Meteorology Commons^™

Hydrologic Impact Index For The Pinhoti Hiking Trail, Allie Field

Theses

This study aimed to identify flood-prone areas along the Pinhoti Trail and Chinnabee Silent Trail in the Talladega National Forest. Using the Hydrology Flood Index layer that was created using several essential data layers, the research aimed to provide campers, hikers, nature enthusiasts, and trail maintenance teams with information about areas at a higher risk of flash flooding. The Hydrology Flood Index layer rates the risk of flooding on a scale of 1 to 4, with level 1 indicating a low risk of flooding and level 4 indicating an extremely high risk. The data layers for analyzing flood hazards for …

Effect Of Morphology And An Upstream Tall Building On A Street Canyon Flow, Haoran Du

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The effects of the morphological model and the existence of an upstream tall building on the turbulent street canyon flow and the overlying boundary layer are investigated in a wind tunnel, using Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (S-PIV) measurements. The velocity variances, Reynolds shear stress, and turbulent kinetic energy are found to be larger than in a similar idealized street canyon model. Increasing building height results in a decrease in vertical mass fluxes across the opening of the canyon, at least in the canyon portion directly downstream of the building. The interaction between the large-scale structures in the overlying boundary layer …

Using Asos Ceilings And Mesonet Relative Humidity To Improve General Aviation Flight Planning And Decision Making In Complex Terrain, Connor Hayden Welch

Theses and Dissertations

Despite the increasing availability of weather products and access to data, the issue of weather representativeness, especially in relation to terrain, persists in the aviation industry. Data-sparse regions pose a particular challenge, requiring focused research efforts to address this issue and reduce accident and fatality rates within the general aviation (GA) community. This thesis aims to tackle the specific problem of representing visibility conditions, with a focus on obscuration conditions in elevated terrain.

To achieve this goal, data from Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometers and nearby mesonet relative humidity (RH) were analyzed to establish a relationship between the lowest …

Obscuration Analysis Of Camera Imagery For Aviation Applications, Patrick James Roelant

Theses and Dissertations

Image feature detection is a potent tool with many applications, such as fog identification, roadway conditions, etc. As part of the recent surge in machine learning applications, cloud detection has also become an increasingly engaged area of research. Identifying low clouds is especially useful with respect to aviation, particularly in regions of complex topography prone to visibility-related hazards such as haze or fog. To address this issue, a threshold-based semi-automated algorithm was developed and tested to determine whether or not an image is obscured by fog or haze. Images were obtained from a ground-based camera network in Southern California, the …

Verification Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program (Lamp) At Major Us Airports For Ifr Conditions, Mackenzie O'Rourke

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research is to quantify the LAMP’s performance when forecasting for IFR conditions at specific major airports for forecast hours one, three, six, and twelve, and further determine how the LAMP performs seasonally at those specific airports and forecast hours. Two by two contingency tables were used to calculate the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Heidke Skill Score (HSS), and Bias score. The results show that the LAMP performs relatively better in the cool season compared to the warm season consistently at each chosen airport, and that the LAMP performs …

Tornado Outbreak False Alarm Probabilistic Forecasts With Machine Learning, Kirsten Reed Snodgrass

Theses and Dissertations

Tornadic outbreaks occur annually, causing fatalities and millions of dollars in damage. By improving forecasts, the public can be better equipped to act prior to an event. False alarms (FAs) can hinder the public’s ability (or willingness) to act. As such, a probabilistic FA forecasting scheme would be beneficial to improving public response to outbreaks.

Here, a machine learning approach is employed to predict FA likelihood from Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado outbreak forecasts. A database of hit and FA outbreak forecasts spanning 2010 – 2020 was developed using historical SPC convective outlooks and the SPC Storm Reports database. Weather …

Protecting The Vulnerable: Tornado Sheltering And Communication Of Public Shelters With A Case Study From The Covid-19 Pandemic, Craig Douglas Croskery

Theses and Dissertations

One of the greatest natural hazards that is faced with in much of the United States are tornadoes. Despite improvements in the warning processes, the risk of significant loss of life remains high. That is particularly true with vulnerable communities which have higher proportions of mobile homes; however, violent tornadoes are very difficult to manage in permanent homes or buildings as well. As a result, tornado shelters have been built in some communities and have become available to the public. However, their presence is intermittent, and there are many tornado-prone areas that lack such shelters.

After a public survey, it …

Atmospheric Impacts From The 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Charles Philip Johnson

LSU Master's Theses

Although the ecological devastations induced by an oil spill are well studied, the hydrometeorological impacts from a long-term slick have gone unnoticed. The ocean-surface alterations stemming from the lasting oil footprint increase solar radiation absorption which in turn alters the surface pressure and moisture gradients and wind speeds thereby influencing precipitation surrounding the oil spill. Revealing the potential impacts from these could better aid in the safety of crews cleaning spills and provide a better understanding of how humans alter the landscape. This thesis examines the changes in local hydrometeorology brought on by the 2010 summer Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil …

Climatological Analysis Of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Dates And Landfall Characteristics In The North Atlantic And Eastern North Pacific, Nicholas Sava Grondin

Doctoral Dissertations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are significant hazards to coastal and inland regions across the globe, especially in North America. North America is affected by TCs from two basins, the North Atlantic (NATL) and eastern North Pacific (ENP), with the former being the predominate focus of past research. In this dissertation, I present three studies that directly compare TCs in the NATL and ENP by using the same methods for each basin in studying occurrence dates and intraseasonal variability, effects of environmental parameters on occurrence dates and seasonal forecasting, and the behavior of TCs during the final 36 hours before landfall in …

An Analysis Of Hurricane Laura's Storm Surge In Cameron Parish Using Synthetic Storm Tracks, Climatology, And Statistics, Cameron Goff

LSU Master's Theses

Cameron Parish is a large coastal parish in southwest Louisiana that has been impacted by several powerful tropical cyclones. In 2020, the strongest hurricane in recorded history to ever hit this region, Hurricane Laura, set a state record for the highest storm surge measurement at 6.34 meters. I examine the climatology of tropical cyclone landfalls in this parish, looking for trends in intensity and frequency with time. I then compare the extreme surge of Hurricane Laura with a dataset of 645 synthetic tropical cyclones generated and used by the Coastal Hazards System for Louisiana. Plots comparing various meteorological statistics to …

Convection Allowing Simulations Of Hail In Historical And Future Climate Epochs, Jillian Rose Goodin

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This thesis investigates the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on hail frequency and intensity, which poses a significant threat to life and property, accounting for annual insured losses of around $30 billion in the U.S. This approach uses convection-allowing dynamically-downscaled regional climate simulations using input data from NCAR's bias-corrected Community Earth System Model to simulate historical and projected future climate regimes under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A column maximum diameter hail diagnostic is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model to identify instances of hail days and size to quantify changes in large hail frequency …

Historical And Potential Future Climate Of Extreme Daily Precipitation Over The Contiguous United States Using Convection-Permitting Simulations, Sylvia Stinnett

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The impacts of anthropogenic climate change will be felt most strongly through changes in hazards such as extreme precipitation. The potential for extreme precipitation changes—both increases and decreases—may have significant societal impacts (e.g., agriculture production, loss of life and property). However, limited research has quantified future projected changes in extreme precipitation due to computational limitations and considerable time expenditure for convection-permitting simulations of substantial duration.This project sought to analyze changes in extreme daily precipitation—defined as the 99th percentile daily accumulated value—due to climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS) using a dynamically downscaled and convection-permitting regional climate modeling framework. …

Impacts Of Synoptic-Scale Dynamics On Cloud Properties And Radiation In High Southern Latitudes, Tyler R. Barone

Master's Theses

Predicting future climate change relies on accurate representations of the earth’s surface radiation budget. Complex interactions between large-scale dynamical conditions (e.g., low-pressure systems) and microscale processes (e.g., cloud properties) are key contributors to energy budget biases within global climate models. Proper estimation of cloud microscale processes and their responses to synoptic-scale dynamics will greatly improve the accuracy of the simulated energy balance within global climate models. High-latitudinal clouds have significant influences on the Earth’s radiative balance. We examined observations from two field campaigns at Macquarie Island in the Southern Ocean and McMurdo Station in Antarctica. Two global climate models are …

Climatology Of The Elevated Mixed Layer Over The Contiguous United States And Northern Mexico: 1979–2021, Margo Siciliano Andrews

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Elevated mixed layers (EMLs) are an important influence on the severe convective storm climatology in the contiguous United States (CONUS), playing a role in storm generation, sustenance, and suppression. A function of the topography in the western CONUS and northern Mexico, EMLs are elevated layers of nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates and high potential temperature, typically with a capping inversion at their base. Although it is well-established that EMLs are primarily a warm-season phenomenon most frequent in the Great Plains, no research to date has examined their variability in-depth, or whether they have changed through time. This study creates an …

Unmanned Aircraft Systems For Precision Meteorology: An Analysis Of Gnss Position Measurement Error And Embedded Sensor Development, Karla S. Ladino

Theses and Dissertations--Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering

The overarching objective of this research was to enhance our comprehension of the three-dimensional precision of meteorological measurements obtained using small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Two complimentary experiments were conducted to achieve this objective.

The first experiment entailed the development and implementation of a system to determine the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) position accuracy on a UAS platform. This system was utilized to assess the static and dynamic accuracy of L1 and L1/L2 GNSS receivers in real-time kinematic (RTK) and non-RTK fix modes. Adjusted two-sample t-tests revealed significant differences in horizontal and vertical error between RTK and non-RTK receivers …

Spatial And Temporal Characteristics Of Historical Surface Climate Over The Northwest Territories, Canada, Bhaleka D. Persaud

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Climate change is putting many of the Northwest Territories (NWT) ecosystems, its people and animal populations at risk due to accelerated warming, permafrost thaw, and changing precipitation regimes. As the NWT continues to warm, at disproportionately higher rates when compared to the rest of Canada, threats to the stability of NWT’s ecosystems are expected to increase. Consequently, understanding how climate warming has changed historically and its implications on natural ecosystems requires point-to-region-specific, long-term climatic data to elucidate important drivers of observed changes relevant to decision makers at community, Indigenous, Territorial and Federal government levels. However, in situ climate data are …

Cloud Phase Distribution At A Global-Scale And The Governing Factors Using Satellite And In-Situ Airborne Observations, Dao Wang

Master's Theses

Cloud thermodynamic phase distributions play a crucial role in accurately representing cloud radiative effects and feedback in a changing climate. The partitioning of cloud thermodynamic phases (ice, liquid, and mixed phase) significantly influences Earth's surface temperature and its ability to mitigate the impact of global warming. Satellite-based cloud phase data are frequently used for the evaluation of global climate models, yet validation of them against in-situ observations is still lacking. This study examines global cloud phase distributions and their determinant factors by validating three satellite-based cloud phase products against an extensive in-situ airborne dataset. CALIPSO exhibits the most similar ice …

Cirrus Microphysical Properties And The Controlling Factors Using A Machine Learning Approach, Derek D. Ngo

Master's Theses

Cirrus clouds are located at high altitudes and are composed of ice crystals. The unique location of cirrus clouds and their large variability in-cloud microphysical properties allow them to have either warming or cooling effects on Earth’s surface and affect the Earth’s energy budget on a global scale. The examination of cirrus radiative effects is further complicated by multiple factors affecting their formation and evolution, including the effects of thermodynamic, dynamic, aerosol, and chemical tracer variables. In this work, we developed a composite aircraft-based in-situ observation dataset based on seven National Science Foundation (NSF) and five NASA flight campaigns that …

Daily Synoptic-Scale Influences On Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy Supply And Demand In Hypothetical Fully Electrified North American Interconnections, Howard Tang

Master's Theses

Energy grids around the world are becoming increasingly penetrated by renewable energy sources, resulting in progressively variable energy generation. This study aims to provide a fundamental basis for observing atmospheric conditions in relation to weather-dependent renewable energy supply, where daily synoptic-scale influences are considered in hypothetical fully electrified North American interconnections. Three renewable energy types – 100% wind energy, 100% solar energy, and a 50-50 split of wind and solar energy – are scaled to meet weather-driven energy demand on average in three interconnections, namely the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection, and a hypothetical combined interconnection composed of the Western, …

From The Sky To The Smartphone: Communicating Weather Information In A Digital Age, Cole M. Vaughn

Theses and Dissertations

As new technology has emerged in the digital era, the public can now choose from a variety of new media from which to get weather information. Weather applications (apps) and social media have emerged as some of the popular new media. This study sought to understand the extent to which these new media are used, how weather apps are perceived, how the news media used Twitter during Hurricane Irma, and how the public engaged with the news media’s tweets. A survey and dataset of tweets were used to evaluate the research questions and hypotheses of this research. The study found …

Comparison Of 2018-2021 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Before And After Noaa G-Iv Missions, Melissa Piper

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tropical cyclone (TC) hazards are primarily dictated by the TC position; thus, it is important to produce accurate TC track forecasts. Many different features can influence a TC’s motion, yet these features are not always well sampled by in-situ observations over the open ocean, creating a need for supplemental observation collected via aircraft, including the deployment of dropsondes. In 1997, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began operational synoptic surveillance missions in the near-storm environments of TCs using the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft (G-IV), with the goal of reducing track forecast errors. In the first 10 years of operational missions, the …

Cloud Image Classification Using Machine Learning, Marcus Peter Cote

Theses and Dissertations

Machine learning is a rapidly expanding technology that has proven to be highly useful for image classification. Ground-based camera networks are an emerging resource for aviation weather information with near real-time imagery available online for public viewing and download. While raw web camera imagery can be analyzed by aviators, high pilot workload motivates the use of machine learning to autonomously interpret cloud type information from images that is relevant to aviation weather hazards. In particular, transfer learning is a machine learning approach by which elements of a pre-trained machine learning model are refitted for new tasks. By employing transfer learning …

Assessing Changes In Tornado Vulnerablitiy In North Alabama, Mckenna Danielle Brahler

Honors Capstone Projects and Theses

No abstract provided.

Estimation Of Economic Risk From Coastal Natural Hazards In Louisiana, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the most vulnerable areas globally to coastal natural hazards, with risk vulnerability likely increasing. The risks associated with non-tropical-cyclone hazards in Louisiana’s coastal zone have been understudied. This research enhances present and future (i.e., 2050) Louisiana risk assessment using locally-weighted, model-based hazard frequency/intensity and population projections.

Results suggest that property risks associated with extreme cold temperature and tornado are and will remain costlier than those for hail and lightning. Property risks of extreme cold temperature and hail are projected to decrease with the expected warming temperatures, with those of all four of these hazards peaking in …

The Effects Of Incorporating 0-500 M Srh Into The Violent Tornado Parameter, Jay Palmer Roberts

Theses and Dissertations

Between 2011-2021, violent tornadoes accounted for an average of 65% of all tornado-related fatalities. The Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP), created in 2018, attempts to address this forecast problem but has issues with false alarms. Storm Relative Helicity has historically been used in tornado forecasting. Recent studies have shown the 0-500 m effective layer SRH (ESRH) has skill in discerning significantly tornadic events from those that are not.

This study explored the effects of incorporating 0-500 m ESRH into the VTP and issues relating to the parameter’s false alarm rate by examining RUC/RAP forecast soundings for 302 U.S. tornadic events (83 …

Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses satellite data and the moment statistics to determine if solar farms can be placed in the Southeast US. From 2001-2019, the data are analyzed in reference to the Southwest US, where solar farms are located. The clean energy need is becoming more common; therefore, more locations than arid environments must be observed. The Southeast US is the main location of interest due to the warm, moist environment throughout the year. This research uses the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) photosynthetically active radiation product (PAR) to determine viable locations for solar panels. A probability density function (PDF) along …

An Investigation Of Geostationary Satellite Imagery To Compare Developing And Non-Developing African Easterly Waves, Jenna Bartlett

Theses and Dissertations

African easterly waves (AEWs) are known precursors to tropical cyclone (TC) formation, although it is not always clear which AEWs will develop and which AEWs will not. To investigate AEW evolution, this study examines novel observations from the geostationary Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) during July-September 2019. Case studies are conducted for two AEWs: one that became Hurricane Dorian, the strongest and most devastating hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and a long-lived September AEW that did not become a TC. Lower-level moisture and flow, and the strength and spatial distribution of convective activity, differed between these two waves. By …

Examining The Impact Of Stratospheric Vortex Variability On Us Surface Temperature, Elena M. Fernandez

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Variability in high-latitude stratospheric flow, including major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) or strong polar vortex events, can modulate tropospheric circulation and have meteorological implications on surface temperature and weather. The largest tropospheric impacts from Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability – and the regions of focus in the literature – are observed in the North Atlantic, Europe and Asia. Impacts on North America occur but have received less research attention. The goal of this thesis research is to identify and quantify the relationship between high-latitude stratospheric variability and North American wintertime temperature.Using the ERA-Interim and ERA-5 reanalysis for the period of 1999/2000–2018/19, …

Inland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Decay In The Continental United States, Yijie Zhu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone (TC) hazard preparation is mostly focused on coastal cities with less attention typically paid to inland regions. The impact of TCs that propagate far inland is often underestimated and can cause unexpected loss of life and economic loss. This dissertation aims to understand the decay process of TCs during the post-landfall stage by answering three main research questions: (1) What are the general patterns of inland tropical cyclones, including spatial variations, decay rates, and translation speeds? (2) Are there temporal changes in the intensity decay from inland moving hurricanes? (3) How is the hurricane post-landfall dissipation related to …

Understanding Coastal And Inland Hydrometeorological Hazards Produced By Extratropical And Tropical Cyclones Along The East Coast Of The United States, Katherine Towey

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

As global temperatures continue to rise, the effects of anthropogenic climate change will impact the magnitude and frequency of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding events. If we want to accurately predict changes in these flooding events, we need to fully understand them in the current climate. As such, this research examines the relationship between hydrometeorological hazards and the characteristics of the storm types, such as extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and tropical cyclones (TCs), that produce such hazards. Through the use of observational and reanalysis data, the work herein utilizes a cyclone-hazard association algorithm and extreme value analysis to assess the extent, …