Meteorology Commons^™

Comparing Surface Currents Near The Mouth Of Three Bays Along The U.S. East Coast: Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, And New York Bay, Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Monthly surface currents at 2 km resolution near the mouths of three U.S. east coast bays were obtained from high-frequency radars (Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar, CODAR) during 2012–2024. The currents near these bays, the Chesapeake Bay (CB), the Delaware Bay (DB) and the New York Bay (NB) were analyzed to infer similarity and differences, as well as potential common forcing from regional and basin-scale factors. The contribution to flow variability from local and remote forcing is evaluated by comparing surface currents with (a) river discharges into each bay, (b) with local and regional winds, and (c) with the North …

Coastal Sedimentary Records Of Extreme Events And Human Activity: Examples From Hurricanes And Microplastics, Nicholas T. Culligan

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Coastal regions are uniquely vulnerable to a myriad of natural and anthropogenically caused stresses such as hurricane strikes and chronic microplastic pollution. Both hurricanes and microplastics have major negative effects on global coastlines and are forecast to become more damaging in the future. However, current model trends are based on limited modern data and may not provide an accurate or comprehensive view of the future. Therefore, this dissertation investigates coastal stratigraphic records to determine long-term past trends of these presses and pulses so that researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers can use them to enact strategies to mitigate damages from worsening …

The Effect Of Advection On The Three Dimensional Distribution Of Turbulent Kinetic Energy And Its Generation In Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations, Joshua B. Wadler, David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Lynn K. Shay, Joseph B. Olsen, Joseph J. Cione

Publications

The distribution of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its budget terms is estimated in simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) of various intensities. Each simulated TC is subject to storm motion, wind shear, and oceanic coupling. Different storm intensities are achieved through different ocean profiles in the model initialization. For each oceanic profile, the atmospheric simulations are performed with and without TKE advection. In all simulations, the TKE is maximized at low levels (i.e., below 1 km) and ∼0.5 km radially inward of the azimuthal-mean radius of maximum wind speed at 1-km height. As in a previous study, the axisymmetric TKE decreases …

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Hydrometeorological Responses To Abrupt Land Surface Change Following Hurricane Michael, Shannon Alexis Nelson

LSU Master's Theses

While many of the destructive environmental conditions associated with tropical cyclones are well recognized, tropical cyclone-induced defoliation, a reduction in green leaves and mature vegetation, has been largely overlooked as a source of environmental stress following tropical cyclone passage. The land surface change associated with defoliation reduces evapotranspiration and shade, thus altering boundary layer moisture and energy fluxes that drive the local water cycle, for many months after tropical cyclone passage. Understanding the potential for any hydrometeorological impacts arising from such abrupt land surface change is important for guiding future post-hurricane preparedness and recovery planning in coastal communities.

This thesis …

Reveal Wind Loading Of Tornadoes And Hurricanes On Civil Structures Towards Hazard-Resistant Design, Ryan Honerkamp

Doctoral Dissertations

"Extreme winds impacting civil structures lead to death and destruction in all regions of the world. Specifically, tornadoes and hurricanes impact communities with severe devastation. On average, 1200 tornadoes occur in the United States every year. Tornadoes occur predominantly in the Central and Southeastern United States, accounting for an annual $1 billion in economic losses, 1500 injuries, and 90 deaths. The Joplin, MO Tornado in 2011 killed 161 people, injured more than 1000, destroyed more than 8000 structures, and caused $2.8 billion of property loss. Hurricanes occur predominantly on the United States East coast regions and along the coast of …

Fuel Shortages During Hurricanes: Epidemiological Modeling And Optimal Control, Sabique Ul Islam

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Hurricanes are powerful agents of destruction with significant socioeconomic impacts. A persistent problem due to the large-scale evacuations during hurricanes in the southeastern United States is the fuel shortages during the evacuation. Fuel shortages often lead to stranded vehicles and exacerbate the evacuation efforts. Computational models can aid in emergency preparedness and help mitigate the impacts of hurricanes. In this thesis, the hurricane fuel shortages are modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model. Crowd-sourced data corresponding to Hurricane Irma and Florence are utilized to parametrize the model. An estimation technique based on Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is employed to evaluate …

Climatology, Variability, And Return Periods Of Tropical Cyclone Strikes In The Northeastern And Central Pacific Basins, Nicholas S. Grondin

LSU Master's Theses

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive meteorological phenomena and impact the lives of people who reside along the coast. The American Pacific Coastline borders the second most active TC development region in the world, the northeastern Pacific (NE Pac) basin. This region, along with the Central Pacific (C Pac)-bordering Hawaii is home to a growing population and cities engaged in a variety of economic activities, most prominently agriculture, fishing, and tourism. This study analyzes fifty-two (1966-2017) years of NE Pac and C Pac TCs through applying track data from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 and a TC size …

Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord

CCPO Publications

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …

Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins

Theses and Dissertations

Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …

Tropical Cyclone Intensification Under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Rosimar Rios-Berrios

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Deep-layer (200–850 hPa) vertical wind shear is generally an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone intensification. Multiple studies—ranging from case studies to climatological analyses—have consistently shown that the chances of tropical cyclone intensification decrease with increasing vertical wind shear magnitude. However, tropical cyclones can intensify under moderate shear—the range of shear magnitudes that are neither too weak to have negligible influence on intensity nor too strong to completely halt intensification. Intensity, track, and precipitation forecasts of tropical cyclones under moderate shear can be highly uncertain; therefore, explaining how tropical cyclones evolve under seemingly unfavorable conditions is an important step towards improved …

Modeling The Impact Of Land Surface Feedbacks On Post Landfall Tropical Cyclones, Subashini Subramanian

Open Access Dissertations

The land surface is an important component of numerical models. The land surface models are modules that control energy partitioning, compute surface exchange coefficients and form the only physical boundary in a regional scale numerical model. Thus, an accurate representation of land surface is critical to compute surface fluxes, represent the boundary layer evolution and affect changes in weather systems. Land surface can affect landfalling tropical cyclones in two ways: (i) when the cyclone is offshore and land can influence cyclones by introducing dry (or moist) air that can weaken (or strengthen) the organized convective structure of cyclones, and (ii) …

Using Proxy Records To Document Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Cyclones From 1820-1915, Jordan V. Pino, Robert V. Rohli, Kristine L. Delong, Grant L. Harley, Jill C. Trepanier

Faculty Publications

Observations of pre-1950 tropical cyclones are sparse due to observational limitations; therefore, the hurricane database HURDAT2 (1851–present) maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may be incomplete. Here we provide additional documentation for HURDAT2 from historical United States Army fort records (1820–1915) and other archived documents for 28 landfalling tropical cyclones, 20 of which are included in HURDAT2, along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. One event that occurred in May 1863 is not currently documented in the HURDAT2 database but has been noted in other studies. We identify seven tropical cyclones that occurred before 1851, three of which …

Quantifying The Sensitivity Of Maximum, Limiting, And Potential Tropical Cyclone Intensity To Sst: Observations Versus The Fsu/ Coaps Global Climate Model, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Tim Larow

Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessing Inland Hazards Associated With Hurricanes In The U.S. Atlantic Basin, Dereka Latrese Carroll

Open Access Theses

The skill of tropical-cyclone (TC) track forecasts has steadily improved over the past decades, as has the understanding of TC risk in coastal regions. However, there is still much to be learned about the TC risk in inland regions, which is complicated by the presence of coastal evacuees, and includes hazards such as inland flash flooding and tornadoes. This was exemplified by Hurricane Ivan (2004), which spawned 118 tornadoes and produced significant rainfall amounts contributing to flooding inland. Ivan was responsible for 25 deaths in the U.S. and $18.8 billion (2004 USD) in damages. As part of a larger effort …

Probability Distributions And Threshold Selection For Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Sarah Collins, Denis N. Botambekov, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical cyclone wind fields. Aspects of the wind speed probability data distribution, including maximumexpected probability and forecast skill, are assessed. Wind speed probability distributions are shown to be well approximated by a bounded power-law distribution when the feature size is smaller than the location error and tends toward a U-shaped distribution as the location error becomes small. Forecast skill (i.e., true and Heidke skill scores) is …

Keeney, Sean Carpenter (Sc 1259), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Manuscript Collection Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Manuscripts Small Collection 1259. “My Experience of ‘Andrew,’” by Sean Keeney, Dade County, Florida, relating the effect on him and his family of Hurricane Andrew, which struck the area on 24 August 1992. Includes biographical data on Keeney.

Disher, John Lee, 1938-2019 (Sc 1183), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Manuscript Collection Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Manuscripts Small Collection 1183. Letter from John Lee Disher of Summerville, South Carolina, to his sister Nancy Disher Baird, Bowling Green, Kentucky, describing the aftermath of Hurricane Hugo.

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini

CCPO Publications

Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger

Publications

No abstract provided.

A Wrf Simulation Of The Asymmetric Rapid Intensification And Trough Interaction Of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001), Diana Elizabeth Thomas-Abernethy

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Despite 13 ms-1 ambient wind shear, Tropical Storm (TS) Gabrielle underwent 22 hPa pressure falls within 3 hours prior to 0900 UTC 14 September. The rapid intensification of Gabrielle was atypical due to an upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. Additionally, a convective cell developed in the downshear left quadrant of the center, moved cyclonically and inward to the 17 km radius. During this time, The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) had one of its most intense 85 GHz scattering measurements ever (Molinari and Vollaro, 2010).

Dynamical And Precipitation Structures Of Poleward-Moving Tropical Cyclones In Eastern Canada, 1979-2005, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Tropical cyclones in the western North Atlantic basin are a persistent threat to human interests along the east coast of North America. Occurring mainly during the late summer and early autumn, these storms often cause strong winds and extreme rainfall and can have a large impact on the weather of eastern Canada. From 1979 to 2005, 40 named (by the National Hurricane Center) tropical cyclones tracked over eastern Canada. Based on the time tendency of the low-level (850–700 hPa) vorticity, the storms are partitioned into two groups: ‘‘intensifying’’ and ‘‘decaying.’’ The 16 intensifying and 12 decaying cases are then analyzed …

Numerical Simulations Of The Impacts Of The Saharan Air Layer On Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development, Donglian Sun, K. M. Lau, Menas Kafatos, Z. Boybeyi, G. Leptoukh, C. Yang, Ruixin Yang

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this study, the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) is investigated in the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) via modifying environmental stability and moisture, using multisensor satellite data, long-term TC track and intensity records, dust data, and numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The long-term relationship between dust and Atlantic TC activity shows that dust aerosols are negatively associated with hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, especially with the major hurricanes in the western Atlantic region. Numerical simulations with the WRF for specific cases during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses …

Hurricane Katrina, 2005 (Sc 1669), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Manuscript Collection Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Manuscripts Small Collection 1669. E-mails related to the personal and governmental response to Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana.

Mcdaniel, Sue Lynn (Stone), B. 1959 (Sc 1651), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Manuscript Collection Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Manuscripts Small Collection 1651. E-mails sent from Sue Lynn McDaniel to various correspondents related to a Caribbean cruise impacted by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. McDaniel was aboard the cruise ship "Enchantment of the Seas" with friend Pamela Jean Elrod.

Contrasting The 2007 And 2005 Hurricane Seasons: Evidence Of Possible Impacts Of Saharan Dry Air And Dust On Tropical Cyclone Activity In The Atlantic Basin, D. Sun, K. M. Lau, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this study, we provide preliminary evidence of possible modulation by Saharan dust of hurricane genesis and intensification, by contrasting the 2007 and 2005 hurricane seasons. It is found that dust aerosol loadings over the Atlantic Ocean are much higher in 2007 than in 2005. The temperature difference between 2007 and 2005 shows warming in the low-middle troposphere (900–700 hPa) in the dusty region in the eastern North Atlantic, and cooling in the Main Development Region (MDR). The humidity (wind) differences between 2007 and 2005 indicate significant drying (subsidence) in the Western North Atlantic (WNA) in 2007. The drier air …

Role Of Anomalous Warm Gulf Waters In The Intensification Of Hurricane Katrina, Menas Kafatos, D. Sun, Ritesh Gautam, Z. Boybeyi, Ruixin Yang, G. Cervone

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The year 2005 experienced several strong hurricanes intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall that severely damaged the Gulf States, especially Hurricane Katrina. Remarkable similarities between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and major hurricane (categories 3 and higher) activity over the Gulf are identified. However, the intensification of individual hurricanes may not necessarily be temporally and spatially coincident with the distribution of warm waters or high sea surface temperature (SST). High SST values are found in advance of significant intensification of Hurricane Katrina. We emphasize that high SSTA which occurred at the right time and right place was …

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …