Meteorology Commons^™

Coo-Coo For Cocorahs: Participation In A Nationwide Meteorology Citizen Science Program, Adam M. Rainear

Sustainability Research & Practice Seminar Presentations

Professor Adam Rainear (Communications and Media) presents Coo-Coo for CoCoRaHS: Participation in a Nationwide Meteorology Citizen Science Program

Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq

Faculty Publications

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …

Using Phenology To Unravel Differential Soil Water Use And Productivity In A Semiarid Savanna, Blake Steiner, Russell L. Scott, Jia Hu, Natasha Mcbean, Andrew Richardson, David J. P. Moore

University Administration Publications

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site …

Impact Of Weather Factors On Airport Arrival Rates: Application Of Machine Learning In Air Transportation, Robert W. Maxson, Dothang Truong, Woojin Choi

Publications

Weather is responsible for approximately 70% of air transportation delays in the National Airspace System, and delays resulting from convective weather alone cost airlines and passengers millions of dollars each year due to delays that could be avoided. This research sought to establish relationships between environmental variables and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered from six out of ten airports using various machine learning methods within an overarching data mining protocol, and the developed models were tested using historical data.

A Climatology Of Mesoscale Airmasses With High Theta-E, Charles J. Kropiewnicki

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

A Mesoscale Airmass with High Theta-E (MAHTE) is a narrow region of larger theta-e located on the cool side of an airmass boundary. MAHTEs typically possesses higher CAPE than the warm side of the boundary, creating a more favorable environment for severe convection. MAHTEs can also be characterized by larger low-level shear and lower LCLs and may also have a propensity for supporting tornadogenesis. The majority of MAHTE research to date has been comprised of case studies, and the prevalence of MAHTEs is not well understood. This project fills that knowledge gap by creating a climatology of MAHTE occurrence. This …

An Empirical Examination Of The Environmental Variability That Impacted Supercell Evolution, Longevity, And Severe Weather Production On 22 May 2019 In Oklahoma, Kyle D. Pittman

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Mesoscale environmental heterogeneity can have significant impacts on thunderstorm organization, evolution, longevity, and severe weather production. This study examines the 22 May 2019 thunderstorm event in Oklahoma, where a relatively broad area of strong instability and vertical wind shear existed along a synoptic boundary and in the open warm sector that would seem to support long-lived supercells and tornadoes. There were two particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watches issued during the event, but few severe reports and no tornadoes formed in the watch that covered the southwestern portion of the state. Several tornadic supercells and many more severe reports occurred …

Extent Of The 2023 Coral Bleaching Event In The Nargana Region Of Guna Yala, Panama, Brydon Deanna Hollander

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral reefs are diverse marine ecosystems that exist in tropical ecosystems all over the world. They provide a myriad of ecological services that are vital for marine organism biodiversity and human coastal communities. A major threat to coral reefs is a rise in sea surface temperature that causes coral bleaching. The effect of a coral bleaching event in Nargana, Guna Yala will be investigated to examine how the health status of coral reef ecosystems are being impacted. To guide these efforts, the extent of coral bleaching will be measured along with whether sea surface temperature (SST), human concentration, and El …

Lightning Forecast From Chaotic And Incomplete Time Series Using Wavelet De-Noising And Spatiotemporal Kriging, Jared K. Nystrom, Raymond Hill, Andrew J. Geyer, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., Eric Chicken

Faculty Publications

Purpose: Present a method to impute missing data from a chaotic time series, in this case lightning prediction data, and then use that completed dataset to create lightning prediction forecasts.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the technique of spatiotemporal kriging to estimate data that is autocorrelated but in space and time. Using the estimated data in an imputation methodology completes a dataset used in lighting prediction.

Findings: The techniques provided prove robust to the chaotic nature of the data, and the resulting time series displays evidence of smoothing while also preserving the signal of interest for lightning prediction.

Abstract © Emerald Publishing …

Hydrological Dynamics Of Surface-Groundwater Interactions Between Major Springs Of Mammoth Cave And The Green River, Kentucky, Usa, Matthew Cecil

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Mammoth Cave is an iconic example of the cave and karst systems that underlie over 50% of the United States and provide around 13% of the world’s population with water resources. These environmental features are vulnerable to drought, pollution, and human impacts. The complex hydrological regime of the Mammoth Cave system has been studied in the past, but there are improvements and updates that can be made to the past research. The dynamics of the surface-groundwater system, particularly reversals of the Green River and how it backfloods into the cave, are some examples. Echo River and River Styx Springs provide …

Hyper-Local Weather Predictions With The Enhanced General Urban Area Microclimate Predictions Tool, Kevin A. Adkins, William Becker, Sricharan Ayyalasomayajula, Steven Lavenstein, Kleoniki Vlachou, David Miller, Marc Compere, Avinash Muthu Krishnan, Nickolas Macchiarella

Publications

This paper presents enhancements to, and the demonstration of, the General Urban area Microclimate Predictions tool (GUMP), which is designed to provide hyper-local weather predictions by combining machine-learning (ML) models and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. For the further development and demonstration of GUMP, the Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) campus was used as a test environment. Local weather sensors provided data to train ML models, and CFD models of urban- and suburban-like areas of ERAU’s campus were created and iterated through with a wide assortment of inlet wind speed and direction combinations. ML weather sensor predictions were combined with best-fit …

Radar Signatures In Tropical Cyclone Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Michaela Wood

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Tropical cyclones (TCs) contain highly-sheared environments that are conducive for supercell thunderstorms. These TC supercells sometimes produce tornadoes, often with little warning. Given the often-close proximity of tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells, environments may not be well-distinguished, pointing to the potential value of radar observations. In this study, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of a sample of TC supercells are examined in the context of known supercell structure and microphysics. Tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells are compared with their midlatitude counterparts, and the environments and characteristic structure of these storms are shown to be notably different. An attempt is made to distinguish …

The Effect Of Advection On The Three Dimensional Distribution Of Turbulent Kinetic Energy And Its Generation In Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations, Joshua B. Wadler, David S. Nolan, Jun A. Zhang, Lynn K. Shay, Joseph B. Olsen, Joseph J. Cione

Publications

The distribution of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its budget terms is estimated in simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) of various intensities. Each simulated TC is subject to storm motion, wind shear, and oceanic coupling. Different storm intensities are achieved through different ocean profiles in the model initialization. For each oceanic profile, the atmospheric simulations are performed with and without TKE advection. In all simulations, the TKE is maximized at low levels (i.e., below 1 km) and ∼0.5 km radially inward of the azimuthal-mean radius of maximum wind speed at 1-km height. As in a previous study, the axisymmetric TKE decreases …

The Influence Of Complex Coastlines On The Sea Breeze And Convection Initiation In Coastal North Carolina, Logan Howard, Adam L. Houston

Honors Theses

The sea breeze is a common phenomenon in coastal regions around the world. Their development and propagation can be treated as a density current. It is well known that many factors influence density current propagation, including wind. Depending on the orientation, the wind speed and shear can enhance or inhibit the development of the sea breeze. In places like eastern North Carolina, complex coastal geography can create river and sound breezes that, upon collision, have the potential to initiate thunderstorms. Using Cloud Model 1, simulations were conducted to model the behavior of the sea breezes in eastern North Carolina and …

Precipitation Recorded In The Turkana Basin From 2005 To 2022., Acacia Leakey, Greg Henkes, Mae Saslaw, Dino Martins

Geosciences Research Data

This is a dataset of precipitation recorded at three sites in northern Kenya near Lake Turkana using standard rain gauges. The data was recorded at the Koobi Fora Research Station (3.947736, 36.186166) from March 2003 until 2006, at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Ileret facility (4.28510, 36.262158) from 2006 to 2022 and at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Turkwel facility (3.140825, 35.864599) from 2012 to 2022. The data was collected manually by TBI staff observing gradation lines on the collectors following rainfall events and recorded as a single total for each 24 hour period.

Atmospheric Meteorological Effects On Forecasting Daily Lightning Occurrence At Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Jon Saul [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Eric G. Mbonimpa, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

As the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center increase their launch rate, any process that could assist in the automation of the currently-manual lightning forecast would be valuable. This work examines the possibility of machine-learning assistance with the daily lighting forecast which is produced by the 45th Weather Squadron. A dataset consisting of 34 lightning, pressure, temperature and windspeed measurements taken from 334 daily weather balloon (rawinsonde) launches in the timeframe 2012-2021 was examined. Models were created using recursive feature elimination on logistic regression and XGClassifier algorithms, as well as Bayesian and bandit optimization of neural network …

Relative Importance Of Radar Variables For Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall: A Machine Learning Approach, Yi Victor Wang, Seung Hee Kim, Geunsu Lyu, Choeng-Lyong Lee, Gyuwon Lee, Ki-Hong Min, Menas C. Kafatos

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Highly short-term forecasting, or nowcasting, of heavy rainfall due to rapidly evolving mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is particularly challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction models. To overcome such a challenge, a growing number of studies have shown significant advantages of using machine learning (ML) modeling techniques with remote sensing data, especially weather radar data, for high-resolution rainfall nowcasting. To improve ML model performance, it is essential first and foremost to quantify the importance of radar variables and identify pertinent predictors of rainfall that can also be associated with domain knowledge. In this study, a set of MCS types consisting of …

The Contribution Of Non-Tropical Cyclone Vortices To The Rainfall Of The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Jun Matsumoto, John A. Manalo

Physics Faculty Publications

Weaker disturbances than tropical cyclones (TCs) such as tropical depressions and cold surges can significantly induce heavy rainfall and flooding events over the Philippines. However, the analysis of these disturbances including their rainfall contributions are often neglected in previous studies. As the first attempt to address this research gap, this study investigates the rainfall contribution of non-TC vortices over the Philippines from 1979 to 2020. Only those rainfall-producing non-TC vortices that formed and appeared within a 500-km radius from the Philippine coastline were examined in this study. A total of 7,686 non-TC vortex days (50% of the total days during …

¿Aviso O Alerta? Developing Effective, Inclusive, And Consistent Watch And Warning Translations For U.S. Spanish Speakers, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, América R. Gaviria Pabón, Joseph T. Ripberger, Abby Bitterman, Jonathan B. Thornton, Mackenzie J. Krocak, Sean R. Ernst, Estilita Cassiani Obeso, John Lipski

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Spanish-speaking populations in the United States are more vulnerable in disaster contexts due to inequities, such as language barriers, that prevent them from receiving life-saving information. For the past couple of decades, governmental organizations have addressed these issues by translating weather watches, warnings, and advisories into Spanish. Previous studies suggest that these Spanish translations do not communicate the same level of urgency as their English counterparts. To identify whether these translated products result in inequities between English and Spanish speaker reception and comprehension of forecast information, we asked a representative sample of U.S. English (n = 1,550) and Spanish (n …

Comparing Past And Future Drought And Surplus Periods In The Colorado River Basin, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Western United States, providing water for seven states and Mexico. Historical and future periods of drought and surplus are analyzed in 17 Colorado River stations. Unimpaired streamflow data are evaluated from the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 from 1950-2099. Future projections are based on eight climate scenarios. Four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5) are observed at Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Furthermore, the ensemble water year means of the four models are analyzed. The durations of drought or surplus, magnitudes, …

Nexus Between Animal Welfare, Environment, And Sustainable Development: Resource Document, Wellbeing International

Nexus – UNEP – Animal Welfare, Environment, Sustainable Development

This Resource Document has been developed to explore the Nexus (links) between Animal Welfare, the Environment, and Sustainable Development. The document includes relevant citations and reports addressing the topics encompassed by the Nexus. It will be maintained as a “living document” (subject to revision) in the WellBeing International Studies Repository. The original document and subsequent revisions will be kept in the Repository to provide a record of the changes.

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Validated Question Bank For Assessing Pilot Knowledge Of Aviation Weather Appendix: Weather Product Interpretation Questions, Robert Thomas, Cassandra Dommingo, John Kleber, Jackie Mcsorely, Amber Cole, Thomas Guinn, Elizabeth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

This appendix supplements the Thomas et al. (2022) paper titled “Validated Question Bank for Assessing Pilot Knowledge of Aviation Weather ” which validates a set of weather product interpretation questions that can be used to measure a pilot’s understanding of weather. The assessment consists of 15 weather product interpretation topics which can be administered as a single 65-question survey or, as in the Thomas et al. (2022) study, two assessments of 33 and 32 questions each separated by topic. The set of 65 questions can be found in this appendix along with a table which demonstrates how to separate the …

Impacts Of Physical Parameterization Schemes And Soil Moisture Initialization On Boundary Layer Evolution In The Weather Research And Forecasting (Wrf) Model, Grace Cutting

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have become a necessary addition to the atmospheric research community over the last several decades, and atmospheric modeling has been used internationally for numerous operational and research purposes. NWP models contain a vast number of combinations of physical and dynamical parameterization schemes; however, they are not always accurate in forecasting weather phenomena at a particular location, as different combinations of parameterization schemes represent differing conditions. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were run to explore which of the commonly used planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes best represented upper-air data (as well as PBL evolution) …

Using Remote And In Situ Observations From Torus To Investigate A Preexisting Airmass Boundary And Its Influence On A Tornadic Supercell On 28 May 2019, Kristen Axon

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

During the 2019 field phase of Targeted Observation by Radars and UAS of Supercells (TORUS), a preexisting airmass boundary was sampled on 28 May 2019 in north-central Kansas in close proximity to a tornadic supercell. This work hypothesized that the preexisting airmass boundary was associated with a mesoscale air mass with high theta-E (MAHTE) that favorably interacted with the tornadic supercell to increase the likelihood of tornadogenesis. Observations from TORUS including mobile mesonets, unoccupied aerial vehicles, soundings, and ground-based mobile radar were used along with GOES-16 visible satellite imagery, Kansas mesonet surface stations, and KUEX WSR-88D data to investigate this …

A Numerical Investigation Of Tornado Production And Intensification In Tropical Cyclones, Marco Paredes

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The environmental conditions required for tornado formation and development in tropical cyclones (TCs) and the mechanisms underlying the intensification of TC tornadoes remain poorly understood. Previous research has suggested that low and mid-level dry air intrusion in TCs may enhance convective instability and influence the production of tornadoes. However, observations have their limitations in answering some of the key questions regarding the relationship among thermodynamic instability, dry air, and TC tornado genesis, development, and dissipation. In this study, a multiple nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a hindcasting mode is used to simulate Hurricane Ivan (2004) by resolving …

Climatology Of Rainfall Distribution And Asymmetries Of Tropical Cyclones: A Global Perspective, Oscar Guzman Rey

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Estimating the magnitude of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall at different landfalling states is an important aspect of the TC forecast that directly affects the level of response from emergency managers in coastal areas. This research analyses the spatial distribution of the rainfall magnitude in tropical cyclones (TCs) at different stages over global oceans. The research’s central hypothesis is that TC rainfall exhibits distinct features in the long-term satellite dataset due to the evolution of the spatial distribution, radial variation, and asymmetries at the stages before, during, and after landfall. The resulting patterns are analyzed through a statistical approach that takes …

Feasibility Of Obtaining Surface Layer Moisture Flux Using An Ir Thermometer, Steven T. Fiorino, Lance Todorowski, Jaclyn Schmidt, Yogendra Raut, Jacob Margraf

Faculty Publications

This paper evaluates the feasibility of a method using a single hand-held infrared (IR) thermometer and a mini tower of wet and dry paper towels to psychometrically obtain surface layer temperature and moisture gradients and fluxes. Sling Psychrometers have long been standard measuring devices for quantifying the thermodynamics of near-surface atmospheric gas–vapor mixtures, specifically moisture parameters. However, these devices are generally only used to measure temperature and humidity at one near-surface level. Multiple self-aspirating psychrometers can be used in a vertical configuration to measure temperature and moisture gradients and fluxes in the first 1–2 m of the surface layer. This …

An Investigation Of Water Obstructions And Related Weather Conditions For Nebraska Roadways, Logan Bundy

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Roadway resilience across the 10,000 miles of road and 3,500 bridges in Nebraska is critical to the economic success of production and logistics. In a state where historical flooding scenarios, such as the one in March 2019 that caused $150 million in damage, could potentially be increasing, it has become essential to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of high-frequency water obstruction areas on roadways. Using Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT) historical water obstruction data from June 2016 through August 2021, statistical and spatial analyses were conducted to quantify the relationship between water obstructions and their associated meteorological conditions, and …

Water: The Gift And The Curse: A Climate Change Preparedness Study On An Increased Rainfall Scenarios In The Yunguilla Cloud Forest, Ecuador, Emilia Dick Fiora Del Fabro

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The purpose of this project was to try and better understand the risks posed to the Yunguilla community in an increased rainfall climate change scenario. While climate modeling is not exact, many models do predict increased rain and storm intensity in this area (“Explainer…”, 2018). This project studies erosion risk, and the potential damage to crops through a series of experiments and mapping.

The first experiment used three hydration percentages 50, 75 and 100, to water two crop types, Fragaria and Caspium, and monitored plant health to see the water's effect. The hydraulic stress testing did not model an increased …

Evaluation Of Wave Contributions In Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Hindcast, Abram Musinguzi, Lokesh Reddy, Muhammad K. Akbar

Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Faculty Research

This paper evaluates the contribution of waves to the total predicted storm surges in a Hurricane Irma hindcast, using ADCIRC+SWAN and ADCIRC models. The contribution of waves is quantified by subtracting the water levels hindcasted by ADCIRC from those hindcasted by ADCIRC+SWAN, using OWI meteorological forcing in both models. Databases of water level time series, wave characteristic time series, and high-water marks are used to validate the model performance. Based on the application of our methodology to the coastline around Florida, a peninsula with unique geomorphic characteristics, we find that wave runup has the largest contribution to the total water …