Meteorology Commons^™

Estimating Annual Precipitation For The Colorado River Basin Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Estimating long-lead time precipitation under the stress of increased climatic variability is a challenging task in the field of hydrology. A modified Support Vector Machine (SVM) based framework is proposed to estimate annual precipitation using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, consisting of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a period of 1900–2008, are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with a 1 year lead time. The SVM model is applied to 17 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. The overall results revealed that …

Hydroclimatic Forecasting In The Western United States Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions And Data-Driven Models, Christopher Allen Carrier

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This thesis investigated climate variability and their associated hydrologic responses in the western United States. The western United States faces the problem of water scarcity, where the management and mitigation of available water supplies are further complicated by climate variability. Climate variability associated with the phases of oceanic-atmospheric oscillations has been shown to influence streamflow and precipitation, where predictive relationships have led to the possibility of producing long-range forecasts. Based on literature review, four oceanic-atmospheric oscillation indices were identified in having the most prominent influence over the western United States including the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal …

Evaluating Changes And Estimating Seasonal Precipitation For Colorado River Basin Using Stochastic Non-Parametric Disaggregation Technique, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Precipitation estimation is an important and challenging task in hydrology because of high variability and changing climate. This research involves (1) analyzing changes (trend and step) in seasonal precipitation and (2) estimating seasonal precipitation by disaggregating water year precipitation using a k-nearest neighbor (KNN) nonparametric technique for 29 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin. Water year precipitation data from 1900 to 2008 are subdivided into four seasons (i.e., autumn, winter, spring, and summer). Two statistical tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) are used to evaluate trend changes, and a rank sum test is used to identify the step change in …

Association Of Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations And Hydroclimatic Variables In The Colorado River Basin, Ajay Kalra

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

With increasing evidence of climatic variability, there is a need to improve forecast for hydroclimatic variables i.e., precipitation and streamflow preserving their spatial and temporal variability. Climatologists have identified different oceanic-atmospheric oscillations that seem to influence the behavior of these variables and in turn can be used to extend the forecast lead time. In the absence of a good physical understanding of the linkages between oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and hydrological processes, it is difficult to construct a physical model. An attractive alternative to physically based models are the Artificial Intelligence (AI) type models, also referred to as machine learning or data-driven …

Design And Status Of The Elevationl Transect And Monitoring Systems For Nevada’S Nsf Epscor Climate Change Research Program, Brian M. Bird, Scotty Strachan, David B. Simeral, Richard L. Jasoni

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

15 PowerPoint slides Convener: Franco Biondi, UNR & Michael Young, DRI Session 4: Ecological Change and Water Resources Abstract: -Current status of Transects -Sheep Range Transect (5 sites) fully permitted through Fish and Wildlife Service. -Site access agreement acquired from the Long Now Foundation for Snake Range (sites 1, 2 and 3). -Snake Range site 4 access granted through the Nevada Land Conservatory. -Waiting for site permit approval on sites 8,9 and 6,7 from BLM and GBNP respectively. -Tower installed at North Las Vegas UWCC for testing of sensors and communications. -Installation of towers will begin winter 2010 at lower …

Design Of A Software Framework Prototype For Scientific Model Interoperability, Eric Fritzinger, Sohei Okamoto

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

19 PowerPoint slides Session 2: Infrastructure Convener: Sergiu Dascalu, UNR Abstract: -What are models? -Mathematical models used to describe a system -E.g. Atmospheric, Oceanic, Ecological, etc… -Algorithmic calculations which take input and produce estimated results -Weather forecasting, global warming predictions, sea level estimations, etc… -Models are invaluable

Research Poster: An Overview Of Progress In Nsf Epscor Project Entitled, “Reducing Cloud Uncertainties In Climate Models”, Subhashree Mishra, David L. Mitchell, W. Patrick Arnott

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

Research poster

Research Poster: Climate Prediction Downscaling Of Temperature And Precipitation In The Great Basin Region, Ramesh Vellore, Benjamin J. Hatchett, Darko Koracin

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

Research poster

Characterization Of Winds Through The Rotor Plane Using A Phased Array Sodar And Recommendations For Future Work, Regina Anne Deola

Publications (E)

Portable remote sensing devices are increasingly needed to cost effectively characterize the meteorology at a potential wind energy site as the size of modern wind turbines increase. A short term project co-locating a Sound Detection and Ranging System (SODAR) with a 200 meter instrumented meteorological tower at the Texas Tech Wind Technology Field Site was performed to collect and summarize wind information through an atmospheric layer typical of utility scale rotor plane depths. Data collected identified large speed shears and directional shears that may lead to unbalanced loads on the rotors. This report identifies suggestions for incorporation of additional data …

The 2009-2010 El Nino: Hydrologic Relief To U.S. Regions, Glenn A. Tootle, Thomas C. Piechota, Oubeidillah Aziz, William Paul Miller, Venkat Lakshmi, John A. Dracup, Carly Jerla

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Current forecasts by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are that the Pacific Ocean will experience El Niño conditions in late 2009 and into 2010. These forecasts are similar to past El Niño events in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1986–1987, and 2002–2003.

Evaluating the hydrologic conditions for these past El Niño events reveals that during these times, surface water supply conditions improved in many parts of the United States, including the Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. At the same time, the Pacific Northwest and other specific regions of the United States experienced below-average water supply conditions. This is consistent with the …

Sparticus: Small Particles In Cirrus Science And Operations Plan, J. Mace, E. Jensen, G. Mcfarquhar, J. Comstock, T. Ackerman, David L. Mitchell, X. Liu, T. Garrett

Publications (E)

From a mass-weighted perspective, cirrus clouds exert an enormous influence on the radiative energy budget of the earth?s climate system. Owing to their location in the cold upper troposphere, cirrus can significantly reduce the outgoing longwave radiation while, at the same time, remaining relatively transmissive to solar energy. Thus, cirrus clouds are the only cloud genre that can exert a direct radiative warming influence on the climate system (Ackerman et al. 1988). It is not surprising, therefore, that general circulation models (GCMs) are especially sensitive to the presence of cirrus in the model atmosphere. Lohmann and Roeckner (1995), for instance, …

Long Distance Microbial Transport In Air: Global Change Implications, Bradley J. Davey, J. C. Bruckner, Jenny C. Fisher, Duane P. Moser

Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP)

The first manifestations of global change will most likelv be observed in the Earth's atmosphere. Changing wind patterns, for example, may effect the long distance dispersal of microor-g anisms. The overall objective of this research is to correlate molecular assessments of microbial community structure from cloud water and snow samples, obtained from DRI's Storm Peak Laboratory atop Mt. Werner in Colorado, with atmospheric data and calculated air mass back trajectories. Our activities for summer of 2009 will be a focused proof-of-concept exercise to determine if intact microbial DNA and viable cells can be recovered from cloud water and alpine snow …

Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations For Long Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the …

Consequences Of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes For Terrestrial Ecosystems, S. D. Smith, C. Beier, Aimee T. Classen, Melinda D. Smith, Jana L. Heisler, S. W. Leavitt, Alan K. Knapp, D. Briske, Y. Luo, M. Reichstein, J. E. Bell, Philip A. Fay, R. Sherry, Benjamin Smith

Life Sciences Faculty Research

Amplification of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global warming is forecast to lead to more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events and longer intervals between events. We present a conceptual framework, based on past investigations and ecological theory, for predicting the consequences of this underappreciated aspect of climate change. We consider a broad range of terrestrial ecosystems that vary in their overall water balance. More extreme rainfall regimes are expected to increase the duration and severity of soil water stress in mesic ecosystems as intervals between rainfall events increase. In contrast, xeric ecosystems may exhibit …

Results Of Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain, N. Mcginnis, Amanda Brandt

Publications (YM)

This is the final report presenting precipitation data collected under task ORD-FYO4-007 “Precipitation Monitoring at Yucca Mountain”. This task acquired data using tipping bucket rain gauges to measure, with known accuracy, the accumulation and timing of precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. Operation of the tipping bucket precipitation monitoring network was assumed by the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies (HRC) at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) in March of 2001. Precipitation monitoring data collection concluded June of 2008. All data presented in this report were collected during that time.

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Amanda Brandt

Publications (YM)

Objectives: Status of the Task to Date
Network Overview/ Equipment
Data Trends
Uses and Collaborative Projects
Spatial Interpolation of YM Rainfall
Storm Event Analysis
Shallow Groundwater Response to Rainfall
UE29a1 Water Level Response to Barometric Pressure Fluctuation

Yucca Mountain Climate: Past, Present, And Future, Saxon E. Sharpe

Publications (YM)

Evaluation of modern climate is necessary to relate climatic events to near-surface processes such as infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration.

Modern climate information also aids in environmental analyses of repository design facilities and atmospheric dispersion models.

Evaluation of past climate regimes, particularly temperature and precipitation, is needed to assess the relation of past climate to past hydrologic conditions.

Estimates of potential future climate and hydrology are needed to evaluate repository performance.

Soil Moisture As An Indicator Of Weather Extremes, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas C. Piechota, Ujjwal Narayan, Chunling Tang

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In this paper, we investigate floods and droughts in the Upper Mississippi basin over a 50-year period (1950–1999) using a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – 3 Layer). Simulations have been carried out between January 1950 and December 1999 at daily time-step and 1/8° spatial resolution for the water budget and at hourly time-step and 1° spatial resolution for the energy balance. This paper will provide valuable insights to the slow response components of the hydrological cycle and its diagnostic/predictive value in the case of floods and droughts. The paper compares the use of the Palmer Drought Severity Index …

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain, Amanda Brandt, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Drew Coleman, Donald H. Baepler, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

This work will be conducted under Task ORD-FY04-007, “Precipitation Monitoring at Yucca Mountain”. The objective of this task is to measure, with known accuracy, the accumulation and timing of precipitation around Yucca Mountain using tipping bucket rain gauges. The data are used as part of the overall work supporting the net infiltration modeling Analysis Model Report, Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates, and the Performance Confirmation Plan. This work is subject to UCCSN QA program requirements. This SIP presents an independent confirmatory study supporting previously gathered information.

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain From 10/01/2000 Through 06/30/2003, Amanda Brandt, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

This report presents precipitation data collected using tipping bucket rain gauges in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain from October 1, 2000 to June 30, 2003. Operation of the tipping bucket precipitation monitoring network was assumed by the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies at University of Nevada, Las Vegas in March 2001. Previously, it had been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The precipitation monitoring network consists of 17 tipping bucket gauges at various locations in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. During the 2001 water year, rainfall averaged 6.16 inches. The following 2002 water year was much drier averaging 1.11 …

Climate: Past, Present, And Future, Saxon E. Sharpe, Rick Forester, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

Climatology and meteorology studies in the Yucca Mountain area have resulted in the following key observations and conclusions: • The present-day arid climate of the Yucca Mountain area can be understood in terms of global-scale atmospheric circulation and regional to-local physiographic features. In general terms, the area is under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds and associated storm systems during the cool part of the year and and is under the influence of moist air advected from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California during the summer. Temperature and precipitation data from Nevada regions 3 and 4 (southern …

Calculated Current Velocity Data, U.S. Bureau Of Reclamation

Publications (WR)

Data collected at various stations around the Lake Mead vicinity. Air temperature, lake elevation, weather, and wind velocity is recorded, as well as the depth, magnitude, resolved angle, and bearing of the water currents.