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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Eugene C. Cordero
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface …
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface …
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part I: Temperature, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part I: Temperature, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Eugene C. Cordero
The optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output—a time series’ most significant nonoverlapping periods of high or low rankings—makes it possible to graphically identify common temporal breakpoints and spatial patterns of IMD variability in the analyses of 102 climate division temperature series. This approach is also applied to annual Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) climate indices, a Northern Hemisphere annual temperature (NHT) series, and divisional annual and seasonal temperature data during …
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part Ii: Precipitation And Streamflow, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part Ii: Precipitation And Streamflow, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero
Eugene C. Cordero
In Part I of this paper, the optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) regimes in U.S. climate division temperature data during 1896–2012. Here, the method is used to test for annual and seasonal precipitation regimes during that same period. Water-year mean streamflow rankings at 125 U.S. Hydro-Climatic Data Network gauge stations are also evaluated during 1939–2011. The precipitation and streamflow regimes identified are compared with ORR-derived regimes in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and indices derived from gridded SST anomaly (SSTA) analysis data. Using a graphic display approach …
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part I: Temperature, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part I: Temperature, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
The optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output—a time series’ most significant nonoverlapping periods of high or low rankings—makes it possible to graphically identify common temporal breakpoints and spatial patterns of IMD variability in the analyses of 102 climate division temperature series. This approach is also applied to annual Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) climate indices, a Northern Hemisphere annual temperature (NHT) series, and divisional annual and seasonal temperature data during …
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part Ii: Precipitation And Streamflow, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero
Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis Of Intra- To Multidecadal U.S. Climate Variability. Part Ii: Precipitation And Streamflow, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
In Part I of this paper, the optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) regimes in U.S. climate division temperature data during 1896–2012. Here, the method is used to test for annual and seasonal precipitation regimes during that same period. Water-year mean streamflow rankings at 125 U.S. Hydro-Climatic Data Network gauge stations are also evaluated during 1939–2011. The precipitation and streamflow regimes identified are compared with ORR-derived regimes in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and indices derived from gridded SST anomaly (SSTA) analysis data. Using a graphic display approach …
Trends In The Ams Education Symposium And Highlights From 2012, Rajul Pandya, Donna Charlevoix, Eugene Cordero, David Smith, Sepi Yalda
Trends In The Ams Education Symposium And Highlights From 2012, Rajul Pandya, Donna Charlevoix, Eugene Cordero, David Smith, Sepi Yalda
Eugene C. Cordero
The Department of Meteorology (now Atmospheric Sciences) at the University of Utah faced reductions in state funding in 2008 that reduced support for nontenured instructors at the same time that the faculty were becoming increasingly successful obtaining federally supported research grants. A faculty retreat and subsequent discussions led to substantive curriculum changes to modernize the curriculum, enhance course offerings for undergraduate and graduate students, and improve the overall efficiency of the academic program. Maintaining discipline standards and existing teaching loads were important constraints on these changes. Key features of the curriculum revisions for undergraduate majors included eliminating a very rigid …
Trends In The Ams Education Symposium And Highlights From 2012, Rajul Pandya, Donna Charlevoix, Eugene Cordero, David Smith, Sepi Yalda
Trends In The Ams Education Symposium And Highlights From 2012, Rajul Pandya, Donna Charlevoix, Eugene Cordero, David Smith, Sepi Yalda
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
The Department of Meteorology (now Atmospheric Sciences) at the University of Utah faced reductions in state funding in 2008 that reduced support for nontenured instructors at the same time that the faculty were becoming increasingly successful obtaining federally supported research grants. A faculty retreat and subsequent discussions led to substantive curriculum changes to modernize the curriculum, enhance course offerings for undergraduate and graduate students, and improve the overall efficiency of the academic program. Maintaining discipline standards and existing teaching loads were important constraints on these changes. Key features of the curriculum revisions for undergraduate majors included eliminating a very rigid …
Reproduction Of Twentieth Century Intradecadal To Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability In Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models, Patrick T. Brown, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Reproduction Of Twentieth Century Intradecadal To Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability In Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models, Patrick T. Brown, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations that included time-varying radiative forcings were ranked according to their ability to consistently reproduce twentieth century intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) surface temperature variability at the 5° by 5° spatial scale. IMD variability was identified using the running Mann-Whitney Z method. Model rankings were given context by comparing the IMD variability in preindustrial control runs to observations and by contrasting the IMD variability among the ensemble members within each model. These experiments confirmed that the inclusion of time-varying external forcings brought simulations into closer agreement with observations. Additionally, they illustrated that the magnitude of …
Reproduction Of Twentieth Century Intradecadal To Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability In Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models, Patrick T. Brown, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Reproduction Of Twentieth Century Intradecadal To Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability In Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models, Patrick T. Brown, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations that included time-varying radiative forcings were ranked according to their ability to consistently reproduce twentieth century intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) surface temperature variability at the 5° by 5° spatial scale. IMD variability was identified using the running Mann-Whitney Z method. Model rankings were given context by comparing the IMD variability in preindustrial control runs to observations and by contrasting the IMD variability among the ensemble members within each model. These experiments confirmed that the inclusion of time-varying external forcings brought simulations into closer agreement with observations. Additionally, they illustrated that the magnitude of …
Evaluating Modeled Intra- To Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney Z Statistics, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero, Patrick T. Brown
Evaluating Modeled Intra- To Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney Z Statistics, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero, Patrick T. Brown
Eugene C. Cordero
An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets …
Evaluating Modeled Intra- To Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney Z Statistics, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero, Patrick T. Brown
Evaluating Modeled Intra- To Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney Z Statistics, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero, Patrick T. Brown
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets …
Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations Of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate And Circulation Changes, Neal Butchart, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, Eugene C. Cordero, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, S. Dhomse, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, F. Li, E. Mancini, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, F. Sassi, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, B. Steil, W. Tian
Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations Of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate And Circulation Changes, Neal Butchart, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, Eugene C. Cordero, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, S. Dhomse, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, F. Li, E. Mancini, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, F. Sassi, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, B. Steil, W. Tian
Eugene C. Cordero
The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade−1 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade …
Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations Of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate And Circulation Changes, Neal Butchart, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, Eugene C. Cordero, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, S. Dhomse, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, F. Li, E. Mancini, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, F. Sassi, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, B. Steil, W. Tian
Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations Of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate And Circulation Changes, Neal Butchart, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, Eugene C. Cordero, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, S. Dhomse, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, F. Li, E. Mancini, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, F. Sassi, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, B. Steil, W. Tian
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade−1 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade …
Climate Change Education And The Ecological Footprint, Eugene C. Cordero, Anne Marie Todd, Diana Abellera
Climate Change Education And The Ecological Footprint, Eugene C. Cordero, Anne Marie Todd, Diana Abellera
Eugene C. Cordero
Global warming has become one of the most important scientific, political, and social issues of our era. In designing an effective mitigation strategy, it is clear that public education must play an important role. This study looks at various components of climate change literacy within a cohort of university students and investigates the impact of action-oriented learning on student understanding. Results from questionnaires given to primarily nonscience students enrolled in weather and climate courses are used to examine student knowledge of climate change. In agreement with prior research, this study finds that signif icant student misconceptions exist regarding the causes …
Climate Change Education And The Ecological Footprint, Eugene C. Cordero, Anne Marie Todd, Diana Abellera
Climate Change Education And The Ecological Footprint, Eugene C. Cordero, Anne Marie Todd, Diana Abellera
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
Global warming has become one of the most important scientific, political, and social issues of our era. In designing an effective mitigation strategy, it is clear that public education must play an important role. This study looks at various components of climate change literacy within a cohort of university students and investigates the impact of action-oriented learning on student understanding. Results from questionnaires given to primarily nonscience students enrolled in weather and climate courses are used to examine student knowledge of climate change. In agreement with prior research, this study finds that signif icant student misconceptions exist regarding the causes …
Multimodel Projections Of Stratospheric Ozone In The 21st Century, V. Eyring, D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, Eugene C. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Multimodel Projections Of Stratospheric Ozone In The 21st Century, V. Eyring, D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, Eugene C. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of …
Multimodel Projections Of Stratospheric Ozone In The 21st Century, V. Eyring, D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, Eugene C. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Multimodel Projections Of Stratospheric Ozone In The 21st Century, V. Eyring, D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, Eugene C. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of …
An Ozone-Modified Refractive Index For Vertically Propagating Planetary Waves, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero
An Ozone-Modified Refractive Index For Vertically Propagating Planetary Waves, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] An ozone-modified refractive index (OMRI) is derived for vertically propagating planetary waves using a mechanistic model that couples quasigeostrophic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio. The OMRI clarifies how wave-induced heating due to ozone photochemistry, ozone transport, and Newtonian cooling (NC) combine to affect wave propagation, attenuation, and drag on the zonal mean flow. In the photochemically controlled upper stratosphere, the wave-induced ozone heating (OH) always augments the NC, whereas in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, the wave-induced OH may augment or reduce the NC depending on the detailed nature of the wave vertical structure and zonal mean …
An Ozone-Modified Refractive Index For Vertically Propagating Planetary Waves, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero
An Ozone-Modified Refractive Index For Vertically Propagating Planetary Waves, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] An ozone-modified refractive index (OMRI) is derived for vertically propagating planetary waves using a mechanistic model that couples quasigeostrophic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio. The OMRI clarifies how wave-induced heating due to ozone photochemistry, ozone transport, and Newtonian cooling (NC) combine to affect wave propagation, attenuation, and drag on the zonal mean flow. In the photochemically controlled upper stratosphere, the wave-induced ozone heating (OH) always augments the NC, whereas in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, the wave-induced OH may augment or reduce the NC depending on the detailed nature of the wave vertical structure and zonal mean …
Stratospheric Variability And Trends In Models Used For The Ipcc Ar4, P. M. De F. Forster, Eugene Cordero
Stratospheric Variability And Trends In Models Used For The Ipcc Ar4, P. M. De F. Forster, Eugene Cordero
Eugene C. Cordero
Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their …
Assessment Of Temperature, Trace Species, And Ozone In Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations Of The Recent Past, V. Eyring, N. Butchart, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, G. E. Bodeker, B. A. Boville, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, M. Deushi, V. E. Fioletov, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, L. Jourdain, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, M. Marchand, D. R. Marsh, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, R. S. Stolarski, H. Struthers, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Assessment Of Temperature, Trace Species, And Ozone In Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations Of The Recent Past, V. Eyring, N. Butchart, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, G. E. Bodeker, B. A. Boville, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, M. Deushi, V. E. Fioletov, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, L. Jourdain, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, M. Marchand, D. R. Marsh, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, R. S. Stolarski, H. Struthers, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but …
Stratospheric Variability And Trends In Models Used For The Ipcc Ar4, P. M. De F. Forster, Eugene Cordero
Stratospheric Variability And Trends In Models Used For The Ipcc Ar4, P. M. De F. Forster, Eugene Cordero
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their …
Assessment Of Temperature, Trace Species, And Ozone In Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations Of The Recent Past, V. Eyring, N. Butchart, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, G. E. Bodeker, B. A. Boville, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, M. Deushi, V. E. Fioletov, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, L. Jourdain, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, M. Marchand, D. R. Marsh, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, R. S. Stolarski, H. Struthers, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Assessment Of Temperature, Trace Species, And Ozone In Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations Of The Recent Past, V. Eyring, N. Butchart, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, G. E. Bodeker, B. A. Boville, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, M. Deushi, V. E. Fioletov, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, L. Jourdain, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, M. Marchand, D. R. Marsh, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, R. S. Stolarski, H. Struthers, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but …
A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 1/2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical …
A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 1/2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical …
Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly
Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] A three-dimensional chemical transport model is utilized to study the transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex during the southern hemisphere spring. On average, over five consecutive years between 1993 and 1997, horizontal transport out of the vortex into the midlatitude stratosphere is smaller than vertical transport into the troposphere. However, there is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of mass exchange, which is related to year-to-year fluctuations in planetary wave activity. In 1994 the net loss of the vortex tracer mass in September is similar to that in October. However, the relative mass flux entering the midlatitude stratosphere …
Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly
Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] A three-dimensional chemical transport model is utilized to study the transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex during the southern hemisphere spring. On average, over five consecutive years between 1993 and 1997, horizontal transport out of the vortex into the midlatitude stratosphere is smaller than vertical transport into the troposphere. However, there is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of mass exchange, which is related to year-to-year fluctuations in planetary wave activity. In 1994 the net loss of the vortex tracer mass in September is similar to that in October. However, the relative mass flux entering the midlatitude stratosphere …
An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
Eugene C. Cordero
[1] Observations from both ground-based and satellite instruments show record low column ozone abundance between 20°S and 40°S during 1997. The 1997 monthly averaged column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is up to 25 Dobson units (DU) lower than the TOMS climatological mean (1979–1996) and up to 20 DU below the previous record low values. Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show that below average ozone concentrations during 1997 were confined primarily to the lower stratosphere. Residual circulation statistics calculated from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office temperature analyses indicate that circulation anomalies during 1997 can account for …
An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan
Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science
[1] Observations from both ground-based and satellite instruments show record low column ozone abundance between 20°S and 40°S during 1997. The 1997 monthly averaged column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is up to 25 Dobson units (DU) lower than the TOMS climatological mean (1979–1996) and up to 20 DU below the previous record low values. Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show that below average ozone concentrations during 1997 were confined primarily to the lower stratosphere. Residual circulation statistics calculated from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office temperature analyses indicate that circulation anomalies during 1997 can account for …