Meteorology Commons^™

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

Smart Pireps: Leveraging Technology To Simplify Pilot Weather Reporting In General Aviation, Emma Hellwege

Honors Projects

This honors project examines how emerging aviation technologies can support or automate components of Pilot Weather Reports (PIREPs) to improve reporting accuracy, reduce pilot workload, and increase participation within the general aviation (GA) community. PIREPs provide essential real-time weather observations—such as turbulence, icing, and visibility—that supplement automated systems and enhance situational awareness for pilots, air traffic control, and meteorologists. However, reports are vastly underutilized due to workload constraints, inconsistent training, voice-only submission methods, and technological disparities across the GA fleet.

Through a structured analysis of federal aviation documentation, sensor capabilities, human factors research, and recent advancements in automation, this study …

Evaluating Weather Effects On Sortie Generation Using Discrete Event Simulation, Markus Case

Theses and Dissertations

United States Air Force (USAF) operations rely on sortie generation, a complex system involving aircraft maintenance, operational planning, munitions, security forces, and aircrew. Failures in any of these areas can jeopardize a mission, and extreme weather events such as lightning, high winds, and snow further complicate operations. This thesis examines the impact of extreme weather on sortie generation, focusing on developing a data-driven discrete-event simulation (DES) to predict generation timelines and identify high-risk areas. The model allows users to adjust key inputs, including the month, number of aircraft, processing times, and personnel/equipment availability. By simulating real-world conditions, the model helps …

Machine Learning - Hail Awareness Spatial Analysis Toolkit (Hasat), Haoruo Fu, Joseph P. Hupy, Chien-Tsung Lu, Zhenglei Ji

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a sophisticated network of air traffic control, navigation, and communication systems that play a critical role in ensuring the safe and efficient flow of air traffic across the United States. However, the occurrence of severe weather conditions, particularly hailstorms, poses a significant threat to flight safety within the NAS. To mitigate the risks associated with hail, aviation organizations have implemented a range of safety measures. This study utilized Esri’s ArcGIS as a mapping software to conduct a geospatial analysis of the impact of severe weather, particularly hail, on the NAS. The Hail Awareness Spatial …

Impact Of Weather Factors On Airport Arrival Rates: Application Of Machine Learning In Air Transportation, Robert W. Maxson, Dothang Truong, Woojin Choi

Publications

Weather is responsible for approximately 70% of air transportation delays in the National Airspace System, and delays resulting from convective weather alone cost airlines and passengers millions of dollars each year due to delays that could be avoided. This research sought to establish relationships between environmental variables and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered from six out of ten airports using various machine learning methods within an overarching data mining protocol, and the developed models were tested using historical data.

Validated Question Bank For Assessing Pilot Knowledge Of Aviation Weather Appendix: Weather Product Interpretation Questions, Robert Thomas, Cassandra Dommingo, John Kleber, Jackie Mcsorely, Amber Cole, Thomas Guinn, Elizabeth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

This appendix supplements the Thomas et al. (2022) paper titled “Validated Question Bank for Assessing Pilot Knowledge of Aviation Weather ” which validates a set of weather product interpretation questions that can be used to measure a pilot’s understanding of weather. The assessment consists of 15 weather product interpretation topics which can be administered as a single 65-question survey or, as in the Thomas et al. (2022) study, two assessments of 33 and 32 questions each separated by topic. The set of 65 questions can be found in this appendix along with a table which demonstrates how to separate the …

Applying Human Factors Heuristic Evaluation Tools To Improve Aviation Weather Displays: A Mismatch, John Kleber, Paige Lawton, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

The evaluation of current Heuristic Evaluation Tools for use in assessing Aviation Weather Displays.

Aviation Human-In-The-Loop Simulation: Best Practices For Subjective Performance Measurement, John Kleber, Beth Blickensderfer

Aviation Weather Training Research

Subjective performance measurements are a useful tool for researchers and instructors to evaluate tasks that are difficult to quantify with objective data pulled from a simulator or the physiological data of pilots. Subjective performance measurements are non-intrusive measures typically conducted by human raters. Some recommendations for utilizing subjective measures include reducing the workload of the human raters, concealing the aim of the experiment from participants, utilizing multiple raters to evaluate each participant, providing raters with proper training, developing error-resistant rater forms and, including both subjective and objective measures when possible.

An Exploratory Study Of General Aviation Visual To Instrument Meteorological Condition Contextual Factors, James Harry Hartman Iii

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The purpose of this dissertation was to bridge the existing literature gap of outdated contextual factor (CF) research through examination and determination of current General Aviation (GA) Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 91 visual flight rules (VFR)-into-instrument meteorological condition (IMC) contextual factors. Contextual factors are a multifaceted arrangement of pertinent events or occurrences contributing to pilot accidents in weather-related decision-making errors. A total of 46 contextual factors were identified and examined from the reviewed research literature. The study examined and determined the presence of the 46 contextual factors, frequencies, and manifestations in the GA VFR-into-IMC Aviation Accident …

An Aviation Weather Preflight Decision Support Tool To Improve Ga Pilots' Preflight And Inflight Performance, Jayde M. King

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Low hour, inexperienced General Aviation (GA) pilots account for the majority of weather-related incidents, which often result in fatalities. Previous research identifies poor preflight planning practices and a lack of aviation weather knowledge as key contributing factors to the high novice private pilot accident and fatality rate. Research invested into resolving these issues often attempt to introduce new inflight weather technology to assist pilots with weather avoidance. However, these interventions usually result in pilots using the information to strategically navigate closer to degraded weather conditions (Beringer & Ball, 2004; Burgess & Thomas, 2004). Therefore, the purpose of this study was …

Conceptual Design Of A South Pole Carrier Pigeon Uav, Kendrick M. Dlima

Master's Theses

Currently, the South Pole has a large data problem. It is estimated that 1.2 TB of data is being produced every day, but less than 500 GB of that data is being uploaded via aging satellites to researchers in other parts of the world. This requires those at the South Pole to analyze the data and carefully select the parts to send, possibly missing out on vital scientific information. The South Pole Carrier Pigeon will look to bridge this data gap.

The Carrier Pigeon will be a small unmanned aerial vehicle that will carry a 30 TB solid-state hard drive …

Assessing If Motivation Impacts General Aviation Pilots’ Persistence In Varying Weather Conditions, Sabrina Woods

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Continued flight under visual flight rules into instrument meteorological conditions is the predominant cause for fatal accidents by percentage, for general aviation aircraft operations. It is possible that a pilot’s motivation or reason for flying will override other safer, more logical courses of action when a hazard presents itself. The decision appears to stem from a willingness to persist in a course of action despite factors that indicate an alternate and safer course is warranted. This research addresses what is currently presumed about the decision to continue flying under visual flight rules into instrument conditions and marries those ideas with …

A Proposed Taxonomy For General Aviation Pilot Weather Education And Training, John M. Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Jayde M. King, Beth Blickensderfer, Robert Thomas, Yolanda Ortiz

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

As General Aviation (GA) safety continues to remain a focus of the aviation community, GA pilot weather education and training continues to be an active area of interest within the research community. This study introduces a taxonomy for organizing GA pilot weather education and training materials that was originally conceived as part of the FAA’s Weather Technology In the Cockpit research program. The taxonomy is built upon three main knowledge categories, or tiers:1) Weather Phenomena (which includes hazards); 2) Weather Hazard Products; and 3) Weather Hazard Product Sources and their Application. The concept behind the categorization is to link knowledge …

How Airport Construction Will Evolve With The Increased Effects Of Climate Change, Xavier M. Ashley

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This report addressed the effects rising global temperatures resulting from climate change have had on flight operations in their entirety. The research objective was to discover what methods could enhance climate adaptation in airport construction, as higher mean-surface temperatures have an increasingly negative effect on aircraft performance. The findings would primarily be of interest to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Primary Office presiding over the planning and development of airports. Overall, the report provided a comprehensive analysis of global warming’s effects on aviation, including the implications of degraded aircraft performance and sea-level rise for coastal airports. Additionally, it examined comparative …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation : Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Current Study
• Trends
• Summary
• Conclusion

Exploring Perceived Usability And Interpretability Of Aviation Weather Products Among Ga Pilots, Jackie Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Results
• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Efficacy Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program In Ceiling Flight Category Forecasts, Douglas D. Boyd, Thomas A. Guinn

Publications

(1) Background: Flying in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carries an elevated risk of fatal outcome for general aviation (GA) pilots. For the typical GA flight, aerodrome-specific forecasts (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF), Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP)) assist the airman in pre-determining whether a flight can be safely undertaken. While LAMP forecasts are more prevalent at GA-frequented aerodromes, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommends that this tool be used as supplementary to the TAF only. Herein, the predictive accuracy of LAMP for ceiling flight categories of visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) was determined. (2) Methods: …

Combined Report: Aviation Weather Knowledge Assessment & General Aviation (Ga) Pilots’ Interpretation Of Weather Products, Beth Blickensderfer, John Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas, Jennifer E. Thropp, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Jessica Cruit, Nicholas Defilippis, Krijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley, John Kleber

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Prior research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts and skill at interpreting aviation weather displays. Therefore, the purpose of the current project was to develop and validate a comprehensive set of aviation weather knowledge and interpretation multiple-choice questions, and in turn, to use the questions to assess pilot understanding of aviation weather concepts and displays. An interdisciplinary research team that included two meteorologists, one Gold Seal Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI), a human factors psychologist, and several human factors graduate students performed this research.

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic

Aviation Department Publications

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation: Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

As a result of advances in weather forecasting and technology, today’s General Aviation (GA) pilots have access to a wealth of aviation weather information. During pre-flight planning, GA pilots may access weather radar images, satellite pictures, winds, and forecast maps. During flight, pilots can access in-cockpit weather displays, as well as, handheld portable weather devices. Despite the increasing advancement and accessibility of weather displays, there is limited research addressing the interpretability of both in-cockpit and preflight weather displays. This is particularly concerning considering that preflight planning and poor product interpretability have been cited as possible contributing factors for GA weather …

Usability Analysis Of Convective Sigmets, Jackie Mcsorley, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Methods
• Results

○ Interface Analysis: System Usability Scale

○ Workload Analysis: NASA-TLX

• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Preflight Weather Worksheet, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Weather Training Modules

Preflight Weather Worksheet

• Big Picture
• Hazards
• Visibility

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

On Atmospheric Lapse Rates, Nihad E. Daidzic

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

We have derived and summarized and most important atmospheric temperature lapse rates. ALRs essentially govern vertical atmospheric air stability and creation of some cloud types. The sensitivity analysis of various atmospheric lapse rates and their dependence on actual ideal-gas air properties and gravitational attraction was conducted for the first time to the best of our knowledge. SALR, which has DALR as the upper asymptote, showed steepest decrease at around 9 degrees Celsius then flattening out and apparently approaching another asymptotic solution which has not been investigated as it falls outside of the terrestrial temperature range. ISA lapse rates are adopted …

Interpreting Aviation Weather Products: Follow-Up Study With Aopa Members, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas A. Guinn, Thomas Bob, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nick Defilippis, Quirijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Purpose

• Use the questions we developed in Phase I
• Include pilots that are more representative of GA (age, flight hours/experience); Collaborate with AOPA
• Examine: Knowledge about aviation weather products; Differences between levels of flight certificate and/or ratings

Assessing Ga Pilots' Preflight Weather Planning Mental Models, Yolanda Ortiz, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas A. Guinn

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Purpose, To assess GA Pilots' ability to:

• Obtain the Appropriate Weather Information
• Interpret the Data
• Apply the Information to a Given Flight Route

Aviation Weather Education: Challenges Using Current Faa Guidance, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas

Aviation Weather Training Research

Observed Challenges

• Incorrect product information
• Guidance not keeping pace with new products
• Multiple formats of same product
• Potentially unnecessary information
• Missing product information
• Limited focus on interpretation

Challenges For Flight Instructors Teaching Weather Information, Robert Thomas, Thomas A. Guinn

Aviation Weather Training Research

• Flight Instructors face a challenge when teaching/learning weather information
• Multiple overlapping resources for aviation weather
• AC takes longer timeframe to update –problem for quick updates of information

The General Aviation Pilot Preflight Weather Planning: Weather Products Usability & Limitations, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nicholas Defilippis, Thomas A. Guinn, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas Robert

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Over the last 30 years, a large percentage of weather-related aviation accidents have occurred under General Aviation (GA) operations (FAA, 2010; Fultz & Ashley, 2016; AOPA, 2008).

• Novice Private Pilots VFR into IMC
• High Risk For Incurring Fatality

Aviation Weather Challenges

1. Difficult to interpret Aviation Weather Products
2. Pilot's Decision Making Biases and Errors
3. GA Pilots' Lack of Aviation Weather Experience

Quantitative Examination And Comparison Of Altimetry Rules-Of-Thumb For General Aviation, Thomas A. Guinn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

General aviation rules of thumb (ROTs) for density altitude and true altitude are examined and developed. Both ROTs originate from the same basic principle of hydrostatic balance, but differ significantly in the assumptions made regarding the atmospheric temperature profile. While the ROT for DA assumes a standard atmospheric vertical temperature lapse rate, the ROT for true altitude requires information regarding the observed layer-mean temperature of the atmosphere. Since the layer-mean temperature between the aircraft and the surface is typically unknown, it must be inferred from the temperature at a single level by again assuming a linear lapse rate. This method …