Systems Science Commons^™

Breaking The Build: Detecting Software Supply Chain Vulnerabilities In Ci/Cd Pipelines, Mercedes R. Wahl, Dr. Benjamin Yankson

Military Cyber Affairs

This study examines whether integrating structured DevSec- Ops security controls into CI/CD pipelines can reduce software supply chain risk by preventing vulnerable components from progressing through the software development lifecycle. Software supply chain attacks frequently originate from weaknesses or compromises within dependencies, build environments, and trusted development stages, making early detection essential. A controlled sandbox experiment compared two pipeline configurations: a baseline CI/CD pipeline with no automated security enforcement and a secure DevSecOps pipeline integrating automated vulnerability scanning, SBOM generation, and artifact integrity verification. A known vulnerable dependency, the Python requests package (version 2.19.0) associated with CVE-2018-18074, was intentionally introduced …

Mitigating Common Vulnerabilities And Exposures In Cobol-Based Critical Systems Using The Strangler-Fig Pattern, Lauren E. Caruso, Vincent J. Compeau, Assefaw H. Gebremedhin

Military Cyber Affairs

COBOL-based legacy systems continue to underpin critical infrastructure in banking and government sectors despite their age and associated cybersecurity risks. Originally developed through a Department of Defense–sponsored initiative to standardize business computing, COBOL remains widely used in mission-critical environments. However, these systems face increasing vulnerabilities due to outdated security architectures, workforce shortages, and rising maintenance costs. This paper examines cybersecurity and operational challenges associated with COBOL systems and evaluates the Strangler Fig pattern as a modernization strategy that enables incremental replacement while maintaining continuity. The findings highlight implications for financial institutions and public-sector organizations dependent on legacy infrastructure.

Hybrid Deep (Cnn-Bilstm) Intrusion Detection For Defense And Mission-Critical Networks, Corey A Cheng, Jermaine Anim-Addo, Asma Jakir Hussain, Zion O Smith-Fox, Sanjay Goel, Yuksel Celik

Military Cyber Affairs

This article examines how hybrid deep learning can strengthen intrusion detection for military and defense networks. Using the CSE-CIC-IDS2018 dataset, the study evaluates a CNN-BiLSTM model designed to detect benign traffic and multiple attack categories, including DDoS, DoS, botnet, brute-force, web attack, and infiltration activity. The model achieved strong multi-class detection performance, with 0.9893 accuracy and 0.9979 ROC-AUC. The findings suggest that AI-supported intrusion detection can improve cyber defense operations, analyst triage, and protection of mission-critical networks.

Semantic Shields: Automating Critical Infrastructure Defense Via Nlp-Driven Ransomware Profiling, Henry Trowbridge, Ian Zalcberg, Ryan Schley, Carter Yagemann, Natasha Phan, Srikar Maduposu, Vimal Buck

Military Cyber Affairs

Ransomware poses a growing threat to critical infrastructure, where successful attacks can disrupt operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) with significant public safety consequences. However, attributing ransomware incidents to specific threat actors remains challenging due to ransomware-as-a-service ecosystems, actor rebranding, and the obfuscation of traditional indicators of compromise. This paper presents Semantic Shields, an NLP-driven attribution framework that leverages BERT-generated semantic embeddings and DBSCAN clustering to profile ransomware actors through the linguistic characteristics of ransom notes. Using a dataset of 295 ransom notes from 189 distinct threat groups, the framework achieved an 87.2% true positive clustering rate and …

Foreward, Todd Arnold

Military Cyber Affairs

No abstract provided.

Letter From The Director: Mastery In Practice, Joseph Schafer

Military Cyber Affairs

No abstract provided.

Degree Assortativity And Estimation Of Degree Distribution In A Contact Network Of People Who Inject Drugs, Peter Geissert

Dissertations and Theses

This dissertation analyzes data from a respondent driven sampling (RDS) study of people who inject drugs in Portland, OR.  The objective was to assess assumptions for the use of weighted estimators to estimate a population physical contact (syringe sharing) network degree distribution.

Visualization of degree distribution for social and physical networks, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of difference, and kernel tests of equivalence were used for comparison of distributions. Spearman's rho and GAM non-parametric regression models were used to test for association and assess non-monotonic relationship. The validity of Markov chain assumptions for RDS was assessed using a transition matrix, Markov chain graphs, …

Spatial Markov Equilibrium Models For Taxi Services: Driver Decision, Search Friction, And Locational Pricing, Yanchao Liu

Industrial and Systems Engineering Faculty Research Publications

This paper develops a modeling framework for stochastic multi-agent systems and applies it to equilibrium and pricing analysis in urban taxi markets. Travel demand is represented as a trip network and embedded in a Markov chain that captures both locational and in transit taxi states, with transition dynamics reflecting trip durations, search frictions, spatial competition, and drivers’ perceptions of long-term value. The framework features a parametric Markov chain with endogenous transition probabilities and a behavioral model in which agents’ decisions depend on anticipated long-term rewards. We establish equilibrium existence and examine two locational pricing schemes that align individual incentives with …

Spatial Reconstructability Analysis: Information-Theoretic Modeling Of Categorical Raster Data, David Percy

Dissertations and Theses

This research focuses on the application of Reconstructability Analysis (RA), an information-theoretic machine learning (ML) methodology, to categorical spatial data in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). RA was developed in the systems community with applications including classification, prediction, pattern recognition, and decision analysis. RA is implemented in OCCAM (Organizational Complexity Computation and Modeling), a software suite developed at Portland State University that analyzes discrete data in tabular form, with observations in rows and variables in columns. While RA has been successfully applied to a variety of domains, no systematic application to georeferenced raster data arranged in regular grids has been previously …

Structured And Interpretable Representations For Ensemble And Dynamical Systems, Yuan-Hung Kuan

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Precise and robust manipulation of large populations of structurally identical dynamical systems with heterogeneous dynamics, known as ensemble systems, is a central challenge in many emerging applications. These systems are often difficult to analyze and control because of the inherent nonlinearities, high dimensionality, heterogeneity, and incomplete knowledge of the underlying dynamics. To address these challenges, this thesis develops structured and interpretable representations for the analysis, control, and learning of nonlinear ensemble systems. Its central objective is to transform complex heterogeneous dynamics into representations that preserve essential structural and dynamical properties while enabling tractable computation and effective control design. First, the …

The Self-Aware Room: A Framework For Operational Self-Awareness In Evolvable Blended Environments, David B. Smith

Publications and Research

The Self-Aware Room (SAR) is a room-scale research environment developed within the larger Balanced Blended Space and Blended Reality Performance System research trajectory. Rather than treating the room as a conventional “smart” environment composed of fixed automation technologies, SAR approaches it as an evolvable blended environment made from physical, virtual, conceptual, sensory, computational, and performative relationships. Its defining feature is not any particular sensor, model, or output device, but the set of transformations through which physical activity becomes structured observation, bounded representation, interpreted state, governed decision, and mediated response.

This paper develops the conceptual and methodological foundations of SAR as …

Supply Chain Analysis: The Oregonator Autocatalytic Case Study, Abigail Butcher

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Understanding stability in complex supply chains remains a critical challenge due to nonlinear feedback, delayed responses, and sensitivity to parameter changes. This project presents a novel framework that applies bifurcation analysis to evaluate system stability, using the Oregonator autocatalytic chemical reaction model as an analog for supply chain dynamics. A parameter sweep of key model variables, particularly the stoichiometric factor f and the reaction rate constants k, is used to identify transitions between stable and oscillatory regimes. These transitions provide insight into how variations in feedback strength can drive instability in real-world systems. The framework will then be extended to …

Honeybee-Inspired Swarm Intelligence For Autonomous Adaptability Of Martian Infrastructure, Morgan Kendall

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Current research in autonomous space systems primarily relies on centralized control or swarm methods designed for fixed mission scenarios. These approaches lack the flexibility needed for long-duration Mars operations, where infrastructure must adapt to changing conditions, evolving mission goals, and limited human oversight. This creates a critical gap in developing autonomous systems capable of continuous self-organization. This gap is being addressed by developing a biologically inspired, adaptive Martian infrastructure using swarm intelligence. The scope includes key system domains such as power distribution, communication networks, and surface logistics. Agent-based modeling software will simulate infrastructure components as autonomous agents that evaluate local …

Designing Under Pressure: A Comparative Study Of Ai And Manual Interface Development In A Naval Weapon System Scenario, Tsimur Babakhanau, Noah Clark, Colby Keller, Mary Grace Sorenson, Zoe Tiede

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

This study implements a detailed naval scenario in which participants acted as operators on a Navy destroyer equipped with a Laser Weapon System (LaWS). Their task was to create a dashboard capable of stopping incoming suicide drone swarms while managing critical laser functions such as thermal constraints, threat prioritization, and adapting to attack dynamics. Poor management could leave the ship vulnerable. AI is increasingly integrated into design methods, fundamentally transforming the process of building user interfaces by compressing hours of work into minutes. Although AI design tools are becoming more common, little is known about how well beginners can use …

Functionality Risk Assessment And Risk-Based Management For Critical Infrastructure Systems, Anteneh Zewdu Deriba

Dissertations and Theses

Critical infrastructure systems such as transportation networks serve as the lifelines of modern society, supporting economic activity and ensuring access to critical services. Their disruption under extreme events can produce consequences extending far beyond physical damage to individual assets. In transportation networks for instance, failures of critical assets such as bridges and tunnels can reduce accessibility of communities, limit freight capabilities for commerce, and increase travel distance and travel time of road users. These consequences associated with the system functionality loss are tied not only to the physical vulnerability and failure of individual assets, but also to the system configuration …

Graph-Based Machine Learning For Multivariate Time Series Prediction In Scientific Domains: Streamflow Forecasting And Solar Flare Prediction, Kishore Ragul Alagarsamy

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Machine learning methods applied to multivariate time series data have emerged as powerful tools across a range of scientific domains. This report examines two distinct application areas in which such methods yield actionable predictive insights: hydrological streamflow forecasting and solar flare prediction in space weather.

In the domain of streamflow forecasting, a Two-Graph Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (Two-Graph STGNN) was developed to predict river discharge across a 20-station network in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The architecture separates hydrological and meteorological feature streams into two complementary graph representations and fuses them through a learned attention mechanism. Systematic evaluation across 23 …

Emergency Risk Dispatch For Integrated Electricity-Heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters, Tongchui Liu, Lian Tan, Dongxuan Bao, Lanting Zeng, Pengfei Hou, Ronghua Ling

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The spatiotemporal randomness of typhoon movement paths leads to uncertain operational risks for integrated electricity-heat systems (IEHS), making it difficult to balance system risk controllability and dispatch economy. To tackle this problem, an emergency risk dispatch (ERD) method for IEHS under typhoon disasters is proposed. An ERD model for IEHS under typhoon disasters is established within the model predictive control framework. Based on the uncertainty of typhoon wind speed prediction, a moment-based ambiguity set for uncertain equipment component failures is constructed, and a distributionally robust chance-constrained ERD model is formulated. An approximation method based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WC-CVaR) …

Bi-Level Coordinated Scheduling And Optimization Of Power Systems Based On Stackelberg-Gmo, Yuanxing Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Taoyong Li, Linjuan Zhang, Jincheng Liu, Bin Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: , To balance the interests of the power grid and the demand side, and achieve coordinated improvements in system economic efficiency, environmental friendliness, and renewable energy accommodation capacity, this paper proposes a bi-level coordinated scheduling model based on the Stackelberg game and the GMO. A leader-follower game model incorporating carbon emission constraints and multi-scenario stochastic constraints for photovoltaic generation is constructed, with the grid operator as the leader and EVs/V2G and energy storage as the followers, resolving the core contradiction between global optimization and individual rationality. The spatio-temporal stochastic characteristics of EV travel, the cycle life of energy storage …

Energy Management Method For Integrated Energy Driven By Users’ Social Attributes, Yankai Zhu, Yujing Huang, Qinghua Wang, Xiaoning Zhang, Fang Fang, Yuguang Niu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To explore a new interaction mechanism between an energy service provider (ESP) and multiple users, this paper proposes a complex modeling and energy management method for integrated energy systems driven by users' social attributes. A multi-agent interaction framework comprising an ESP and user clusters is established. To maximize the ESP's operational benefit and minimize users' energy costs, a leader-follower game-based energy management model is established within a reinforcement learning framework, and a distributed collaborative solution algorithm combining Q-learning and quadratic programming is proposed. Simulation results show that, compared with the traditional integrated demand response method, consideration of users' social …

Missing-Data-Tolerant Diffusion-Based Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Method, Yingying Shi, Xiaochong Dong, Guobin Fu, Miaomiao Ma, Yanhe Li, Xuebin Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the issue of error accumulation in traditional "imputation-then-forecasting" approaches, a missing data tolerant diffusion framework (MDTDF) is proposed. An XGBoost regression model is employed to map numerical weather prediction data into deterministic power forecasts. The encoder in the denoising network extracts temporal features, which are fused with the deterministic forecasts and fed into the decoder through a cross-attention mechanism to guide the denoising process. A historical constraint mechanism is introduced to directly utilize incomplete historical data and dynamically correct the denoising result at each step through sample gradient updates and noise injection guided by historical information. The …