Economics Commons^™

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.

The Influence Of Food Recommendations: Evidence From A Randomized Field Experiment, Kamal Bookwala, Caleb Gallemore, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres

ESI Working Papers

We report results from a randomized field experiment conducted at two food festivals. Our primary aim is to assess the impact of two types of recommendations commonly observed in food settings: most popular and chef’s choice. Subjects select a cupcake from a binary menu. The two options, offered by the same bakery, are the best seller in the bakery and the baker’s recommended cupcake. Our treatments manipulate whether the recommendation is disclosed in tandem with the cupcakes in the menu. We find that the most popular is the only recommendation that statistically significantly increased consumers’ demand relative to …

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities’ implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 minutes and 5 minutes, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

Indispensable Homes In Third World Countries: Constructing A Home In Tijuana, Mexico, Myles Hubers

Construction Management

This project was created to explore a way in which poverty around the world could ultimately be reduced. The way in which this project intends to demonstrate a method used to reduce poverty is by building a home for a specific family in Tijuana, Mexico. In doing so, this home will act as a model home for a manual, comprised of steps that should be taken to construct similar homes throughout any third world country. The goal of this project is to highlight the importance of poverty in the world while also creating a buildable solution in order to reduce …

Essays On Random Social Choice Theory, Soumyarup Sadhukhan Dr.

Doctoral Theses

The thesis covers an extreme point characterization of strategy-proof and unanimous probabilistic rules over binary restricted domains. It shows that every strategy-proof and unanimous probabilistic rule on a binary restricted domain has binary support, and is a probabilistic mixture of strategy-proof and unanimous deterministic rules. Examples of binary restricted domains are single-dipped domains, which are of interest when considering the location of public bads. We also provide an extension to infinitely many alternatives. It also discusses that a random rule on a top-connected single-peaked domain is unanimous and strategy-proof if and only if it is a random min-max rule. As …

Kant And Lindahl, John E. Roemer, Joaquim Silvestre

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Wicksell (1896) and Lindahl (1919) analyzed the public provision of public goods through parliamentary negotiation. Roemer (2010, 2019) applied Kant’s (1785) categorical imperative to the private provision of public goods by voluntary contributions. They coincide in yielding efficient outcomes. Our focal equilibrium notions are the Multiplicative Kantian Equilibrium in the Kant-Roemer modelling and the Balanced Linear Cost Share Equilibrium for the Wicksell-Lindahl approach. It turns out that both are defined by the same individual optimization problem, and that costs are distributed according to marginal valuation, what we call the Lindahl Ratio. More general versions of the Wicksell-Lindahl and Kant-Roemer models …

Enhancing Data Generation For National Development In Nigeria: Institutional And Structural Issues1, Olu Ajakaiye

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this presentation, attention is focused on data generation for the purposes of reasoning, discussing and calculating the status, process and prospects of economic development. Economic development has also been defined in various ways. Again for the present purposes, economic development will be conceived as the process of economic growth and structural transformation (Ajakaiye, 2002). Clearly, data, as a gathered body of facts about the economy, is a basic requirement in the process of economic growth and transformation. Foremost, facts about the economy are necessary in order to appreciate the current state of the economy in terms of growth and …

Testing The Weak-Form Efficiency Market Hypothesis: Evidence From Nigerian Stock Market, Gimba K. Victor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In recent years, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has witnessed an unprecedented growth in market capitalization, membership, value and volume traded. By December 2007, the All Share Index has grown massively over 57,990.2 from 1113.4 in January 1993. This rising interest in investment opportunities in the NSE raises questions about its efficiency. This paper tests the Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis of the NSE by hypothesizing Normal distribution and Random walk of the return series. Daily and weekly All Share Index and five most traded and oldest bank stocks of the NSE are examined from January 2007 to December 2009 for …

A Business Cycle Model For Nigeria, Alege O. Philip

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The current global financial meltdown draws, once again, attention to the existence of business cycle fluctuations. Experts are of the view that the ongoing crisis is far deeper than the great depression of the 1930s. It should be recalled that the Keynes and Keynesianism was a response to that depression. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a small business cycle model in the spirit of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Nigeria designed to examine the sources of business cycles, and use the model for policy analysis. This paper considers the implications of three policy shocks …

Fiscal Federalism In Nigeria: A Cluster Analysis Of Revenue Allocation To States And Local Government Areas, 1999 – 2008, Sam O. Olofin, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Bello K. Ajide, Salisu A. Afees, Olalekan S. Akinola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Existing literature on revenue allocation in Nigeria shows more concern for merits and demerits of sharing principles and /or formulae. Several alternatives have been proposed and will continue to be developed to address the unending agitations from beneficiaries. Contrary however, this paper analyzes two items of revenue (statutory and VAT) shared among the states including FCT and all the Local Government Areas (LGAs) between May 1999 and December 2008. The net statutory allocation after deductions was also analyzed. Using Cluster analysis to evaluate revenue allocation in Nigeria, States and LGAs exhibiting similarity in revenue received were grouped and their common …

Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

It is widely believed that price stability promote long-term economic growth, whereas high inflation is inimical to growth. This paper utilized a quarterly time series data for the period 1981 – 2009 to estimate a threshold level of inflation for Nigeria. Using a threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001), the study estimated a threshold inflation level of 13 per cent for Nigeria. Below the threshold level, inflation has a mild effect on economic activities, while above it, the magnitude of the negative effect of inflation on growth was high. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and …

Reactions Of Stock Market To Monetary Policy Shocks During The Global Financial Crisis: The Nigerian Case, Aliyu Shehu U.R.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper seeks to assess the reactions of Nigeria’s stock market to monetary policy innovations during the period of global financial crisis on the basis of monthly data over the period January, 2007 to August, 2011. In particular, stock market return was regressed against major monetary policy instruments; money stock (M1, and M2) and monetary policy rate (MPR). The theoretical basis for the paper stems from the works of new classical macroeconomics and rational expectation hypothesis (REH). Lucas (1972) postulated that only the unanticipated monetary shock influences real economic activity. Using the GARCH by developed Engle and Bollerslev (1986) and …

Simple Sequential Procedure For Modeling Of Item Non-Response In Econometric Analysis: Application To Cv Survey Data, William M. Fonta, Elias T. Ayuk, Eme H. Ichoku

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Item non-response occurs when respondents fail to provide answers to some or all of the questions posed during survey interviews. The standard procedure is to exclude such responses from the econometric analysis. This may be appropriate if the sample included does not differ significantly from those excluded in the analysis. If this is not the case, the econometric analyst faces a sample selection bias problem. The aim of this paper is to provide further evidence using a simple sequential procedure to deal with the problem when using non-randomly selected samples in social science research. The procedure entails different levels of …

The Effects Of Renewable Portfolio Standards And The Deregulation Of Energy Markets On Electricity Prices, Amani Chaar

Spectra Undergraduate Research Journal

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) are public policies put into effect to help alleviate the harmful consequences of air pollution. Every state has a unique form of standards corresponding to their natural resources. More states have implemented the policy to increase the generation of renewable energy; however, many stand opposed to the policy in fear that it will increase electricity prices. The influence that RPS has on the price of electricity is not entirely understood. Previous literature confirms that RPS, on average, increases prices by three percent. This paper focuses on analyzing the effect of RPS on electricity rates over a …

Legal Financial Obligations & Rehabilitation: How The Ability To Pay Fines And Fees Disproportionately Affects Citizens Based On Socioeconomic Status, Bailey R. Code

University Honors Theses

In the United States, legal financial obligations (LFO's), also known as monetary sanctions or criminal justice financial obligations, refer to the fines and fees that result from an individual’s involvement in the criminal justice system. Today, these fines and fees have become the most common form of punishment used by the United States' legal system. This paper answers the following research question: How can the ability to pay legal financial obligations shape the rehabilitation of incarcerated people in the United States?

Legal Financial Obligations are harmful to those entangled within the justice system, as shown by their cyclical nature and …

What Is The Impact Of Economic Stimulus Measures On Covid-19 Mortality Rates?, Stephanie C. Santaguida

University Honors Theses

This inquiry seeks to establish the degree to which economic stimulus measures impact COVID-19 mortality rates. There appears to be an inverse correlation between domestic social spending and COVID-19 deaths. While confirmed infections are the most reliable predictor of mortality rates, trust in government is an important factor to consider when public compliance with health directives determines the degree of epidemiological risk in each country. Although most economists agree that stimulus monies directed to low-income individuals to prevent financial collapse were appropriate, there is some dissention with regard to the type and size of such cash infusions. Nonetheless, behavioral economists …

Comments On Three Papers On Labor Market Effects Of Opportunity Zones, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Hemp Production Network Effects: Are Producers Tipped Toward Suboptimal Varietal Selection By Their Neighbors?, Tanner Mccarty, Jeffrey Young

Journal of Applied Farm Economics

The 2018 farm bill removed industrial hemp from the Schedule 1 Controlled Substance List. In response, states scrambled to enact hemp legislation. Some hemp flower producers report their hemp fields were cross- pollinated by a neighbor growing a different hemp cultivar. For hemp flower crops, cross- pollination reduces cannabinoid concentration levels within the flower; these concentration levels dictate flower price. We show that in a repeated game, once a sufficiently large percentage of growers decide to plant hemp fiber/seed crops, cross-pollination forces flower growers to convert to fiber/seed to avoid the negative network externality. Over time, a stable, suboptimal Nash …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 24, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.72% during January 2021. The indicator has risen during each of the last four months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand solidly through mid- 2021. In January, the leading indicator primarily rose due to strong business expectations. Respondents to the January Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Overall, three of the six components of the leading indicator improved during January. Airline passenger counts rose modestly, while the value of the U.S. dollar fell. A weaker dollar is positive for Nebraska businesses which compete in international …

The Biden Climate Plan, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

President Obama had an aggressive climate plan that included regulation of carbon emissions from power plants. Hillary Clinton would have continued with aggressive policies to slow and reverse global warming but was defeated by Donald Trump in 2016. President Trump sought to undo most of President Obama’s climate policies and pursued a fossil-fuel friendly energy and climate policy. The 2020 election of President Biden marks a resumption of ambitious policies to slow and ultimately reverse global warming. This newsletter identifies three major policies the Biden administration is expected to pursue and attempts to explain what policy implication might look like.