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Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita 2018 The Graduate Center, City University of New York

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

All Graduate Works by Year: Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our ...


Stock Market Reactions To Presidential Statements: Evidence From Company-Specific Tweets, Qi Ge, Alexander Kurov, Marketa Halova Wolfe 2018 Skidmore College

Stock Market Reactions To Presidential Statements: Evidence From Company-Specific Tweets, Qi Ge, Alexander Kurov, Marketa Halova Wolfe

Economics Faculty Scholarship

When the President of the United States tweets, do investors respond? We analyze the impact of tweets from President Trump's official Twitter accounts from November 9, 2016 to July 31, 2017 that include the name of a publicly traded company. We find that these tweets move company stock prices and increase trading volume, volatility and institutional investor attention, with a stronger impact before the presidential inauguration. The initial impact of the presidential tweets on stock prices appears to dissipate over the next few trading days. Overall, the results show that investors pay attention to presidential company-specific statements even when ...


Multiple Pollutants, Co-Benefits, And Suboptimal Environmental Policies, Don Fullerton, Daniel Karney 2017 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Multiple Pollutants, Co-Benefits, And Suboptimal Environmental Policies, Don Fullerton, Daniel Karney

Don Fullerton

In our analytical general equilibrium model, polluting inputs can be substitutes or complements. We study a tax increase on one pollutant where the other faces a tax or permit policy. Our solutions highlight key parameters and welfare effects with gains from abatement plus positive or negative co-benefits from other pollutants in the covered and uncovered sectors. We demonstrate several ways taxes and permits differ. First, the change in taxed pollutant depends on whether the other pollutant faces a tax or permit policy. Also, only with a tax on the other pollutant can a co-benefit arise. The sign of co-benefits depends ...


Contingent Judicial Deference: Theory And Application To Usury Laws, Bernardo Guimarães, Bruno Meyerhof Salama 2017 FGV Law School in Sao Paulo

Contingent Judicial Deference: Theory And Application To Usury Laws, Bernardo Guimarães, Bruno Meyerhof Salama

Bruno Meyerhof Salama

Legislation is less likely to be enforced when courts disagree with it. Building on this premise, we propose a model of Bayesian adjudicators that use their own prior knowledge to evaluate the appropriateness of legislation. The model yields a non-monotonic relation between written rules and effectively enforced rules. Hence the enactment of legislation prohibiting something raises the probability that courts will allow related things not expressly forbidden. Moreover, legal uncertainty is greater with legislation that commands little deference from courts than with legislation that commands none. We discuss examples of e§ects of legislated prohibitions (and, in particular, usury laws ...


Ceo Tenure And Corporate Misconduct: Evidence From Us Banks, John Thornton, Yener Altunbaş, Yurtsev Uymaz 2017 University of East Anglia

Ceo Tenure And Corporate Misconduct: Evidence From Us Banks, John Thornton, Yener Altunbaş, Yurtsev Uymaz

John Thornton

We test for a link between CEO tenure and misconduct by US banks. We find that banks are more likely to commit misconduct when CEOs have a relatively long tenure and banks have relatively poor balance sheets. Large and independent corporate boards can mitigate but not prevent misconduct.


Fiscal Rules And Government Borrowing Costs: International Evidence, John Thornton, Chrysovalantis Vasilakis 2017 University of Wales, Bangor

Fiscal Rules And Government Borrowing Costs: International Evidence, John Thornton, Chrysovalantis Vasilakis

John Thornton

We find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985–2010. We apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self-selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and signicant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets. The results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology, and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the “risk ...


Temperature And Human Capital In The Short- And Long-Run, Joshua Graff Zivin, Solomon Hsiang, Matthew Neidell 2017 University of California, San Diego

Temperature And Human Capital In The Short- And Long-Run, Joshua Graff Zivin, Solomon Hsiang, Matthew Neidell

Joshua Graff Zivin

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on cognitive performance and attainment, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals an imprecisely estimated effect that is significantly smaller ...


Gasto Público, Índice De Competitividad Y Política Social En México, Isaac Sánchez-Juárez 2017 Universidad Autonoma de Ciudad Juarez

Gasto Público, Índice De Competitividad Y Política Social En México, Isaac Sánchez-Juárez

Isaac Sánchez-Juárez

Para la realización de este artículo se usó el Índice de Competitividad Social (ICS) construido por el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD-México), para analizar los avances y/o retrocesos en los temas de salud, educación e ingreso laboral de las 32 entidades federativas de la República mexicana en el periodo de 2005-2014. Además, se evaluó mediante técnicas basadas en panel de datos la relación existente entre el ICS y el gasto público. Hallándose que el gasto público en materia social mantuvo una relación negativa con el ICS (la elasticidad fue -0.5764%). Asociado a lo anterior ...


Water Poverty And Its Impact On Income Poverty And Health Status In Sudan: The Case Of Gezira State (1993-2013), Mutasim Abdelmawla 2017 University of Gezira, Department of Economics

Water Poverty And Its Impact On Income Poverty And Health Status In Sudan: The Case Of Gezira State (1993-2013), Mutasim Abdelmawla

International Journal of African Development

Water resource development can address poverty, improve well-being, and enhance people's opportunities in different fields of life. Even though water resources are available in Sudan, some parts of the country still continue to face significant water provision challenges. This research is aimed at measuring water poverty in Gezira State, Sudan over the period of 1993-2013 using the methodology of Sullivan et al. (2003). The research employed data collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Khartoum, Sudan. Both descriptive and empirical approaches are used to analyze the data. The average incidence of the water poverty index (WPI) over the period ...


In Search Of Lasting Calmness: How Sustainable Is The Federal Government’S Amnesty Program As A Peace Strategy In The Niger Delta Region Of Nigeria?, Lasisi Raimi, Nwoke N. Bieh, Kidi Zorbari 2017 Federal University Otuoke, Nigeria

In Search Of Lasting Calmness: How Sustainable Is The Federal Government’S Amnesty Program As A Peace Strategy In The Niger Delta Region Of Nigeria?, Lasisi Raimi, Nwoke N. Bieh, Kidi Zorbari

International Journal of African Development

The exploitation of natural resources and the associated marginalization of indigenous occupants of areas with such endowments continue to act as major driving forces for conflicts around the world, especially in Africa. In Nigeria’s Niger Delta Region, the major triggers of resource-based violent conflicts have been the subject matter of many academics and policy analysts. With the introduction of several peace strategies especially the Federal Government of Nigeria’s Amnesty Program notwithstanding, pockets of violent activities have generated questions as to the sustainability of the program. This study examines the sustainability of the Federal Government’s Amnesty Program in ...


A Framework Towards Technology Creation In Africa: Focusing On Ghana, Martin Yao Donani, Hannatu Abue Kugblenu, Azindow Bawa Fuseini 2017 Ho Polytechnic, Ghana

A Framework Towards Technology Creation In Africa: Focusing On Ghana, Martin Yao Donani, Hannatu Abue Kugblenu, Azindow Bawa Fuseini

International Journal of African Development

Underdevelopment in Africa has been historical and a global concern coupled with the quest for good governance. Several efforts have been made in academia, national governments, the international community, and other institutional arrangements to reverse the trend. These efforts however are yet to produce a lasting result as Africa is still characterized by low productivity output, poverty and a widening technology gap when compared to other developing regions of the world. Conventional approaches used to address the African problem have consistently been devoid of indigenous technology development. Technology is here seen as paramount to every form of production on which ...


The Aid Effectiveness Architecture In Africa: An Analysis Of Aid Structures In Kenya’S Agriculture Sector, Daniel Kipleel Borter 2017 University of Melbourne

The Aid Effectiveness Architecture In Africa: An Analysis Of Aid Structures In Kenya’S Agriculture Sector, Daniel Kipleel Borter

International Journal of African Development

This study examines in detail the development aid architecture in Kenya’s agriculture sector. The focus is on the mechanisms in place within the Kenyan government (and ministry of agriculture in particular), mechanisms among and within donor agencies, and overall coordination mechanisms that bring together the donors and the government. Findings show that coordination and harmonization activities among donors are yet to yield the desired outcomes such as the division of labor protocol and joint programming. Weaknesses are also observed on the government side where it appears authorities are yet to internalize PD concepts and interpret them to suit the ...


Does Privatization Improve Productivity? Empirical Evidence From Ethiopia, Tadesse Wodajo, Dawit Senbet 2017 Catholic University of America

Does Privatization Improve Productivity? Empirical Evidence From Ethiopia, Tadesse Wodajo, Dawit Senbet

International Journal of African Development

Theoretically, it is posited that privatization enables the private sector to play a dominant role in the economy by enhancing competition, productivity and efficiency. When evaluated using these criteria, privatization of the manufacturing industries has failed in Ethiopia. Our empirical results show that, at best, privatization did not result in improving productivity, and at worst, it led to a decline in productivity. We argue that the main reason for this outcome is the unique economic and business environment prevailing in Ethiopia, which does not allow the standard economic assumptions of market competition to hold. Ethiopia’s ‘private sector’ can be ...


Editorial Note, Sisay Asefa 2017 Western Michigan University

Editorial Note, Sisay Asefa

International Journal of African Development

No abstract provided.


International Journal Of African Development, Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2017 Western Michigan University

International Journal Of African Development, Vol. 4, Issue 2

International Journal of African Development

Complete issue of International Journal of African Development, Volume 4, Issue 2 - Fall 2017.


Decision-Making In Simultaneous Games: Reviewing The Past For The Future, Mohsen Ahmadian, Ehsan Elahi, Roger Blake 2017 University of Massachusetts Boston

Decision-Making In Simultaneous Games: Reviewing The Past For The Future, Mohsen Ahmadian, Ehsan Elahi, Roger Blake

Mohsen Ahmadian

This research reviews the prior behavioral economics studies in simultaneous games and behavioral operations management literature to propose some new research avenues in the field of behavioral operations management with a focus on simultaneous competitions. Findings of this study show that although many behavioral studies have been done, behavioral research on simultaneous competitions in operations management is rare. Review of the literature indicates that some contemporary trends are emerging in behavioral studies, so there are many opportunities for future research in this area. Moreover, this research highlights the importance of decision science as an interdisciplinary field of study, which in ...


Artists, Debt, And Global Activism, Mark W. Rectanus 2017 Iowa State University

Artists, Debt, And Global Activism, Mark W. Rectanus

Mark W. Rectanus

This article examines how artists, activism, and works of art may contribute to a more textured understanding of debt in contemporary society and culture. The diversity of aesthetic practices and range of strategic interventions in which artists are organizers and activists are manifest in the Global Ultra Luxury Faction (G.U.L.F.), advocacy initiatives by Working Artists and the Greater Economy (W.A.G.E.), and alternative, trans-local projects such as the Arts Collaboratory. These activist interventions provide the context for an examination of how artists have seized upon discourses related to debt and finance to produce works that ...


The Moral High Road In The Undercity: An Examination Of Ethics In A Mumbai Slum, Mary L. Bauer 2017 Sacred Heart University

The Moral High Road In The Undercity: An Examination Of Ethics In A Mumbai Slum, Mary L. Bauer

Mary L. Bauer

As of 2016, 1.6 billion people around the globe lacked proper shelter and of these, one billion lived in informal settlements, also called slums, according to data collected by the United Nations (UN-Habitat 2016). Investigative journalist Katherine Boo spent four years, between 2007 and 2011, interviewing and shadowing the residents of one such slum on the outskirts of Mumbai. Her goal was to draw attention to socio-economic inequality (Boo, 2014 pp. 247-248), but in the course of collecting data about the consequences of poverty and residents’ attempts to rise out of it, she also recorded information about their moral ...


The True Cost: The Bitter Truth Behind Fast Fashion, Zeynep Ozdamar-Ertekin 2017 Izmir University of Economics

The True Cost: The Bitter Truth Behind Fast Fashion, Zeynep Ozdamar-Ertekin

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

The True Cost is a documentary about the clothes we wear, the people who make them and the impact the industry has on the environment, the society, and the workers. It shows us the dark and grim side of global fast fashion supply chain. The review provides the main highlights of the film and summarizes the human, social and environmental costs of the industry. A number of counter-examples are included to show how people can make a difference and there can be a better way of making clothes. The current fast fashion model is all about profit. It does not ...


Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations (2013), Victoria L. Rodner 2017 University of Stirling

Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations (2013), Victoria L. Rodner

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

No abstract provided.


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