Risk Analysis Commons^™

Theory-Informed Generative Agents For Human Behavioral Modeling In Disasters, Liming Lu

All Dissertations

This dissertation develops a theory-informed generative-agent framework for modeling human behavioral decisions in disasters. Existing flood and disaster preparedness models often emphasize physical hazards, infrastructure exposure, or statistical correlations, but they struggle to capture the heterogeneous and evolving choices households make. This limitation is especially important for climate-related hazards, where future damage depends not only on changes in rainfall, inundation, and urban development, but also on decentralized protective actions such as house elevation, flood insurance, evacuation, and early preparedness. The dissertation integrates two empirical studies: a flood-risk study in Charleston, South Carolina, and a household disaster-preparedness study across hurricane contexts. …

Stop Blaming My Users: Illumination Of The Technocentric Mythos Bias, Ervin H. Frenzel, Richard Lightcap

Journal of Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

 Abstract -This conceptual essay addresses the need for systemic and systematic transdisciplinary analytical techniques within cybersecurity and technical security. This conceptual essay is contingent upon recognition that cybersecurity is not simply technical in nature, it does not need an adversary, and more importantly it is based upon systems engineering and systems thinking.  The essay contributes a socio-technical attribution chain and field-specific ontology/taxonomy which distinguish user-triggered events from root causes, latent conditions, technical debt, validation failures, governance failures, and attribution bias before assigning responsibility to end users. It systematically defines an ontology inclusive of developer technical debt, organizational debt arising from …

Design And Implementation Of Cyber Risk Management In The Indonesian Aviation Sector Based On Nist Csf And Iso/Iec 27002:2022, Annisa Aulia Budianti Qurota'aini, Ira Rosianal Hikmah, Yulial Hikmah

Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia

As technology usage increases, cyberspace in Indonesia has developed significantly, including in Vital Information Infrastructure (VII) sectors such as aviation. However, this advancement introduces potential cyber threats that can disrupt operations. This research aims to design a systematic cyber risk management framework for a navigation authority within the Indonesian aviation sector using the National Institute of Standards and Technology Cybersecurity Framework (NIST CSF) as the primary standard. This research also utilizes national aviation regulations, Center for Internet Security Controls (CIS Controls) v8.0, and ISO/IEC 27002:2022 as supporting frameworks. The research employs a qualitative descriptive approach, gathering data through field observations, …

Analysis Of Construction Safety Costs In Girder Erection Work On Toll Road Projects To Reduce Risks And Construction Accident Costs, Aditya Daniar Wicaksono, Rossy Armyn Machfudiyanto

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

The construction of toll roads, as part of Indonesia’s National Strategic Projects, plays a crucial role in enhancing mobility and economic competitiveness. Girder erection work constitutes one of the most critical phases in toll road bridge construction, characterized by high safety risks due to confined workspaces, technical complexity, and suboptimal risk management practices. This study aims to analyze construction safety costs in girder erection work to reduce risks and construction accident costs. The research process includes hazard identification, effective risk control analysis, risk impact valuation, and cost-benefit analysis of safety investments. The methods employed consist of secondary data analysis, risk …

Physicochemical Properties And Chemical Compositions Of Cashew Nut Shell Liquid Extracted With Carbon Dioxide–Expanded Hexane, Neema Msuya, Joseph Yn Philip, Frank Jacob, Kando K. Janga

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) is a mixture of phenolic compounds that can effectively replace commercially available phenols in various applications. This study investigated the physicochemical properties and chemical composition of CNSL extracted using CO₂–expanded hexane (CXH) and compared to the traditional Soxhlet extraction method. Steamed cashew nut shells (sCNS) were used in both cases.  The CXH was carried under varying CO₂-mole fractions (0.468-0.892) and temperatures (20-36 °C) whereas Soxhlet extraction was performed at atmospheric pressure and hexane boiling point. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) with Central Composite Face-Centred Design (CCFD) was employed to evaluate the effect …

The Impact Of Gender Sensitization On Requirements Elicitation: A Controlled Experiment, Ruthbertha Kateule, Salome Maro, Leonard Peter Binamungu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Previous studies in software engineering have reported the importance of considering gender aspects in various software engineering activities, including requirements engineering, however, to the best of our knowledge, no work has investigated the impact of gender sensitisation on eliciting gender inclusive software requirements. The objective of this study was to understand the impact of gender sensitisation on software requirements elicitation. We conducted a controlled experiment using 40 undergraduate students from three different computing programs at the University of Dar es Salaam. The 40 participants were divided into 9 groups with both males and females. The participants were asked to elicit …

Enhancing Community Engagement Through ‘Nitunze Kilombero’ Mobile App: Case Of Climate Land Use And Cover Management For Kilombero Basin, Ghanima Chanzi, Subira Munishi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The Kilombero Basin in southeastern Tanzania faces significant challenges due to rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by climate change, population growth, and unsustainable farming practices. This study assessed the role of community engagement and digital reporting through the 'NITUNZE KILOMBERO', mobile application in supporting water resources management in the basin. The App facilitates real-time reporting of environmental issues, provides educational resources, and enables collaboration between local communities and authorities. A mixed-methods approach, including household surveys and key informant interviews, was employed to assess the app's effectiveness. Results indicate high community awareness of LULC impacts, with 85% …

Integrasi Metodologi Hazop Dalam Pengendalian Risiko Dan Keberlanjutan Operasional Pada Unit Pemulihan Urea: Studi Kasus Pada Industri Pupuk, Riny Yolandha Parapat, Arin Nur'aini Putri, Aryasatya Ramadhan Sukresno

National Journal of Occupational Health and Safety

The fertilizer industry is one of the chemical sectors with high-risk potential due to its operational processes involving hazardous materials as well as extreme pressure and temperature conditions. This study aims to identify and analyze hazards in the urea recovery unit using the Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) method, while also formulating effective risk control strategies to support the operational sustainability of the plant. The study was conducted directly at a commercial fertilizer plant in West Java using a semi-quantitative approach, which included field observations, review of technical documents such as Process Flow Diagrams (PFD), Piping and Instrumentation Diagrams (P&ID), …

Past Present, & Future: Bushwick Inlet Redevelopment, Aaryan Nair

Publications and Research

This report examines how ecosystem structure, hydrology, and material flows in Williamsburg, Brooklyn have changed from pre-colonial conditions to the present and how they are expected to evolve under future climate change. Prior to European colonization, the landscape functioned as a forest–wetland mosaic with high infiltration capacity, slow water movement, and strong nutrient retention. These conditions supported stable aquatic ecosystems and minimized pollutant transport to the East River.

Modern urbanization has fundamentally altered this system. Impervious surfaces and engineered drainage systems have shifted hydrology from infiltration-dominated to runoff-dominated pathways, producing rapid “flashy” flows and reducing water residence time.

Storm events …

Cal Poly Fluid Powered Vehicle Challenge 2025/2026, Ethan Malachi Nejame Zeiset, Christian Anthony Cuamani, Daniel Chacon-Bizarro, Marcus Minera, Bradley Hansell

Mechanical Engineering

In this Final Design Report, the Cal Poly Fluid Power Vehicle Challenge Contending Team competed in Sun Hydraulics’ 2026 Fluid Powered Vehicle Challenge. The objective of the competition is to expose college students to the fluid power sector, the “hidden giant” of the engineering industry. Specifically, student teams are tasked with the development of a human-powered, fluid-driven vehicle for use in various competitive settings. The team prioritized the optimization of an existing prototype for simplicity, ease of maintenance, and reliability during the competition. The existing prototype exhibited issues related to the main frame’s deflection under load, a lack of gear …

Modeling Psychological And Demographic Predictors Of Analog Astronaut Mission Participation, Christian Yeara Herrero, Frányerson R. López Ochoa, Mackenzie Thomas, Phoebe Fleshman

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

As plans accelerate to send humans into orbit and to other celestial bodies, whether to lunar outposts, Mars bases, or commercial space stations, it becomes increasingly important to understand how to maintain healthy, cohesive, and productive crews in confined, isolated environments. A practical way to study human adaptation to these conditions is through analog astronaut missions on Earth. Although imperfect, these facilities provide the closest Earth-based simulation of space mission conditions. Currently, over ten analog research centers are operating worldwide, including NASA’s Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) and the Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog (CHAPEA) habitats. Selecting and recruiting …

Center For Manufacturing Excellence Capstone Project: Critter Catchers, Wilson R. Eatherly, Sophie C. Smith, Joyce W. Nkanor

Honors Theses

The Haley Barbour Center for Manufacturing Excellence annually presents seniors with the opportunity to do a capstone project that encapsulates their skills learned throughout undergraduate coursework. The interdisciplinary teams are made up of engineering, accounting, and business students. These students bring their skill sets together to come up with a business plan for the project they have been placed on. This team, Critter Catchers, chose to manufacture non-lethal animal traps meant to be a safe alternative to traps on the market that may injure animals. The trap was made primarily out of wood and operated by means of a pressure-triggered …

Modeling Individual Self-Protective Behavior During Epidemics, Geonsik Yu, Michael J. Garee, Mario Ventresca, Yuehwern Yih

Faculty Publications

Protecting public health from infectious diseases requires collective action, as individual behaviors—such as vaccination and mask-wearing—directly influence disease dynamics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, unexpected public responses often undermined the effectiveness of interventions, highlighting the need to understand collective behavioral patterns and motivations to design more effective mitigation strategies. This study presents an agent-based simulation model that captures how individuals adjust self-protective behaviors based on evolving opinions about disease risk and examines how these decisions interact with external factors, such as public health interventions, to shape collective outcomes. To improve the representativeness of the simulated population, multiple datasets were integrated to …

Quantitative Assessment Of Cybersecurity Risk Variability Across Transportation Modes, Paulo Carreon

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Transportation systems are increasingly dependent on digital technologies, networked communications, and cyber-physical integration, making cybersecurity an important issue for operational continuity, resilience, and safety. Although cybersecurity risks in transportation are widely recognized, much of the existing research remains mode-specific and lacks a standardized quantitative framework for comparing risk across transportation systems. This study develops a quantitative, incident-based approach for assessing cybersecurity risk variability across four major transportation modes: Aviation, Maritime, Rail, and Road. The study is based on a manually constructed dataset of 189 publicly reported transportation cybersecurity incidents collected from 2000 to 2025. Each incident was coded into structured …

Inconsistencies Emerge Between Regional And Local-Scale Water Security Metrics At Military Installations, Abigail Birnbaum, Michael L. Berg, Caitlin Grady, Daniel J. Weeks, Christopher M. Chini

Faculty Publications

Recent United States federal policy for military installations has emphasized the importance of developing a standardized approach for water security assessment to monitor changes in water resources and the ability for an installation to meet both its civilian and mission needs. For military installations in the United States, these assessments must consider demands both inside and outside the installation’s fence line, as regional resources are required to meet mission readiness. Focusing on physical water scarcity, this study compares four water security metrics with unique formulations and spatial resolutions, including an installation-scale metric and multiple regional metrics defined for either baseline …

An Evaluation Of Leading Indicators In The Construction Industry And Their Relationship With Incident Rates, Kitti Miller Whalen

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Improving safety programs has been a focus of organizations for decades. Historically, focus has been directed towards lagging indicators such as recordable incident rates and experience modification rate (EMR). While these remain beneficial, they are only one component of the broader framework. In recent years, companies have started to examine what occurs prior to an incident, which are known as leading indicators. The research into leading indicators is promising, however research into the area is limited. The focus of this study is to identify which leading indicators are most strongly associated with improved incident rates in the construction industry specifically. …

Techno-Enviro-Economic Analysis Of Precipitated Calcium Carbonate Production From Carbon Dioxide In Cement Industry Flue Gas And Calcium Hydroxide, Natalia Debora Panggabean, Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

CCUS is a technological solution to reduce emissions from the cement industry, which is the second largest CO2-intensive industry. This study aims to analyze technical, economic, and environmental performance of Precipitated Calcium Carbonate (PCC) synthesis in cement industry flue gas. The process simulation includes the CO2 capture system from cement plant, CO2 captured used as feedstock for PCC synthesis process through its reaction with calcium hydroxide. The simulation was carried out using ASPEN Plus software. Technical analysis was performed to determine the CO2 capture efficiency and PCC synthesis efficiency. Economic analysis was conducted to calculate CO2 capture cost and production …

Feasibility Analysis Of Thermal Oxidizer To Determine Remaining Life Using Fitness- For-Service Level 3 Method, Yudhi Yudistirawan, Donanta Dhaneswara, Wahyuaji Narottama Putra, Gama Widyaputra, Dewi Kurnia Suci, Agung Putra Mahardhika

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

An aged thermal oxidizer (TOX) in the oil and gas industry necessitates a comprehensive evaluation to ensure its continued safe operation. This study presents a Remaining Life Assessment (RLA) and a Fitness for Service (FFS) evaluation for the four main components of the TOX, in accordance with API 510, API 579/ASME FFS-1, and ASME BPVC Section VIII Div-1 standards. The investigation includes the determination of maximum stress and maximum temperature required to assess the operational viability of the reactor. The four components are radiant, convection, transition, and stack sections—were modeled using the finite element method (FEM). Following the geometric modeling, …

Risk Identification Of Green Hydrogen Supply Chain In Ammonia Industry In Indonesia Using Delphi And Topsis Methods, Ananda Priatama, Sheila Tobing

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

The development of green hydrogen in Indonesia, while promising for supporting industrial decarbonization, remains in its early stages and faces various challenges across technical, economic, and regulatory domains. This study aims to identify and prioritize the risks linked to green hydrogen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly for applications in the ammonia industry. A set of 49 potential risk factors was initially compiled through literature review and prior studies. The Delphi method was employed with a panel of experts to validate these risks, ultimately refining the list to 27 critical risk factors. Subsequently, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to …

Assessing Passenger Electric Vehicle Growth Strategies And Their Impacts On Electricity Demand Load And Co2 Emissions In Aceh Province To Achieve Net Zero Emission Target By 2060, Taufik Hidayat, Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

The electrification of the transport sector is a crucial pathway for achieving Indonesia’s Net Zero Emissions (NZE) target by 2060. This study assesses the potential impact of passenger electric vehicle (EV) penetration on electricity demand and CO2 emissions in Aceh Province through a scenario-based modelling approach. Two policy-aligned scenarios are assessed: a low-penetration (LP) scenario and a high-penetration (HP) scenario. Using the Gompertz model and the ASIF framework, total CO2 emissions were projected from 2020 to 2060. Results show that although higher EV penetration reduces direct emissions from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, total CO2 emissions increase more significantly under …