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Meteorology Commons™

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1999

Articles 1 - 14 of 14

Full-Text Articles in Meteorology

Maximum Temperature Trends In The Himalaya And Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based On Temperature Records From Nepal For The Period 1971-94, Arun B. Shrestha, Camerson P. Wake, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Jack E. Dibb Sep 1999

Maximum Temperature Trends In The Himalaya And Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based On Temperature Records From Nepal For The Period 1971-94, Arun B. Shrestha, Camerson P. Wake, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Jack E. Dibb

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Analyses of maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal for the period 1971-94 reveal warming trends after 1977 ranging from 0.06° to 0.12°C yr1 in most of the Middle Mountain and Himalayan regions, while the Siwalik and Terai (southern plains) regions show warming trends less than 0.03°C yr1. The subset of records (14 stations) extending back to the early 1960s suggests that the recent warming trends were preceded by similar widespread cooling trends. Distributions of seasonal and annual temperature trends show high rates of warming in the high-elevation regions of the country (Middle Mountains and Himalaya), …

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Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using A Meso-Eta Model-Based Index, John C. Crane Mar 1999

Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using A Meso-Eta Model-Based Index, John C. Crane

Theses and Dissertations

Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This research focused on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Logistic regression techniques were used to regress the occurrence of a thunderstorm at Cape Canaveral against day-2 forecast variables output, or derived, from the mesoscale eta model. Accuracy and bias scores were calculated for the forecasts made by the regression equations, and the forecast results were compared …

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A Comparison Of Horizontal Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Flash Distance Using Weather Surveillance Radar And The Distance Between Successive Flashes Method, Christopher C. Cox Mar 1999

A Comparison Of Horizontal Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Flash Distance Using Weather Surveillance Radar And The Distance Between Successive Flashes Method, Christopher C. Cox

Theses and Dissertations

On April 29th, 1996 an airman servicing a C-130 aircraft on Huriburt AFB Florida was struck and killed by a lightning flash that traveled an estimated 7 to 10 miles from storms south of the airfield. Ten other workers were injured in the incident. The fatal flash occurred just 8 minutes after the base weather station allowed a lightning advisory to expire. The incident brought to question the adequacy of lightning advisory criteria. Very little research has been done on the horizontal distance that cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurs from the center of a thunderstorm. This thesis used the WSR-88D method, …

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Evaluation Of Barnes' Method And Kriging For Estimating The Low Level Wind Field, Michael W. Engel Mar 1999

Evaluation Of Barnes' Method And Kriging For Estimating The Low Level Wind Field, Michael W. Engel

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis evaluates two different methods of estimating a three dimensional wind field based upon a limited number of irregularly-spaced observations. This work was performed for the 45th Weather Squadron to determine how well the two methods worked and their potential for use in a visualization program. The two methods evaluated were Barnes' method and a method called Kriging, which is commonly used in geostatistics. Both of these estimation techniques were implemented and then evaluated to determine how accurate the estimates were that they created. The methods' accuracies were determined by withholding an observation from the observed wind field data …

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An Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index For Cape Canaveral, Florida, James A. Everitt Mar 1999

An Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index For Cape Canaveral, Florida, James A. Everitt

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis creates a new algorithm to replace the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick AFB, Florida, uses the NPTI as an objective means of determining the probability of thunderstorm occurrence at Cape Canaveral. The probability is used for mission planning and resource protection, and increasing the accuracy of NPTI can potentially save billions of dollars for the United States space program. Stratified logistical regressions are performed and probability equations are derived for May through September using upper air data and surface observations for Cape Canaveral. A logistical regression of NPTI was also performed. Variables include …

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A Validation Study Of Cloud Scene Simulation Model Temporal Performance, Glenn Kerr Mar 1999

A Validation Study Of Cloud Scene Simulation Model Temporal Performance, Glenn Kerr

Theses and Dissertations

Cloud Scene Simulation Model (CSSM) temporal performance was validated by comparing the cloud forcing signatures on observed radiometric time series with those derived from CSSM output for initial conditions similar to that for the observed data. Observed radiometric data was collected by a normal incidence pyraheliometer sensitive to wavelengths in the range .3mm to 3mm. Simulation radiometric time series data was derived by applying the following process to each case study. CSSM cloud liquid water content (CLWC) grids were converted to grids of slant path optical depth values by the Fast Map post processor to the CSSM. A ray tracing …

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Forecasting Downdraft Wind Speeds Associated With Airmass Thunderstorms For Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, Using The Wsr-88d, Travis A. Steen Mar 1999

Forecasting Downdraft Wind Speeds Associated With Airmass Thunderstorms For Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, Using The Wsr-88d, Travis A. Steen

Theses and Dissertations

During the period Jun-Aug 96, four Air Force installations suffered over $4.8 million in damage from convective winds. During the same summer, Air Force Space Command units issued nearly 65% of their weather warnings for convective winds, making the forecasting of convective winds the most frequent challenge to forecasters. This thesis seeks to assist Air Force forecasters at Peterson Air Force Base (PAFB), Colorado, in forecasting airmass thunderstorm downdraft wind speeds using the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). To accomplish this purpose, several existing potential downdraft wind speed prediction techniques were evaluated against the observed wind speeds of nineteen airmass …

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Using The Wsr-88d To Forecast Downburst Winds At Cape Canaveral Air Station And The Kennedy Space Center (Ccas/Ksc), Gerald D. Sullivan Jr. Mar 1999

Using The Wsr-88d To Forecast Downburst Winds At Cape Canaveral Air Station And The Kennedy Space Center (Ccas/Ksc), Gerald D. Sullivan Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

The 45 Weather Squadron is tasked with providing several convective wind warnings in support of the U. S. Space Program. The forecasters use a radar-based forecast technique to determine if a thunderstorm has the potential to produce a gust that meets warning criteria. This technique, the Echo Top/Vertically Integrated Liquid Wind Gust Potential (ET/VIL WGP), has not previously been evaluated for use in the Cape Canaveral Air Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAS/KSC) locale. Additionally, there are two other radar-based forecast techniques that required evaluation for possible inclusion into the 45 WS forecast process. These are the Maximum Reflectivity / …

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A Refinement And Cross-Validation Of The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (Ssm/I) Calibration-Validation (Cv) Brightness Temperature Algorithm, Mark R. Adair Mar 1999

A Refinement And Cross-Validation Of The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (Ssm/I) Calibration-Validation (Cv) Brightness Temperature Algorithm, Mark R. Adair

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) currently uses an algorithm to calculate surface temperatures from microwave observations taken by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) aboard the orbiting platforms of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). This algorithm, called the Calibration-Validation (CV) algorithm, used multiple linear regression to calculate coefficients relating microwave brightness temperatures and land surface temperatures. Because the coefficients in this algorithm do not take into account the identity of the individual satellite, the question arose whether this assumption was valid. This thesis used multiple linear regression, stepwise linear regression, and qualitative regression on 3700 data sets from …

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Predicting Launch Pad Winds At The Kennedy Space Center With A Neural Network Model, Steven J. Storch Mar 1999

Predicting Launch Pad Winds At The Kennedy Space Center With A Neural Network Model, Steven J. Storch

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis uses neural networks to forecast winds at the Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Air Station launch pads. Variables are developed from WINDS tower observations, surface and buoy observations, and an upper-air sounding. From these variables, a smaller set of predictive inputs is chosen using a signal-to-noise variable screening method. A neural network is then trained to forecast launch pad winds from the inputs. The network forecasts are compared to persistence, and peak wind predictions are found skillful compared to persistence. An ensemble modeling technique using Toth's and Kalnay's breeding of growing modes method is explored with …

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Survey Of Military Applications For Fourier Transform Infrared (Ftir) Spectroscopy, Robert G. Hauser Feb 1999

Survey Of Military Applications For Fourier Transform Infrared (Ftir) Spectroscopy, Robert G. Hauser

Theses and Dissertations

This paper surveyed four potential military uses for a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectrometer. A physical method to retrieve vertical atmospheric temperature profiles using a least-squares solution on atmospheric radiance observed at the surface in the 4.3-micrometer carbon dioxide absorption band was analyzed. The method was not successful. Weighting functions, calculated from the surface looking up, were a maximum at the surface, so no unique solution for temperature retrieval by height was determined. Observed atmospheric radiance measurements were compared with radiance calculated using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance Code (MODTRAN). Qualitative comparison showed spectral features of observed and calculated radiance plots …

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Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker Jan 1999

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …

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Colder By The Lake? The Lake Effect On Static Air Temperatures In Duluth, Minnesota 1961-1990, Graham A. Tobin, Gordon L. Levine, Jacqueline H. Alexander Jan 1999

Colder By The Lake? The Lake Effect On Static Air Temperatures In Duluth, Minnesota 1961-1990, Graham A. Tobin, Gordon L. Levine, Jacqueline H. Alexander

Journal of the Minnesota Academy of Science

To test the impact of Lake Superior on local climates, daily temperature data were collected from two weather stations in Duluth, Minnesota for the period 1961 through 1990. The broad goal of the research was to ascertain to what extent climate conditions differed between lakeside and inland locations. Temperature data were standardized to local lake-level to control for altitudinal differences between weather stations. These data were then analyzed at two temporal scales, annual and seasonal, with the focus on mean high and mean low temperatures. Results indicated that the moderating effect of the lake indeed was apparent especially in raising …

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Johnston, Jesse Walter, Sr., 1880-1972 (Sc 1337), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives Jan 1999

Johnston, Jesse Walter, Sr., 1880-1972 (Sc 1337), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and typescript (Click on "Additional Files" below) for Manuscripts Small Collection 1337. Journal kept by Jesse Walter Johnston, Sr., Sebree, Webster County, Kentucky, concerning the destructive 1937 flood and data about Johnston. He was minister of the First Baptist Church, Sebree from 1929 to 1944.

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