Meteorology Commons^™

Nashville-Basin Tornadoes: Using Storm Types To Elucidate The Local Climatology And Forecasting Challenges, Morgan Steckler, Kelsey Ellis

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Early 3 March 2020 was a devastating night for many middle Tennessee residents. A strong EF-3 tornado tore through Nashville at 65 mph, and another EF-4 killed 18 in Baxter and Cookeville alone. Residents of the Southeastern United States are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes. This study aims to better understand local forecasting challenges by looking at the types of storms that produce tornadoes. Storm types, also known as convective modes, divide tornado-producing storms into categories by length, shape, multiplicity, and intensity. Distinguishing storms by these modes allows for a broader understanding of their occurrences and impacts. This study specifically evaluates …

Reveal Wind Loading Of Tornadoes And Hurricanes On Civil Structures Towards Hazard-Resistant Design, Ryan Honerkamp

Doctoral Dissertations

"Extreme winds impacting civil structures lead to death and destruction in all regions of the world. Specifically, tornadoes and hurricanes impact communities with severe devastation. On average, 1200 tornadoes occur in the United States every year. Tornadoes occur predominantly in the Central and Southeastern United States, accounting for an annual $1 billion in economic losses, 1500 injuries, and 90 deaths. The Joplin, MO Tornado in 2011 killed 161 people, injured more than 1000, destroyed more than 8000 structures, and caused $2.8 billion of property loss. Hurricanes occur predominantly on the United States East coast regions and along the coast of …

Environmental Discriminators For Significant Tornadoes And Hail In The U.S. Using Proximity Soundings, Cody Michael Converse

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Over the last 50 years, the United States has experienced an increase in severe storm events that produced $1 billion in damages or greater. Much of this loss is attributed to significant tornadoes and hail associated with deep, moist convection. Improving forecasts for these significant events assist in mitigating the impacts of these events. Previous work has identified statistically significant environmental parameters associated with severe thunderstorms, but more research is needed in identifying statistically significant ingredients associated with environments that produce significant tornadoes and hail.

This thesis aims to answer the following question: “Can diagnostics commonly used to forecast for …

Incorporating Uh Occurrence Time To Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities, Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Israel Jirak, Scott R. Dembek

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when UH occurrence is a condition for tornado probability generation, false alarm areas can occur from UH swaths associated with nocturnal mesoscale convective systems, which climatologically produce fewer tornadoes than RM supercells. This study incorporates UH timing information with the forecast near-storm significant tornado parameter (STP) to calibrate the forecast tornado probability. To generate the probabilistic forecasts, three sets of observed climatological tornado frequencies given an RM supercell and STP …

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Theses

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

Impact Of Past Experiences With Tornadoes On Future Decisions In Nebraska, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE Research Products

The National Weather Service (NWS) advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is to determine how the number of sources and what …

Using Proxy Records To Document Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Cyclones From 1820-1915, Jordan V. Pino, Robert V. Rohli, Kristine L. Delong, Grant L. Harley, Jill C. Trepanier

Faculty Publications

Observations of pre-1950 tropical cyclones are sparse due to observational limitations; therefore, the hurricane database HURDAT2 (1851–present) maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may be incomplete. Here we provide additional documentation for HURDAT2 from historical United States Army fort records (1820–1915) and other archived documents for 28 landfalling tropical cyclones, 20 of which are included in HURDAT2, along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. One event that occurred in May 1863 is not currently documented in the HURDAT2 database but has been noted in other studies. We identify seven tropical cyclones that occurred before 1851, three of which …

Tornado Fatalities: An In-Depth Look At Physical And Societal Influences, Heather Joann Key

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to model and determine significant predictors of tornado death index values, and to investigate these significant predictors and what makes people vulnerable to tornado fatalities through expert interviews. This study also provides an understanding of the study participant’s perceptions of their county’s vulnerability to tornado fatality and demonstrates a true integration of methods and fields by studying geographic, meteorological, and sociological phenomena by use of quantitative and qualitative methods. The study consists of two parts: 1) A quantitative exploration of variables hypothesized to predict Tornado Death Index (TDI) values, 2) A qualitative investigation to …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Cox, Brittany (Fa 763), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

FA Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Folklife Archives Project 763. Paper titled “Haunted Places in Brandenburg, Kentucky” written by Brittany Cox for a folk studies class at Western Kentucky University. Paper includes information about haunted locations in Brandenburg, Meade County, Kentucky.

Woolfolk, Dorothy (Gregory) (Sc 713), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "additional files" below) for Manuscripts Small Collection 713. Letter written to Marjorie Clagett, Bowling Green, Kentucky, from Dorothy (Gregory) Woolfolk, Brandenburg, Meade County, Kentucky, in which she describes the tornado that devastated the town on 3 April 1974.

A Recommendation For An Enhanced Fujita Scale (Ef-Scale)

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Background

National Weather Service (NWS) personnel who are responsible for rating tornadoes have expressed frustrations in applying the Fujita Scale in a consistent and accurate manner. Weak links in a structural system or a slow-moving storm sometimes lead to an overrating of a tornado event. Several technical articles suggest that wind speeds associated with some descriptions of damage are too high. For example, a 260 mph wind speed is not required to completely destroy a well constructed house and blow away the debris. The damage occurs at significantly lower wind speeds. Minor et al. (1977) and Phan and Simiu (2003) …

Evolution Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Discharges In Tornadic Thunderstorms, Wendy L. Seaman

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force operations are directly impacted by weather on a daily basis. Erroneous forecasts negatively impact mission readiness and consequently cost the government time, in terms of wasted man-hours, and money. Advanced forecast lead-time could make a difference to minimize loss to both USAF personnel and assets. This study examined lightning data from 64 storm events from 1995-2000 in search of unique lightning signatures indicative of tornadic activity. Overall flash rates, percentage of positive flashes, positive and negative peak currents and multiplicity for each case were separated into two categories based on tornado intensity and season of occurrence. Based on …

Thunderstorms And Tornadoes Of February 1, 1955, Jean T. Lee

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

The purpose of this paper is to describe and illustrate some of the features that are of particular interest in the forecasting of one of the most death-dealing series of convective storms of the 1950s that occurred during the afternoon and evening of February 1, 1955. This series of severe storms included tornadoes, destructive winds, hail, and heavy rain that first struck near Marianata, Arkansas, then roared through Commerce Landing, Mississippi and northern Mississippi. then moved on to near Huntsville, Alabama.

Includes features at the surface, at 850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb, and upper air conditions, along with …

Tornadoes And Cyclones, T. L. Rosser

Journal of the Minnesota Academy of Science

No abstract provided.