Meteorology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci June 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰮􏱨Streamflow

Drought Impacts to Livestock

Continued Cold Hampers Producers in North

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

On The Dynamics, Thermodynamics, And Forecast Model Evaluation Of Two Snow-Burst Events In Southern Alberta, Shawn M. Milrad, John R. Gyakum, Kelly Lombardo, Eyad H. Atallah

Publications

Two high-impact convective snowband events (‘‘snow bursts’’) that affected Calgary, Alberta, Canada, are examined to better understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of heavy snowbands not associated with lake effects or the cold conveyor belt of synoptic-scale cyclones. Such events are typically characterized by brief, but heavy, periods of snow; low visibilities; and substantial hazards to automobile and aviation interests. Previous literature on these events has been limited to a few case studies across North America, including near the leeside foothills of the U.S. Rockies. The large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics are investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North …

Sfa Weather Station-May 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Sfa Weather Station-May 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Hail Formation In Florida, Matthew Stanley

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

ABSTRACT

Hail poses a substantial threat to life and property in the state of Florida. These losses could be minimized through better understanding of the relationships between atmospheric variables that impact hail formation in Florida. Improving hail forecasting in Florida requires analyzing a number of meteorological parameters and synoptic data related to hail formation.

NOAA archive data was retrieved to create a database that was used to categorize text files of hail days. The text files were entered into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory website to create National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric …

Probability Distributions And Threshold Selection For Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Sarah Collins, Denis N. Botambekov, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical cyclone wind fields. Aspects of the wind speed probability data distribution, including maximumexpected probability and forecast skill, are assessed. Wind speed probability distributions are shown to be well approximated by a bounded power-law distribution when the feature size is smaller than the location error and tends toward a U-shaped distribution as the location error becomes small. Forecast skill (i.e., true and Heidke skill scores) is …

Overview Of The Integrated Pest Management (Ipm) Terrain And Activities In Furtherance Of The Walmart Initiative To Purchase Fresh Vegetables From Local Growers In Alabama, Franklin Quarcoo, Conrad Bonsi

Professional Agricultural Workers Journal

Tuskegee University has been providing various types of technical expertise to limited resource farmers who have been supplying Walmart with collard greens, watermelons and purple hull peas. A number of pests bedevil the cultivation of these crops; cost-effective management methods for these pests are needed. The objectives of this paper are to document the IPM activities associated with supplying produce to Walmart; summarize pest problems encountered on the afore-stated crops; recommend IPM methods suitable for limited resource farmers; and suggest other activities that ensure that farmers incur even less pest-related crop losses. Anthracnose was the major pest encountered on watermelons. …

An Analysis Of Public Perception And Response To Hurricane Sandy, Lindsay L. Rice

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane Sandy made landfall in Brigantine, New Jersey on October 29th, 2012. The storm impacted the coastal regions of New Jersey and New York, especially the heavily populated area of New York City. This research, which analyzes secondary data obtained from a telephone survey, investigates the public response of residents before, during and after Hurricane Sandy. The survey consisted of questions regarding what the residents expected concerning the threat of Hurricane Sandy, whether it matched what they experienced, where they got their information and how they made their decision to evacuate or not. The results from the survey were statistically …

Metr 12: Global Warming Course Redesign, Eugene Cordero

Innovative Teaching – Course Redesign Project Posters 2014

Poster summarizing course redesign activities for METR 12: Global Warming.

Metr 060 & 061: Introduction To Meteorology Course Redesign, Alison Bridger

Innovative Teaching – Course Redesign Project Posters 2014

Poster summarizing course redesign activities for METR 060 & 061: Introduction to Meteorology.

Sfa Weather Station-April 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook . 2

Drought climate recap 3

Drought impacts .

DroughtAtlas

Missouri River Basin pilot 9

NASA Horn of Africa project 10

U2U tools and social science . 12

Consulting for Turkey 14

Czech drought monitoring 14

A Climatological Study Of Drought In Southern Michigan, Rudy Bartels

Masters Theses

Drought has become a reoccurring phenomenon throughout many regions around the world. Significant drought conditions have beenobserved overthe pastfive decades in relation to economic, social, and agricultural impacts. In this study, Southern Michigan is investigated over the past 52 years from 1960-2012. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) will be calculated over a 6-month timescale from monthly precipitations. Three variables including 500-mb heights, surface pressure maps, and sea surface temperatures, will be correlated with the SPI using sliding correlations and Pearson's R correlation to determine any relations between these variables and precipitation variations. We will further investigate the five driest, wettest, …

Finite Element Modeling Of Macro Fiber Composite Actuators With Application To Wing De-Icing, Boutros Youssef Azizi

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Icing can have a profound impact on aircraft performance during inclement weather conditions. Aircraft icing primarily occurs on the leading edge of wings, tails and engines. The de-icing/anti-icing technologies currently in use are typically bulky, heavy, cover the entire airfoil surface and consume high energy. These drawbacks highlight the need for a de-icing technique that can overcome some or all of the aforementioned problems. Therefore, in this thesis, a proposed de-icing technique is studied in which lightweight Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) actuators are used to break the adhesive bond between the leading edge of a wing and an accumulated ice …

Synoptic Typing And Precursors Of Heavy Warm-Season Precipitation Events At Montreal, Québec, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum, Giselle Dookhie

Publications

A precipitation climatology is compiled for warm-season events at Montreal, Québec, Canada, using 6-h precipitation data. A total of 1663 events are recorded and partitioned into three intensity categories (heavy, moderate, and light), based on percentile ranges. Heavy (top 10%) precipitation events (n = 166) are partitioned into four types, using a unique manual synoptic typing based on the divergence of Q-vector components. Type A is related to cyclones and strong synoptic-scale quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent, with high-θe air being advected into the Montreal region from the south. Types B and C are dominated by frontogenesis (mesoscale QG forcing …

Validation Of The Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems, William B. Clements

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS), Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), 20km Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS20) and 4km Mesoscale Prediction System (MEPS4), were evaluated from April to October 2013 for 10 locations around the world to determine how accurately forecast probabilities for wind and precipitation thresholds and lightning occurrence match observed frequencies using Aerodrome Routine Meteorological Reports (METARs) and Aerodrome Special Meteorological Reports (SPECIs). Reliability diagrams were created for each forecast hour detailing the Brier skill score (BSS) to depict EPS performance compared to climatology for each site and score composition through reliability, resolution and uncertainty. …

Cloud-Scale Ice-Supersaturated Regions Spatially Correlate With High Water Vapor Heterogeneities, Minghui Diao, Mark Zondlo, Andrew Heymsfield, L. Avallone, M. Paige, Stuart Beaton, T. Campos, D. Rogers

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Cirrus clouds have large yet uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. Ice supersaturation (ISS) – where the relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is greater than 100% – is the prerequisite condition of ice nucleation. Here we use 1 Hz (~230 m) in situ, aircraft-based observations from 87° N to 67° S to analyze the spatial characteristics of ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs). The median length of 1-D horizontal ISSR segments is found to be very small (~1 km), which is 2 orders of magnitude smaller than previously reported. To understand the conditions of these small-scale ISSRs, we compare individual ISSRs with …

Sfa Weather Station-March 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Sfa Weather Station-February 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Local Meteorological Modeling To Support Flight Training Operations, Austin D. Wardall, Melanie A. Wetzel

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

Spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric conditions directly impact pilot safety and training objectives. Specific conditions of frequent concern to the ERAU Prescott flight training operations include boundary layer wind shear and turbulence. These conditions are most common during spring and summer months due to vertical wind shear, unstable air temperature profiles and thunderstorm-produced gust fronts. Case study comparisons of a high resolution meteorological forecasting model can demonstrate the value of operational modeling in support of a flight training program.

Sfa Weather Station-January 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Representation Of Ethiopian Wet Spells In Global And Nested Models, Mark Jury, Sen Chiao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Weather forecast and reanalysis models exhibit different performance in daily rainfall estimation over the Ethiopian highlands, 2000–2012, with ECMWF closer to observations than other models. Background is given to illustrate the Hadley circulation and easterly jets over Ethiopia, using sections on 37°E in July–August 2011. ECMWF reanalysis has a narrow band of rainfall >15 mm/day on 10°N, consistent with TRMM satellite estimates, associated with a steep gradient in meridional wind. MERRA and GFS models have a wider band of rainfall and weaker gradients in meridional winds. The contrasting background states influence a nested WRF model simulation of heavy rain in …

Prescribed Burning Of Logging Slash In The Boreal Forest Of Finland: Emissions And Effects On Meteorological Quantities And Soil Properties, A. Virkkula, J. Levula, T. Pohja, P. Aalto, P. Keronen, S. Schobesberger, Craig Clements, L. Pirjola, A. Kieloaho, L. Kulmala, H. Aaltonen, J. Patoskoski, J. Pumpanen, J. Rinne, T. Ruuskanen, M. Pihlatie, H. Mannien, V. Aaltonen, H. Junninen, T. Petaja, J. Backman, M. Dal Maso, T. Nieminen, T. Olsson, T. Grönholm, J. Aalto, T. Virtanen, M. Kajos, V. Kerminen, D. Shultz, J. Kukkonen, M. Sofiev, G. De Leeuw, J. Back, P. Hari, M. Kulmala

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

A prescribed fire experiment was conducted on 26 June 2009 in Hyytiälä, Finland, to study aerosol and trace gas emissions from prescribed fires of slash fuels and the effects of fire on soil properties in a controlled environment. A 0.8 ha forest near the SMEAR II measurement station (Station for Measuring Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations) was cut clear; some tree trunks, all tree tops and branches were left on the ground and burned. The amount of burned organic material was ~46.8 tons (i.e., ~60 tons ha−1). The flaming phase lasted 2 h 15 min, the smoldering phase 3 h. Measurements were conducted …

Investigating The Effect Of The ‘‘Land Between The Lakes’’ On Storm Patterns, Joshua D. Durkee, Ahmed M. Degu, Faisal Hossain, Rezaul Mahmood, Jesse Winchester, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The artificially created region around the ‘‘Land between the Lakes’’ (LBL) in Kentucky represents unique land use and land cover (LULC) heterogeneities. Over a distance of 100 km, the LULC comprises artificially created open water bodies (i.e., two parallel large run-on-river dams separated by the LBL), mountainous terrain, forest cover, and extensive agricultural land. Such heterogeneities increase (decrease) moisture supply and sensible heat, resulting in a differential air mass boundary that helps to initiate (inhibit) convection. Hence, the LBL can potentially modify precipitation formation. Historical anecdotes reveal a tendency for storms to dissipate or reintensify near the LBL. The specific …

A Comparison Of The Mm5 And The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Simulations For Land--Atmosphere Interactions Under Varying Soil Moisture, Astrid Suarez, Rezaul Mamood, Arturo I. Quintanar, Adriana Beltran-Prezekurat, Roger Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A comparison between two mesoscale models, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 4.4 coupled with the Land-Ecosystem--Atmosphere Feedback Model (LEAF2) and Penn State/NCAR’s Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with NOAH Land Surface Model, was conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) variables to anomalous initial volumetric soil moisture conditions. The experiments were conducted using three synoptic events: June 11, 17 and 22, 2006. For each event, one control run and six additional simulations were completed using RAMS and MM5. In each of the events, initial volumetric soil moisture was increased and decreased …

Winter Wind Chill Climatology For The High Plains Region, Holly B. Lussenden, Natalie A. Umphlett, Martha D. Shulski, Daniel Ebert

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

During the winter months in the High Plains region of the United States, wind chill temperatures can reach dangerous levels for humans and animals. Knowing the frequency in which extreme wind chill temperatures occur could help forecasters know when to issue wind chill advisories and also the general public understand just how rare, or common, certain wind chill temperatures are. A climatology spanning a 37-year period was created using data from 57 stations in and around the plains portion of the High Plains region from the Integrated Surface Hourly Database at National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These climatologies were completed …

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

Droughtscape, Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook & quarterly review . 2

Drought in 2013 review.

Quarterly impacts review . 5

Impacts in 2013 review.

Belmont Forum research0

USDM change maps 11

Central Asia drought planning

Kansas RC&D planning

Publication compares plans

Drought for planners webinar

Soil moisture networks

Kansas farm and ranch planning

$500 to develop leadership

Kids seek solutions

Plains symposium April 1-4

Distinguishing Molecular Characteristics Of Aerosol Water Soluble Organic Matter From The 2011 Trans-North Atlantic Us Geotraces Cruise, A. S. Wozniak, A. S. Willoughby, S. C. Gurganus, Patrick G. Hatcher

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The molecular characteristics of aerosol organic matter (OM) determines to a large extent its impacts on the atmospheric radiative budget and ecosystem function in terrestrial and aquatic environments, yet the OM molecular details of aerosols from different sources are not well established. Aerosol particulate samples with North American-influenced, North African-influenced, and marine (minimal recent continental influence) air mass back trajectories were collected as part of the 2011 trans-North Atlantic US GEOTRACES cruise and analyzed for their water soluble OM (WSOM) molecular characteristics using electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) separated the samples into …