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Articles 1 - 15 of 15
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer
CCPO Publications
Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …
Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord
Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord
CCPO Publications
The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …
Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington
Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington
CCPO Publications
Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …
Impact Of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using An Idealized Version Of The Operational Gfdl Hurricane Model, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph R. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, Isaac Ginis
Impact Of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using An Idealized Version Of The Operational Gfdl Hurricane Model, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph R. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, Isaac Ginis
CCPO Publications
The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905-980 hPa). The …
Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas
Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas
CCPO Publications
Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained …
A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim
A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim
CCPO Publications
Past studies have described large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the Southern Hemisphere that lead to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold events (WE and CE). By relying on this description and the importance of the related variability in the lead up to WE and CE, Southern Hemisphere SLP variations in May-June-July (MJJ) are shown here to be excellent predictors for the peak warm/cold events in sea-surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressure that mark the mature phase of a warm/cold event in November-January of the same year. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) are used to extract the …
Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim
Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim
CCPO Publications
Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of …
Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini
Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini
CCPO Publications
Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …
Combining Remote Sensing Data And An Inundation Model To Map Tidal Mudflat Regions And Improve Flood Predictions: A Proof Of Concept Demonstration In Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tal Ezer, Hua Liu
Combining Remote Sensing Data And An Inundation Model To Map Tidal Mudflat Regions And Improve Flood Predictions: A Proof Of Concept Demonstration In Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tal Ezer, Hua Liu
CCPO Publications
Accurate flood predictions require high resolution inundation numerical models and detailed coastal and land topography data. However, such data are not always available. A new method to obtain topographic information of flood zones from remote sensing data is demonstrated here for Cook Inlet, Alaska, where tidal range reaches 8-10 m. The moving shoreline is detected from analysis of water coverage in satellite images taken at different tidal stages, and then the shoreline data from different times are combined with water level data from observations and models to produce new topographic maps of previously unobserved mudflats. The remote sensing-based analysis provides …
Simulation Of The Recent Multidecadal Increase Of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using An 18-Km-Grid Regional Model, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Robert E. Tuleya
Simulation Of The Recent Multidecadal Increase Of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using An 18-Km-Grid Regional Model, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Robert E. Tuleya
CCPO Publications
In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0-2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this "perfect large-scale model" approach for 27 recent August-October seasons (1980-2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from …
Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin
Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin
CCPO Publications
Hurricanes mix and cool the upper ocean, as shown here in observations and modeling of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of hurricane Wilma. Curiously, the upper ocean around the Loop Current warmed prior to Wilma's entrance into the Gulf. The major cause was increased volume and heat transports through the Yucatan Channel produced by storm-induced convergences in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Such oceanic variability may have important impacts on hurricane predictions.
Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker
Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker
CCPO Publications
A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …
Data Assimilation Experiments In The Gulf Stream Region: How Useful Are Satellite-Derived Surface Data For Nowcasting The Subsurface Fields?, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
Data Assimilation Experiments In The Gulf Stream Region: How Useful Are Satellite-Derived Surface Data For Nowcasting The Subsurface Fields?, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
CCPO Publications
Satellite-derived surface data have become an important source of information for studies of the Gulf Stream system. The question of just how useful these datasets are for nowcasting the subsurface thermal fields, however, remains to be fully explored. Three types of surface data-sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and Gulf Stream position (GSP)-are used here in a series of data assimilation experiments to test their usefulness when assimilated into a realistic primitive equation model. The U.S. Navy's analysis fields from the Optimal Thermal Interpolation System are used to simulate the surface data and to evaluate nowcast errors. Correlation …
Continuous Assimilation Of Geosat Altimeter Data Into A Three-Dimensional Primitive Equation Gulf Stream Model, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
Continuous Assimilation Of Geosat Altimeter Data Into A Three-Dimensional Primitive Equation Gulf Stream Model, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
CCPO Publications
A three-dimensional data assimilation scheme is described and tested, using the Geosat altimeter data and a high-resolution, primitive equation, numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream region. The assimilation scheme is based on an optimal interpolation approach in which data along satellite tracks are continuously interpolated horizontally and vertically into the model grid and assimilated with the model prognostic fields. Preprocessed correlations between surface elevation anomalies and subsurface temperature and salinity anomalies are used to project surface information into the deep ocean; model and data error estimates are used to optimize the assimilation. Analysis fields derived from the Navy's Optimum …
A Numerical Study Of The Variability And The Separation Of The Gulf Stream, Induced By Surface Atmospheric Forcing And Lateral Boundary Flows, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
A Numerical Study Of The Variability And The Separation Of The Gulf Stream, Induced By Surface Atmospheric Forcing And Lateral Boundary Flows, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor
CCPO Publications
A primitive equation model is used to study the effects of surface and lateral forcing on the variability and the climatology of the Gulf Stream system. The model is an eddy-resolving, coastal ocean model that includes thermohaline dynamics and a second-order turbulence closure scheme to provide vertical mixing. The surface forcing consists of wind stress and heat fluxes obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Sensitivity studies are performed by driving the model with different forcing (e.g., annual versus zero surface forcing or monthly versus annual forcing). The model climatology, obtained from a five-year simulation of each case, is …