Meteorology Commons^™

The Influence Of Wave– And Zonal Mean–Ozone Feedbacks On The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Eugene Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Eugene C. Cordero

The effects of wave and zonal mean ozone heating on the evolution of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined using a two-dimensional mechanistic model of the equatorial stratosphere. The model atmosphere is governed by coupled equations for the zonal mean and (linear) wave fields of ozone, temperature, and wind, and is driven by specifying the amplitudes of a Kelvin wave and a Rossby–gravity wave at the lower boundary. Wave–mean flow interactions are accounted for in the model, but not wave–wave interactions.

A reference simulation (RS) of the QBO, in which ozone feedbacks are neglected, is carried out and the results …

The Influence Of Wave– And Zonal Mean–Ozone Feedbacks On The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Eugene Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The effects of wave and zonal mean ozone heating on the evolution of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined using a two-dimensional mechanistic model of the equatorial stratosphere. The model atmosphere is governed by coupled equations for the zonal mean and (linear) wave fields of ozone, temperature, and wind, and is driven by specifying the amplitudes of a Kelvin wave and a Rossby–gravity wave at the lower boundary. Wave–mean flow interactions are accounted for in the model, but not wave–wave interactions.

A reference simulation (RS) of the QBO, in which ozone feedbacks are neglected, is carried out and the results …

Experimental Goes Sounder Products For The Assessment Of Downburst Potential, Gary P. Ellrod, James P. Nelson Iii, Michael R. Witiw, Lynda Bottos, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Several experimental products derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder retrievals (vertical profiles of temperature and moisture) have been developed to assist weather forecasters in assessing the potential for convective downbursts. The product suite currently includes the wind index (WINDEX), a dry microburst index, and the maximum difference in equivalent potential temperature (θe) from the surface to 300 hPa. The products are displayed as color-coded boxes or numerical values, superimposed on GOES visible, infrared, or water vapor imagery, and are available hourly, day and night, via the Internet. After two full summers of evaluation, the products have been shown …

Effects Of Planetary Wave-Breaking On The Seasonal Variation Of Total Column Ozone, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero, Long Li, Donald J. Wuebbles

Eugene C. Cordero

The effects of planetary wave breaking on the seasonal variation of total column ozone are investigated using a zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the atmosphere. The planetary wave breaking effects of zonal wavenumbers k=1 and k=2 are significant in the middle latitude stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, whereas only wave k=1 is important during Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter. The mixing and induced meridional circulation due to the planetary wave breaking increases the seasonal variation of total column ozone in NH (SH) middle latitudes by ∼20% (∼10%).

Effects Of Planetary Wave-Breaking On The Seasonal Variation Of Total Column Ozone, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero, Long Li, Donald J. Wuebbles

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The effects of planetary wave breaking on the seasonal variation of total column ozone are investigated using a zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the atmosphere. The planetary wave breaking effects of zonal wavenumbers k=1 and k=2 are significant in the middle latitude stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, whereas only wave k=1 is important during Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter. The mixing and induced meridional circulation due to the planetary wave breaking increases the seasonal variation of total column ozone in NH (SH) middle latitudes by ∼20% (∼10%).

Mixed Layer Height Estimates – A Statistical Analysis Of Algorithm Performance, Lisa C. Shoemaker

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) conducts dispersion transport modeling as part of their mission support for the United States Atomic Energy Detection System. Part of that modeling effort requires knowledge of the height of the mixed layer in the lower atmosphere to determine the vertical extent through which particulates can be distributed. The mixed layer can be estimated by analyzing atmospheric profiles of parameters obtained from observations (e.g., upper air soundings) or atmospheric models. Six mixed layer algorithms were evaluated: Gradient Richardson Number (RICH), Potential Temperature (POTEMP), Potential Instability Mixing Depth (PIMIX), and three variations of the PIMIX …

An Analysis In Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over Land Versus Water, Elizabeth A. Boll

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding lightning characteristics over land and water is vital to achieving optimal safety and success in Air Force missions. Lightning safety rules are often based on experience rather than a scientific understanding of lightning. Examining lightning characteristics over water and land will assist in a better understanding of lightning and provide answers that can protect human lives and property. Water and land have different compositions and surface conductivity values. A lightning stroke is detected through a change in the electro-magnetic field at the surface. The change in surface conductivity values from land to water can affect the detection of a …

An Evaluation Of Microburst Prediction Indices For The Kennedy Space Center And Cape Canaveral Air Station (Ksc/Ccas), Steven N. Dickerson

Theses and Dissertations

A wet-microburst event on 16 August 1994 at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility alerted forecasters from the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS), the provider of weather support to the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), to the challenges of wet-microburst prediction. Although there was no operational impact, this event caused the 45WS to revise their severe thunderstorm forecasting procedures to specifically address microbursts, resulting in the locally developed Microburst-Day Potential Index (MDPI). MDPI provides a several-hour outlook of microburst potential based on the results of the Microburst and Severe Thunderstorm (MIST) project. The 45WS also …

Determining The Horizontal Distance Distribution Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning, Tamara L. Parsons

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort attempted to quantify what constitutes a safe distance when lightning is present. The method used in this research project groups lightning flashes into clusters using spatial and temporal constraints. However, not all flashes meet the time and distance criteria for clustering and remained outside of tile grouped flashes and as such are identified as isolated flashes. These isolated flashes are outliers in the data set, but are precisely the flashes that prove most dangerous. For this reason not only were the distances between each flash and cluster center studied, but also the distances between each isolated flash …

A Neural Network Solution To Predicting Wind Speed At Cape Canaveral’S Atlas Launch Pad, Kenneth P. Cloys

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis demonstrates the potential for using time-delay neural networks to provide Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) at 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) with advance warning of wintertime (November-March) peak wind speeds at the Atlas launch pad. The 45 WS provides weather support to the United States space program at Cape Canaveral Air Station, NASA's Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick Air Force Base. Due to the complex wintertime environment produced by the effects of friction and instability, 45 WS LWOs consider wintertime launch pad winds their toughest forecast challenge. Neural networks were developed, trained, and tested using observations of wintertime peak …

Extensible Markup Language As A Weather Tool, Michael J. Calidonna

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a proof of concept work that will extend the Core Mapping Application Program Interface (CMAPI) components to include weather data. The CMAPI project is headed by Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)/Information Directorate Information Handling Branch (IFEB) at Rome labs in Rome, New York. This work extends the CMAPI project in two distinct areas. The first goal is to figure out how to overlay and display weather data on a dynamically linked Internet platform. This was accomplished by incorporating existing data from the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) into the CMAPI program in a static environment. The other …

Use Of Climatology To Predict Maximum Wind Speeds At The Kennedy Space Center And Cape Canaveral Air Station, Lisa K. Coleman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis uses statistical analysis to forecast the probability of meeting or exceeding the maximum allowable wind speeds for each of the launch pads at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). Wind data were collected from the Weather Information Network Display System (WINDS), a collection of 47 meteorological towers located throughout KSC and CCAS, over a period of five winters. A Fortran program was written to calculate conditional probabilities of meeting or exceeding a given threshold speed during eight consecutive one-hour periods, using the current wind direction and peak wind speed as inputs. Forecast probabilities …

Techniques For Forecasting The Cessation Of Lightning At Cape Canaveral Air Station And The Kennedy Space Center, Michael W. Holmes

Theses and Dissertations

The focus of this research effort is directed toward identifying new methods of forecasting the cessation of lightning along the Central Atlantic Coast of Florida. Cloud-to-ground lightning flashes place Air Force (AF) personnel and assets at risk almost daily at this location. Providing a more accurate method of forecasting the cessation of lightning would allow for safer and more efficient execution of AF operations. A data set consisting of 40 thunderstorm cases was identified within a 90 nautical miles (nmi) region surrounding the Melbourne, Florida WSR-88D (KMLB) site. Each case falls between the months of May and September and the …

Data Warehouse Techniques To Support Global On-Demand Weather Forecast Metrics, Meriellen C. Joga

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots and other operators make crucial mission planning decisions based on weather forecasts; therefore, the ability to forecast the weather accurately is a critical issue to Air Force Weather (AFW) and its customers. The goal of this research is to provide Air Force Weather with a methodology to automate statistical data analysis for the purpose of providing on-demand metrics. A data warehousing methodology is developed and applied to the weather metrics problem in order to present an option that will facilitate on-demand metrics. On-line analytical processing (OLAP) and data mining solutions are also discussed.

An Intelligent User Interface To Support Air Force Weather Product Generation And Automated Metrics, Darryl N. Leon

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots require dependable weather reports so they may avoid unsafe flying conditions. In order to better gauge the accuracy of its weather products, Air Force Weather has established the requirement for an Air Force-wide automated weather metrics program. Under the guidelines for this program, forecasts will automatically be compared to observed weather to determine their accuracy. Statistics will be collected in the hopes of determining forecast error trends that can be corrected through education and training. In order for the statistical data produced by such a program to draw reliable conclusions about forecast accuracy, however, the correct format …

Timing Of Thunderstorm Occurrence For Cape Canaveral, Florida, Thomas G. Renwick

Theses and Dissertations

This research is concerned with improving an existing algorithm to accurately forecast thunderstorm starting times for Cape Canaveral, Florida. This was accomplished by investigating different linear regression techniques than those used in the existing algorithm. The result is three new thunderstorm start time algorithms. The forecast start times of these new algorithms were then compared to actual thunderstorm start times to determine which method produced the most accurate results. The average thunderstorm starting time was also calculated from the data. This time was also compared to actual thunderstorm starting time. Upon examination of the various start times produced, it was …

Sensitivity Studies On A Limited Area Mesoscale Model: An Examination Of Lateral Boundary Placement, Grid Resolution And Nesting Type, Robert A. Stenger

Theses and Dissertations

With the advances of computer technology in recent years, limited area mesoscale models are being used to produce operational forecasts on a broader scale worldwide than ever before. The past limitations of computational resources have caused previous research efforts to focus more on model physics, thus creating a gap in the number of sensitivity studies conducted on these models. This research is intended to bridge a gap in the apparent paucity of sensitivity studies on the limited area model (LAM). The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 was utilized to conduct sensitivity studies on lateral boundary …

A Study Of Morning Radiation Fog Formation, Jimmie L. Trigg Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on developing a linear regression formula that forecasters in the Midwest can use to accurately anticipate the formation of radiation fog. This was accomplished in three stages. First a study of the surface and upper air parameters and processes required to develop radiation fog were identified and explored. Next, a linear regression technique was applied to the 23 parameters identified. The top four indicators were then reprocessed and a new linear regression equation was developed. Finally, the new regression equation was compared to an existing fog forecasting technique. The existing forecast technique selected was the 2nd Weather …

A 3d Display System For Lightning Detection And Ranging (Ldar) Data, Michael W. Darwin

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning detection is an essential part of safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. In order to meet the unique needs of launching space vehicles in the thunderstorm prone Florida environment, Cape Canaveral has the only operational three- dimensional (3D) lightning detection network in the world, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. Although lightning activity is detected in three dimensions, the current LDAR display, developed 20 years ago, is two-dimensional. This thesis uses modern three-dimensional graphics, object-oriented software design, and innovative visualization techniques to develop a 3D visualization application for LDAR data.

Emergency Response Canadian Pacific Railway Canadian Main Line, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd, Michael J. Loehr, Robert W. Badger, Robert P. Conroy, Clive H. Mackay

Barry A. Palynchuk PhD

In late June 1998, a major storm event occurred in the Adirondack Mountains in the vicinity of Keeseville, New York about 150 miles north of Albany. This storm resulted in unprecedented damage to the Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) Canadian Mainline along the shores of Lake Champlain. The storm caused 14 major embankment failures and washouts, numerous minor failures, severe bridge foundation scour and a major mainline derailment.