Meteorology Commons^™

Impact Of Weather Factors On Airport Arrival Rates: Application Of Machine Learning In Air Transportation, Robert W. Maxson, Dothang Truong, Woojin Choi

Publications

Weather is responsible for approximately 70% of air transportation delays in the National Airspace System, and delays resulting from convective weather alone cost airlines and passengers millions of dollars each year due to delays that could be avoided. This research sought to establish relationships between environmental variables and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered from six out of ten airports using various machine learning methods within an overarching data mining protocol, and the developed models were tested using historical data.

Hyper-Local Weather Predictions With The Enhanced General Urban Area Microclimate Predictions Tool, Kevin A. Adkins, William Becker, Sricharan Ayyalasomayajula, Steven Lavenstein, Kleoniki Vlachou, David Miller, Marc Compere, Avinash Muthu Krishnan, Nickolas Macchiarella

Publications

This paper presents enhancements to, and the demonstration of, the General Urban area Microclimate Predictions tool (GUMP), which is designed to provide hyper-local weather predictions by combining machine-learning (ML) models and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. For the further development and demonstration of GUMP, the Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) campus was used as a test environment. Local weather sensors provided data to train ML models, and CFD models of urban- and suburban-like areas of ERAU’s campus were created and iterated through with a wide assortment of inlet wind speed and direction combinations. ML weather sensor predictions were combined with best-fit …

The Effect Of Advection On The Three Dimensional Distribution Of Turbulent Kinetic Energy And Its Generation In Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations, Joshua B. Wadler, David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Lynn K. Shay, Joseph B. Olsen, Joseph J. Cione

Publications

The distribution of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its budget terms is estimated in simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) of various intensities. Each simulated TC is subject to storm motion, wind shear, and oceanic coupling. Different storm intensities are achieved through different ocean profiles in the model initialization. For each oceanic profile, the atmospheric simulations are performed with and without TKE advection. In all simulations, the TKE is maximized at low levels (i.e., below 1 km) and ∼0.5 km radially inward of the azimuthal-mean radius of maximum wind speed at 1-km height. As in a previous study, the axisymmetric TKE decreases …

Validated Question Bank For Assessing Pilot Knowledge Of Aviation Weather Appendix: Weather Product Interpretation Questions, Robert Thomas, Cassandra Dommingo, John Kleber, Jackie Mcsorely, Amber Cole, Thomas Guinn, Elizabeth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

This appendix supplements the Thomas et al. (2022) paper titled “Validated Question Bank for Assessing Pilot Knowledge of Aviation Weather ” which validates a set of weather product interpretation questions that can be used to measure a pilot’s understanding of weather. The assessment consists of 15 weather product interpretation topics which can be administered as a single 65-question survey or, as in the Thomas et al. (2022) study, two assessments of 33 and 32 questions each separated by topic. The set of 65 questions can be found in this appendix along with a table which demonstrates how to separate the …

The Development And Evaluation Of The Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification Regression Model (Atcirm), Bruno Platero Huarcaya, Lexi Cruz

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Operational track forecasts of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have been improved substantially in recent years and nowadays are sufficiently accurate. However, intensity forecasts have not shown similar improvements, especially for rapidly intensifying storms. The improvement of intensity forecast accuracy can help authorities in risk management and decision making to prevent loss of life and property. The purpose of our project is to develop a statistical linear regression model that provides better predictions for TC intensification over the ocean. Here, different predictor variables are studied, and 2011-2017 Atlantic basin storms are investigated. The final set of predictor variables selected for the model …

Applying Human Factors Heuristic Evaluation Tools To Improve Aviation Weather Displays: A Mismatch, John Kleber, Paige Lawton, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

The evaluation of current Heuristic Evaluation Tools for use in assessing Aviation Weather Displays.

Aviation Human-In-The-Loop Simulation: Best Practices For Subjective Performance Measurement, John Kleber, Beth Blickensderfer

Aviation Weather Training Research

Subjective performance measurements are a useful tool for researchers and instructors to evaluate tasks that are difficult to quantify with objective data pulled from a simulator or the physiological data of pilots. Subjective performance measurements are non-intrusive measures typically conducted by human raters. Some recommendations for utilizing subjective measures include reducing the workload of the human raters, concealing the aim of the experiment from participants, utilizing multiple raters to evaluate each participant, providing raters with proper training, developing error-resistant rater forms and, including both subjective and objective measures when possible.

An Exploratory Study Of General Aviation Visual To Instrument Meteorological Condition Contextual Factors, James Harry Hartman Iii

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The purpose of this dissertation was to bridge the existing literature gap of outdated contextual factor (CF) research through examination and determination of current General Aviation (GA) Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 91 visual flight rules (VFR)-into-instrument meteorological condition (IMC) contextual factors. Contextual factors are a multifaceted arrangement of pertinent events or occurrences contributing to pilot accidents in weather-related decision-making errors. A total of 46 contextual factors were identified and examined from the reviewed research literature. The study examined and determined the presence of the 46 contextual factors, frequencies, and manifestations in the GA VFR-into-IMC Aviation Accident …

Large Scale Upper-Level Precursors For Dust Storm Formation Over North Africa And Poleward Transport To The Iberian Peninsula. Part I: An Observational Analysis, J.A. G. Orza, Michael L. Kaplan, S. Dhital, S. Fiedler

Publications

The analysis of three extreme African dust outbreaks over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) shows that a double Rossby wave breaking (RWB) process in the polar jet (PJ) creates the conditions for dust storm formation over subtropical deserts in North Africa and the restructuring of upper-level air flows critical for the dust transport poleward after ablation. Two consecutive anticyclonic RWBs initiate over the IP and the adjacent Atlantic, the first commencing 10 days before dust reaches the IP and the second three to five days later. The first RWB becomes quasi-stationary over the eastern Mediterranean when the second RWB develops. In …

Observations Of An Extreme Atmospheric River Storm With A Diverse Sensor Network, B. J. Hatchett, Michael L. Kaplan, Q. Cao, P. B. Dawson, C. J. Ellis, Et Al.

Publications

Observational networks enhance real‐time situational awareness for emergency and water resource management during extreme weather events. We present examples of how a diverse, multitiered observational network in California provided insights into hydrometeorological processes and impacts during a 3‐day atmospheric river storm centered on 14 February 2019. This network, which has been developed over the past two decades, aims to improve understanding and mitigation of effects from extreme storms influencing water resources and natural hazards. We combine atmospheric reanalysis output and additional observations to show how the network allows: (1) the validation of record cool season precipitable water observations over southern …

Use Of Lidar Data To Investigate The Influence Of Bottom Friction Coefficients For Storm Surge Modeling Of Hurricane Michael In The Florida Panhandle, Sky Comarsh White

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Current storm surge modeling typically uses local land use land cover (LULC) maps coupled with lookup tables to parameterize surface roughness because the process is defensible and easily automated at the regional scale. However, this is not a truly accurate method since LULC data is generalized for an area and often contains misclassifications. Intra-class variability is also a concern as variations in obstacle density within LULC classifications are prominent at typical storm surge model resolution scales ranging from 20-meters to 200-meters in the floodplain. Using lidar data, topography and the 3-dimensional structure of above-ground obstructions can be more accurately characterized, …

An Aviation Weather Preflight Decision Support Tool To Improve Ga Pilots Preflight And Inflight Performance, Jayde M. King

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Low hour, inexperienced General Aviation (GA) pilots account for the majority of weather-related incidents, which often result in fatalities. Previous research identifies poor preflight planning practices and a lack of aviation weather knowledge as key contributing factors to the high novice private pilot accident and fatality rate. Research invested into resolving these issues often attempt to introduce new inflight weather technology to assist pilots with weather avoidance. However, these interventions usually result in pilots using the information to strategically navigate closer to degraded weather conditions (Beringer & Ball, 2004; Burgess & Thomas, 2004). Therefore, the purpose of this study was …

Assessing If Motivation Impacts General Aviation Pilots’ Persistence In Varying Weather Conditions, Sabrina Woods

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Continued flight under visual flight rules into instrument meteorological conditions is the predominant cause for fatal accidents by percentage, for general aviation aircraft operations. It is possible that a pilot’s motivation or reason for flying will override other safer, more logical courses of action when a hazard presents itself. The decision appears to stem from a willingness to persist in a course of action despite factors that indicate an alternate and safer course is warranted. This research addresses what is currently presumed about the decision to continue flying under visual flight rules into instrument conditions and marries those ideas with …

Development Of A Sensor Suite For Atmospheric Boundary Layer Measurement With A Small Multirotor Unmanned Aerial System, Kevin A. Adkins, Christopher J. Swinford, Peter D. Wambolt, Gordon Bease

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) are increasingly being used to conduct atmospheric research. Because of the dynamic nature and inhomogeneity of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), the ability of instrumented sUAS to make on-demand 3-dimensional high-resolution spatial measurements of atmospheric parameters makes them particularly suited to ABL investigations. Both fixed-wing and multirotor sUAS have been used for ABL investigations. Most investigations to date have included in-situ measurement of thermodynamic quantities such as temperature, pressure and humidity. When wind has been measured, a variety of strategies have been used. Two of the most popular techniques have been deducing wind from inertial …

A Proposed Taxonomy For General Aviation Pilot Weather Education And Training, John M. Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Jayde M. King, Beth Blickensderfer, Robert Thomas, Yolanda Ortiz

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

As General Aviation (GA) safety continues to remain a focus of the aviation community, GA pilot weather education and training continues to be an active area of interest within the research community. This study introduces a taxonomy for organizing GA pilot weather education and training materials that was originally conceived as part of the FAA’s Weather Technology In the Cockpit research program. The taxonomy is built upon three main knowledge categories, or tiers:1) Weather Phenomena (which includes hazards); 2) Weather Hazard Products; and 3) Weather Hazard Product Sources and their Application. The concept behind the categorization is to link knowledge …

How Airport Construction Will Evolve With The Increased Effects Of Climate Change, Xavier M. Ashley

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This report addressed the effects rising global temperatures resulting from climate change have had on flight operations in their entirety. The research objective was to discover what methods could enhance climate adaptation in airport construction, as higher mean-surface temperatures have an increasingly negative effect on aircraft performance. The findings would primarily be of interest to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Primary Office presiding over the planning and development of airports. Overall, the report provided a comprehensive analysis of global warming’s effects on aviation, including the implications of degraded aircraft performance and sea-level rise for coastal airports. Additionally, it examined comparative …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation : Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Current Study
• Trends
• Summary
• Conclusion

Exploring Perceived Usability And Interpretability Of Aviation Weather Products Among Ga Pilots, Jackie Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Results
• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Comparison Of Terrain Effects In Divergent Versus Non-Divergent Barotropic Models, Tyler E. Green, Thomas A. Guinn

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

The effects of including terrain in divergent and non-divergent, single-level barotropic models are examined in detail using a global spectral model. The non-divergent model solves the barotropic vorticity equation, while the divergent model solves the shallow water equations. In both models, the impact of terrain is evaluated by examining the evolution of the predicted heights of a pressure surface. Four simulations with initially zonal flow were run for each model using a two-dimensional Gaussian mountain shape for terrain, with two different mean fluid depths of 5,000 m and 7,500 m, and two different peak mountain heights of 2,000 m and …

Efficacy Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program In Ceiling Flight Category Forecasts, Douglas D. Boyd, Thomas A. Guinn, Thomas A. Guinn

Publications

(1) Background: Flying in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carries an elevated risk of fatal outcome for general aviation (GA) pilots. For the typical GA flight, aerodrome-specific forecasts (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF), Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP)) assist the airman in pre-determining whether a flight can be safely undertaken. While LAMP forecasts are more prevalent at GA-frequented aerodromes, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommends that this tool be used as supplementary to the TAF only. Herein, the predictive accuracy of LAMP for ceiling flight categories of visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) was determined. (2) Methods: …

Combined Report: Aviation Weather Knowledge Assessment & General Aviation (Ga) Pilots’ Interpretation Of Weather Products, Beth Blickensderfer, John Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas, Jennifer E. Thropp, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Jessica Cruit, Nicholas Defilippis, Krijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley, John Kleber

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Prior research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts and skill at interpreting aviation weather displays. Therefore, the purpose of the current project was to develop and validate a comprehensive set of aviation weather knowledge and interpretation multiple-choice questions, and in turn, to use the questions to assess pilot understanding of aviation weather concepts and displays. An interdisciplinary research team that included two meteorologists, one Gold Seal Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI), a human factors psychologist, and several human factors graduate students performed this research.

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

Preflight Weather Worksheet, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Weather Training Modules

Preflight Weather Worksheet

• Big Picture
• Hazards
• Visibility

Usability Analysis Of Convective Sigmets, Jackie Mcsorley, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Methods
• Results

○ Interface Analysis: System Usability Scale

○ Workload Analysis: NASA-TLX

• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation: Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

As a result of advances in weather forecasting and technology, today’s General Aviation (GA) pilots have access to a wealth of aviation weather information. During pre-flight planning, GA pilots may access weather radar images, satellite pictures, winds, and forecast maps. During flight, pilots can access in-cockpit weather displays, as well as, handheld portable weather devices. Despite the increasing advancement and accessibility of weather displays, there is limited research addressing the interpretability of both in-cockpit and preflight weather displays. This is particularly concerning considering that preflight planning and poor product interpretability have been cited as possible contributing factors for GA weather …

On Atmospheric Lapse Rates, Nihad E. Daidzic

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

We have derived and summarized and most important atmospheric temperature lapse rates. ALRs essentially govern vertical atmospheric air stability and creation of some cloud types. The sensitivity analysis of various atmospheric lapse rates and their dependence on actual ideal-gas air properties and gravitational attraction was conducted for the first time to the best of our knowledge. SALR, which has DALR as the upper asymptote, showed steepest decrease at around 9 degrees Celsius then flattening out and apparently approaching another asymptotic solution which has not been investigated as it falls outside of the terrestrial temperature range. ISA lapse rates are adopted …

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Adding Value To Numerical Weather Predictions For The Aviation Industry In South Africa., Quinton Jacobs Mr., Willem A. Landman Prof.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The main objective of this study is to determine whether human forecasters at the main airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Dataset pairs of weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts are constructed for three forecast systems: the human forecasters, persistence forecast and the raw output from the 12 km resolution Unified Model administered by the South African Weather Service. These three dataset pairs are independently evaluated by a forecast verification system developed at the South African Weather Service. A …

Challenges For Flight Instructors Teaching Weather Information, Robert Thomas, Thomas A. Guinn

Aviation Weather Training Research

• Flight Instructors face a challenge when teaching/learning weather information
• Multiple overlapping resources for aviation weather
• AC takes longer timeframe to update –problem for quick updates of information

Assessing Ga Pilots' Preflight Weather Planning Mental Models, Yolanda Ortiz, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas A. Guinn

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Purpose, To assess GA Pilots' ability to:

• Obtain the Appropriate Weather Information
• Interpret the Data
• Apply the Information to a Given Flight Route