Economics Commons^™

Testing The Weak-Form Efficiency Market Hypothesis: Evidence From Nigerian Stock Market, Gimba K. Victor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In recent years, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has witnessed an unprecedented growth in market capitalization, membership, value and volume traded. By December 2007, the All Share Index has grown massively over 57,990.2 from 1113.4 in January 1993. This rising interest in investment opportunities in the NSE raises questions about its efficiency. This paper tests the Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis of the NSE by hypothesizing Normal distribution and Random walk of the return series. Daily and weekly All Share Index and five most traded and oldest bank stocks of the NSE are examined from January 2007 to December 2009 for …

A Business Cycle Model For Nigeria, Alege O. Philip

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The current global financial meltdown draws, once again, attention to the existence of business cycle fluctuations. Experts are of the view that the ongoing crisis is far deeper than the great depression of the 1930s. It should be recalled that the Keynes and Keynesianism was a response to that depression. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a small business cycle model in the spirit of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Nigeria designed to examine the sources of business cycles, and use the model for policy analysis. This paper considers the implications of three policy shocks …

Fiscal Federalism In Nigeria: A Cluster Analysis Of Revenue Allocation To States And Local Government Areas, 1999 – 2008, Sam O. Olofin, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Bello K. Ajide, Salisu A. Afees, Olalekan S. Akinola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Existing literature on revenue allocation in Nigeria shows more concern for merits and demerits of sharing principles and /or formulae. Several alternatives have been proposed and will continue to be developed to address the unending agitations from beneficiaries. Contrary however, this paper analyzes two items of revenue (statutory and VAT) shared among the states including FCT and all the Local Government Areas (LGAs) between May 1999 and December 2008. The net statutory allocation after deductions was also analyzed. Using Cluster analysis to evaluate revenue allocation in Nigeria, States and LGAs exhibiting similarity in revenue received were grouped and their common …

Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

It is widely believed that price stability promote long-term economic growth, whereas high inflation is inimical to growth. This paper utilized a quarterly time series data for the period 1981 – 2009 to estimate a threshold level of inflation for Nigeria. Using a threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001), the study estimated a threshold inflation level of 13 per cent for Nigeria. Below the threshold level, inflation has a mild effect on economic activities, while above it, the magnitude of the negative effect of inflation on growth was high. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and …

Reactions Of Stock Market To Monetary Policy Shocks During The Global Financial Crisis: The Nigerian Case, Aliyu Shehu U.R.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper seeks to assess the reactions of Nigeria’s stock market to monetary policy innovations during the period of global financial crisis on the basis of monthly data over the period January, 2007 to August, 2011. In particular, stock market return was regressed against major monetary policy instruments; money stock (M1, and M2) and monetary policy rate (MPR). The theoretical basis for the paper stems from the works of new classical macroeconomics and rational expectation hypothesis (REH). Lucas (1972) postulated that only the unanticipated monetary shock influences real economic activity. Using the GARCH by developed Engle and Bollerslev (1986) and …

Simple Sequential Procedure For Modeling Of Item Non-Response In Econometric Analysis: Application To Cv Survey Data, William M. Fonta, Elias T. Ayuk, Eme H. Ichoku

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Item non-response occurs when respondents fail to provide answers to some or all of the questions posed during survey interviews. The standard procedure is to exclude such responses from the econometric analysis. This may be appropriate if the sample included does not differ significantly from those excluded in the analysis. If this is not the case, the econometric analyst faces a sample selection bias problem. The aim of this paper is to provide further evidence using a simple sequential procedure to deal with the problem when using non-randomly selected samples in social science research. The procedure entails different levels of …

The Effects Of Renewable Portfolio Standards And The Deregulation Of Energy Markets On Electricity Prices, Amani Chaar

Spectra Undergraduate Research Journal

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) are public policies put into effect to help alleviate the harmful consequences of air pollution. Every state has a unique form of standards corresponding to their natural resources. More states have implemented the policy to increase the generation of renewable energy; however, many stand opposed to the policy in fear that it will increase electricity prices. The influence that RPS has on the price of electricity is not entirely understood. Previous literature confirms that RPS, on average, increases prices by three percent. This paper focuses on analyzing the effect of RPS on electricity rates over a …

Legal Financial Obligations & Rehabilitation: How The Ability To Pay Fines And Fees Disproportionately Affects Citizens Based On Socioeconomic Status, Bailey R. Code

University Honors Theses

In the United States, legal financial obligations (LFO's), also known as monetary sanctions or criminal justice financial obligations, refer to the fines and fees that result from an individual’s involvement in the criminal justice system. Today, these fines and fees have become the most common form of punishment used by the United States' legal system. This paper answers the following research question: How can the ability to pay legal financial obligations shape the rehabilitation of incarcerated people in the United States?

Legal Financial Obligations are harmful to those entangled within the justice system, as shown by their cyclical nature and …

What Is The Impact Of Economic Stimulus Measures On Covid-19 Mortality Rates?, Stephanie C. Santaguida

University Honors Theses

This inquiry seeks to establish the degree to which economic stimulus measures impact COVID-19 mortality rates. There appears to be an inverse correlation between domestic social spending and COVID-19 deaths. While confirmed infections are the most reliable predictor of mortality rates, trust in government is an important factor to consider when public compliance with health directives determines the degree of epidemiological risk in each country. Although most economists agree that stimulus monies directed to low-income individuals to prevent financial collapse were appropriate, there is some dissention with regard to the type and size of such cash infusions. Nonetheless, behavioral economists …

Comments On Three Papers On Labor Market Effects Of Opportunity Zones, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Hemp Production Network Effects: Are Producers Tipped Toward Suboptimal Varietal Selection By Their Neighbors?, Tanner Mccarty, Jeffrey Young

Journal of Applied Farm Economics

The 2018 farm bill removed industrial hemp from the Schedule 1 Controlled Substance List. In response, states scrambled to enact hemp legislation. Some hemp flower producers report their hemp fields were cross- pollinated by a neighbor growing a different hemp cultivar. For hemp flower crops, cross- pollination reduces cannabinoid concentration levels within the flower; these concentration levels dictate flower price. We show that in a repeated game, once a sufficiently large percentage of growers decide to plant hemp fiber/seed crops, cross-pollination forces flower growers to convert to fiber/seed to avoid the negative network externality. Over time, a stable, suboptimal Nash …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 24, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.72% during January 2021. The indicator has risen during each of the last four months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand solidly through mid- 2021. In January, the leading indicator primarily rose due to strong business expectations. Respondents to the January Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Overall, three of the six components of the leading indicator improved during January. Airline passenger counts rose modestly, while the value of the U.S. dollar fell. A weaker dollar is positive for Nebraska businesses which compete in international …

The Biden Climate Plan, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

President Obama had an aggressive climate plan that included regulation of carbon emissions from power plants. Hillary Clinton would have continued with aggressive policies to slow and reverse global warming but was defeated by Donald Trump in 2016. President Trump sought to undo most of President Obama’s climate policies and pursued a fossil-fuel friendly energy and climate policy. The 2020 election of President Biden marks a resumption of ambitious policies to slow and ultimately reverse global warming. This newsletter identifies three major policies the Biden administration is expected to pursue and attempts to explain what policy implication might look like.

Are Stock Returns And Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests that both stock returns and economic growth are significantly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. This is a puzzle in that persistent differences in stock returns seem unlikely in efficient markets, and it is not obvious why Democrats should do better. Often these kinds of results go away upon further analysis or more data, and this appears to be true in the present case. In this paper the sample is extended to 27 administrations, from Wilson-1 through Trump. While the mean stock return under the Democrats is generally higher, none of the differences in means are significant at …

Labor Market Monopsony And Wage Inequality: Evidence From Online Labor Market Vacancies, Samuel I. Thorpe

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper estimates the effects of employer labor market power on wage inequality in the United States. I find that inequality as measured by interdecile range is 23.7% higher in perfectly monopsonistic labor markets than in perfectly competitive markets, even when controlling for commuting zone and occupation fixed effects. I also decompose these results into 50/10 and 90/50 ratios, finding much larger impacts on inequality among low earners. These results suggest that monopsony power has significant and policy-relevant impacts on wage inequality, and particularly harms the lowest earning subsets of the labor force.

Survival Pessimism And The Demand For Annuities, Cormac O'Dea, David Sturrock

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk, and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of non-annuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.

Cost Countries Pay For High Homicide Rates, Brittany Lowe

Grawemeyer Colloquium Papers

This research finds the economic cost, in terms of GDP per capita, to countries for increased violence using typical econometric models, and then makes recommendations to decision makers about funding allocation of violence prevention programs based off its findings.

The Economic Impact Of Natural Gas Unitization In West Virginia, Eric Bowen

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

In this study, we examine the potential economic impact of instituting a unitization law in West Virginia. The economic impact of natural gas unitization will depend largely on the increase in drilling and production that will come as a result of resource unitization. We define two scenarios whereby drilling activity in West Virginia is assumed to increase by either 5 percent or 10 percent above current levels. We then estimate the additional economic activity from three major sources: well construction, spending due to ongoing production, and royalties paid to rights-holders within the state.

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Middle Eastern And North African Labor Markets: Vulnerable Workers, Small Entrepreneurs, And Farmers Bear The Brunt Of The Pandemic In Morocco And Tunisia, Caroline Krafft, Ragui Assaad, Mohamed Ali Marouani

Economics & Political Science Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Is Habit A Powerful Policy Instrument To Induce Prosocial Behavioral Change?, Johann Caro-Burnett, Judith A. Chevalier, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests the power of interventions to change habits. In a dense slum in Nairobi, we adopt best practices from the habit literature to encourage toilet use instead of alternatives that damage community health. Offering subsidies increased toilet usage, effects continue for one month after discounts end, but erode thereafter. Treatments designed to induce habit formation (marketing, time-limited discounts encouraging repetition, discounts for longer periods, targeting `habitual types’) generated no greater persistence. We see some persistent behavior change due to learning about the new toilet option. It appears difficult to induce pro-social behavior without private benefits through habit change.