Meteorology Commons^™

A Climatology Of Mesoscale Airmasses With High Theta-E, Charles J. Kropiewnicki

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

A Mesoscale Airmass with High Theta-E (MAHTE) is a narrow region of larger theta-e located on the cool side of an airmass boundary. MAHTEs typically possesses higher CAPE than the warm side of the boundary, creating a more favorable environment for severe convection. MAHTEs can also be characterized by larger low-level shear and lower LCLs and may also have a propensity for supporting tornadogenesis. The majority of MAHTE research to date has been comprised of case studies, and the prevalence of MAHTEs is not well understood. This project fills that knowledge gap by creating a climatology of MAHTE occurrence. This …

An Empirical Examination Of The Environmental Variability That Impacted Supercell Evolution, Longevity, And Severe Weather Production On 22 May 2019 In Oklahoma, Kyle D. Pittman

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Mesoscale environmental heterogeneity can have significant impacts on thunderstorm organization, evolution, longevity, and severe weather production. This study examines the 22 May 2019 thunderstorm event in Oklahoma, where a relatively broad area of strong instability and vertical wind shear existed along a synoptic boundary and in the open warm sector that would seem to support long-lived supercells and tornadoes. There were two particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watches issued during the event, but few severe reports and no tornadoes formed in the watch that covered the southwestern portion of the state. Several tornadic supercells and many more severe reports occurred …

Radar Signatures In Tropical Cyclone Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Michaela Wood

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Tropical cyclones (TCs) contain highly-sheared environments that are conducive for supercell thunderstorms. These TC supercells sometimes produce tornadoes, often with little warning. Given the often-close proximity of tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells, environments may not be well-distinguished, pointing to the potential value of radar observations. In this study, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of a sample of TC supercells are examined in the context of known supercell structure and microphysics. Tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells are compared with their midlatitude counterparts, and the environments and characteristic structure of these storms are shown to be notably different. An attempt is made to distinguish …

The Influence Of Complex Coastlines On The Sea Breeze And Convection Initiation In Coastal North Carolina, Logan Howard, Adam L. Houston

Honors Theses

The sea breeze is a common phenomenon in coastal regions around the world. Their development and propagation can be treated as a density current. It is well known that many factors influence density current propagation, including wind. Depending on the orientation, the wind speed and shear can enhance or inhibit the development of the sea breeze. In places like eastern North Carolina, complex coastal geography can create river and sound breezes that, upon collision, have the potential to initiate thunderstorms. Using Cloud Model 1, simulations were conducted to model the behavior of the sea breezes in eastern North Carolina and …

¿Aviso O Alerta? Developing Effective, Inclusive, And Consistent Watch And Warning Translations For U.S. Spanish Speakers, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, América R. Gaviria Pabón, Joseph T. Ripberger, Abby Bitterman, Jonathan B. Thornton, Mackenzie J. Krocak, Sean R. Ernst, Estilita Cassiani Obeso, John Lipski

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Spanish-speaking populations in the United States are more vulnerable in disaster contexts due to inequities, such as language barriers, that prevent them from receiving life-saving information. For the past couple of decades, governmental organizations have addressed these issues by translating weather watches, warnings, and advisories into Spanish. Previous studies suggest that these Spanish translations do not communicate the same level of urgency as their English counterparts. To identify whether these translated products result in inequities between English and Spanish speaker reception and comprehension of forecast information, we asked a representative sample of U.S. English (n = 1,550) and Spanish (n …

Impacts Of Physical Parameterization Schemes And Soil Moisture Initialization On Boundary Layer Evolution In The Weather Research And Forecasting (Wrf) Model, Grace Cutting

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have become a necessary addition to the atmospheric research community over the last several decades, and atmospheric modeling has been used internationally for numerous operational and research purposes. NWP models contain a vast number of combinations of physical and dynamical parameterization schemes; however, they are not always accurate in forecasting weather phenomena at a particular location, as different combinations of parameterization schemes represent differing conditions. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were run to explore which of the commonly used planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes best represented upper-air data (as well as PBL evolution) …

Using Remote And In Situ Observations From Torus To Investigate A Preexisting Airmass Boundary And Its Influence On A Tornadic Supercell On 28 May 2019, Kristen Axon

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

During the 2019 field phase of Targeted Observation by Radars and UAS of Supercells (TORUS), a preexisting airmass boundary was sampled on 28 May 2019 in north-central Kansas in close proximity to a tornadic supercell. This work hypothesized that the preexisting airmass boundary was associated with a mesoscale air mass with high theta-E (MAHTE) that favorably interacted with the tornadic supercell to increase the likelihood of tornadogenesis. Observations from TORUS including mobile mesonets, unoccupied aerial vehicles, soundings, and ground-based mobile radar were used along with GOES-16 visible satellite imagery, Kansas mesonet surface stations, and KUEX WSR-88D data to investigate this …

An Investigation Of Water Obstructions And Related Weather Conditions For Nebraska Roadways, Logan Bundy

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Roadway resilience across the 10,000 miles of road and 3,500 bridges in Nebraska is critical to the economic success of production and logistics. In a state where historical flooding scenarios, such as the one in March 2019 that caused $150 million in damage, could potentially be increasing, it has become essential to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of high-frequency water obstruction areas on roadways. Using Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT) historical water obstruction data from June 2016 through August 2021, statistical and spatial analyses were conducted to quantify the relationship between water obstructions and their associated meteorological conditions, and …

Case Studies Of Alberta Clipper Systems And The Impacts On Winter Weather Road Maintenance, Cameron Wunderlin

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Winter weather can cause profound impacts to a variety of economic sectors in the mid-latitudes. In the Great Plains of North America, one sector that is highly impacted by winter weather is road transportation. The burdens to road transportation caused by winter weather have led to the adoption of a Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) by the Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT). Using both observational and numerical weather model data, NDOT-MDSS generates both winter weather forecasts and winter road maintenance recommendations. Little is known about how well NDOT-MDSS is forecasting conditions for different winter weather events. Using a case study …

Hazardous Weather Communication En Español: Challenges, Current Resources, And Future Practices, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, Orlando Bermúdez, Krizia Negrón-Hernández, John Lipski, Elizabeth Leitman, Kodi Berry

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

According to recent Census data, the Hispanic or Latino population represents nearly 1 in 5 Americans today, where 71.1% of these individuals speak Spanish at home. Despite increased efforts among the weather enterprise, establishing effective risk communication strategies for Spanish-speaking populations has been an uphill battle. No frameworks exist for translating weather information into the Spanish language, nor are there collective solutions that address this problem within the weather world. The objective of this article is threefold. First, the current translation issue in Spanish is highlighted. Through research conducted at the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, situations are revealed where regional …

A Model-Based Exploratory Study Of Sulfur Dioxide Dispersions From Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations In The Southeastern United States, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Philip J. Silva, Nanh Lovanh, Joshua D. Durkee, John Loughrin

HPRCC Personnel Publications

In the Southeastern U. S. there are Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) that emit a variety of gases, including SO₂. Sulfur is emitted as reduced sulfur compounds and can react in the atmosphere to produce SO₂. It is expected that the concentra­tion and spread of SO₂ emissions from these sources would differ between wet and dry periods. In this research, SO₂ emissions from locations representing CAFOs and its dispersion over the south­eastern U.S. were simulated through sensitivity experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF- Chem) model. Simulations were performed for dry periods and …

Bioscatter Transport By Tropical Cyclones: Insights From 10 Years In The Atlantic Basin, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can transport birds and insects near their center of circulation. In this study, we examined the maximum altitude, area and density of the radar-derived bioscatter signature across a set of 42 TC centers of circulation sampled from 2011 to 2020. All TC events contained at least one time when a bioscatter signature was present. More intense hurricanes with closed eyes typically had taller and denser bioscatter signatures, and sometimes larger areas dominated by bioscatter. This indicated a larger number of organisms within the circulation of more intense hurricanes, supporting the speculation that those storms were most likely …

Statement Of World Aquatic Scientific Societies On The Need To Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based On Scientific Evidence [Dear Colleague Letter], Scott A. Bonar, Brian R. Murphy, Leanne H. Roulson, Jesse T. Trushenski, Douglas J. Austen, Michael Edward Douglas

United States Fish and Wildlife: Staff Publications

Dear Colleague Letter from the American Fisheries Society to fellow scientific societies, July 25, 2020, about the urgent need for responsive collective action to mitigate impending radical climate change. Includes the Statement of World Aquatic Scientific Societies on the Need to Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based on Scientific Evidence, emphasizing the importance of aquatic ecosystems. Includes extensive citations and notes.

"Water is the most important natural resource on Earth as it is vital for life. Aquatic ecosystems, freshwater or marine, provide multiple benefits to human society, such as provisioning of oxygen, food, drinking water, genetic resources; regulation …

A Hydrometeorological Assessment Of The Historic 2019 Flood Of Nebraska, Iowa, And South Dakota, Paul Xavier Flanagan, Rezaul Mahmood, Natalie Umphlett, Erin M.K. Haacker, Chittaranjan Ray, Bill Sorensen, Martha Shulski, Crystal J. Stiles, David Pearson, Paul Fajman

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During early 2019, a series of events set the stage for devastating floods in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. When the floodwaters hit, dams and levees failed, cutting off towns, while destroying roads, bridges, and rail lines, further exacerbating the crisis. Lives were lost and thousands of cattle were stranded. Estimates indicate that the cost of the flooding has topped $3 billion as of August 2019, with this number expected to rise.

After a warm and wet start to winter, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota endured anomalously low temperatures and record-breaking snowfall. By March …

What Is The U.S. Drought Monitor?, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

The USDA uses the map as a trigger for programs that help agricultural producers recover from drought and other natural disasters:

Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)

Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm Raised Fish Program (ELAP)

Fast-Track Secretarial Disaster Declarations

Emergency Loans Program

The U.S. Drought Monitor Network: Improving Drought Early Warning, The U.S. Drought Monitor Network

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

WHAT IS THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NETWORK?

WHO ARE THE OBSERVERS?

WHAT BENEFITS?

The network in action

HOW DOES IT WORK?

WHO CREATES THE MAP?

Building Adaptive Capacity In Tribal Communities Of The Missouri River Basin To Manage Drought And Climate Extremes: A Case Study From The Wind River Indian Reservation, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie Umphlett, Mitch Cottenoir

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Native American peoples of the Northern and Central Plains have long endured harsh climate conditions, such as floods and droughts, and they possess valuable traditional knowledges that have enhanced their resilience to these extreme events. However, in recent times, limited capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate combined with a lack of resources have increased tribes’ vulnerability to climate extremes and their associated impacts. In response, a number of projects have been developed to assist tribes with their self-identified climate- and drought-related needs, particularly in the context of on-reservation decision-making. In this case study, we present an engagement strategy …

A Design For A Sustained Assessment Of Climate Forcing And Feedbacks Related To Land Use And Land Cover Change, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood

HPRCC Personnel Publications

L and use and land cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in the climate system. Many studies have documented the impacts of LULCC on local, regional, and global climate. The National Climate Assessment Report (Melillo et al. 2014) identifies LULCC as a “cross cutting” issue of future climate change studies. This report, and the previous U.S. Climate Change Science Program strategic plan (2003), noted that land use and land cover (LULC) and its feedback is an important source of uncertainty within the climate system (Melillo et al. 2014). As a result, the report calls for a better understanding of …

Assessing Agricultural Risk Management Using Historic Crop Insurance Loss Data Over The Ogallala Aquifer, Julian Reyes, Emile Elias, Erin M.K. Haacker, Amy Kremen, Lauren Parker, Caitlin Rottler

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Much of the agricultural production in the Ogallala Aquifer region relies on groundwater for irrigation. In addition to declining water levels, weather and climate-driven events affect crop yields and revenues. Crop insurance serves as a risk management tool to mitigate these perils. Here, we seek to understand what long-term crop insurance loss data can tell us about agricultural risk management in the Ogallala. We assess patterns and trends in crop insurance loss data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency. Indemnities, or insurance payments, totaled $22 billion from 1989–2017 for the 161 counties that overlie the Ogallala Aquifer. …

Droughtscape- 2019 Winter, Cory Matteson

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the Director.......... 2

4th quarter climate summary......... 3

2019 year in review summary.......... 5

4th quarter drought impact summary.......... 7

2019 drought impact summary..........9

New form helps ‘see more’ drought............ 11

Landscape photographers invited to submit photos............ 12

Helping Central and South America planning........... 13 Database includes more drought planning.......... 14

Umphlett Qci Dec 2019, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Agriculture

Energy

Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

Umphlett Qci Sept 2019, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Forage Production

Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

A Technical Overview Of The Kentucky Mesonet, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Stuart Foster, Andrew Quilligan

HPRCC Personnel Publications

The Kentucky Mesonet is a research-grade weather and climate observing network with redundant sensors that monitors the near-surface atmosphere at 71 locations across Kentucky. The network measures temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and wind speed and direction every 5 min, with soil moisture and soil temperature measured every 30 min. In addition, it operates a camera at selected locations. All observations are transmitted via cellular modem every 5 min and become available to the general public through the World Wide Web within seconds after arrival at Kentucky Mesonet’s Network Operations Center. In between arriving at the IT …

Measurement And Characterization Of Infrasound From A Tornado Producing Storm, Brian R. Elbing, Christopher E. Petrin, Matthew Van Den Broeke

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

A hail-producing supercell on 11 May 2017 produced a small tornado near Perkins, Oklahoma (35.97, –97.04) at 2013 UTC. Two infrasound microphones with a 59-m separation and a regional Doppler radar station were located 18.7 and 70 km from the tornado, respectively. Elevated infrasound levels were observed starting 7min before the verified tornado. Infrasound data below ~5Hz was contaminated with wind noise, but in the 5–50 Hz band the infrasound was independent of wind speed with a bearing angle that was consistent with the movement of the storm core that produced the tornado. During the tornado, a 75 dB peak …

An Observational Study Of Winter Weather-Related Traffic Crashes In Nebraska, Jacob Petr

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The responsibilities of meteorologists have evolved over time from simply providing a forecast to needing to also understand how those predictions will impact society and then communicating those risks in a clear, concise, and consistent manner. Increased motor vehicle crash numbers due to adverse weather conditions represent one such impact worthy of further study. Snowfall, in particular, significantly increases the overall risk of a crash, which can result in extensive property damage, severe injuries, and even loss of life.This project seeks to supplement traffic crash information in Nebraska by assessing how snowfall impacts crashes across the state. Crash data were …

Investigation Of Grace-Derived Information On Forest Drought Stress Across The Contiguous Us, Beichen Zhang

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This research derives z-score monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies and z-score monthly root zone soil moisture (RZSM) anomalies from products of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation (GRACE-DA). Z-score monthly GWS and RZSM anomalies are compared to two drought indicators: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the usefulness of GRACE-DA information to detect drought conditions at tree-ring sites. This study also compares z-score monthly GWS and RZSM anomalies with the Tree Ring Standardized Growth Index (TRSGI) that is resampled by bootstrapping to investigate the capability of monitoring forest drought stress. Finally, this research uses …

Droughtscape- 2019 Fall, Cory Matteson

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the Director........ 2

Quarterly drought summary........ 3

Quarterly drought impacts........ 6

Ranchers delayed response to drought....... 8

Drought Monitor celebrates 20 years............ 9

Drought Monitor state impact tables........... 11

Directorcontributesto U.N.droughtproject........... 12

Updated Drought Risk Atlas........... 13

New fact sheet lists recovery resources........... 14

Droughtscape- 2019 Summer, Cory Matteson

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the Director.......... 2

Quarterly drought summary........... 3

Quarterly drought impacts.......... 5

NDMC welcomes African visitors.......... 7

Ready for Drought game debuts............ 8

U.S. Virgin Islands added to USDM.......... 9

Australian programmer visits NDMC......... 10

Upcoming events......... 10

Partnerships with NDMC extended............ 11

Umphlett Qci June 2019, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Impacts to Cattle

Damage to Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

Droughtscape- Spring 2019, Cory Matteson

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director............... 2

Wet and cool conditions bring drought relief to the West................ 3

Notable numbers from Q1.................. 5

Drought impact summary, 1st quarter 2019................ 6

New research examines drought effects on state recreation areas................ 8

At Ethiopian space science workshop, NDMC climatologist sees promise in preparing for drought.......... 9

U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands now part of U.S. Drought Monitor.............. 11

Water conservation tips for drought, flood and other disasters.............. 12

Upcoming events..............13