Meteorology Commons^™

The Value Of Created Dunes To Address Coastal Hazards In Chesapeake Bay: Hurricane Isabel Impacts, C. Scott Hardaway Jr., Donna A. Milligan, Travis R. Comer

Reports

Perhaps the most important function of a created dune, from some perspectives, is coastal protection. Since the initiation of this subtask within the overall Chesapeake Bay Dune Monitoring and Management Analysis project, Hurricane Isabel impacted the coastal plain of Virginia and significantly altered almost all Bay shorelines to one degree or another. This is particularly true of shorelines facing north, east, and south since the winds shifted as the storm passed. The original task scope has changed slightly as a result of Isabel’s passage since it was such a significant storm event and provided an opportunity to show how dunes …

Extratropical Transition Of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Part Ii: Midlatitude Circulation Characteristics, Mark R. Sinclair

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

This second of two papers on extratropical transition (ET) over the southwest Pacific Ocean focuses on the variability of ET. A climatology of ET onset based on a previously described objective technique shows that ET commences 158 of latitude nearer the equator on average than similar cases from the Northern Hemisphere. Characteristic midlatitude circulation patterns accompanying ET near 308S are identified by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 50 storms. The first eigenvector pattern, explaining nearly half the circulation variability, expresses relaxed and enhanced pressure gradients south of the storm that define composites similar to ‘‘cradled’’ and ‘‘captured’’ …

Seasonal Aeration Rates For The Eastern United States Based On Long-Term Weather Patterns, Michael D. Montross, Samuel G. Mcneill, Thomas C. Bridges

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

Most aeration fans are sized to produce a minimum airflow rate of 0.1 m³/min/t (0.1 cfm/bu) in on-farm grain storage structures. At this airflow rate a significant amount of time is required to move a cooling front completely through a bin. The desired grain temperature and prevailing weather conditions will have a significant effect on required fan size. Thirty years of weather data were analyzed for the eastern United States to determine the amount of time available in temperature windows between 0 to 15.C and 0 to 17.C. Contour maps were generated with ArcMap 8.3 for the percentage …

Evaluating Spatial Variability Of Precipitation In Kentucky With Exploratory Data Analysis, Daniel Taylor

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Spatial variability of precipitation is examined over the state of Kentucky and surrounding areas. The study focuses on the analysis of monthly precipitation totals from the period of 1961-2000. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of indices to represent the spatial variability of the study area for a given month. Various exploratory data analysis methods such as variography, kriging, and cluster analysis were used. The study attempts to quantify the second order (local) effects of the spatial variation of precipitation as a means to provide insight into the prediction of precipitation randomness. This task can be …

Soil Moisture As An Indicator Of Weather Extremes, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas C. Piechota, Ujjwal Narayan, Chunling Tang

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In this paper, we investigate floods and droughts in the Upper Mississippi basin over a 50-year period (1950–1999) using a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – 3 Layer). Simulations have been carried out between January 1950 and December 1999 at daily time-step and 1/8° spatial resolution for the water budget and at hourly time-step and 1° spatial resolution for the energy balance. This paper will provide valuable insights to the slow response components of the hydrological cycle and its diagnostic/predictive value in the case of floods and droughts. The paper compares the use of the Palmer Drought Severity Index …

A Recommendation For An Enhanced Fujita Scale (Ef-Scale)

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Background

National Weather Service (NWS) personnel who are responsible for rating tornadoes have expressed frustrations in applying the Fujita Scale in a consistent and accurate manner. Weak links in a structural system or a slow-moving storm sometimes lead to an overrating of a tornado event. Several technical articles suggest that wind speeds associated with some descriptions of damage are too high. For example, a 260 mph wind speed is not required to completely destroy a well constructed house and blow away the debris. The damage occurs at significantly lower wind speeds. Minor et al. (1977) and Phan and Simiu (2003) …

Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox

Theses and Dissertations

The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the …

Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis

Theses and Dissertations

Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with …

Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis

Theses and Dissertations

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have onboard sensors that continuously record weather data during their missions. This information is extremely valuable to both the meteorological and UAV communities with numerous potential benefits, which include improved weather forecast products and additional weather intelligence for military planners. The value of any dataset is directly related to its accuracy and this research determined the accuracy of weather data obtained from a particular UAV, the RQ-4A Global Hawk. This was accomplished through statistical analysis and comparisons with upper-air data and Atmospheric Slant Path Analysis Model (ASPAM) profiles of the atmosphere. Recommendations are provided for the …

Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett

Theses and Dissertations

Dust storms are extreme weather events that have strong winds laden with visibility reducing and operations limiting dust, The Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) 28th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) is ultimately responsible for forecasting weather in the vast, data denied region of Southwest Asia in support of daily military and humanitarian operations. As a result, the 28th OWS requests a simplified forecasting tool to help predict mesoscale dust events that affect coalition operations at Al Udeid AB, Qatar. This research satisfies the 28th OWS request through an extensive statistical analysis of observational data depicting seasonal dust events over the past …

Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler

Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best identification and forecast schemes available using satellite imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the forecast process. Using …

A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces …

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain, Amanda Brandt, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Drew Coleman, Donald H. Baepler, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

This work will be conducted under Task ORD-FY04-007, “Precipitation Monitoring at Yucca Mountain”. The objective of this task is to measure, with known accuracy, the accumulation and timing of precipitation around Yucca Mountain using tipping bucket rain gauges. The data are used as part of the overall work supporting the net infiltration modeling Analysis Model Report, Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates, and the Performance Confirmation Plan. This work is subject to UCCSN QA program requirements. This SIP presents an independent confirmatory study supporting previously gathered information.

El Niño Suppresses Antarctic Warming, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Peter J. Barrett, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Ryan L. Fogt, Karl J. Kreutz, James Shulmeister

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann …

An Analysis Of Simulated Long-Term Soil Moisture Data For Three Land Uses Under Contrasting Hydroclimatic Conditions In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mamood, Kenneth G. Hubbard

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in land surface and atmosphere interactions. It modifies energy balance near the surface and the rate of water cycling between land and atmosphere. The lack of observed SM data prohibits understanding of SM variations at climate scales under varying land uses. However, with simulation models it is possible to develop a long-term SM dataset and study these issues. In this paper a water balance model is used to provide a quantitative assessment of SM climatologies for three land uses, namely, irrigated corn, rain-fed corn, and grass, grown under three hydroclimatic regimes in Nebraska. …

The Weather Of 1785: An Interdisciplinary Approach To Meteorological Reconstruction Using Forensic Synoptic Analysis, Louis K. Mcnally

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of the work is to discern differences and similarities in synoptic-scale rneteorology by reconstructing the weather of the year 1785 on a daily basis. This is accomplished by compiling data from both homogenous and non-homogenous observational records, and from historical anecdotal evidence as recorded in diaries, archives and contemporary publications. Through this reconstruction, it is possible to infer some characteristics of the global circulation of 1785. With forensic techniques, I develop meteorological parameters from anecdotal evidence. These data are combined with meteorological observational records to produce a database from which semi-diurnal weather maps can be constructed. Sources include …