Meteorology Commons^™

2018 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Gis Modeling Of The Prominent Geohazards In Arkansas, Kyle Walker Rowden

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The State of Arkansas is prone to numerous geohazards. This thesis is a twofold study of prominent geohazards in Arkansas: the first fold includes a novel triggerless approach for mass wasting susceptibility modeling applied to the Boston Mountains in NW Arkansas, and the second fold is a GIS-based regression modeling of the extreme weather patterns at the state level. Each study fold is presented in this thesis as a separate chapter embracing a published peer-reviewed paper. In the first paper, I have used the analytical hierarchy process to assign preliminary statistical weights to the most cogent variables influencing mass wasting …

An Analysis Of Urban Heat Islands In Kentucky, Logan Mitchell

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The purpose of this research is to increase understanding of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Kentucky by studying its three largest cities: Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green. By examining the UHIs of these three cities, two major attributes can be determined: if there is a relationship between the size of the city by population and the UHI magnitude, and if UHI magnitude follows any diurnal and/or seasonal cycles. Data was collected from weather stations within the three major cities, as well as from weather stations located in the rural areas surrounding them. The length of the time series …

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

Mathematics Of The Significant Tornado Parameter, Aaron Baker

Undergraduate Research Conference

The idea of this project came from my curiosity of weather and especially how severe storms are predicted. There are many parameters used to predict severe weather that use mathematical formulas. After sorting through the parameters, the STP was the one selected due to its use of other parameters for prediction of tornadoes, as well as concepts used in Single and Multi-Variable Calculus, such as areas between curves and vector magnitude and direction, and learning how to use new graphs than what is normally used.

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

2018 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change

Concorde Meteorological Analysis (Cma) - Data Guide, Patrick Fitzpatrick, Yee H. Lau

Faculty Publications

CONCORDE is the CONsortium for oil spill exposure pathways in COastal River-Dominated Ecosystems (CONCORDE), and is an interdisciplinary research program funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) to conduct scientific studies of the impacts of oil, dispersed oil and dispersant on the Gulf’s ecosystem (Greer et al. 2018). A CONCORDE goal is to implement a synthesis model containing circulation and biogeochemistry components of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf system which can ultimately aid in prediction of oil spill transport and impacts.

The CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) is an hourly gridded NetCDF dataset which provides atmospheric forcing for …

Introduction To Weather And Climate (Vsu), Jason Allard, Weimin Feng

Geological Sciences and Geography Grants Collections

This Grants Collection for Introduction to Weather and Climate was created under a Round Seven ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.

Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:

• Linked Syllabus
• Initial Proposal
• Final Report

The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza

Theses and Dissertations

Strong winds from downbursts pose a significant hazard to personnel and launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The CCAFS/KSC complex has a robust mesonet from which an 18 year (1995-2012) warm-season convective wind climatology (WSCWC) was developed (Koermer 2017). While the frequency of downbursts in the area has been determined, the frequency at the individual tower locations has not. The 5-minute peak wind data from the WSCWC was analyzed to determine the geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida. For this project a downburst was determined by the threshold of …

Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins

Theses and Dissertations

Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …

A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger

Theses and Dissertations

Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …

Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks In The Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies From The 1840s, Emily L. Cerrito

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Analyzing past tropical cyclone activity enables researchers to recognize patterns of hurricane variability, estimate hurricane return periods, and assess local risk to future storms. This paleotempestology study used original primary data to make the historical record as comprehensive and accurate as possible for three major hurricanes: October 1844, October 1846, and September 1848. This thesis presents the reconstructed storm tracks, assesses the societal impacts, and evaluates the storm intensity of these three major hurricanes for the eastern U.S. and Cuba. The data utilized in this study include ship logbooks, newspapers, diaries, and instrumental meteorological records. A geographic information system (GIS) …

Ceilometer Measurements From The University Of Western Ontario Of Smoke From The Extraordinary Fires Of 2017 In Western Canada, Achini J K Abayakoon Ms.

Western Research Forum

Background:

The summer of 2017 saw many fires in Western Canada. Smoke from these fires was transported by winds over to London and was measured using a Lufft CHM15k ceilometer which was installed at the Cronyn Observatory of The University of Western Ontario.

Methods:

The cloud base height can be calculated by the time taken for the backscatter signal to reach the transmitter while the backscatter effects can be used to determine the atmospheric structure using the principle of light detection and ranging (LiDAR).

Results:

Smoke particle concentrations over London, Ontario were observed within 72 hours of the fires taking …

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Estimation Of Pm2.5 In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Modis Aod And Meteorological Data Using The Back Propagation Neural Network, Xialing Ni, Chunxiang Cao, Yuke Zhou, Xianghui Cui, Ramesh Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

With the economic growth and increasing urbanization in the last three decades, the air quality over China has continuously degraded, which poses a great threat to human health. The concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly affects the mortality of people living in the polluted areas where air quality is poor. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the well organized urban regions in northern China, has suffered with poor air quality and atmospheric pollution due to recent growth of the industrial sector and vehicle emissions. In the present study, we used the back propagation neural network model approach to estimate …

Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, Sam Lashley

Purdue Road School

The National Weather Service is working with core partners to build a Weather Ready Nation for present and future generations by taking advanced action against the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation and flooding. One way in which this can be accomplished is by studying trends in historical weather data and applying what we learn to future mitigation efforts. The goal is to gain a better understanding of the magnitude and impacts that future extreme precipitation events may have on local infrastructure.

This presentation will review extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred across Indiana along …

2018 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …

Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in …

Caves As Observatories For Atmospheric Thermal Tides: An Example From Ascunsă Cave, Romania, Virgil Drăgușin, Laura Tîrlă, Nicoleta Cadicheanu, Vasile Ersek, Ionuț Mirea

International Journal of Speleology

As part of a microclimate study at Ascunsă Cave, Romania, we used Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data loggers to record cave air temperature variability. At one of the monitoring points we recognized the presence of semidiurnal cycles on the order of a few thousands of a degree Celsius that could be produced under the influence of the semidiurnal tidal components of the Sun (S₂) or the Moon (M₂). Using a Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data logger with an external probe we measured core rock temperature and showed that it does not influence the cave air temperature …

The O2/N2 Ratio And Co2 Airborne Southern Ocean Study, Britton Stephens, Matthew Long, Ralph Keeling, Eric Kort, Colm Sweeney, Eric Apel, Elliot Atlas, Stuart Beaton, Jonathan Bent, Nicola Blake, James Bresch, Joanna Casey, Bruce Daube, Minghui Diao, Ernesto Diaz, Heidi Dierssen, Valeria Donets, Bo-Cai Gao, Michelle Gierach, Robert Green, Justin Haag, Matthew Hayman, Alan Hills, Martín Hoecker-Martínez, Shawn Honomichl, Rebecca Hornbrook, Jorgen Jensen, Rong-Rong Li, Ian Mccubbin, Kathryn Mckain, Eric Morgan, Scott Nolte, Jordan Powers, Bryan Rainwater, Kaylan Randolph, Mike Reeves, Sue Schauffler, Katherine Smith, Mackenzie Smith, Jeff Stith, Gregory Stossmeister, Darin Toohey, Andrew Watt

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by mediating atmosphere–ocean partitioning of heat and carbon dioxide. However, Earth system models are demonstrably deficient in the Southern Ocean, leading to large uncertainties in future air–sea CO2 flux projections under climate warming and incomplete interpretations of natural variability on interannual to geologic time scales. Here, we describe a recent aircraft observational campaign, the O2/N2 Ratio and CO2 Airborne Southern Ocean (ORCAS) study, which collected measurements over the Southern Ocean during January and February 2016. The primary research objective of the ORCAS campaign was to improve observational constraints …

2018 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Hurricane Fred (2015): Cape Verde's First Hurricane In Modern Times: Observations, Impacts, And Lessons Learned, Gregory Jenkins, Ester Brito, Emanuel Soares, Sen Chiao, Jose Lima, Benvendo Tavares, Angelo Cardoso, Francisco Evora, Maria Monteiro

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

During 31 August 2015, Hurricane Fred traversed through the Cape Verde islands, passing near Boa Vista and possibly making landfall over São Nicolau during the evening hours. Hurricane Fred was a category 1 storm with maximum winds of 75 kt and a sea level pressure of 986 hPa during 31 August. The African easterly wave associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Fred emerged from Guinea on 29 August and was named Tropical Storm Fred on 30 August. Prior to impacting Cape Verde, the storm caused the sinking of a ship and the loss of seven lives off the coast of Guinea-Bissau …

2018 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

The Influence Of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections On The Geography Of Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Nicholas Ray Adkins

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

The research in this thesis used statistical and spatial analysis methods to test the influence of six Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on the latitude and longitude components of tropical cyclogenesis occurring in the eastern and western North Pacific Ocean basins for the period 1979-2016. The Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnection patterns were examined independently and in combination for association with variations in cyclogenesis geography. Four of the six teleconnection patterns were found to exert an influence on cyclogenesis latitude and/or longitude in …

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape, Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado

Drought and water crisis book updated

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs

New staff at the NDMC

Drought Summit in photos

The General Aviation Pilot Preflight Weather Planning: Weather Products Usability & Limitations, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nicholas Defilippis, Thomas A. Guinn, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas Robert

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Over the last 30 years, a large percentage of weather-related aviation accidents have occurred under General Aviation (GA) operations (FAA, 2010; Fultz & Ashley, 2016; AOPA, 2008).

• Novice Private Pilots VFR into IMC
• High Risk For Incurring Fatality

Aviation Weather Challenges

1. Difficult to interpret Aviation Weather Products
2. Pilot's Decision Making Biases and Errors
3. GA Pilots' Lack of Aviation Weather Experience