Systems Science Commons^™

Spatial Markov Equilibrium Models For Taxi Services: Driver Decision, Search Friction, And Locational Pricing, Yanchao Liu

Industrial and Systems Engineering Faculty Research Publications

This paper develops a modeling framework for stochastic multi-agent systems and applies it to equilibrium and pricing analysis in urban taxi markets. Travel demand is represented as a trip network and embedded in a Markov chain that captures both locational and in transit taxi states, with transition dynamics reflecting trip durations, search frictions, spatial competition, and drivers’ perceptions of long-term value. The framework features a parametric Markov chain with endogenous transition probabilities and a behavioral model in which agents’ decisions depend on anticipated long-term rewards. We establish equilibrium existence and examine two locational pricing schemes that align individual incentives with …

The Self-Aware Room: A Framework For Operational Self-Awareness In Evolvable Blended Environments, David B. Smith

Publications and Research

The Self-Aware Room (SAR) is a room-scale research environment developed within the larger Balanced Blended Space and Blended Reality Performance System research trajectory. Rather than treating the room as a conventional “smart” environment composed of fixed automation technologies, SAR approaches it as an evolvable blended environment made from physical, virtual, conceptual, sensory, computational, and performative relationships. Its defining feature is not any particular sensor, model, or output device, but the set of transformations through which physical activity becomes structured observation, bounded representation, interpreted state, governed decision, and mediated response.

This paper develops the conceptual and methodological foundations of SAR as …

Supply Chain Analysis: The Oregonator Autocatalytic Case Study, Abigail Butcher

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Understanding stability in complex supply chains remains a critical challenge due to nonlinear feedback, delayed responses, and sensitivity to parameter changes. This project presents a novel framework that applies bifurcation analysis to evaluate system stability, using the Oregonator autocatalytic chemical reaction model as an analog for supply chain dynamics. A parameter sweep of key model variables, particularly the stoichiometric factor f and the reaction rate constants k, is used to identify transitions between stable and oscillatory regimes. These transitions provide insight into how variations in feedback strength can drive instability in real-world systems. The framework will then be extended to …

Honeybee-Inspired Swarm Intelligence For Autonomous Adaptability Of Martian Infrastructure, Morgan Kendall

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Current research in autonomous space systems primarily relies on centralized control or swarm methods designed for fixed mission scenarios. These approaches lack the flexibility needed for long-duration Mars operations, where infrastructure must adapt to changing conditions, evolving mission goals, and limited human oversight. This creates a critical gap in developing autonomous systems capable of continuous self-organization. This gap is being addressed by developing a biologically inspired, adaptive Martian infrastructure using swarm intelligence. The scope includes key system domains such as power distribution, communication networks, and surface logistics. Agent-based modeling software will simulate infrastructure components as autonomous agents that evaluate local …

Designing Under Pressure: A Comparative Study Of Ai And Manual Interface Development In A Naval Weapon System Scenario, Tsimur Babakhanau, Noah Clark, Colby Keller, Mary Grace Sorenson, Zoe Tiede

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

This study implements a detailed naval scenario in which participants acted as operators on a Navy destroyer equipped with a Laser Weapon System (LaWS). Their task was to create a dashboard capable of stopping incoming suicide drone swarms while managing critical laser functions such as thermal constraints, threat prioritization, and adapting to attack dynamics. Poor management could leave the ship vulnerable. AI is increasingly integrated into design methods, fundamentally transforming the process of building user interfaces by compressing hours of work into minutes. Although AI design tools are becoming more common, little is known about how well beginners can use …

Graph-Based Machine Learning For Multivariate Time Series Prediction In Scientific Domains: Streamflow Forecasting And Solar Flare Prediction, Kishore Ragul Alagarsamy

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Machine learning methods applied to multivariate time series data have emerged as powerful tools across a range of scientific domains. This report examines two distinct application areas in which such methods yield actionable predictive insights: hydrological streamflow forecasting and solar flare prediction in space weather.

In the domain of streamflow forecasting, a Two-Graph Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (Two-Graph STGNN) was developed to predict river discharge across a 20-station network in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The architecture separates hydrological and meteorological feature streams into two complementary graph representations and fuses them through a learned attention mechanism. Systematic evaluation across 23 …

Emergency Risk Dispatch For Integrated Electricity-Heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters, Tongchui Liu, Lian Tan, Dongxuan Bao, Lanting Zeng, Pengfei Hou, Ronghua Ling

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The spatiotemporal randomness of typhoon movement paths leads to uncertain operational risks for integrated electricity-heat systems (IEHS), making it difficult to balance system risk controllability and dispatch economy. To tackle this problem, an emergency risk dispatch (ERD) method for IEHS under typhoon disasters is proposed. An ERD model for IEHS under typhoon disasters is established within the model predictive control framework. Based on the uncertainty of typhoon wind speed prediction, a moment-based ambiguity set for uncertain equipment component failures is constructed, and a distributionally robust chance-constrained ERD model is formulated. An approximation method based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WC-CVaR) …

Bi-Level Coordinated Scheduling And Optimization Of Power Systems Based On Stackelberg-Gmo, Yuanxing Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Taoyong Li, Linjuan Zhang, Jincheng Liu, Bin Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: , To balance the interests of the power grid and the demand side, and achieve coordinated improvements in system economic efficiency, environmental friendliness, and renewable energy accommodation capacity, this paper proposes a bi-level coordinated scheduling model based on the Stackelberg game and the GMO. A leader-follower game model incorporating carbon emission constraints and multi-scenario stochastic constraints for photovoltaic generation is constructed, with the grid operator as the leader and EVs/V2G and energy storage as the followers, resolving the core contradiction between global optimization and individual rationality. The spatio-temporal stochastic characteristics of EV travel, the cycle life of energy storage …

Energy Management Method For Integrated Energy Driven By Users’ Social Attributes, Yankai Zhu, Yujing Huang, Qinghua Wang, Xiaoning Zhang, Fang Fang, Yuguang Niu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To explore a new interaction mechanism between an energy service provider (ESP) and multiple users, this paper proposes a complex modeling and energy management method for integrated energy systems driven by users' social attributes. A multi-agent interaction framework comprising an ESP and user clusters is established. To maximize the ESP's operational benefit and minimize users' energy costs, a leader-follower game-based energy management model is established within a reinforcement learning framework, and a distributed collaborative solution algorithm combining Q-learning and quadratic programming is proposed. Simulation results show that, compared with the traditional integrated demand response method, consideration of users' social …

Missing-Data-Tolerant Diffusion-Based Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Method, Yingying Shi, Xiaochong Dong, Guobin Fu, Miaomiao Ma, Yanhe Li, Xuebin Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the issue of error accumulation in traditional "imputation-then-forecasting" approaches, a missing data tolerant diffusion framework (MDTDF) is proposed. An XGBoost regression model is employed to map numerical weather prediction data into deterministic power forecasts. The encoder in the denoising network extracts temporal features, which are fused with the deterministic forecasts and fed into the decoder through a cross-attention mechanism to guide the denoising process. A historical constraint mechanism is introduced to directly utilize incomplete historical data and dynamically correct the denoising result at each step through sample gradient updates and noise injection guided by historical information. The …

Optimal Scheduling Of Virtual Power Plants Considering Photothermal Power Stations And Hydrogen Energy Utilization, Yousong Chen, Ruofa Cheng, Yi Liu, Yi Zhang, Zhihao Zuo

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To enhance the operational stability and low-carbon performance of virtual power plants (VPPs) with high shares of renewable energy, a coordinated dispatch model integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) plants with power-to-gas (P2G) and carbon capture is developed. An optimal VPP scheduling strategy is proposed, combining a stepped carbon trading mechanism with a compensation coefficient and dynamic hydrogen blending. To address multi-source uncertainties in wind power, CSP power, and loads, an envelope boundary model is used for simulation. Information gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to provide customized solutions for decision-makers with different risk preferences. A bi-objective optimization model is …

Time-Step Relaxation Method For Simulation With Time-Sensitive Interactions, Zhaopeng Liu, Kaidi Jin, Xunyun Liu, Dongao Zhou, Xinhai Xu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In time-driven military simulation, time-step setting is a key technology for balancing operational efficiency and simulation accuracy. Based on the current research on time-step setting in military simulation, a trajectory spatiotemporal intersection calculation model is designed to address the performance bottleneck caused by the minimum time step, thus removing the constraints imposed on the minimum time step by interactions such as high-speed target detection and jamming. Experiments involving detection interaction scenarios are designed to verify the effectiveness of the model in preventing missed interactions and improving simulation efficiency.

A Review Of Spatial Indexing Technologies For Large-Scale Combat Simulation, Kaidi Jin, Xunyun Liu, Dongao Zhou, Yang Wang, Zhaopeng Liu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The real-time performance and scalability of large-scale combat simulations are constrained by performance bottlenecks in spatial queries caused by massive numbers of dynamic entities. Spatial indexing technology becomes the key to solving this problem by establishing an efficient mapping between locations and entities. This paper reviews spatial indexing technologies in large-scale combat simulations. Based on an analysis of the core requirements for index structures in combat simulations, various indexing technologies along three main lines are examined: static indexing, dynamic optimization, and distributed parallelism. The principles, evolution, and applicability boundaries of these technologies are also examined, and their query and …

A Method For Assessing The Contribution Degree Of An Aviation Delivery System And Identifying Key Equipment, Xiaofeng Liu, Chengze Jiang, Xingyu Chen, Deyin Jiang, Bolin Shang, Bifeng Song

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Based on the delivery efficiency and delivery quality, a general aviation delivery system effectiveness evaluation model was constructed, and a calculation method of system contribution degree based on efficiency was given. By combining the system calculation experiment and simulation experiment based on agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS), the design idea of the Monte Carlo simulation experiment for key equipment identification and equipment technology development trend analysis was sorted out, and the key equipment identification method based on ABMS and contribution evaluation was proposed. By taking the intercontinental long-range aviation delivery mission as an example, a variety of simulation experiments …

Fault-Tolerant Control Method For All-Type Actuator Faults Of Evtol Aircraft, Juan Wang, Guorui Li, Zhiyong Fan, Huijie Chen

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address all-type actuator faults, especially nonlinear distortion issues, in multi-rotor eVTOL aircraft, a novel fault-tolerant control method was proposed. A fault function was established at the rotor speed level, and a fault-tolerant control algorithm combining dynamic robust nonsingular fast integral terminal sliding mode with a high-order finite-time disturbance observer was designed to achieve fault-tolerant control through rotor redundancy allocation. The nonsingular fast integral terminal sliding mode algorithm was improved, and a dynamic system containing actuator faults and their derivatives was constructed via a dynamic surface to achieve system convergence within finite time, avoiding the singularity and chattering problems …

Learning Evolution Modeling Of Multi-Cycle Nested Cloud Manufacturing Service Ecosystem, Fang Li, Deyu Zhou, Gang Wang, Guangjun Liu, Qi Hu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the lack of comprehensive consideration of the individual adaptability changes of enterprises caused by the collaborative governance mechanism among multiple manufacturing units and the overall evolution trend of the system in existing learning evolution models, this proposed a learning evolution model of multi-cycle nested cloud manufacturing service ecosystem. At the micro level, the adaptive linkage decision-making among multiple manufacturing units within the enterprise was achieved in the individual layer through the nesting of planning-readiness-execution-assessment (PREA) loops and OODA loops; at the macro level, the closed-loop simulation of the individual layer, organizational layer, and social layer was …

Study On Transient Electric Field Of Insulated Rail Joints In High-Speed Railway Stations Based On Dissado-Hill Model, Junli Li, Youpeng Zhang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The transient electric field distribution of insulated rail joints in high-speed railway stations under lightning impulse voltages is critical to their normal operation. Under lightning impulse voltages, considering the relaxation polarization of the insulated rail joint material, a frequency-domain mathematical model of its transient electric field was established. Based on Dissado-Hill model, the measured frequency-domain dielectric spectra were fitted and analyzed to reveal the microstructural characteristics of insulated rail joints and the interaction characteristics between microscopic particles during the polarization process. The results indicate that the relative permittivity of insulated rail joints decreases with the increasing harmonic frequency of …

Intelligent Evaluation Method For Regional Air Superiority Based On Graph Convolutional Neural Network, Peng He, Yubo Tang, Jingde Liu, Yujia Tian

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the dual challenges of the lack of quantification standards and sparse air combat samples in the superiority evaluation of modern air combat, an intelligent evaluation method for regional air superiority based on a graph convolutional neural network was proposed. The spatial grid method was employed to encode the air situation of the entire battlefield airspace into a new data representation, namely the air superiority matrix. A novel air superiority quantification model was applied to quantify the air superiority label values of spatial grids, and four key operational capabilities closely related to air superiority contention were selected as …

Sensorless Control Of Pmsm Based On An Improved Super-Twisting Sliding-Mode Observer, Shiyu Chen, Xinmin Chen, Xionglong Hu, Heng Wang, Yepeng Han, Jiajie Chen

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the chattering in back electromotive force estimation and the gain mismatch across a wide speed range when using a conventional super-twisting sliding-mode observer in the sensorless control system of a permanent-magnet synchronous motor, this paper proposed an improved adaptive-gain super-twisting sliding-mode observer. A linear correction term was introduced into the super-twisting algorithm and integrated with a gain adaptation law based on speed feedback, enabling the system to achieve finite-time convergence and high-precision back electromotive force estimation over a wide speed range. A variable-gain adaptive complex-coefficient filter was constructed to effectively suppress the harmonic components in the observed …

Line Spectrum Enhancement Technology Based On Second-Order Vector Hydrophone, Zhengkai Wang, Yirong Yu, Qing Hu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the problem of limited detection of line spectrum signals in low signal-to-noise ratio underwater environments, a spatial-temporal cooperative line spectrum enhancement technology based on a two-dimensional second-order vector hydrophone was proposed. A receiving signal model of the two-dimensional second-order vector hydrophone was established to clarify the spatial characteristics of its output signals. For spatial signal processing, the signals from each channel of the vector hydrophone were fused to suppress noise, and a channel combination method with high spatial directivity gain was proposed to achieve spatial processing gain. For temporal signal processing, an adaptive line spectrum enhancer …