Meteorology Commons^™

Development Of A "Multi-Cut" Payload For Use In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Joey Habeck, Noah Biniek, Steven Smeaton, Austin Langford, Jordan Diers, Isaac Krieger

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

The ability to cut strings (AKA lines) during stratospheric ballooning missions has a wide variety of uses including, but not limited to, (a) flight termination (i.e. cutting payloads away from the main balloon), (b) cutting away excess lift balloon(s) to slow ascent rate (and possibly achieve float), (c) cutting away ballast weights to slow descent rate or increase ascent rate, (d) cutting away burst balloon(s) on descent to avoid parachute entanglement, and (e) cutting away payloads which are intended to return to the ground independently, for experimental purposes. We report on the development of a “multi-cut” payload box that uses …

Analyzing Accuracy Of The Lufft Ws600 In Remotely Measuring Precipitation Events, Justin Gay

STAR Program Research Presentations

The goal of this project was to analyze the accuracy of the Lufft WS600 Weather Sensor in measuring the rate of both liquid and solid precipitation. Measurement accuracy, especially in remote locations, can be difficult to obtain and quantify. Wind, blowing debris, and atmospheric particles can all have the capacity to interfere with instruments that are not being continuously compared to manual observations. Access to quality precipitation data sets are important for both hydrologic and weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and understanding the role of water cycling through ecosystems. Commercially, weather sensors are heavily relied upon by the Federal Aviation Administration …

Wind Climatology: A Study Of Trends On Rodgers' Dry Lakebed, Dana Coppernoll-Houston

STAR Program Research Presentations

A number of smaller projects at the Armstrong Flight Research Center fly on or close to the ground and are subject to ground-level winds. Many of these are new prototype models, such as PRANDTL-D (Preliminary Research Aerodynamic Design to Lower Drag). Waiting for the right conditions on a day of variable winds can sometimes mean that teams fail to complete testing. A strategic analysis of wind behavior at a locations where winds can vary greatly due to terrain could lend insight into the best times to test for near-ground aircraft. The purpose of this project was to data mine historical …

Elevation Data And Mapping Updates, Doug Marcy

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Noaa Inundation Dashboard, Audra Luscher, Paul Fanelli

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Agenda, Hr Adaptation Forum

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Total Water Level And Wave Run Up Forecast, Eric Seymour

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

The Influence Of Model Resolution On The Simulated Sensitivity Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity To Sea Surface Temperature, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Timothy Larow, Hiroyuki Murakami, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Variations In Satellite Derived Sea Ice And Snow Coverage In The Arctic, Haylie N. Mikulak

UCARE: Research Products

The work is an investigation on the variations of satellite derived sea ice and snow cover extents in the Arctic region from 1979-2012. The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Hemisphere Snow and Ice Earth System Data Record is examined in order to find variations of Northern Hemispheric sea ice and snow cover extents and impacts each extent may have not only on one another as well as the changing atmospheric conditions over the study period. Extent patterns and extreme circumstances defined by this study are identified in order for future studies to examine …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Surface Cooling Due To Precipitation In The Tropics, Camila Gomes Martins Ramos

Theses and Dissertations

Precipitation is an important component of the global hydrological cycle. It affects the upper ocean salinity by adding freshwater to the ocean. In addition, precipitation plays a role in cooling the ocean and land surfaces, when the temperature of the raindrops is lower than the temperature of the surface. However, the surface cooling due to precipitation (QP) remains an overlooked feature and is not included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. One might expect that heavy precipitation events may lead to large QP, which can impact the surface temperature, surface energy balance, and local- to regional-scale circulations. …

Predicting General Aviation Pilots’ Weather-Related Performance Through A Scenario-Based Written Assessment, Jessica Cruit

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Weather-related accidents continue to challenge the general aviation community and with the development of advanced weather technology, GA pilots need additional education and training on how to effectively use these weather products to ensure flight safety. Currently, the literature on aviation weather suggests that there is a gap in both training and assessment strategy for GA pilots. Furthermore, several studies suggest that there needs to be more assessment of weather-related scenario/application questions for the private pilot’s written knowledge exam in order to assess a deeper level of knowledge for weather-related material. The purpose of this study is to design a …

Applying Newton’S Law Of Cooling When The Target Keeps Changing Temperature, Such As In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Kaye Smith, Erick Agrimson

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

Newton’s Law of Cooling describes how a “small” system, such as a thermometer, comes to thermal equilibrium with a “large” system, such as its environment, as a function of time. It is typically applied when the environment is in thermal equilibrium and the conditions are such that the thermal decay time for the thermometer is a constant. Neither of these conditions are met when measuring environmental (i.e. atmospheric) temperature using a thermometer mounted in a payload lofted into the stratosphere under weather balloons. In this situation the thermometer is in motion so it encounters layer after layer of atmosphere which …

Modeling And Satellite Remote Sensing Of The Meteorological Impacts Of Irrigation During The 2012 Central Plains Drought, Clint Aegerter

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

As irrigation is increasingly needed for agricultural production, it is becoming progressively more important to understand not only how irrigation impacts water availability, but how the introduction of this water into the soil impacts weather and climate through land-atmosphere interactions. In the summer of 2012, the Central Plains of the United States experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. This study examines the meteorological impacts of irrigation during this drought through observations and model simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM) coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A simple parameterization of irrigation processes is added …

Meeting The Dod’S Tactical Weather Needs Using Cubesats, Shayna K. Mckenney

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates a CubeSat design that uses Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components to capture, store, process, and downlink collected terrestrial weather data at resolutions near stat-of-the-art. The weather phenomena to be detected and transmitted in a timely manner are cloud formations, wind profiles, ocean currents, sea state, lightning, temperature profiles, and precipitation. It is hypothesized and shown that the proposed design will provide an improvement on the current U.S. tactical weather collection satellites because of the anticipated increased reliability and lowered cost to build and maintain the proposed CubeSat constellation. The methodology employed a multi-phase approach through the collective research of …

Umphlett Qci June 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Limited Frost Damage to Crops this Spring

Wet Conditions Cause Mixed Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

The Influence Of Tropical Cyclones On Droughts And Warm Season Precipitation In Tennessee And Kentucky, Lamar S. Coats

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The Southeast United States during summer and fall is often affected by droughts and tropical cyclones. Both phenomena rank among the most expensive of natural hazards, although droughts are not as feared by the public as hurricanes. When a tropical cyclone causes a pendulum swing from drought to wet conditions, it is known as a “drought-busting tropical cyclone.” The majority of the research related to drought busting tropical cyclones investigates only the storms during their tropical cyclone phase, which covers the southeastern states that have boundaries adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean. An unanswered question from this literature is whether or …

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Seagrass Community Change At Three High Risk Ports In The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area From 2005 To 2014, Celeste Venolia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Seagrass meadows are extremely valuable and dynamic ecosystems currently facing pressure from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrass ecosystems are declining globally because of direct and indirect threats that shift environmental conditions controlling seagrass distribution. Seagrass species responses to disturbances vary based on a number of factors including life history strategy. The goal of this study was to map and analyze patterns of dominant seagrass species change at Cairns and Gladstone from 2005-2014 and Townsville from 2007-2014. This compilation data set was symbolized according to the life history strategy of the species. The major disturbances during this time period were physical damage from …

Polarimetric Radar Signatures Of Supercell Thunderstorms In Tropical Cyclones, Emily Paltz, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE: Research Products

Background It is necessary for operational meteorologists to forecast quickly and accurately when storms have the potential of producing severe weather such as tornadoes or hail. Presently, radar represents the most effective way to monitor storms in real time. The National Weather Service recently upgraded the national radar network to polarimetric capability. Much time and resources have been devoted to understanding the development of Great Plains supercells such that polarimetric radar schematics have been developed for them. Little, however, has been done for tropical cyclone supercells. In this study we wish to determine typical polarimetric radar structure for supercells in …

Forecast Verification Of The Current Icing Potential (Cip) To Predict Lightning Hazards At U.S. Spaceports, Robert Edward Haley

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Government spaceports employ extensive lightning detection networks that may not be available at commercial spaceports. Therefore, the Federal Aviation Administration identified the need for diagnosing the threat of triggered lightning without in-situ measurements. Anecdotal observations of the Aviation Weather Center’s Current Icing Potential (CIP) diagnostic model indicated a potentially high correlation between lightning activity and icing potential. A forecast verification study and supporting representative case studies were conducted to quantify the CIP’s ability to diagnose existing lightning hazards. The study showed that high positive statistical correlations between the CIP and lightning activity do exist, but so do negative correlations. During …

Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King

Theses and Dissertations

Summer thunderstorms pose the greatest forecast challenge for the United States Air Force's 96th Weather Flight (96WF) which provides weather support for Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). Located on Florida's panhandle, Eglin AFB encompasses the Department of Defense's largest range complex which covers 134,000 sq mi (347,000 sq km) of water and 724 sq mi (1875 sq km) of land. Due to the base's coastal location and unique coastline geometry, sea breeze is a dominant forecast consideration for thunderstorms. The 96 WF currently utilizes an empirical method, called WINNDEX, developed by former staff meteorologist Roger Winn to aid in thunderstorm …

The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns

Theses and Dissertations

The Ensemble Prediction Suites (EPS) used at the 557th Weather Wing (557 WW) provide probability based forecasts for thousands of worldwide locations. Point Ensemble Probability (PEP) bulletins are tailored specifically to the United States military and its criteria for operationally significant weather. This study assesses the performance of PEPs from each EPS at 17 Continental United States (CONUS) locations. Results from April to October of 2015 show that each EPS is underforecasting ceilings and visibility for most forecast hours at several locations. The underforecasting of ceilings is most severe at Vandenberg AFB, an area prone to frequent marine layer fog …

How Can Agroforestry Help Landowners Adapt To Increased Rain Intensity?

Working Trees (USDA-NAC)

Agroforestry practices can help landowners adapt to increased rain intensity.

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Impacts Of Bias Correction Of Wind Forecasts On Hydrodynamic And Wave Model Predictions, Robert J. Weaver, Peyman Taeb, Bryan P. Holman, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Atousa Saberi, Jeff Colvin

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are forced by surface wind output from operational met. models. Current suite of operational met. models do not have the spatial resolution needed to resolve the fine scale processes associated with complex estuarine wind-driven circulation nor a detailed land-water mask. Goal: improve forecast wind forcing in most efficient manner as possible

New Metric For Defining The Time Of Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones, Ajay Raghavendra, Shawn M. Milrad

Publications

Almost half of all tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic basin undergo extratropical transition (ET). During an ET event, wind fields often expand dramatically, resulting in more widely-felt impacts. Moreover, the heaviest precipitation typically shifts to the left-of-center (LOC), which can result in inland flash flooding hundreds of kilometers from the cyclone center. While several objective metrics to track and predict ET have been developed, they rely at least partially on internal tropical cyclone structure, for which numerical models show less skill. Further, these metrics fail to account for static stability, which plays a vital role in determining precipitation amounts. …

Analysis Of The Precipitation Detection Algorithm For The Geonor T-200b Precipitation Gauge To Improve Accuracy, Megan Lerman, Robert K. Goodrich

STAR Program Research Presentations

In an effort to improve the precipitation detection algorithm for the Geonor All Weather Precipitation Gauge, an automated truth algorithm has been created to detect errors in the original algorithm. The original algorithm detects precipitation in real time and uses the rate of precipitation to indicate an event. The automated truth does not detect in real time, and focuses on precipitation accumulation to indicate an event. Since the automated truth is delayed, it is able to consider the data collected before and after the point it is analyzing. The automated truth is already more accurate than the original algorithm but …

Environmental Controls On Pyrocumulus And Pyrocumulonimbus Initiation And Development, Neil Lareau, Craig Clements

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

In this paper we present the first direct observational evidence that the condensation level in pyrocumulus and pyrocumulonimbus clouds can be significantly higher than the ambient lifted condensation level. In addition, we show that the environmental thermodynamic profile, day-to-day variations in humidity, and ambient wind shear all exert significant influence over the onset and development of pyroconvective clouds. These findings are established using a scanning Doppler lidar and mobile radiosonde system during two large wildfires in northern California, the Bald Fire and the Rocky Fire. The lidar is used to distinguish liquid water from smoke backscatter during the plume rise, …