Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Risk Analysis Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

816 Full-Text Articles 1,428 Authors 208,218 Downloads 80 Institutions

All Articles in Risk Analysis

Faceted Search

816 full-text articles. Page 32 of 35.

The Return Of Dr. Strangelove, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther 2012 University of Texas at Dallas

The Return Of Dr. Strangelove, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

With the prospect of sequestration looming, the United States may find itself increasingly rely ing on nuclear and cy ber deterrence as an affordable means of guaranteeing national sovereignty and preventing major conflict between the U.S. and potential adversaries in the Asia-Pacific. While earlier defense planning and acquisition were based on economic conditions that no longer ex ist, Congress’s options to balance the budget by cutting defense spending are politically palatable because far fewer American are “defense v oters” relative to “social welfare voters,” according to a number of recent public opinion surveys. The simple fact is China ...


Common Criteria Meets Realpolitik Trust, Alliances, And Potential Betrayal, Jan Kallberg 2012 University of Texas at Dallas

Common Criteria Meets Realpolitik Trust, Alliances, And Potential Betrayal, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Common Criteria for Information Technology Security Evaluation has the ambition to be a global standard for IT-security certification. The issued certifications are mutually recognized between the signatories of the Common Criteria Recognition Arrangement. The key element in any form of mutual relationships is trust. A question raised in this paper is how far trust can be maintained in Common Criteria when additional signatories enter with conflicting geopolitical interests to earlier signatories. Other issues raised are control over production, the lack of permanent organization in the Common Criteria, which leads to concerns of being able to oversee the actual compliance. As ...


Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay 2012 Old Dominion University

Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation proposes a methodology to manage and understand the risk of underwater terrorism to critical infrastructures utilizing the parameters of the risk equation. Current methods frequently rely on statistical methods, which suffer from a lack of appropriate historical data to produce distributions and do not integrate epistemic uncertainty. Other methods rely on locating subject matter experts who can provide judgment and then undertaking an associated validation of these judgments.

Using experimentation, data from unclassified successful, or near successful, underwater attacks are analyzed and instantiated as a network graph with the key characteristics of the risk of terrorism represented as ...


Integral-Balance Solution To The Stokes’ First Problem Of A Viscoelastic Generalized Second Grade Fluid, Jordan Hristov 2012 University of Chemical Technology and Metallurgy

Integral-Balance Solution To The Stokes’ First Problem Of A Viscoelastic Generalized Second Grade Fluid, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Integral balance solution employing entire domain approximation and the penetration dept concept to the Stokes’ first problem of a viscoelastic generalized second grade fluid has been developed. The solution has been performed by a parabolic profile with an unspecified exponent allowing optimization through minimization of the norm over the domain of the penetration depth. The closed form solution explicitly defines two dimensionless similarity variables and , responsible for the viscous and the elastic responses of the fluid to the step jump at the boundary. The solution was developed with three forms of the governing equation through its two dimensional forms (the ...


Thermal Impedance At The Interface Of Contacting Bodies: 1-D Example Solved By Semi-Derivatives, Jordan Hristov 2012 University of Chemical Technology and Metallurgy

Thermal Impedance At The Interface Of Contacting Bodies: 1-D Example Solved By Semi-Derivatives, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Simple 1-D semi-infinite heat conduction problems enable to demonstrate the potential of the fractional calculus in determination of transient thermal impedances of two bodies with different initial temperatures contacting at the interface ( ) at . The approach is purely analytic and uses only semi-derivatives (half-time) and semi-integrals in the Riemann-Liouville sense. The example solved clearly reveals that the fractional calculus is more effective in calculation the thermal resistances than the entire domain solutions


Towards Cyber Operations The New Role Of Academic Cyber Security Research And Education, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham 2012 University of Texas at Dallas

Towards Cyber Operations The New Role Of Academic Cyber Security Research And Education, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham

Jan Kallberg

Abstract – The shift towards cyber operations represents a shift not only for the defense establishments worldwide but also cyber security research and education. Traditionally cyber security research and education has been founded on information assurance, expressed in underlying subfields such as forensics, network security, and penetration testing. Cyber security research and education is connected to the homeland security agencies and defense through funding, mutual interest in the outcome of the research, and the potential job market for graduates. The future of cyber security is both defensive information assurance measures and active defense driven information operations that jointly and coordinately are ...


Emp And Geomagnetic Storm Protection Of Critical Infrastructure, George H. Baker III 2012 James Madison University

Emp And Geomagnetic Storm Protection Of Critical Infrastructure, George H. Baker Iii

George H Baker

EMP and solar storm wide geographic coverage and ubiquitous system effects beg the question of “Where to begin?” with protection efforts. Thus, in addressing these “wide area electromagnetic (EM) effects,” we must be clever in deciding where to invest limited resources. Based on simple risk analysis, the electric power and communication infrastructures emerge as the highest priority for EM protection. Programs focused on these highest risk infrastructures will go a long way in lessoning societal impact. Given the national scope of the effects, such programs must be coordinated at the national level but implemented at local level. Because wide-area EM ...


Dynamics Of Land Use/Land Cover Changes And Its Implication On Food Security In Anyigba, North Central, Nigeria, Tokula E. Arome, Sunday P. Ejaro (PhD) 2012 SelectedWorks

Dynamics Of Land Use/Land Cover Changes And Its Implication On Food Security In Anyigba, North Central, Nigeria, Tokula E. Arome, Sunday P. Ejaro (Phd)

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

This study assessed land use/land cover changes and its effect on Agricultural land in Anyigba. The objectives were to identify and delineate different land use / land cover categories, assess the rate of change that occurred and examine the impact of land use/land cover change on food security using satellite remote sensing data collected at three different years (1987 Land sat TM, 2001 Land Sat TM and 2011 Land Sat ETM). The study utilized GIS software such as Idrisi Andes academic and ArcGIS 9.3. The study area covers approximately 31.8km2, and four major land use/cover classes ...


Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill 2012 Old Dominion University

Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Risk for homeland security and homeland defense is often considered to be a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequence. But what is that function? And are we defining and measuring these terms consistently? Threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessments are conducted, often separately, and data from one assessment could be drastically different from that of another due to inconsistent definitions of terms and measurements, differing data collection methods, or varying data sources. It has also long been a challenge to integrate these three disparate assessments to establish an overall picture of risk to a given asset. Further, many agencies conduct these ...


A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff 2012 Air Force Institute of Technology

A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff

Theses and Dissertations

A risk analysis methodology is necessary to manage the potential effects of oil refinery outages to the increasingly connected, interdependent critical infrastructure of the United States. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the lack of a critical infrastructure risk mitigation strategy was identified as an area for improvement. In both the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures occurred due to the interdependencies among infrastructures and their spatial relationships. Furthermore, the U.S. military is dependent on oil refining capability and a major shortage could potentially have devastating effects on mission accomplishment. As a result, a need has ...


Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain 2012 Air Force Institute of Technology

Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain

Theses and Dissertations

Increased emphasis from the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) over the past few years to include statistical rigor in all testing has brought an augmented look at testing across the Department of Defense. This thesis examines the methodology currently used in live fire testing, particularly in the case of risk mitigation of the KC-46 dry-bay fire test program. The thesis addresses gaps within the methodology and analyzes the results of a statistically rigorous test. The research furthers work on modeling the characterization of ballistic impact flash by validating concurrent models and characterizing the errors prone to these ...


Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow 2012 Air Force Institute of Technology

Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is extremely concerned with the safety of its people, especially those who are flying aircraft. Aircrew members flying combat missions are concerned with the chance that a fragment from an exploding threat device may penetrate into the airframe to possibly ignite a fire onboard the aircraft. One concern for vulnerability revolves around a flash that may occur when a projectile strikes and penetrates an aircraft's fuselage. When certain fired rounds strike the airframe, they break into fragments called spall. Spall and other fragmentation from an impact often gain enough thermal energy to oxidize the materials involved ...


Designer Satellite Collisions From Covert Cyber War, Jan Kallberg 2012 University of Texas at Dallas

Designer Satellite Collisions From Covert Cyber War, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Outer space has enjoyed two decades of fairly peaceful development since the Cold War, but once again it is becoming more competitive and contested, with increased militarization. Therefore, it is important the United States maintain its space superiority to ensure it has the capabilities required by modern warfare for successful operations. Today is different from earlier periods of space development,1 because there is not a blatantly overt arms race in space,2 but instead a covert challenge to US interests in maintaining superiority, resilience, and capability. A finite number of states consider themselves geopolitical actors; however, as long as ...


Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper 2012 Air Force Institute of Technology

Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a flexible agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for supply chain risk management with significant enhancements to standard ABMS methods and supply chain risk modeling. Our framework starts with the use of software agents to gather and process input data for use in our simulation model. For our simulation model, we extend an existing mathematical framework for discrete event simulation (DES) to ABMS and then implement the concepts of variable resolution modeling from the DES domain to ABMS and provide further guidelines for aggregation and disaggregation of supply chain models. Existing supply chain risk management research focuses ...


Socio-Economic Effects Of Demolishing Squatter Settlements And Illegal Structures In Abuja Metropolis, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Ishaku IY Mallo PhD, Victor G. Obasanya 2012 SelectedWorks

Socio-Economic Effects Of Demolishing Squatter Settlements And Illegal Structures In Abuja Metropolis, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Ishaku Iy Mallo Phd, Victor G. Obasanya

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

Abuja the Federal Capital Territory and study area is located between latitudes 8o25’ and 9o25’ North of the Equator and longitudes 6o45’ and 7o45’ East of the Greenwich Meridian. The study was carried out in Abuja Phase 1, and it is aimed at highlighting various socioeconomic effects of demolition of illegal structures and informal or squatter settlements on the people within the study area. Data was collected through reconnaissance survey, personal interviews with respondents, and a well laid out questionnaire. The results indicate that the demolition exercise embarked upon by the authorities in the Federal Capital Territory was a response ...


Rainfall Variability And Crop Zones Classification For The Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Shaibu M. Hassan PhD 2012 SelectedWorks

Rainfall Variability And Crop Zones Classification For The Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Shaibu M. Hassan Phd

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

This study aims at analyzing agro-climatological parameters and establishing a link between some selected agro-climatological indices and sustainability of agricultural production in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Two sets of data, climatic and crop yield data were collected and subjected to various agro-climatological analyses. Agro-climatological analyses include the derivation of Onset, Cessation and Length of Rainy Season (LRS), Seasonality Index, Drought Index and Precipitation Periodicity Index. The statistical analyses include monthly and annual means, deviation from the mean, trend line. The result of moisture index in line with crops optimum moisture requirement was used to classify the Territory into agro-climatic ...


Threats Escalate: Corporate Information Technology Governance Under Fire, Lawrence J. Trautman 2012 Author, Educator, Entrepreneur & Professional Corporate Director

Threats Escalate: Corporate Information Technology Governance Under Fire, Lawrence J. Trautman

Lawrence J. Trautman Sr.

In a previous publication The Board’s Responsibility for Information Technology Governance, (with Kara Altenbaumer-Price) we examined: The IT Governance Institute’s Executive Summary and Framework for Control Objectives for Information and Related Technology 4.1 (COBIT®); reviewed the Weill and Ross Corporate and Key Asset Governance Framework; and observed “that in a survey of audit executives and board members, 58 percent believed that their corporate employees had little to no understanding of how to assess risk.” We further described the new SEC rules on risk management; Congressional action on cyber security; legal basis for director’s duties and responsibilities ...


Evaluating The Consequences Of An Inland Waterway Port Closure With A Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model, Cameron A. MacKenzie, Kash Barker, F. Hank Grant 2012 University of Oklahoma Norman Campus

Evaluating The Consequences Of An Inland Waterway Port Closure With A Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Kash Barker, F. Hank Grant

Cameron A. MacKenzie

As intermodal hubs connecting barge, train, and truck transportation modes, inland ports play an important role in U.S. and global commerce. Like coastal ports, inland ports face the risk of malevolent attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters. However, most port impact studies focus on the consequences of one of these disruptive events suddenly closing a coastal port. This paper examines the economic impact of suddenly closing an inland port by combining a simulation and a multiregional input-output model. The simulation models how companies may react if an inland waterway port suddenly closes, and the multiregional dynamic inoperability input-output model ...


Tendering Procedures In Ppp: A Literature Review, Nunzia Carbonara, Louis Gunnigan, Roberta Pellegrino, fabio Sciancalepore 2012 Polytechnic of Bari

Tendering Procedures In Ppp: A Literature Review, Nunzia Carbonara, Louis Gunnigan, Roberta Pellegrino, Fabio Sciancalepore

Articles

Purpose – This paper aims at providing an overview about literature on tendering process in PPP, with particular regard to transportation PPP case.

Design/methodology/approach – The approach is based on the analysis of the pertinent publications on the theme.

Findings – Three main interest areas can be found in the literature: tendering procedures, evaluation methods and evaluation criteria. Social implications – Contract authorities have several tools in order to pre-qualify and select bidders and negotiate with them: they can choose the instruments which best fit to their market

Originality/value – The paper provides a complete overview on PPP tendering procedures both used ...


Fall Risk Assessments Based On Postural And Dynamic Stability Using Inertial Measurement Unit, Jian Liu, Xiaoyue Zhang, Thurmon E. Lockhart 2012 Marshall University

Fall Risk Assessments Based On Postural And Dynamic Stability Using Inertial Measurement Unit, Jian Liu, Xiaoyue Zhang, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Computer Sciences and Electrical Engineering Faculty Research

Objectives: Slip and fall accidents in the workplace are one of the top causes of work related fatalities and injuries. Previous studies have indicated that fall risk was related to postural and dynamic stability. However, the usage of this theoretical relationship was limited by laboratory based measuring instruments. The current study proposed a new method for stability assessment by use of inertial measurement units (IMUs).

Methods: Accelerations at different body parts were recorded by the IMUs. Postural and local dynamic stability was assessed from these measures and compared with that computed from the traditional method. Results: The results demonstrated: 1 ...


Digital Commons powered by bepress