Meteorology Commons^™

Using Asos Ceilings And Mesonet Relative Humidity To Improve General Aviation Flight Planning And Decision Making In Complex Terrain, Connor Hayden Welch

Theses and Dissertations

Despite the increasing availability of weather products and access to data, the issue of weather representativeness, especially in relation to terrain, persists in the aviation industry. Data-sparse regions pose a particular challenge, requiring focused research efforts to address this issue and reduce accident and fatality rates within the general aviation (GA) community. This thesis aims to tackle the specific problem of representing visibility conditions, with a focus on obscuration conditions in elevated terrain.

To achieve this goal, data from Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometers and nearby mesonet relative humidity (RH) were analyzed to establish a relationship between the lowest …

Obscuration Analysis Of Camera Imagery For Aviation Applications, Patrick James Roelant

Theses and Dissertations

Image feature detection is a potent tool with many applications, such as fog identification, roadway conditions, etc. As part of the recent surge in machine learning applications, cloud detection has also become an increasingly engaged area of research. Identifying low clouds is especially useful with respect to aviation, particularly in regions of complex topography prone to visibility-related hazards such as haze or fog. To address this issue, a threshold-based semi-automated algorithm was developed and tested to determine whether or not an image is obscured by fog or haze. Images were obtained from a ground-based camera network in Southern California, the …

Cloud Image Classification Using Machine Learning, Marcus Peter Cote

Theses and Dissertations

Machine learning is a rapidly expanding technology that has proven to be highly useful for image classification. Ground-based camera networks are an emerging resource for aviation weather information with near real-time imagery available online for public viewing and download. While raw web camera imagery can be analyzed by aviators, high pilot workload motivates the use of machine learning to autonomously interpret cloud type information from images that is relevant to aviation weather hazards. In particular, transfer learning is a machine learning approach by which elements of a pre-trained machine learning model are refitted for new tasks. By employing transfer learning …

A Probabilistic Approach To Generating Representative Wind Forcing And Wave Heights Within An Estuarine Environment, Vanessa Maria Haley

Theses and Dissertations

While wind driven waves affect erosion, sediment resuspension, and flow in shallow estuaries like the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), neither winds nor waves are well observed in this environment. In order to calculate accurate significant wave heights, the winds used for the calculation must be consistent with the observed winds over the lagoon. Given the complex land/water geometry and subsequent limited fetch, a probabilistic approach is used to produce a representative wind field over the IRL. Observed winds, near the IRL, are used to sample wind distributions obtained from 180 high resolution atmospheric model simulations in order to generate a …

Wind-Driven Setup, Roughness, And Drag Over A Depth- And Fetch-Limited Coastal Estuary, Jeffrey Allen Colvin

Theses and Dissertations

The understanding of the momentum exchange across the air-sea interface is critical to accurately model and forecast wind speed, wave properties, setup, and circulation. This is particularly true for a restricted estuary, such as the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), where wind is the driving force behind water movement due to the limited number of direct ocean connections. Current atmospheric and hydrodynamic models use formulations of the drag coefficient and/or roughness length based on open ocean studies in which wave properties are not considered. This dissertation develops two parameterizations – one for wind setup and one for the drag coefficient – …

Influence Of Ndbc Buoy Design On Sea Surface Temperature Trends In The Coastal United States, Alexander Keith Nickerson

Theses and Dissertations

The sea surface temperature (SST) record is the one of the oldest climate records, stretching back to 1662. Since that time, voluntary observing ships (VOSs) have been including these data in their ship‘s log. Due to the sparseness of VOS data, moored buoys were created to provide data at regular intervals in order to provide a more continuous record with data collection unaffected by human error. The SST sensor in National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys is inside a hull and not in direct contact with the ocean. Thus, the design of the buoy may subject them to additional biases …

An Analysis Of The Moisture And Moist Static Energy Budgets In Amip Simulations, Kristine Adelaide Boykin

Theses and Dissertations

An analysis of the second phase of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations has been conducted to understand the physical processes that control precipitation in the tropics. This is achieved primarily through the analysis of the moisture and moist static energy budgets. Overall, there is broad agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, although specific tropical regions such as the Maritime Continent poses challenges to these simulations. The models in general capture the latitudinal distribution of precipitation and key precipitating regions including the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Asian Monsoon. The simulations portrayed the global patterns of evaporation …

Surface Cooling Due To Precipitation In The Tropics, Camila Gomes Martins Ramos

Theses and Dissertations

Precipitation is an important component of the global hydrological cycle. It affects the upper ocean salinity by adding freshwater to the ocean. In addition, precipitation plays a role in cooling the ocean and land surfaces, when the temperature of the raindrops is lower than the temperature of the surface. However, the surface cooling due to precipitation (QP) remains an overlooked feature and is not included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. One might expect that heavy precipitation events may lead to large QP, which can impact the surface temperature, surface energy balance, and local- to regional-scale circulations. …

Impacts Of Bias Correction Of Wind Forecasts On Hydrodynamic And Wave Model Predictions, Robert J. Weaver, Peyman Taeb, Bryan P. Holman, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Atousa Saberi, Jeff Colvin

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are forced by surface wind output from operational met. models. Current suite of operational met. models do not have the spatial resolution needed to resolve the fine scale processes associated with complex estuarine wind-driven circulation nor a detailed land-water mask. Goal: improve forecast wind forcing in most efficient manner as possible

Evaluating The Surface Layer Wind Profile In The Wrf, Robert Stephen James

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the surface vertical wind profile responds to different planetary boundary layer schemes in computer models. Local surface roughness is one of the elements represented in these schemes, and is used when interpolating winds down from the lowest model level to the surface, so this needs to be accurately represented in the model. Computer models rely on one bulk estimate of surface roughness for a given grid point, despite the complexity of surrounding terrain. Data for this research was gathered from local surface observations and computer simulations, which looked at two different …

Probability Distributions And Threshold Selection For Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Sarah Collins, Denis N. Botambekov, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical cyclone wind fields. Aspects of the wind speed probability data distribution, including maximumexpected probability and forecast skill, are assessed. Wind speed probability distributions are shown to be well approximated by a bounded power-law distribution when the feature size is smaller than the location error and tends toward a U-shaped distribution as the location error becomes small. Forecast skill (i.e., true and Heidke skill scores) is …

Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part Ii: Waves, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a combination of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and a parametric wind model. The default drag parameterization is replaced by one that is more in line with recent studies where a cap at weak-to-moderate wind speeds is applied. Quadrant-based significant wave height (Hs) statistics are composited in a storm-relative reference frame and stratified by the radius of maximum wind, storm speed, and storm intensity. …

Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

A computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, generated from a simple parametric model constructed using extended best-track data and climatology, with a first-guess field obtained from the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Tests are performed whereby parameters in the wind analysis and vortex model are varied in an attempt to best represent the TC wind fields.Acomparison between nonlinear and climatological estimates of the TC size parameter indicates that the former yields a much …

Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

A computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, generated from a simple parametric model constructed using extended best-track data and climatology, with a first-guess field obtained from the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Tests are performed whereby parameters in the wind analysis and vortex model are varied in an attempt to best represent the TC wind fields. A comparison between nonlinear and climatological estimates of the TC size parameter indicates that the former yields …

Evaluation Of The National Hurricane Center’S Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product, Michael E. Splitt, Jaclyn A. Shafer, Steven M. Lazarus, William P. Roeder

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. land-threatening and landfalling events over four hurricane seasons from 2004 to 2007. A key element of this work is the discernment of risk associated with the interval forecast probabilities for the three wind speed categories (i.e., 34, 50, and 64 kt, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s−1). A quantitative assessment of the interval probabilities (0–12, 12–24, 24–36, 36–48, 48–72, 72–96, and 96–120 h) is conducted by converting …

Local Adjustment Of The Background Error Correlation For Surface Analyses Over Complex Terrain, David T. Myrick, John D. Horel, Steven M. Lazarus

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

The terrain between grid points is used to modify locally the background error correlation matrix in an objective analysis system. This modification helps to reduce the influence across mountain barriers of corrections to the background field that are derived from surface observations. This change to the background error correlation matrix is tested using an analytic case of surface temperature that encapsulates the significant features of nocturnal radiation inversions in mountain basins, which can be difficult to analyze because of locally sharp gradients in temperature. Bratseth successive corrections, optimal interpolation, and three-dimensional variational approaches are shown to yield exactly the same …

Experimental Goes Sounder Products For The Assessment Of Downburst Potential, Gary P. Ellrod, James P. Nelson Iii, Michael R. Witiw, Lynda Bottos, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Several experimental products derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder retrievals (vertical profiles of temperature and moisture) have been developed to assist weather forecasters in assessing the potential for convective downbursts. The product suite currently includes the wind index (WINDEX), a dry microburst index, and the maximum difference in equivalent potential temperature (θe) from the surface to 300 hPa. The products are displayed as color-coded boxes or numerical values, superimposed on GOES visible, infrared, or water vapor imagery, and are available hourly, day and night, via the Internet. After two full summers of evaluation, the products have been shown …