government program management in three specific areas: efficiently navigating oversight, capturing the intent of regulations, and developing innovative risk management practices. Respected acquisition leaders with diverse backgrounds and experiences were interviewed with ranks ranging from 0-6 to 0-8 and GS-15 to SES. Several contractor interviews were conducted for specific purposes. The data were iteratively coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti. The results were categorized into four themes, each with three sub-elements. Differences between respondents with program director experience and those with rapid acquisition experience are discussed. A survey was then distributed to …

Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney

Theses and Dissertations

Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The study recommends coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determines if different CV ranges should be used based on platform type, and determines if CV decreases over the course of the program's acquisition lifecycle. The analysis found that the Air Force should enhance the CV review process to ensure …

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Adequate Ventilation: How Is It Defined And Does It Adequately Warn Consumers?, Christopher Blankenship

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

The purpose of this research was to clarify and define the term “adequate ventilation.” Upon looking at regulations, court cases, and other elements, it is clear that the term is inadequate to inform consumers and does not instruct consumers on how to achieve proper ventilation. To find out if consumers understand this, random persons were asked to define it. The answers were given a numerical value to show the knowledge trend. The outcome showed that most people do not understand how to achieve proper ventilation. Conclusion: Diagrams showing how to set up a room with ventilation and new instructions are …

Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Computer Sciences and Electrical Engineering Faculty Research

Slip-induced fall accidents have been recognized as a serious threat to the health of the elderly.The objective of the current study was to investigate the aging effect on the biomechanical reactions of both perturbed foot and unperturbed foot to the unexpected slips. Nineteen younger (mean age: 25.0 years old) and twenty-one older (mean age: 71.2 years old) adults were involved in a laboratory study,in which slippery surface was induced during walking without their awareness.The reactive responses of both slipping foot and unperturbed foot were quantified by optical motion capture system and force platforms.The results indicate a characteristic toe-touch strategy by …

Experimental Comparison Study Of The Response Of Polycarbonate And Laminated Glass Blast Resistant Glazing Systems To Blast Loading, Joshua Calnan

Theses and Dissertations--Mining Engineering

This thesis recounts the experimental study of the dynamic response of polycarbonate blast resistant glazing systems to explosive loading through the use of triaxial load cells, pressure sensors, and a laser displacement gauge. This instrumentation captured the response of the glazing systems to blast loading over three phases of testing. The first phase of testing characterizes the load distribution around the perimeter and the second phase examines the repeatability of the results. The final phase of testing pushes the samples to failure. The results are then compared to HazL, a commonly used blast resistant glazing system analysis software tool. The …

Experiments To Measure The Effects Of Timber Harvesting Equipment On Surface Lithic Scatters, Douglas J. Baughman

All Master's Theses

The importance of cultural resource preservation cannot be overstated; however local economies are at least as important. Due to conservative archaeological site protection practices in Region 5 of the United States Forest Service, the economy of Northeastern California is being adversely affected. In an attempt to help the Forest Service make more informed management decisions and improve the Northeastern California economy, I undertook experiments on the effects of timber harvesting on lithic scatters on Modoc National Forest. The experiments involved placement of 225 glass tiles (proxy lithics) in each of three plots subject to vehicle traffic and log dragging by …

A Study Of The Size Of Nuclear Fuel Carriers, The Most Required Ships For Safety : How Large Can Ship's Tonnage Be?, Azusa Fukasawa

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger

Theses and Dissertations

Collateral damage presents a significant risk during air drops and airstrikes, risking citizens' lives and property, straining the relationship between the United States Air Force and host nations. This dissertation presents a methodology to determine the optimal location for making supply airdrops in order to minimize collateral damage while maintaining a high likelihood of successful recovery. A series of non-linear optimization algorithms is presented along with their relative success in finding the optimal location in the airdrop problem. Additionally, we present a quick algorithm for accurately creating the Pareto frontier in the multi-objective airstrike problem. We demonstrate the effect of …

Research On Risk Management Of Ship Financial Leasing In Cimc Financial Leasing Company, Zhangcheng Shi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Risk Measurement Of Coal Freight Rates Based On Value-At-Risk, Zhenxing Pu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Application Of Shipping Freight Derivatives For Evading Risk In The Capesize Shipping Market, Jiayi Zheng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.